HL Tourney

[historyman]

So I was curious to see how Detroit could end up without a bye. I think I've conceived an excellent and very reasonable plan that puts Detroit on the 3 line. I've added what seed they would end up with this scenario, they are currently sorted by their current seed.

Team	Opp #1	Result	Opp #2	Result
#1 Valparaiso	YSU	W	@UWGB	L
#3 Detroit	Loyola	W	@UIC	L
#4 UWGB	UWM	W	Valpo	W
#2 Wright St.	@UIC	W	YSU	W
#6 YSU	@Valpo	L	@WSU	L
#5 UIC	WSU	L	Detroit	W
#7 Cleveland St.	@Loyola	W
#8 Loyola	@Detroit	L	CSU	L
#9 UWM	@UWGB	L

After the way Bradley came back to beat UIC at the Pavilion in their bracketbuster game I just don't see Detroit losing to UIC.

[Kyle321n]

After the way Bradley came back to beat UIC at the Pavilion in their bracketbuster game I just don't see Detroit losing to UIC.

Detroit will be playing their 3rd game in 5 days, in Detroit, Philly and then Chicago. UIC will have a home game Tuesday and then Detroit on Saturday. Detroit will be exhausted from a lot of travel, UIC will be getting home cooking, and sleeping in their own beds.  I predict a very tired Junior and company will look sluggish and lose it in the end against UIC.

Um, you'll have to construct a scenario in which they get the 4 seed in order to deny them a bye.

Detroit loses to both Loyola and UIC.
WSU beats both UIC and YSU.
GB beats Valpo and Milwaukee.

This would result in:

1. Valpo    11-5 or 12-4
2. WSU     11-5
3. GB        11-5
4. Detroit   10-6

4 out of 256 chance (Tuesday's game at the ARC and the Loyola-CSU game don't matter).

I guess I meant something that would prevent them from getting the 2 seed so they have to play 3 games at the ARC. We really want them to play 3 but if there's still possibilities for them to finish 4th and have to play 4 then by all means, GO THAT SCENARIO!

[KL31NY]

Anyone know Juwan Howard Jr.'s status? Without his services (hip) and no bench scoring against a good Wichita State team Saturday, it seems Detroit could be in for a tough time if the circumstances remain the same, regardless of the level of competition. Three games in five days at the end of a long season is tough even at full strength

[historyman]

Detroit will be playing their 3rd game in 5 days, in Detroit, Philly and then Chicago. UIC will have a home game Tuesday and then Detroit on Saturday. Detroit will be exhausted from a lot of travel, UIC will be getting home cooking, and sleeping in their own beds.  I predict a very tired Junior and company will look sluggish and lose it in the end against UIC.

I still don't see it. UIC has certainly had very good chances to win important games and they haven't done it. The Northwestern win was UIC surprising the Wildcats and Northwestern playing poorly on another team's floor. The talent level difference is so great between UIC and Detroit. 

[StlVUFan]

After the way Bradley came back to beat UIC at the Pavilion in their bracketbuster game I just don't see Detroit losing to UIC.

Detroit will be playing their 3rd game in 5 days, in Detroit, Philly and then Chicago. UIC will have a home game Tuesday and then Detroit on Saturday. Detroit will be exhausted from a lot of travel, UIC will be getting home cooking, and sleeping in their own beds.  I predict a very tired Junior and company will look sluggish and lose it in the end against UIC.

Um, you'll have to construct a scenario in which they get the 4 seed in order to deny them a bye.

Detroit loses to both Loyola and UIC.
WSU beats both UIC and YSU.
GB beats Valpo and Milwaukee.

This would result in:

1. Valpo    11-5 or 12-4
2. WSU     11-5
3. GB        11-5
4. Detroit   10-6

4 out of 256 chance (Tuesday's game at the ARC and the Loyola-CSU game don't matter).

I guess I meant something that would prevent them from getting the 2 seed so they have to play 3 games at the ARC. We really want them to play 3 but if there's still possibilities for them to finish 4th and have to play 4 then by all means, GO THAT SCENARIO!

According to my spreadsheet, your scenario does just that.  Actually, the CSU-Loyola game doesn't matter, but all the rest of it is necessary.   2 out of 256 chance.

Obviously the overwhelming majority of the scenarios have Detroit as the 2 seed.

[agibson]

So, what do we know, with eight teams having one game left to play?  Finally the calculus starts to seem tractable.

Valpo clinched the #1 seed tonight.
Detroit clinched #2.
Green Bay can earn the #3 seed if they beat us.  Otherwise, if they lose and Wright State wins (hosting YSU), Green Bay falls to #4.
Wright State will do no worse than #4.
UIC and YSU are currently tied for fifth, with UIC hosting Detroit and YSU playing at Wright State. If they stay tied, YSU has the tiebreaker with their victory over us.
If Loyola can hold court against Cleveland State, they'll have the tiebreaker and take the #7 seed.  Otherwise, it's Cleveland State.
Milwaukee's "clinched" #9.  And is the only team done playing until the conference tournament.

So, all that said, #3-#8 are all still up in the air.

Detroit has to play at Temple Thursday.

And, all four of Saturday's conference games have implications for HL tournament seeding.

Who would you like to play in the semi-finals?

[StlVUFan]

UIC and YSU are currently tied for fifth, with UIC hosting Detroit and YSU playing at Wright State. If they stay tied, YSU has the tiebreaker with their victory over us.

You were doing good up until this point.  UIC wins the tiebreaker because they swept YSU.

Everything else was spot on

[agibson]

Finally the calculus starts to seem tractable.

Hmm... well, I did say _seem_ tractable!

[valpotx]

I would rather see WSU than GB in the semis.  GB can surprise us at home, whereas WSU really won't.  I also want GB to beat Detroit in the other semi 

[wh]

I would rather see WSU than GB in the semis.  GB can surprise us at home, whereas WSU really won't.  I also want GB to beat Detroit in the other semi 

I agree.  Nothing against WSU.  They've had a great season, but they don't seem to have anyone who can stop KVW.  GB's bigs match up better.

[historyman]

Green Bay can earn the #3 seed if they beat us.  Otherwise, if they lose and Wright State wins (hosting YSU), Green Bay falls to #4.

So Green Bay is playing for a single bye and to possibly play 2 games at the HL tourney in Valpo and possibly the HL championship game most likely on the road. GB as the #3 seed would play at Valpo with their first HL tourney game against the winner of the #7 vs #6 game on Friday, March 8.

If the Phoenix lose to Valpo, and WSU wins, GB would have an extra game at home against Milwaukee that GB must win to continue in the HL tournament as the #4 seed. (Seed #9 plays at seed #4 on Tuesday. March 5) Then when GB beats Milwaukee they would then play the winner of the #5 vs #8 game at Valpo on Friday. March 8.

Valpo, on the other hand, is playing for the right to claim a solo HL title and not tie Detroit for first place.

Seems to me the motivation is far more in Valpo's corner because I know for sure that the players don't want to share a title with those lowly and unsportsmanlike Titan players.   

[LaPorteAveApostle]

I would rather see WSU than GB in the semis. 

True, but ironically, while we need to beat GB for our seed's sake (and yes to avoid sharing), which only makes it more likely that we see GB again.

The only outcome that would be acceptable is that YSU beat WSU and then when we win we'll get a much easier semi.

[crusadermoe]

I do think you want Detroit playing Green Bay in the semis.  Green Bay sure screwed up losing in OT at home to Wright State.  It's nice to finally be able to start speculating without wondering if we will somehow drop a seed or two.
As it turns out, that VU win on the road vs. Detroit saved the whole league from having to play the tourney in Detroit.

[covufan]

If I'm a player, I would want to BEAT Detroit at home!

[valpo84]

Folks who think they may be coming in for Saturday HL Tourney games (and are Valpo fans), still plenty of rooms available at the Country Inn & Suites. Lets fill the ARC and the local hotels.

[StlVUFan]

Folks who think they may be coming in for Saturday HL Tourney games (and are Valpo fans), still plenty of rooms available at the Country Inn & Suites. Lets fill the ARC and the local hotels.

Bonus: I get free housing when I come to Valpo, so that's one more room available

[ValpoHoops]

STL, please correct if these are wrong, but I think they are good...


#1 - Valpo
#2 - Detroit

#3/#4 - UWGB/WSU (WSU owns tiebreak based on season sweep)...tie only happens with VU WIN + WSU WIN

#5/#6 - UIC/YSU (UIC owns tiebreak based on season sweep)...tie only happens if BOTH WIN OR BOTH LOSE

#7/#8 - LOY/CSU...tie only happens with LOY WIN OVER CSU (which would also give LOY the tiebreak based on season sweep)

#9 - Milwaukee

[agibson]

This matches the STL-corrected version of what I posted here two days ago.  So, I think you're good.

[ValpoHoops]

This matches the STL-corrected version of what I posted here two days ago

OK...I tried to make it nice and simple for myself...I confuse easily. 

[StlVUFan]

Yeah, Tuesday night really took all the fun out tiebreaker analysis for masochists like me

[Valpo89]

Regarding Detroit winning on Tuesday - other than the possibility of VU/Detroit tying for the title and wanting to Detroit to lose for that reason (other than hatred) - I'm pretty sure that it's in Valpo's best interest for Detroit to be the 2 or 3 seed, correct? Falling to the No. 4 seed, although it means more games, also would have meant a Valpo-Detroit 1 vs. 4 matchup on Saturday. I don't think anyone would have wanted that.

[agibson]

Falling to the No. 4 seed, although it means more games, also would have meant a Valpo-Detroit 1 vs. 4 matchup on Saturday. I don't think anyone would have wanted that.

I don't know.  Playing them on Saturday means their second game in two days, and they'll probably be generally less rested (coming off a fairly busy two weeks, etc.).  Playing them on Tuesday _probably_ means Detroit's better rested.

We're likely going to have to get through them sometime.  I don't know how much it matters if it's on Saturday or Tuesday.

[oklahomamick]

Best case is that we beat GB and WSU loses.  Therefore, GB still gets the 3 seed and knocks off Detroit. 

[valpo4life]

Regarding Detroit winning on Tuesday - other than the possibility of VU/Detroit tying for the title and wanting to Detroit to lose for that reason (other than hatred) - I'm pretty sure that it's in Valpo's best interest for Detroit to be the 2 or 3 seed, correct? Falling to the No. 4 seed, although it means more games, also would have meant a Valpo-Detroit 1 vs. 4 matchup on Saturday. I don't think anyone would have wanted that.

Detroit already clinched the 2 seed with their win over Loyola. If we see Detroit, it will be for some revenge on Tuesday night in the finals

[crusadermoe]

All the seeding scenarios are now on the Horizon League website.     

Now that Detroit clinched the #2 I don't think it matters who they play in the semis.   Now they won't have fatigue in the semis or overlook the quarters team.