Next Season and Beyond

[usc4valpo]

Just thinking about this, have you noticed that DePaul and Northwestern has not faced Valpo since the 1979-80 season?  Here is another example of 2 teams that are wimping out to save face, especially DePaul, who is at rock bottom.  It has been awhile.

[milanmiracle]

Just thinking about this, have you noticed that DePaul and Northwestern has not faced Valpo since the 1979-80 season?  Here is another example of 2 teams that are wimping out to save face, especially DePaul, who is at rock bottom.  It has been awhile.

Let's look at this from the other side of the coin...what benefit would it be for DePaul to schedule Valpo? What benefit would it be for Northwestern to schedule Valpo?

Notre Dame schedules cupcakes in the non conference season, just because they know the Big East (soon to be ACC) is a grind and they'll need the wins more than anything else. The conference covers the RPI and strength of schedule. Unless the team is going be be an attendance draw...why bother?

If I were DePaul or Northwestern, I wouldn't schedule Valpo either...no benefit to my university or team.

[a3uge]

Those teams are playing 1-2 non conference games on the road each year. If they play on the road, it's typically in the Chicago area anyways (Chicago St, Loyola). If they can't beat a better mid major on the road, how do they expect to beat a B1G/BigEast conference opponent on the road?

[classof2014]

I can see it benefiting the Northwesterns or DePauls to schedule a team like Valpo, either at home or on the road. Valpo has been good over the past few seasons and since there is now way Northwestern or DePaul are gonna win their conferences, a road win against a Valpo might look good to the selection committee if they were able to pull off a few upsets in their conferences. A win against a team like Valpo or if Valpo were to beat Northwestern or DePaul, it can be the difference between first four in or first four out.

It is a risk though, for if you lose, especially if your Northwestern or DePaul, that greatly hurts your chances of getting an at large bid unless Valpo has a really good season and is one of the elite mid-majors for that year. It's definitely a risk, a win will look really good while a loss would look bad.

[a3uge]

I can see it benefiting the Northwesterns or DePauls to schedule a team like Valpo, either at home or on the road. Valpo has been good over the past few seasons and since there is now way Northwestern or DePaul are gonna win their conferences, a road win against a Valpo might look good to the selection committee if they were able to pull off a few upsets in their conferences. A win against a team like Valpo or if Valpo were to beat Northwestern or DePaul, it can be the difference between first four in or first four out.

It is a risk though, for if you lose, especially if your Northwestern or DePaul, that greatly hurts your chances of getting an at large bid unless Valpo has a really good season and is one of the elite mid-majors for that year. It's definitely a risk, a win will look really good while a loss would look bad.

Honestly it's not like losing to a mid major on the road will look any worse than how those teams look now. Both programs are an absolute joke. Nobody looks at them favorably to begin with. Playing a MEAC level schedule in the OOC portion is embarrassing. Depaul played two teams under 150 RPI this year. How does that help them at all? How do they look any better beating Chicago State on the road vs losing to a tough mid major on the road? Northwestern's OOC SOS was 231. Depaul 336. Iowa missed the tourney and they went 21-12, and 10-10 in the B1G TEN. They played ONE OOC road game and LOST to Virginia Tech. Maybe a road top 100 RPI win would've pushed their RPI lower and cause them to actually make the tournament.

[StlVUFan]

Just thinking about this, have you noticed that DePaul and Northwestern has not faced Valpo since the 1979-80 season?  Here is another example of 2 teams that are wimping out to save face, especially DePaul, who is at rock bottom.  It has been awhile.

Let's look at this from the other side of the coin...what benefit would it be for DePaul to schedule Valpo? What benefit would it be for Northwestern to schedule Valpo?

Toughening up for conference season, build confidence by beating tough mid-major, showing your athletes you have confidence in them, not looking like a bunch of wimps, ... I could go on and on and on.

I could bring up the spirit of competition, but we all know that spirit's been compromised beyond repair, so in the interest of not being laughed out of the room, I'll skip that one.

[classof2014]

During the 2011-12 season Northwestern finished as a bubble team. Possibly if they scheduled some tougher non-conference mid-major opponents they would have gotten in, instead of just finishing outside of the bubble. Replacing the games against Texas Pan-Am, Texas So, Central Conn St, Eastern Illinois, etc... with higher quality mid-major programs, like Valpo, and winning 3 out of 4 might have been enough to push them over the edge last year to get the in. This year that would've proven to be moot because they were beyond bad but in years when they won a few upper-level B1G games but still finish just over .500 coupled with a few more wins against upper-level mid-major school probably would have been enough to be on the other side of the bubble and be in the tourney.

[justducky]

I think we can agree that with the 6 seniors gone our early season OOC start next year could be really ugly. Most of us can also agree that if all goes well we might finish the season on a roll with a RPI in the 90-150 range (give or take).

So if there are some scheduling advantages to our being a November  pushover how can we exploit them? Might we be able to set up some 2 for 1, 1 for 1, or 1 and done deals that last years senior-led team could not get? Lots of names come to mind but would certainly include ND, Purdue, Northwestern, Butler and any of the MVC, or high mid-major (at large hope) teams.

[vu72]

I think we can agree that with the 6 seniors gone our early season OOC start next year could be really ugly. Most of us can also agree that if all goes well we might finish the season on a roll with a RPI in the 90-150 range (give or take).

So if there are some scheduling advantages to our being a November  pushover how can we exploit them? Might we be able to set up some 2 for 1, 1 for 1, or 1 and done deals that last years senior-led team could not get? Lots of names come to mind but would certainly include ND, Purdue, Northwestern, Butler and any of the MVC, or high mid-major (at large hope) teams.

Maybe, but remember with Dority, Capo, Coleman, Chadwick, Rossi and Vashil, we have senior leadership and experience working with Bryce that won't rely on Freshman.  It may not be as bad as you think.

[classof2014]

Maybe, but remember with Dority, Capo, Coleman, Chadwick, Rossi and Vashil, we have senior leadership and experience working with Bryce that won't rely on Freshman.  It may not be as bad as you think.

I think you are correct. Both Dority and Capo are gonna be our go to guys next year and they will both be improved from this past season. If Dority can finish better I think he has the potential to be a 15 to 20ppg type player and Capo is that post player down low who will be a hard match up since he can shoot around the perimeter to keep the defense honest. If Vashil works on his ball handling skills I can see him as well being vastly improved, and I think we saw that when he did get some playing time as the season progressed. Same thing with Coleman, he seemed much more sound towards the end than the beginning, we just had 6 seniors in front of them who were playing their final games is why we didn't see much of Coleman. I think a guy like Keith Carter might be the X-factor next year, Mr. Basketball in Illinois runner-up in 2011. I think we got a steal when he left SLU. And if one of the freshman can produce right away we're in decent shape. Still a lot of unknowns about the next season and if some players aren't improved from last year or aren't as good as what we thought it could be a rough year. At least 1 or 2 out of the 6, possibly 7 (still have one scholarship spot open) newcomers can produce consistent numbers I think we're in good shape. But like I said still a lot of unknowns out there.

[historyman]

Maybe, but remember with Dority, Capo, Coleman, Chadwick, Rossi and Vashil, we have senior leadership and experience working with Bryce that won't rely on Freshman.  It may not be as bad as you think.

Has anyone in this group really provided any leadership? Maybe Dority. Was that great leadership? This is where this board heads out on a limb and starts calling that limb solid ground. Let's not over do it.

[LaPorteAveApostle]

So if there are some scheduling advantages to our being a November  pushover how can we exploit them?

Actually, there aren't really advantages to being a pushover--recall how UNM and other MWC teams "gamed" the RPI system:  they played really good teams from lower conferences, not crappy ones.

If BCS and other top-10 conferences don't think we're going to be a 20+ win team, they won't want to schedule us.  Look at Michigan--they scheduled Cleveland State thinking that they would be good, and Anton Grady goes down, and for a while MGoBlog was running a "days since CSU's last win" item on their basketball review, bemoaning the fact that every loss to the Loyolas and Milwaukee was reflecting on the Wolverines.

Although, didn't seem to stop them from running the table, I should (not yet) say

[IrishDawg]

So if there are some scheduling advantages to our being a November  pushover how can we exploit them?

Actually, there aren't really advantages to being a pushover--recall how UNM and other MWC teams "gamed" the RPI system:  they played really good teams from lower conferences, not crappy ones.

If BCS and other top-10 conferences don't think we're going to be a 20+ win team, they won't want to schedule us.  Look at Michigan--they scheduled Cleveland State thinking that they would be good, and Anton Grady goes down, and for a while MGoBlog was running a "days since CSU's last win" item on their basketball review, bemoaning the fact that every loss to the Loyolas and Milwaukee was reflecting on the Wolverines.

Although, didn't seem to stop them from running the table, I should (not yet) say

CSU was part of the Preseason NIT and placed into Michigan's pod - Michigan did not put them on their schedule.  You are correct about gaming the RPI though, every team does it in order to have a better shot of getting into the tourney as well as getting better seeding if they aren't from a Big 10/ACC type of conference.

I don't see Butler trying to schedule you guys anytime soon, but I do think if the HL manages to stay together you could become the dominant force in it.  You've got a good class coming in next season and I look forward to seeing how everything plays out.

[talksalot]

OK, so who WOULD play us at the  UNITED CENTER next year ?   getting close to dinner time and I'm contemplating the improved media room munchies.

[vu72]

OK, so who WOULD play us at the  UNITED CENTER next year ?   getting close to dinner time and I'm contemplating the improved media room munchies.

Illinois?  Indiana?  Notre Dame (again)?  Wisconsin?  All would be good local draws with great fan bases in the Windy City.

[LaPorteAveApostle]

CSU was part of the Preseason NIT and placed into Michigan's pod - Michigan did not put them on their schedule.

Good point.  I was hoping no one would call me on that since i failed to come up with a better example

[justducky]

So if there are some scheduling advantages to our being a November  pushover how can we exploit them?

Actually, there aren't really advantages to being a pushover--recall how UNM and other MWC teams "gamed" the RPI system:  they played really good teams from lower conferences, not crappy ones.

If BCS and other top-10 conferences don't think we're going to be a 20+ win team, they won't want to schedule us.

Let me try again. Because of our senior losses we should be viewed next November as a relatively low risk with potentially high reward OOC opponent. As the holdovers figure out their new roles, the freshmen gain experience, and Keith Carter comes onboard mid December our mid season team may resemble our Nov team very little. So if the HL does show significant improvement next year and we are strong down the stretch then an unimpressive Nov win over a 180 rpi VU, could look much better in March if we move up to 90 or 90+. In an attempt to improve our schedule could our early season disadvantage be used for some longer term scheduling benefit? I think that should be the way that Bryce tries to sell it.

[classof2014]

Let me try again. Because of our senior losses we should be viewed next November as a relatively low risk with potentially high reward OOC opponent. As the holdovers figure out their new roles, the freshmen gain experience, and Keith Carter comes onboard mid December our mid season team may resemble our Nov team very little. So if the HL does show significant improvement next year and we are strong down the stretch then an unimpressive Nov win over a 180 rpi VU, could look much better in March if we move up to 90 or 90+. In an attempt to improve our schedule could our early season disadvantage be used for some longer term scheduling benefit? I think that should be the way that Bryce tries to sell it.

I agree, the team in November won't be anything like the team in February. I do think we should schedule tough competition OOC but nothing too tough where we put ourselves in a whole with 5 probable losses to high quality teams early on. If we can schedule once again teams like SLU, NM, Nebraska, Murrary St, etc... who knows maybe we could surprise a few people and steal a game or two. I do agree I think November we might struggle a bit with all the newcomers and not have Keith Carter till mid-December. I'm looking at next season like the 2011-12 season, not with high expectations but I don't see them being subpar though. Drew is too good of a coach and if a few of our juniors can improve and the freshman grow as the season goes on I think we'll have a stellar season, not like this season but worthy of a CBI or CIT bid. Anything more than that would be a pleasant surprise.

[historyman]

Let me try again. Because of our senior losses we should be viewed next November as a relatively low risk with potentially high reward OOC opponent. As the holdovers figure out their new roles, the freshmen gain experience, and Keith Carter comes onboard mid December our mid season team may resemble our Nov team very little. So if the HL does show significant improvement next year and we are strong down the stretch then an unimpressive Nov win over a 180 rpi VU, could look much better in March if we move up to 90 or 90+. In an attempt to improve our schedule could our early season disadvantage be used for some longer term scheduling benefit? I think that should be the way that Bryce tries to sell it.

I agree, the team in November won't be anything like the team in February. I do think we should schedule tough competition OOC but nothing too tough where we put ourselves in a whole with 5 probable losses to high quality teams early on. If we can schedule once again teams like SLU, NM, Nebraska, Murrary St, etc... who knows maybe we could surprise a few people and steal a game or two. I do agree I think November we might struggle a bit with all the newcomers and not have Keith Carter till mid-December. I'm looking at next season like the 2011-12 season, not with high expectations but I don't see them being subpar though. Drew is too good of a coach and if a few of our juniors can improve and the freshman grow as the season goes on I think we'll have a stellar season, not like this season but worthy of a CBI or CIT bid. Anything more than that would be a pleasant surprise.

Honestly, to me, this seems like too many IFs which are mounting up against the 2013-14 Valpo team.

[covufan]

OK, so who WOULD play us at the  UNITED CENTER next year ?   getting close to dinner time and I'm contemplating the improved media room munchies.

I'm thinking a doubleheader with Valpo vs ND or Iowa, and Loyola vs ND or Iowa.  Iowa and ND have fan bases in Chicago, and the HL teams need the games.

[valpopal]

For those who want to move on and think ahead, here is a prediction of the Horizon League basketball season for next year, though it was posted just before the news about the loss of Loyola, which it predicted to finish behind Valpo in fifth place.

The forecast has Valpo in fourth place, behind Green Bay in first followed by Wright State in second and Detroit in third. (The predictions were also composed before the investigation at Green Bay, and we don't know what influence, if any, that could have.)

I question the summary about Valpo because it states the "2013 recruiting class is deep, but without any highly touted prospects. Their highest rated recruit is probably 6'6" Jubril Adekoya." I think the league will be surprised by our prospects, especially Alec Peters.

http://basketballpredictions.blogspot.com/2013/04/2013-14-preview-mid-majors-part-ii.html

[classof2014]

I question the summary about Valpo because it states the "2013 recruiting class is deep, but without any highly touted prospects. Their highest rated recruit is probably 6'6" Jubril Adekoya." I think the league will be surprised by our prospects, especially Alec Peters.

I think Clay Yeo and Keith Carter will be guys who will immediately turn some heads. Yeo is an Indiana All-Star and Carter was runner up Mr. Basketball in Illinois in 2011. Although, Carter is not a traditional recruit he'll still have 2 1/2 season of eligibility remaining, I believe, and being runner up in the state of Illinois is something to brag about if your Carter.

I have hopes for "next season and beyond", this recruiting class has a lot of potential and I am eager for the start of the next season to watch all 7 new guys take the court next season, including Chadwick. Hopefully we can capture fire in a bottle and have a 5 great players for the next four years, 1 great player for the next 3 seasons, and 1 great player for the next 2 seasons.

[wh]

I remember hearing (reading) somewhere that the coaching staff thinks Alec Peters can make an immediate impact.  After all he is a Top 10 IL All Star, had 25 official D-1 offers, including Butler, St. Louis, Boston College, Tennessee, etc.  He's 6-8 and can shoot the lights out.  It's also probably safe to assume that he will bulk up. 

Is it a known fact that Keith Carter is not eligible until 2nd semester?  Wasn't he hurt at St. Louis and played in only a handful of games?  I wonder if we have gotten an official notification of when he will become eligible?

[classof2014]

Is it a known fact that Keith Carter is not eligible until 2nd semester?  Wasn't he hurt at St. Louis and played in only a handful of games?  I wonder if we have gotten an official notification of when he will become eligible?

I think he is only eligible at the start of the semester. Not 100% sure though, I did hear some rumors that he might have been able to redshirt and he'll still be considered a freshman. I know that's why he left SLU he wanted more time to heal but the coaches wanted him to play and possibly make the injury worse. Don't blame Carter for leaving SLU if that was the case.

[LaPorteAveApostle]

The issue with Carter is that he wanted a medshirt for the year, only playing 3 games, but being as he transferred during that year it's far from a sure thing.

It's theoretically possible that if he got it he could play the spring semester plus 3 more years; but it's also possible they could grant him immediate eligibility, for three total years; or worst-case scenario, spring semester plus 2 more.

It seems the NCAA has been slowly liberalizing the exceptions to their rules, but the process is sloooow (for instance Devin Gardner receiving a redshirt this spring for his 2010 fall freshman season).