HL Tourney

oklahomamick · February 20, 2013, 11:00:19 AM

Two more games left. Pomeroy predicts that we will lose one more HL game but still capture the 1 seed. Would be nice if Detriot dropped to the 3 and played one more game.

agibson · February 20, 2013, 11:20:18 AM

What's the claim now? We've locked up at least the third seed? And, is one more win, of either type, enough to click the first seed? I had a look at the combinations, but didn't quite seal the deal.

The win over Loyola was enough for RPI forecast to push us back ahead of Detroit
http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/ct/Valparaiso.html

They forecast Detroit will end the season (including conference tourney) with a significantly better RPI (56 to our 79), but that we're now, again, somewhat more likely to get the auto-bid (49% chance to Detroit's 38%).

StlVUFan · February 20, 2013, 11:25:14 AM

Quote from: agibson on February 20, 2013, 11:20:18 AM
What's the claim now? We've locked up at least the third seed? And, is one more win, of either type, enough to click the first seed? I had a look at the combinations, but didn't quite seal the deal.

The win over Loyola was enough for RPI forecast to push us back ahead of Detroit
http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/ct/Valparaiso.html

They forecast Detroit will end the season (including conference tourney) with a significantly better RPI (56 to our 79), but that we're now, again, somewhat more likely to get the auto-bid (49% chance to Detroit's 38%).

Yes, we've locked up the 3rd seed because the only way we end up in 4th place is by being tied with WSU for 3rd and 4th place at 11-5 and we own the tiebreaker there.

If we beat YSU, we clinch the 1 seed, no matter what anyone else does. If we lose to YSU and beat GB, we need a little help if Detroit wins out -- we'd need WSU to win one of their last 3.

There are, believe it or not, 3 scenarios where RPI would decide the 1 seed, but I think it requires Valpo to lose out in order for that to come into play.

valpotx · February 20, 2013, 11:51:56 AM

In short, beat YSU, and save the Crusader

StlVUFan · February 20, 2013, 12:29:55 PM

Quote from: valpotx on February 20, 2013, 11:51:56 AM
In short, beat YSU, and save the Crusader

YUP

agibson · February 20, 2013, 12:52:13 PM

Save the Crusader?

valpotx · February 20, 2013, 01:06:10 PM

Heroes reference

crusadermoe · February 20, 2013, 02:28:46 PM

I would bet that our RPI went up after St Louis beat VCU. It turns out that SLU and New Mexico were "good losses" even if we were at full strength.
The Nebraska, Oakland and Loyola losses still grate on me. But Loyola was the only embarrassing one.

valpotx · February 20, 2013, 02:59:11 PM

Big game tonight in WSU vs. CSU. If WSU wins at CSU, and then we win at home against YSU, our #1 is clinched.

agibson · February 20, 2013, 03:22:16 PM

That's not what StLVU said!

StlVUFan · February 20, 2013, 03:28:04 PM

Quote from: agibson on February 20, 2013, 03:22:16 PM
That's not what StLVU said!

I didn't quite hammer that point home enough to make me believe I realized that, but you're right. Assuming my spreadsheet doesn't have an error, as long as we beat YSU, the 1 seed is ours, regardless of what happens tonight. Maybe after last night, we don't need WSU anymore (if we beat YSU). I'm pretty sure there are other cases where we still do need WSU to win at least once.

agibson · February 21, 2013, 09:16:06 AM

Jim, I only just noticed your post from before last night's games on your blog.

It's good fun to read!

Quote
Detroit has a 112 out of 1024 chance (10.9 %) of getting the 1 seed, while Valpo has a 906 out of 1024 chance (88.5 %) of getting the 1 seed.

Hopefully the reader has in mind that these percentages are assuming both teams in each game have an equal chance of winning. Which presumably is sometimes pretty far from the truth.

Only 256 possibilities left!

StlVUFan · February 21, 2013, 01:03:30 PM

Quote from: agibson on February 21, 2013, 09:16:06 AM
Jim, I only just noticed your post from before last night's games on your blog.

It's good fun to read!

Quote
Detroit has a 112 out of 1024 chance (10.9 %) of getting the 1 seed, while Valpo has a 906 out of 1024 chance (88.5 %) of getting the 1 seed.

Hopefully the reader has in mind that these percentages are assuming both teams in each game have an equal chance of winning. Which presumably is sometimes pretty far from the truth.

Only 256 possibilities left!

LOL, if anyone ever mistakes me for a pundit or a prognosticator I'll have to set them straight I guess

I would guess that most pundits would have no problem with the fact that if the tourney is held in the ARC, the most likely 2 seed is Detroit. However, they should also look at the YSU and Green Bay games as definitely loseable.

It is gut-check time for this team from here on out. They are vulnerable, though not overly so. Frankly, I always thought those Butler teams two and three years ago were vulnerable. They rarely had an easy HL game and while they occasionally did stumble, there were plenty more opportunities for them to and they didn't. They gutted it out more often than not. They were far from invincible.

StlVUFan · February 21, 2013, 01:07:23 PM

Quote from: agibson on February 21, 2013, 09:16:06 AM
Jim, I only just noticed your post from before last night's games on your blog.

It's good fun to read!

Quote
Detroit has a 112 out of 1024 chance (10.9 %) of getting the 1 seed, while Valpo has a 906 out of 1024 chance (88.5 %) of getting the 1 seed.

Hopefully the reader has in mind that these percentages are assuming both teams in each game have an equal chance of winning. Which presumably is sometimes pretty far from the truth.

Only 256 possibilities left!

By the way, Detroit now has a 24 out of 255 chance (9.4 %) of getting the 1 seed, with 1 scenario unsolvable until March 3rd (RPI tiebreaker).

agibson · February 21, 2013, 02:23:33 PM

Quote from: StlVUFan on February 21, 2013, 01:07:23 PMBy the way, Detroit now has a 24 out of 255 chance (9.4 %) of getting the 1 seed, with 1 scenario unsolvable until March 3rd (RPI tiebreaker).

Last night's games seem not to have much affected the RPI forecast predictions (Detroit a 40% chance of autobid, Valpo 45%). Most of the probability may already be with the tournament taking place at VU.

LaPorteAveApostle · February 21, 2013, 02:46:37 PM

Quote from: agibson on February 21, 2013, 02:23:33 PMMost of the probability may already be with the tournament taking place at VU.

I don't think they take that into consideration--I think they calculate all conf. tourney games as neutral-site scored?

agibson · February 21, 2013, 02:59:29 PM

Quote from: LaPorteAveApostle on February 21, 2013, 02:46:37 PM
Quote from: agibson on February 21, 2013, 02:23:33 PMMost of the probability may already be with the tournament taking place at VU.

I don't think they take that into consideration--I think they calculate all conf. tourney games as neutral-site scored?

Ah? Could be. I didn't look at it so closely.

From their possible records at the end of the season, it looks like they _do_ take into account the number of games you'll play in the conference tourney. So, being the #1 or #2 seed still has an effect, even if it doesn't matter much _which_ seed you are. (I suppose it might well still affect who you play, which has RPI consequences. Makes you wonder how carefully they put the tiebreakers in for every conference, etc.)

VULB#62 · February 23, 2013, 10:38:19 AM

New York Post article on VU and Butler in this year's NCAA (copied from the VU FB Twitter site).

If the Crusaders get out of the HLT the Post pics us to match up with Butler in the first round.

http://m.nypost.com/;s=dfXcLMkZPfAmmfBiyEjSU16;cookieEnabled=0/f/mobile/sports/college/basketball/good_dogs_IaEDaEDPl1qB7xq1zyp7NI

HC · February 23, 2013, 10:45:21 AM

That is a fun scenario to think about

vu84v2 · February 23, 2013, 10:46:01 AM

If Valpo makes the NCAA tournament, it will be either a 13 or 14 seed...and my guess is that Butler will ultimately be a 5 or 6 seed. So a Butler matchup is unlikely. I really don't want to see a Valpo-Kansas matchup - but I think Kansas has righted the ship and will be no less than a 2 seed (note that if Valpo played Kansas, it would be in Kansas City).

LaPorteAveApostle · February 23, 2013, 11:13:31 AM

Butler a 10 or higher. Said it before, but as setshot (or my dad too) would put it, BOOK IT

oklahomamick · February 23, 2013, 10:20:14 PM

Quote from: oklahomamick on February 20, 2013, 11:00:19 AMWould be nice if Detriot dropped to the 3 and played one more game.

Juwuan Jr. didn't play today. This makes the rotation even thinner.

Kyle321n · February 25, 2013, 01:49:42 PM

So I was curious to see how Detroit could end up without a bye. I think I've conceived an excellent and very reasonable plan that puts Detroit on the 3 line. I've added what seed they would end up with this scenario, they are currently sorted by their current seed.

Team	Opp #1	Result	Opp #2	Result
#1 Valparaiso	YSU	W	@UWGB	L
#3 Detroit	Loyola	W	@UIC	L
#4 UWGB	UWM	W	Valpo	W
#2 Wright St.	@UIC	W	YSU	W
#6 YSU	@Valpo	L	@WSU	L
#5 UIC	WSU	L	Detroit	W
#7 Cleveland St.	@Loyola	W
#8 Loyola	@Detroit	L	CSU	L
#9 UWM	@UWGB	L

LaPorteAveApostle · February 25, 2013, 03:33:35 PM

Very good post! And yes, reasonable if not probable.

Although Stl will have to weigh in to make it official

StlVUFan · February 25, 2013, 03:55:38 PM

Um, you'll have to construct a scenario in which they get the 4 seed in order to deny them a bye.

Detroit loses to both Loyola and UIC.
WSU beats both UIC and YSU.
GB beats Valpo and Milwaukee.

This would result in:

1. Valpo 11-5 or 12-4
2. WSU 11-5
3. GB 11-5
4. Detroit 10-6

4 out of 256 chance (Tuesday's game at the ARC and the Loyola-CSU game don't matter).

HL Tourney

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