3/21, 12:15pm ET: NCAA First Game: (14) Valpo v. (3) Michigan State Game Thread

[VULB#62]

Robert Morris - 59. The reigning 2012 NCAA Champion, University of the Commonwealth of Kentucky - 57.  It CAN be done.  And they rushed the court BTW.

[vu72]

It is really hard to imagine how Kentucky has fallen so far.  With no disrespect to Robert Morris (maybe we should get them in the Horizon!), Kentucky found out how hard it is to play on the road in a small facility.  Still, even without Noel, they have multiple McDonald All Americans.

Anyway, back to THE game.  In reading the reports, it is interesting that they focus on how much bigger they are, without any reference to Bobby, who will not be pushed around.  In that sense, we are much better than last year as last year our back-up was a skinny 6'8"  guy who would much prefer to play on the outside.

It will be an interesting game...

[vuweathernerd]

last year our back-up was a skinny 6'8"  guy who would much prefer to play on the outside.

who are you referring to? richie edwards was not skinny, and was fairly capable of holding his own down on the block.

[valpo04]

While our seeding and matchup may not have been great, I feel we got a favorable position on this shirt at least...



http://www.footballfanatics.com/COLLEGE_Valparaiso_Crusaders/NCAA_2013_March_Madness_Final_Four_Mens_Basketball_Championship_Youth_68_Team_Ball_T-Shirt_-_White

[vu72]

last year our back-up was a skinny 6'8"  guy who would much prefer to play on the outside.

who are you referring to? richie edwards was not skinny, and was fairly capable of holding his own down on the block.

[/b]

Well, he was compared to Bobby.  Richie was way out of position playing the five.  He is a natural 3 or 4.

[bbtds]

Do you know the singular of minutia? Minutia is plural for all who may not have known that.

Actually, minutia IS singular...minutiae is the plural for all who may not possess a degree in dead languages.

I surrender. I apparently read this wrong.

mi·nu·ti·a  (m-nsh-, -sh, -ny-)
  n. pl. mi·nu·ti·ae (-sh-)
A small or trivial detail: "the minutiae of experimental and mathematical procedure" (Frederick Turner).

[KL31NY]

According to my local listings, the Michigan State and Valparaiso press conferences will be on the Big Ten Network starting at 11:50 CT TODAY! It'll be MSU at 11:50am, VU at 12:20pm, then repeating for the following two hours.

[vu84v2]

Valpo can really only play on big at a time where Michigan State will likely play two.  This could play to Valpo's advantage if Broekhoff can get open looks off of screens that Michigan State big men don't want to run around.  Of course, MSU can probably counter with a smaller lineup.

I think that Kentucky lost because they didn't care about the NIT.  It also didn't help that they had to play on the road (since Lexington was hosting a regional).  In general, I think that teams that have high turnover from season to season will logically have huge performance variance from one year to the next.

[a3uge]

Here was my prophetic quote before the Green Bay end of the regular season game:

I feel like Valpo does a pretty good job of winning games down the stretch that don't really have a bearing on things... The Missouri State and EKU bracketbusters... the game vs Butler last year. I know Valpo will be playing for pride, so I don't think they'll lay an egg, but I think the lack of pressure is almost good for Valpo. Valpo played loose during the EKU game and absolutely destroyed them.

In a weird way, Valpo is kind of in the same situation. True, if they lose, the season's over, and so are the careers of Broekhoff, Buggs, KVW, Kenney, and Bogan. But there's no overbearing pressure on them to win. There's very little expectations for the team, so they can play loose knowing that they can walk out of the gym with their heads held up if they fight hard. They don't have much to lose and their goal is to be a spoiler, not to make a championship run (like MSU's goal).

If Valpo shoots well, getting killed on the boards might not matter. Michigan State might get 3,4 changes to score on certain possessions, but that can be evened out by great 3-point shooting.

Valpo is 40th in the country in 3-point shooting and 6th in FG%. In the regular season Green Bay game I mentioned, Valpo was 60% FG and 56% 3P. If they shoot with confidence, they can make a game out of it. In March, Valpo's been shooting the 3-ball at 43.1. Overall, we have two shooters over 40% and one at 39%. MSU, for comparison sake, has a March 3-point percentage of  31.5%. They recently struggled with their shot against Iowa. They have one shooter who doesn't attempt many 3's over 45%, and one shooter at 39.7%. The rest are below 32%.

So I think the key to any mid major knocking off a power team is great shooting. That's how Norfolk St got it done last year. Another key will be to get Michigan State into foul trouble, which I think can be done with KVW playing his style. I think HL refs get so used to Kevin drawing contact under the basket that they let it go. Hopefully we get a ticky-tack ref that Kevin can take advantage of down-low.

[bbtds]

Hopefully we get a ticky-tack ref that Kevin can take advantage of down-low.

I've seen no ref in the tournament so far (okay, only 2 games in the Big Dance played as of yet) or any of the CIT, CBI or NIT games who has called it close. The only refs that have ruined a game are the Richmond/Charlotte refs in the A-10 tournament. It seems the refs are taking the position to let the players decide the games no matter how much physical play and hacking are going on.

[covufan]

Freep:
Ex-Michigan State, -Valparaiso hoopster Brandon Wood has advice for both teams
http://www.freep.com/article/20130319/SPORTS07/303190107/

Was just thinking of Brandon and this game.  Thanks for the link.

[StlVUFan]

Hopefully we get a ticky-tack ref that Kevin can take advantage of down-low.

I've seen no ref in the tournament so far (okay, only 2 games in the Big Dance played as of yet) or any of the CIT, CBI or NIT games who has called it close. The only refs that have ruined a game are the Richmond/Charlotte refs in the A-10 tournament. It seems the refs are taking the position to let the players decide the games no matter how much physical play and hacking are going on.

Which is a good way to NOT let the players decide the game.

[covufan]

Freep:
Ex-Michigan State, -Valparaiso hoopster Brandon Wood has advice for both teams
http://www.freep.com/article/20130319/SPORTS07/303190107/

Was just thinking of Brandon and this game.  Thanks for the link.

Brandon is right - we can't be intimidated.  I don't think with a senior starting lineup that we'll have that problem.  We can win this game!

[covufan]

Robert Morris - 59. The reigning 2012 NCAA Champion, University of the Commonwealth of Kentucky - 57.  It CAN be done.  And they rushed the court BTW.

Wow.  The way to show the NCAA committee that you belonged is to win the NIT, not lose a first round game, at home, as a #1 seed.  If these two played six more games, three at each home floor, I don't see Robert Morris winning another.  Good for them and basketball!

[bbtds]

Hopefully we get a ticky-tack ref that Kevin can take advantage of down-low.

I've seen no ref in the tournament so far (okay, only 2 games in the Big Dance played as of yet) or any of the CIT, CBI or NIT games who has called it close. The only refs that have ruined a game are the Richmond/Charlotte refs in the A-10 tournament. It seems the refs are taking the position to let the players decide the games no matter how much physical play and hacking are going on.

Which is a good way to NOT let the players decide the game.

I beg to differ. It does let the players decide the game just not in the way you want the game to be decided. Both players can play physically if they know the ref is not going to call it close. It does change the game into a more physical game which lets the players determine the outcome of the game. That may not be your desire because you want to see basic basketball--shooting, passing, dribbling--instead of one players ability to out muscle another player.

[StlVUFan]

Hopefully we get a ticky-tack ref that Kevin can take advantage of down-low.

I've seen no ref in the tournament so far (okay, only 2 games in the Big Dance played as of yet) or any of the CIT, CBI or NIT games who has called it close. The only refs that have ruined a game are the Richmond/Charlotte refs in the A-10 tournament. It seems the refs are taking the position to let the players decide the games no matter how much physical play and hacking are going on.

Which is a good way to NOT let the players decide the game.

I beg to differ. It does let the players decide the game just not in the way you want the game to be decided. Both players can play physically if they know the ref is not going to call it close. It does change the game into a more physical game which lets the players determine the outcome of the game. That may not be your desire because you want to see basic basketball--shooting, passing, dribbling--instead of one players ability to out muscle another player.

Wrong.  I want fouls that are committed to be called.  If they are not, then the referees are deciding the game.

What you mean to say is you don't want fouls called that aren't legitimate fouls.  Neither do I.  I wish just once somebody would tell the truth in this never-ending debate.

If a player commits a legitimate foul and the referee calls it, the player has decided the outcome, not the referee.

[valpotx]

I am very much looking forward to this game, and I think that our shots will be on.  I really hope that they don't sag off of Buggs, as that will make it so much better to watch.  If they are playing a tight man-to-man defense, I think it can be done.  I predict a tie going into the last possession of the game, which we will have.  Rowdy drives down the lane and shoots a fadeaway jumper to win it  .

Prediction with them playing on Buggs:

Valpo 77
MSU 75

If they sag on Buggs:

MSU 81
Valpo 68

[KL31NY]

AUSSIE AUSSIE AUSSIE! OI OI OI! http://www.nwitimes.com/sports/basketball/college/ncaa-tournament/mens-tournament/brokehoff-hopes-for-chance-to-face-former-australian-teammates/article_8f84b1d3-7674-53a6-a925-9a8ba7da4dd7.html

[wh]

I am very much looking forward to this game, and I think that our shots will be on.  I really hope that they don't sag off of Buggs, as that will make it so much better to watch.  If they are playing a tight man-to-man defense, I think it can be done.  I predict a tie going into the last possession of the game, which we will have.  Rowdy drives down the lane and shoots a fadeaway jumper to win it  .

Prediction with them playing on Buggs:

Valpo 77
MSU 75

If they sag on Buggs:

MSU 81
Valpo 68

I think the Erik sagging defense is more of a gimmick within the HL, run by opponents that feel we have an advantage down low with Kevin or at the wing with Ryan that they cannot otherwise overcome.  I doubt if MSU feels that they are overmatched by either Kevin or Ryan.  Remember, Billy Donavan commented after the championship game that their game plan was to make Erik Buggs beat them - but the irony was he in fact did beat them.  I'm sure MSU has watched plenty of film from that game, as well as other recent games.  Lastly, New Mexico and St. Louis - both very good teams - played Erik straight up and came away with double digit wins. 

[Spartan24]

You are a little bit off our 6'10 PF Adreian Payne shoots about 1-2 3's per game so it's not like he doesn't shoot many. Gary Harris our SG is shooting 41% from 3 and has been our most consistent shooter all year. He has been injured a lot though so whenever he isn't shooting very well like against Ohio state recently I just assume his shoulder popped out again. Also our backup PG Travis Trice is a pretty good shooter about 40% on the year. Don't forget about Russell Byrd though he's the best shooter on the team.

[zvillehaze]

I think the Erik sagging defense is more of a gimmick within the HL, run by opponents that feel we have an advantage down low with Kevin or at the wing with Ryan that they cannot otherwise overcome.  I doubt if MSU feels that they are overmatched by either Kevin or Ryan.  Remember, Billy Donavan commented after the championship game that their game plan was to make Erik Buggs beat them - but the irony was he in fact did beat them.  I'm sure MSU has watched plenty of film from that game, as well as other recent games.  Lastly, New Mexico and St. Louis - both very good teams - played Erik straight up and came away with double digit wins. 

I'll slightly disagree, because SLU didn't play Buggs straight up.  This is a tweet from the HL's Bill Potter:

Bill Potter‏@billpotter_HL2 Dec
When Valpo gets into offense set, SLU puts 6'8" Cory Remekun on him, but parks him in middle. SLU not chasing him off screens at all. #HLMBB

I watched that game and agree with Bill's assessment.  The difference is that WSU's Billy Donlon tried doing that with a guard, instead of using a bigger defender like SLU did.  The obvious advantage of using a big is that he can contest layups if Buggs drives AND he is available as a help defender in the paint against Valpo's other players.  The WSU guard sagging off Buggs could do neither of those.

I doubt MSU tries this, but if they wanted to, they could use Payne to "guard" Buggs.  This would a.) eliminate the potential Payne on Broekhoff mismatch on the perimeter by allowing either Dawson or Harris to chase Ryan through screens, and b.) allow Payne, the team's leading shot blocker, to roam the lane and help on KVW or be available if Broekhoff tries to post up a smaller defender.    It's not MSU's style to do this, but I guess we'll see tomorrow!  Good luck!

[demonstrationHall]

You are a little bit off our 6'10 PF Adreian Payne shoots about 1-2 3's per game so it's not like he doesn't shoot many. Gary Harris our SG is shooting 41% from 3 and has been our most consistent shooter all year. He has been injured a lot though so whenever he isn't shooting very well like against Ohio state recently I just assume his shoulder popped out again. Also our backup PG Travis Trice is a pretty good shooter about 40% on the year. Don't forget about Russell Byrd though he's the best shooter on the team.

? In Practices only, Byrd has shot poorly all season long in game situations. If we could just get Valpo to wear MSU's practice jersey Byrd would get a double / double. But sadly Valpo will wear game Jerseys, pencil in Byrd for 3 points, 3 Rebounds and 3 turnovers.

[Spartan24]

I was just kidding about that last part 

[HC]

WSU put a bigger guy on Buggs in the 2nd half. It worked for a while.

[agibson]

From one of Oren's game day pieces
http://www.nwitimes.com/sports/basketball/college/ncaa-tournament/mens-tournament/wood-provides-bond-between-valparaiso-and-michigan-state/article_1dd1853c-a662-5352-9983-2ecc314b6c6d.html

Wood isn't the only Michigan State player with ties to the Crusaders. Sophomore walk-on Keenan Wetzel attended Valparaiso two years ago but was never cleared to practice with the team. Wetzel transferred to East Lansing last season and has been a valued member of the scout team for the last two years.

"Everyone on our team respects those guys," Wetzel said. "I'm friends with a couple of them and there is no way that we're going to overlook them."

Had anyone heard of this Wetzel guy?  What's the story?