3/21, 12:15pm ET: NCAA First Game: (14) Valpo v. (3) Michigan State Game Thread

[valpotx]

Complaining about our seed/opponent isn't going to do any good.  WHo is actually going?  I will be there cheering our guys on.  I hope they believe they can win more then the rest of you guys.

Looking at prices, it will only be $300-$400 for me to fly there...does that seem worth it to you guys?  I absolutely hate the city of Detroit, so this is a hard choice lol

[valpospartan]

Million dollar question #3:  Who is valpospartan going to root for? 

First of all let me say that I hate this pairing.
That said, as much of a fan of VU that I am (season ticket holder for decades), I am a Michigan State University graduate and I will never root against them.  Did I mention that I hate the pairing?  I will be watching with sadness in my heart.

[wh]

Does anyone know anything about tickets?

[agibson]

I'm surprised there's nothing up on the website.

They were "selling" them at the selection show party, but I think they were basically just taking reservations (with credit card info, and a commitment to buy them if available, etc.).

I'd call them up first thing tomorrow, they open at 9 AM central.

877-MY-VU-TIX (877-698-8849) or 219-464-5233

For students, they're on sale at the union, tonight and tomorrow.

[agibson]

Or, you can get them from ticketmaster now (not in the Valpo section, say, but you'd know you had them).

http://www.ticketmaster.com/venueartist/65562/1239566

Looks to be from $150 for... I guess the whole Thursday-Saturday event?

And from $57 for the first Thursday session?  (One game?  Not sure.)

[Smj]

I really want to go...   Want this team to know they have people rooting for then...  Wish I could "show" my support but i cant make it.   

Couldn't ask for a better group to represent Valpo.  (I have said it before but this is a quality group of young adults - that play basketball.)   I would definitely go if i could - since i can't - i will be sitting in front of a tv....

* my wife, an elementary teacher, said she is going to find a way to do her math lesson on game stats so that she can watch - now that is a dedicated fan.

[agibson]

Another couple of facts to supplement those already given.

This is Izzo's 16th straight NCAA appearance: they went to the NIT his first two season as head coach.

Their first round losses were to #7 seed NC State, #10 seed Nevada, #11 seed George Mason, and #7 seed UCLA.

They've had a seed _worse_ than this #3 seed in ten of their sixteen appearances (and were 6-4 in those games).  They've never before had a #3 seed. 

Overall, #14 seeds are 16-95 against #3 seeds (seems like an odd number, but that's what bbstate.com tells me), for 14%, or a little more than one win every two years.

The last was in 2010, so clearly we're due! (Ohio over Georgetown.  Before that was 2006... Northwestern State over Iowa.)

[Updated for 4th first round loss.  Darn "second round".]

[GoPanthers33]

Overall, #14 seeds are 16-95 against #3 seeds (seems like an odd number, but that's what bbstate.com tells me), for 14%, or a little more than one win every two years.

The last was in 2010, so clearly we're due! (Ohio over Georgetown.  Before that was 2006... Northwestern State over Iowa.)

Its 16-96. They probably just forgot to add one of the games last year.

http://www.bracketscience.com/forum/thread.asp?c=1&y=&p=0&t=17582&s=BS

[valpotx]

Found this interesting, that we are called 'dangerous killers' lol:

http://insider.espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/blog/_/name/giant_killers/id/9063799/2013-ncaa-tournament-top-10-most-likely-early-upsets-college-basketball

[LaPorteAveApostle]

Under Izzo MSU has been to the NCAA's the (1) last 15 years. (2) 3 times they did lose in the 1st round, but 2 of those were when they had a .500 record in conference (13-5 this year) They made the Sweet 16 10 times, the Final Four 5 times. A bad deal for VU - slim odds. Izzo is a very good coach - odds of an unfocused team are slim. I'd have rather played Michigan there.

--1) 1998-2013 = 16

--2) 2011 + 2006 + 2004 + 2002 = 4

[LaPorteAveApostle]

If it makes you feel better, the RPIForecast computer gives us unconditional chances (http://www.rpiforecast.com/tourneyodds.html):

1)  a 12.7% chance of winning, or around 1 in 8 (better than SDSU vs. Michigan, for those who mistakenly would rather have drawn them)

2)  a 3.8% chance of winning again (Sweet 16), or around 1 in 25 (better than UCLA or Colorado St)

3)  a 0.5% chance at the Elite 8, or 1 in 200 (the same as Temple).

4)  a 1 in 210,280 chance of winning it all, or 53rd best even though we were given the 56th seed.
(Montana has a 1 in 340,290,000 chance, or OVER SIXTEEN HUNDRED TIMES WORSE THAN US, for those of us me & chef that are still

[LaPorteAveApostle]

Also given on the same link at the bottom:  CONDITIONAL probabilities.

CONDITIONAL probabilities represent the chance that a team reaches a round GIVEN THAT IT REACHED THE PREVIOUS ROUND.

We look like so:
   Valparaiso   14   MW   100.0   12.7   29.9   13.4   8.9   12.9   8.1   
--(100% chance we're in the dance.)
--aforementioned 12.7% chance we win Rd 1 ("2") (worse than Harvard; all other % are understood to be better than everyone below us)
--29.9% chance we go to Sweet 16 if we beat MSU (same as UNLV)
--13.4% chance we go to Elite 8 if we won S16 (better than Oklahoma)
--8.9% chance we go to Final 4 if we won E8 (better than Bucknell)
--12.9% chance we go to NC if we won regional final (better than ELEVEN schools seeded higher than us)
--8.1% chance we win NC if we won national semi (better than four schools seeded higher than us)

so "console one another with these words."

Computers like us more than a bunch of old biased white dudes.

[agibson]

--2) 2011 + 2006 + 2004 + 2002 = 4

Argh!  Wikipedia has 2011 as a "second round" loss.  Thanks for the correction.

[LaPorteAveApostle]

"second round"

I'm totally with you on how grade inflation makes the four games the "first round" and thirty-two the "second", though.

[LaPorteAveApostle]

LINK DUMP

DetNews:

"Reeling Michigan State can't help but notice its path is similar to 2000"

http://www.detroitnews.com/article/20130318/OPINION03/303180346#ixzz2NtIiUCF9

For all their success, Sunday marked just the third time in a dozen years the Spartans earned a top-16 seeding.
...
There is no doubt Michigan State has the talent to make a deep run, with its interior strength and a top-10 defense. But there's also no hiding the Spartans' flaws: They give away too many possessions — don't worry, Memphis gives away even more — and they don't shoot the 3 all that well.

And this time of year, if you're guilty of the former — Michigan State ranks 209th nationally in turnover percentage — it sure helps if you can do the latter, erasing a big deficit with less effort. Izzo's team shoots just 34.4 percent from behind the arc — 137th in the country — and the last eight games is hitting fewer than 30 percent of its 3-point attempts.

It doesn't help, either, that the Spartans' best marksman is playing with a bum shoulder or two. Harris aggravated his left shoulder again at the Big Ten tournament in Chicago this weekend. And while he shrugged off a question about the injury Sunday — "I still feel pretty good right now," he said — his coach honestly couldn't.

Five on five: Michigan State vs. Valparaiso
http://www.detroitnews.com/article/20130318/SPORTS0202/303180362/1004/
MSU:
1) turnover tale (MSU 14-1 when turning it over less than opponent)
2) appling's a-game
3) harris hurting
4) payne soaring
5) close to home
VU:
1) opening round woes
2) familiarity (apparently a game in 2000 + BWood = "familiarity")
3) common foes (uh-oh)
4) on the Horizon
5) school record for wins

Freep
http://www.freep.com/apps/pbcs.dll/gallery?Site=C4&Date=20130317&Category=SPORTS07&ArtNo=303170809&Ref=PH&Profile=1359
interesting "meet valpo" photo gallery

Michigan State will start NCAA run at the Palace against Valparaiso
http://www.freep.com/article/20130317/SPORTS07/130317046/Michigan-State-will-start-NCAA-run-at-the-Palace-against-Valparaiso

And the Spartans have a brief, unhappy history as a No. 3 seed. MSU was a No. 3 once before, in 1995, losing to No. 14 seed Weber State in the first round in Jud Heathcote's last game as head coach.

[agibson]

MSU was a No. 3 once before, in 1995, losing to No. 14 seed Weber State in the first round in Jud Heathcote's last game as head coach.

Nice!  I missed it - didn't look before Izzo.

Fun to see the Detroit press looking past us, to Memphis.

_Maybe_ Izzo did just a little bit also, in calling us a formidable foe "to start out with".

[Valpo2010]

WHo is actually going?

*Raises Hand*

Bought tickets on stubhub last night.  $350 for main floor...both sessions Thursday and Saturday.  Looking forward to a fun couple days in Detroit...and by that I mean I'll be spending my free time in Windsor...

[Pulling69]

Detroit isn't bad just stay away from the East side 7 mile.

[vufan75]

Nice radio interview with Valpo Head Coach Bryce Drew on sports talk radio station "The Score" WSCR 670am in Chicago from last evening.

http://chicago.cbslocal.com/audio/986-670-the-score-interviews/?utm_medium=dl&utm_campaign=670-the-score-interviews#986

[StlVUFan]

Nice radio interview with Valpo Head Coach Bryce Drew on sports talk radio station "The Score" WSCR 670am in Chicago from last evening.

http://chicago.cbslocal.com/audio/986-670-the-score-interviews/?utm_medium=dl&utm_campaign=670-the-score-interviews#986

Jukin' and jivin' and side-steppin' touchy questions with the best of 'em

[TitanReg]

Just a quick note to say good luck to Valpo in the Dance.  Its great you're playing the Palace and I hope many of you plan to attend.
I, for one, am rooting for you against MSU.  Horizon League pride.  I feel many of the UDM fans will be rooting for you also.
Play well and play your game, down back down and beat Sparty. 

Good Luck To The Crusaders!!!

[SanityLost17]

I think everyone will find this information interesting.   ESPN has Montana's Non-Conf SOS was 24th in the nation.  Ours was 225th!  If you look at the teams they played, it doesn't look to be that much harder than ours.  They played Colorado State, Idaho, San Diego, BYU, San Fransico, and South Dakota St.  They also played a couple of non-D1 schools.   

New Mexico was tougher than Colorado State, St. Louis was tougher than BYU, and Murray St. on the road probably pretty close to the same as SDSU as far as chances of winning goes.  I would say San Diego and Nebraska/Kent State are about even.  Idaho and San Fransico would have been wins for us, just like IUPUI and IPFW were.   Just think about it...  Had we played their schedule, our record would not be any worse, in fact, it might be better.  A 24th ranked non-conf schedule would have dropped our RPI down into the 11 seeed range.  However, it is crazy because I don't think theirs was any harder than ours?  In fact, I think ours might have been harder.   I think we need to drop some crap teams from our schedule and play a few D2 schools instead?!?!  Thoughts.   

[a3uge]

24th ranked non-conf schedule would have dropped our RPI down into the 11 seeed range.  However, it is crazy because I don't think theirs was any harder than ours? 

Had nothing to do with OOC scheduling. It had everything to do with geographic location. Nothing we can do about it. It's a broken process.

[Kyle321n]

I'm apparently cool now and got to do a preview for the Valpo-MSU game.  I'm pissed about their seed. I'm pissed about the team they got, but damn it if I'm asked to do a respectable journalism piece I'll do my damnedest to make it sound like I'm not that pissed.

In my opinion we didn't get shafted on seed as badly as we got shafted on the team we're playing.  We're easily the best of the 14 seeds.  MSU or New Mexico are the best 3 seeds.  I don't get why the top 3 and 14 seeds would face each other.  We should be in Lexington against Marquette, which sets up a potential second round match up against BUTLER! Damn it bracketmakers, you should have listened to Tom Thibodeau: DO. YOUR. JOB.

[Valposter]

Spot

I'm apparently cool now and got to do a preview for the Valpo-MSU game.  I'm pissed about their seed. I'm pissed about the team they got, but damn it if I'm asked to do a respectable journalism piece I'll do my damnedest to make it sound like I'm not that pissed.

In my opinion we didn't get shafted on seed as badly as we got shafted on the team we're playing.  We're easily the best of the 14 seeds.  MSU or New Mexico are the best 3 seeds.  I don't get why the top 3 and 14 seeds would face each other.  We should be in Lexington against Marquette, which sets up a potential second round match up against BUTLER! Damn it bracketmakers, you should have listened to Tom Thibodeau: DO. YOUR. JOB.

Spot on analysis on all counts.