NCAA Seeding (Updated through 3/16)

[70zboy]

Valpo certainly got a bad seed. The two 13's that raise potential questioning are South Dakota St and Montana. Valpo's RPI & BPI 59-61, South Dakota 63-109, and Montana 76-131! South Dakota does have 4 wins against the Top 100 and one (as mentioned above) against a top 50. Both Valpo and Montana have just 2 wins against the top 100 and none agianst the top 50. How does Montana get a 13? Lunardi had them at a 15! MSU will be a tough if not impossible task. We would've had a shot winning at the 13.

[LaPorteAveApostle]

What makes it worse is the actual "non-s curve s-curve" list, which has Montana as lowest 13, then Davidson as highest 14, then us.

You could make a case for Davidson over us, but think how Davidson must feel right now:

"WTF(EATHERS)?  DID WE OR DID WE NOT BEAT MONTANA HEAD TO HEAD?  WHAT GOOD IS THE FREAKING BRACKETBUSTER THEN!?!?!?!"

We are RPI-wise ahead of all 13s but LaSalle, last at-large.

Guess they were serious when they were talking about "rpi isn't important any more"

[LaPorteAveApostle]

one last beat of the drum:



from CrashingTheDance, a really good and reliable site ("Crashing the Dance uses artificial intelligence to learn from previous seasons and predict which teams the committee will select.").

the number after the conference is the inverse of the PREDICTED seed (i.e. 1 = 16 seed, 2=15, 3=14, etc.).  We are much closer to a 13 than a 14; then when you consider where we are, the 53 is good enough for the 3rd of 4 13 seeds.

after W-L is sagarin, then poll rank, if applicable, and finally RPI.






TURRIBLE

[vu72]

When you think about it, not only did we get the shaft on the seeding but we aslos got it as a result of the bracket folks giving MSU a "home game". Look at the overall braket, and see who else got a "home game" in the first two rounds.  Kansas (a #1) plays at Kansas City.  Ohio State (a #2) plays at Dayton and Louisville (a #1) plays at Lexington.

See any other #3's???  Now we need to just go in and win.  That will make some predictors (none of which give us any chance) look really bad!

[vuweathernerd]

When you think about it, not only did we get the shaft on the seeding but we aslos got it as a result of the bracket folks giving MSU a "home game". Look at the overall braket, and see who else got a "home game" in the first two rounds.  Kansas (a #1) plays at Kansas City.  Ohio State (a #2) plays at Dayton and Louisville (a #1) plays at Lexington.

See any other #3's???  Now we need to just go in and win.  That will make some predictors (none of which give us any chance) look really bad!

lexington will be a home game for the cardinals if they can keep big blue nation at bay. not sure there's a more hostile city towards louisville in the whole country.

[KL31NY]

Apostle, here's the most obvious .gif you should have used

[agibson]

It would be amusing to find e.g. Montana and Davidson boards to see what they think.

[agibson]

Here's a start:

From the Montana Kaimin (student newspaper)
http://www.montanakaimin.com/sports/article_62392246-8f51-11e2-8f40-0019bb30f31a.html

Many experts predicted Montana would be a low seed, but the Grizzlies ended up one spot higher than their No. 14 seed in last year's tournament, which saw No. 3 Wisconsin easily beat Montana 73-49 in the second round.

Head coach Wayne Tinkle said Montana's close games with some of the top Mid-Major programs in the nation like South Dakota State and Davidson, as well as their first game against Colorado State, helped the Grizzlies snag a higher seed.

"I think that went into the seed that we got," said Tinkle, whose teams are 0-2 in the tournament. "Some of the early predictions were 15 seed, that probably would have got my hair off a little bit, but I think that's a good seed and it's going to be a challenge."

That's their head coach suggesting that close _losses_ to midmajors like Davidson and South Dakota State (and against Colorado State) helped get them their 13.

From the Billings Gazette
http://billingsgazette.com/sports/college/big-sky-conference/university-of-montana/basketball-mens/griz-th-in-the-east-to-play-syracuse/article_d9487b0b-7f3e-5b29-a7e8-47cd32bf99a7.html
Tinkle again (I don't envy his days in the school yard)

I thought they showed great respect by giving us a 13 seed

[valpotx]

MT is the biggest joke of a 13 seed.  Their schedule is pitiful, with 20 games against the stellar Big Sky competition.  Yes, they went 19-1, but it is the BIG SKY! 

[Valposter]

When you think about it, not only did we get the shaft on the seeding but we aslos got it as a result of the bracket folks giving MSU a "home game". Look at the overall braket, and see who else got a "home game" in the first two rounds.  Kansas (a #1) plays at Kansas City.  Ohio State (a #2) plays at Dayton and Louisville (a #1) plays at Lexington.

See any other #3's???  Now we need to just go in and win.  That will make some predictors (none of which give us any chance) look really bad!

There are two programs the NCAA loves and will favor them in any way possible any way thy can:  Michigan State with Izzo and Duke with Coach K.  Preferential seeding.  Tournament home games.  Friendly ref crews.  Get ready for that Big 10 ref crew on Thursday.........we won't be getting any calls all night.   

[agibson]

Someone else may have mentioned this earlier.  But, really all I've got that can put Montana ahead of Davidson and Valpo is bad losses.

We have 222 Loyola, 188 YSU, 152 Oakland, and 103 Nebraska.

Davidson has 292 Chatanooga, 264 Georgia Southern, and 206 Drexel.

Montana only has 166 San Francisco.  Next is Weber State 85.

But, man. _19 wins_ against the RPI 201 and worse.  Only four against teams better than that.

Can they really hold Loyola so strongly against us?

But, I'm drawing a bit of a blank...

[valpotx]

Consider the fact that we beat the ever living crap out of GSU as well versus Davidson's loss to them...but MT has absolutely no leg to stand on in being a 13 over us

[agibson]

Looks like they were expecting a 14 seed, more or less, while hoping for better (and fearing for worse). 

I was foolish enough, or bold enough, to ask them what they thought of their seed vs. Valpo and Davidson.  We'll see how they respond

[valpotx]

I bet that they will feel that it is deserved because of their record...while completely ignoring 19 wins against sub 200 RPI teams 

[agibson]

26-7 vs. their 25-6?
(Or 25-7 D1 vs. their 23-6)

I guess their percentages are _slightly_ better.  And, it may easily have been only a slight difference in the eyes of the committee.

I think it's _entirely_ possible that they didn't look at seeds as carefully as we did, or at least that they no longer care to talk about it

[historyman]

I bet that they will feel that it is deserved because of their record...while completely ignoring 19 wins against sub 200 RPI teams 

Now that is putting words in other people's mouths.

[agibson]

Seriously. I'm sure they were proud of, and counted, every one of those wins.

[wh]

When you think about it, not only did we get the shaft on the seeding but we aslos got it as a result of the bracket folks giving MSU a "home game". Look at the overall braket, and see who else got a "home game" in the first two rounds.  Kansas (a #1) plays at Kansas City.  Ohio State (a #2) plays at Dayton and Louisville (a #1) plays at Lexington.

See any other #3's???  Now we need to just go in and win.  That will make some predictors (none of which give us any chance) look really bad!

You hit the nail right on the head.  Once the selection committee decided to kiss Michigan State's butt with a "home game" (the only 3 as you point out, and 1 of only 4 of the top 12 teams), our fate was decided.  The difference between a 13 and a 14 seed is huge for any Mid Major.  Playing on a truly neutral court in a game where you are a big underdog as opposed to playing in the other team's own back yard is just as important.  We got screwed on both counts.  The bracketology experts had it the other way and I'm sure they are as surprised as we are. The bottom line is we did everything we needed to do (on a comparative basis - which is all that counts) to earn a 13 seed, and instead the committee subjectively gave it to a lesser team.  Valpo basketball and the Horizon League have been completely disrespected.   

[ValpoHoops]

Honestly, if we want to complain about seed/opponent, I think we have a beef. Site, I don't think we should really be upset. The committee "protects" the top four seeds in each region geographically as best they can. Michigan State is a 3 seed, so they are protected....that's how it works. Its not the committee bending over for them and giving them a home game (can't believe I'm defending them...but I don't think they got this wrong).

All four #1's are at the closest site.
Three #2's are at the closest site (Miami is not...Dayton is about 200 miles closer)
Two #3 seeds are at the closest site (Marquette [Dayton about 60 miles closer] & Florida [Dayton about 100 miles closer])
Two #4 seeds are at the closest site (Syracuse, St. Louis...obviously)

The Miami and Florida ones make sense...stay in the south. Syracuse and St. Louis? Well, they were the last two, so they got what was left.

Michigan State is the "FIFTH" closest team to their home site, of the top 16, but 11 of the 16 are at the closest site and the others all make pretty logical sense.

1 Louisville (Lexington, KY - 77 miles)
1 Gonzaga (Salt Lake City, UT - 721 miles)
1 Indiana (Dayton, OH - 165 miles)
1 Kansas (Kansas City, MO - 39 miles)

2 Georgetown (Philadelphia, PA - 136 miles)
2 Miami (Austin, TX - 1355 miles)
2 Ohio State (Dayton, OH - 71 miles)
2 Duke (Philadelphia, PA - 399 miles)

3 Florida (Austin, TX - 1022 miles)
3 Marquette (Lexington, KY - 466 miles)
3 New Mexico (Salt Lake City, UT - 620 miles)
3 Michigan State (Auburn Hills, MI - 82 miles)

4 St. Louis (San Jose, CA - 2090 miles)
4 Kansas State (Kansas City, MO - 120 miles)
4 Michigan (Auburn Hills, MI - 51 miles)
4 Syracuse (San Jose, CA - 2829 miles)



The matchup sucks, but I'd rather be there than out in San Jose....we can all get to the game in Detroit.

[ValpoHoops]

Still pissed about our seed (I can't really write out what I think...I might have to ban myself if I wrote it), just don't think the location/opponent combination is that big of a deal

[LaPorteAveApostle]

great post, 'hoops.  thanks for crunching the numbers.  i love stuff like that.

[LaPorteAveApostle]

Let's take this in a happier direction.

Ironically for someone who quit facebook, I was clued into this interesting site:
https://www.facebook.com/notes/sports-on-facebook/march-madness-fandom-on-facebook/10151473245234487

Over 1 million US Facebook users have liked a page for one of the 68 teams attending the tournament. By mapping out where these fans currently live we can see how regions and states will be dividing their loyalty and filling out their brackets this March.

here's our regional to save you time:


wish these blew up bigger, because they had to pick similar colors, didn't they?  like take this one of just Cinderellas.  I got all excited because I thought we were huge down here and I didn't even know I had this support group...and then i realized it was frickin FGCU:


of note is the pocket of support, thanks to 'nerd and others, in N Dakota.  (Also the lack of support for SDSU?!?)...

..but that can't be FGCU with all that support everywhere, huh?  look at the brown! 

maybe they should have distinguished our color with the Hint Of Lime.  ...okok just a bad joke let's not start all that up again here.

[okinawatyphoon]

Let's take this in a happier direction.

Ironically for someone who quit facebook, I was clued into this interesting site:
https://www.facebook.com/notes/sports-on-facebook/march-madness-fandom-on-facebook/10151473245234487

Over 1 million US Facebook users have liked a page for one of the 68 teams attending the tournament. By mapping out where these fans currently live we can see how regions and states will be dividing their loyalty and filling out their brackets this March.

of note is the pocket of support, thanks to 'nerd and others, in N Dakota.  (Also the lack of support for SDSU?!?)...

..but that can't be FGCU with all that support everywhere, huh?  look at the brown! 

maybe they should have distinguished our color with the Hint Of Lime.  ...okok just a bad joke let's not start all that up again here.

Yep, that's us up there in the lone brown county in North Dakota! I was just telling weathernerd that Ward County is dedicated to Valpo! Pretty awesome. 

[LaPorteAveApostle]

also, most of america will be rooting for us, aside from large chunks of Montana and Idaho and a couple counties around lansing

[valpotx]

It looks like the only brown for FGCU is in FL, the rest is our shade.  Good to be one of the top underdogs!

Complete BS that my area apparently likes crappy Liberty