Valpo to be visited by MVC this week, thoughts?

[vu72]

Only being 8 teams strong and Detroit your best team, not good for the Horizon.

Detroit has one more year of being good, then they go back to where they've been for 10-12 years. 

Don't count on it.  They lose Anderson and Minnerath and most likely McCallum.  The NBA draft is a bit weak this year and most likely stronger again the following year.  Thus, it makes sense for the reigning HL POY to come out now versus waiting, with a possible down year or injury hanging over his head.  With those guys gone Detroit will not be near the same.

[classof2014]

Don't count on it.  They lose Anderson and Minnerath and most likely McCallum.  The NBA draft is a bit weak this year and most likely stronger again the following year.  Thus, it makes sense for the reigning HL POY to come out now versus waiting, with a possible down year or injury hanging over his head.  With those guys gone Detroit will not be near the same.

Agree with you there. Detroit will be subpar next season. McCallum is probably leaving for the nba, don't blame him, why risk staying at Detroit or take the money the nba will give you. I think Daddy is terrible coach, who got lucky with a thug like Minnerath and sonny boy playing under his father and I don't think they have that great of a recruiting class, honestly what kid says, "man I really wanna go to school in Detroit."

[LaPorteAveApostle]

I know it's apples and oranges, but there is a reason why the Big Ten accepted Maryland and Rutgers even though they haven't been exactly world-beaters on the football field.  Rutgers gets them into the NYC market somewhat even though RU may not be exactly relevant there.

Except that that doesn't matter, since that's how TV economics worked in the 90s (as in, not for much longer).  I'll leave it to Will Leitch, since he's far better on the subject than I:

Not that many people are going through all the trouble to do this yet, but as cable fees keep going up, and more workarounds can be found (and we haven't even gotten into pirated feeds), more people will cut the cord. We live in an information-wants-to-be-free age, and we're still being held down by these media-company gatekeepers. In the real world it's 2012; in the cable universe, it might as well be 1988. Eventually, this will have to change. It's too insane and rigged-against-the-consumer for it not to. The problem, of course, is that, like so many capitalists before them, leagues and teams and sports networks are all assuming that it'll always be like this, that these revenue will keep growing forever and ever, that this golden goose will always keep laying eggs. There are decades upon decades of Darwinian consumer trends that contradict that. In 30 years, we may have all unplugged our cable bundles and be paying a la carte. This is the nightmare situation, but I'm not the first person to suggest we're living in a cable sports television bubble. Someday it'll pop. Then, suddenly, we'll look and think: Why in the world is Maryland in the Big Ten?

http://www.sportsonearth.com/article/40627104  (Sorry, 04 )

I don't even think it will take 30 years.  10 tops.  I cut the cord nine months ago and haven't looked back.  And clearly I take sports seriously.

Check out this interesting (dated) Nate Silver (I know i know) article about fandom vs. market share in DI FB (i know) that points out it doesn't matter how many people live somewhere; it matters what they like and who they like.  Which is why, for example, Birmingham is a better college football town than Houston or Detroit.
http://thequad.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/09/19/the-geography-of-college-football-fans-and-realignment-chaos/

Yes, when I was a kid we would always check the marquis to see what movie was playing at the Premier Theater.

This is why we generally agree on everything. noddingslowly.gif

[historyman]

This is why we generally agree on everything. noddingslowly.gif

Yes, we do!

[StlVUFan]

Hypothetically, the Chicago market may provide the conference with an increased media presence resulting in additional dollars to the conference without tournament appearances from any Chicagoland schools.  Just the expansion of the market might provide net worth, meaning, in other words, if a network wants "it", the conference still has the potential to make money if it moves to 12--whether or not any of the three schools are actually media relevant in that respective market.

Couldn't agree with you more on that fact. You literally have the whole Chicagoland covered pretty much, North (LU), West (UIC), and South (Valpo). And by having 3 teams there is that much more of a chance of a team doing well in a major city and bringing in major dollars. If any of the 3 teams raise their level of play while in the MVC, this will bring in a substantial portion of the MVC's revenue. I think out of those 3 teams, Valpo currently has the best chance of doing that but both UIC and Loyola are larger schools so they naturally will have more potential followers, and being in a better conference might bring many of those UIC and Loyola alumni out of the closet.

Once again, I'm confused by this fixation on the Chicago market, since the Chicago market cares not one wit for any of the 3 teams you are talking about.  It's not doing the HL any good.  Why would it do the MVC any good?

[a3uge]

I think I have the same opinion as wh. A hesitant yes to switch due because it might not be that big of a jump up, but if the Horizon starts losing members, I'm afraid they'll start adding IUPUI, IPFW, UMKC, and other Summit League members. Even an Oakland isn't all that attractive. I'd rather be in a lateral league than a watered-down Horizon.

I also like wh's point that the MVC wouldn't add UIC as the program to replace Creighton. I think it would be more logical for the MVC to wait on UIC and stay with 9 and see what options are out there - maybe Valpo commits to a new stadium? Maybe Belmont and Murray State want in? Maybe they change their mind on ORU?

I think that debunks the 'inside sources' saying UIC is a done deal. I can't imagine how in the hell two days after a visit, the same night as visiting Valpo they got all parties (each MVC AD/president) involved, as well as UIC officials and the NCAA and came to a conclusion/vote on adding UIC. Also, the decision apparently was completely independent from any other program joining, meaning the MVC would be willing to replace Creighton with a bottom feeder program from an inferior conference.

I also love StlVUFan's point above about the Chicago teams. Much love around.

[classof2014]

Once again, I'm confused by this fixation on the Chicago market, since the Chicago market cares not one wit for any of the 3 teams you are talking about.  It's not doing the HL any good.  Why would it do the MVC any good?

I think the MVC sees the potential with UIC and Loyola, obviously they haven't done much for the Horizon but there is always the potential. I don't see it but I think the MVC just sees the potential monetary gain in the Chicagoland market. I'm sure if one of these teams turns into a perennial winner then more people will be following. Right now I don't see it but who knows 3,4,5,6... years from now will bring.

Right now I don't understand wanting UIC or LU in the MVC but maybe 5 to 10 years from now we'll be saying what a smart move on behalf of the MVC.

[crusaderjoe]

Hypothetically, the Chicago market may provide the conference with an increased media presence resulting in additional dollars to the conference without tournament appearances from any Chicagoland schools.  Just the expansion of the market might provide net worth, meaning, in other words, if a network wants "it", the conference still has the potential to make money if it moves to 12--whether or not any of the three schools are actually media relevant in that respective market.

Couldn't agree with you more on that fact. You literally have the whole Chicagoland covered pretty much, North (LU), West (UIC), and South (Valpo). And by having 3 teams there is that much more of a chance of a team doing well in a major city and bringing in major dollars. If any of the 3 teams raise their level of play while in the MVC, this will bring in a substantial portion of the MVC's revenue. I think out of those 3 teams, Valpo currently has the best chance of doing that but both UIC and Loyola are larger schools so they naturally will have more potential followers, and being in a better conference might bring many of those UIC and Loyola alumni out of the closet.

Once again, I'm confused by this fixation on the Chicago market, since the Chicago market cares not one wit for any of the 3 teams you are talking about.  It's not doing the HL any good.  Why would it do the MVC any good?

Forget the focus on UIC and LUC for a moment.  Again, we're talking hypothetically, but if Bradley, Illinois State and Southern Illinois have more alumni that will be able to access their school's games within the Chicagoland market with greater regularity as a result of the two additions, how does this hurt the MVC?

[FWalum]

Once again, I'm confused by this fixation on the Chicago market, since the Chicago market cares not one wit for any of the 3 teams you are talking about.  It's not doing the HL any good.  Why would it do the MVC any good?

Maybe they have some data on MVC viewership in the Chicago market that we aren't privy to? If they are already pulling some numbers from that market perhaps they think adding Chicago based teams will expand their reach in the Chicago area.

[crusaderjoe]

I know it's apples and oranges, but there is a reason why the Big Ten accepted Maryland and Rutgers even though they haven't been exactly world-beaters on the football field.  Rutgers gets them into the NYC market somewhat even though RU may not be exactly relevant there.

Except that that doesn't matter, since that's how TV economics worked in the 90s (as in, not for much longer).  I'll leave it to Will Leitch, since he's far better on the subject than I:

Not that many people are going through all the trouble to do this yet, but as cable fees keep going up, and more workarounds can be found (and we haven't even gotten into pirated feeds), more people will cut the cord. We live in an information-wants-to-be-free age, and we're still being held down by these media-company gatekeepers. In the real world it's 2012; in the cable universe, it might as well be 1988. Eventually, this will have to change. It's too insane and rigged-against-the-consumer for it not to. The problem, of course, is that, like so many capitalists before them, leagues and teams and sports networks are all assuming that it'll always be like this, that these revenue will keep growing forever and ever, that this golden goose will always keep laying eggs. There are decades upon decades of Darwinian consumer trends that contradict that. In 30 years, we may have all unplugged our cable bundles and be paying a la carte. This is the nightmare situation, but I'm not the first person to suggest we're living in a cable sports television bubble. Someday it'll pop. Then, suddenly, we'll look and think: Why in the world is Maryland in the Big Ten?

http://www.sportsonearth.com/article/40627104  (Sorry, 04 )

I don't even think it will take 30 years.  10 tops.  I cut the cord nine months ago and haven't looked back.  And clearly I take sports seriously.

Check out this interesting (dated) Nate Silver (I know i know) article about fandom vs. market share in DI FB (i know) that points out it doesn't matter how many people live somewhere; it matters what they like and who they like.  Which is why, for example, Birmingham is a better college football town than Houston or Detroit.
http://thequad.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/09/19/the-geography-of-college-football-fans-and-realignment-chaos/

Yes, when I was a kid we would always check the marquis to see what movie was playing at the Premier Theater.

This is why we generally agree on everything. noddingslowly.gif

Listen, you may be right about where TV is heading.  However, that notwithstanding, I read the Nate Silver article when it came out--good and interesting reading generally.  However, some of the information is suspect, IMO.  Take the state of Florida for example.  Do you honestly believe that Miami's market share is greater than UF's or FSU's statewide?  If you do, I have some great oceanside property to sell you in Belle Glade. Miami draws sellouts at home when UF or FSU come to town because 40% of the attendance is made up of Gator or Seminole fans.

[crusadermoe]

I think Crusader Joe makes a LOT of sense on the Chicago alumni base of several MVC schools.     
Bradley and Illinois State probably have more than half of their alumni and students coming from Chicago.    Drake, Northern Iowa, and even Southern Illinois might have more than we think.   
IRONICALLY, the Missouri Valley Conference had just ONE school located in the actual Missour River valley...............Creighton.   

[StlVUFan]

I think Crusader Joe makes a LOT of sense on the Chicago alumni base of several MVC schools.     
Bradley and Illinois State probably have more than half of their alumni and students coming from Chicago.    Drake, Northern Iowa, and even Southern Illinois might have more than we think.   
IRONICALLY, the Missouri Valley Conference had just ONE school located in the actual Missour River valley...............Creighton.   

Indeed (at long last), here is something that does make some sense.

Thanks.

[LaPorteAveApostle]

Do you honestly believe that Miami's market share is greater than UF's or FSU's statewide?  If you do, I have some great oceanside property to sell you in Belle Glade.

I will give you that.

Here's Bethune-Cookman @ Miami (reported: 39k)

[blackpantheruwm]

Am I the only one who thinks Kourtney is the hot one?

Yes.

I disagree

[wh]

Something amazing has happened in the midst of all of this conference reshuffling discussion. The UIC message board has awakened from catatonia!  People are posting, coherent thoughts are being expressed, hope abounds.  Definitely worth a look. 

[VU75]

Noone asked but here's a few random thoughts.

UIC has been on the Valley's radar for a while.  There was a Trib story maybe 8-10 years ago about MVC officals touring UIC's facilities.  They were quick to point out that they had no plans to expand at the time but just wanted to be prepared in case things changed. 

Keep in mind that in  looking at possible TV coverage both fox and NBC plan to have rival sports networks to ESPN up and running by next fall.

Apparently for the past year there are Valpo folks who have been trying to convince Evansville folks that the Horizon would be a better fit for a small private school then the MVC.  One wonders which side they will come down on if Valpo gets an invite.

[FWalum]

Having been on the UE Parents council for 4 years I can tell you that the previous administration would have loved to be in the same conference as VU. They felt that the two universities competed for the same pool of students. They were a little envious of VU's US News and World Report ranking. I am almost certain they would welcome us to the MVC.

[valpopal]

MVC commissioner Doug Elgin told FOX Sports Kansas City that the league could be in a position to vote on new members — Creighton is slated to join the new-look Big East this summer — as soon as late April.

"I think we'll likely be in position to have a decision, or make no decision, by the end of the month," Elgin said....

http://www.foxsportskansascity.com/story/mvc-moving-closer-to-expansion-decision-?blockID=888999&fb_action_ids=10200903556060656&fb_action_types=og.likes&fb_source=other_multiline&action_object_map=

[classof2014]

MVC commissioner Doug Elgin told FOX Sports Kansas City that the league could be in a position to vote on new members — Creighton is slated to join the new-look Big East this summer — as soon as late April.

"I think we'll likely be in position to have a decision, or make no decision, by the end of the month," Elgin said....

http://www.foxsportskansascity.com/story/mvc-moving-closer-to-expansion-decision-?blockID=888999&fb_action_ids=10200903556060656&fb_action_types=og.likes&fb_source=other_multiline&action_object_map=

Chances are Elgin already has a decision made within is head, whether or not the rest of the MVC is on board is the real question. I think Elgin had an idea of what team(s) he wanted right when Creighton announced they were leaving for the new Big "East", hence the reason for contacting the four teams. Wouldn't be surprised to see them jump to 12 teams, and the exclusion being UMKC. Why else would he visit 3 Chicago based schools, with all of the other schools, some better than UIC & Loyola out there somewhere between Wichita and Evansville. I think it is just a question of whether or not the ADs of the other schools are on board of going to 12 teams. Now, that is the question that still needs to be answered. If yes, welcome aboard Valpo, UIC, and Loyola. If no, then I do believe 1 out of those 3 will be a new MVC member, I'd put my money on Valpo. If it came down to 1 out of the 3 Chicago teams, I wouldn't be surprised if it was any of them to be honest.

The MVC lost perhaps their biggest market in Omaha, now they look to replace it with the Chicago market, and what better way to do with 3 teams. Just 3 times the chance of striking gold and having one of the largest markets in the United States labeled a Missouri Valley market.

[wh]

I have it on good authority that the MVC's choice for a 10th member has come down to either UIC or a sleeper program that no one has been talking about - IUPUI.  Apparently, both schools are perceived to be alike in many respects and would similarly devalue the MVC.  Here are some of the considerations:

...similar enrollment - IUPUI 30,000 UIC 25,000
...similar academic programs, image and reputation (academic reputation exaggerated equally by alums of both schools)
...both have terrible men's basketball programs
...both reside in major metropolitan areas where they can't recruit
...no one follows either program or cares whether they exist
...neither gets any media exposure, meaning there is great opportunity for improvement at both places
...both schools are public, which would weigh the already imbalanced public/private mix further in favor of public

Another of my many sources indicates that IUPUI may in fact be slightly ahead based on more "reason for hope" :
(my source's words, not mine)
...IUPUI has been terrible playing in terrible facilities; UIC has been terrible despite playing in very good facilities
...the other D-1 program where IUPUI resides has achieved a high degree of success; all D-1's where UIC resides are equally terrible

I'll try to keep everyone posted as this develops further.  There's a guy that lives down the street whose sister works in cafeteria services at UIC.  I'm going to see what he can find out. 

No offense intended toward anyone.  Just trying to add a little levity to all the tension surrounding this whole thing. 

[LaPorteAveApostle]

Quote from: wh on April 04, 2013, 03:50:00 PM
"Well gentlemen, after a long exhaustive search, we have finally come up with the perfect replacement for our recently departed top athletic program, Creighton University.  I give you UIC."

"Think of them as the IUPUI of Illinois!"

[valpotx]

That Fox Sports article has me hoping that VU, ORU, and Loyola are added.  I hadn't seen ORU on the prospect list for awhile, so I am hoping that if we are added, that they add 3 private schools to get a 6/6 ratio.  ORU has shown the willingness to compete in all sports (other than moving to the Southland), and barring their 2007-2008 financial fiasco, would be a good addition for an easy rival of VU.

[vu72]

That Fox Sports article has me hoping that VU, ORU, and Loyola are added.  I hadn't seen ORU on the prospect list for awhile, so I am hoping that if we are added, that they add 3 private schools to get a 6/6 ratio.  ORU has shown the willingness to compete in all sports (other than moving to the Southland), and barring their 2007-2008 financial fiasco, would be a good addition for an easy rival of VU.

[/b]

Do you really wasnt to have to get by ORU to make the NCAAs in baseball??

[valpotx]

The MVC has gotten multiple baseball bids in the past, so in that conference, I would not mind it at all.  They always have a really good RPI, so if we beat them every so often as we did in our final Mid-Con days, it really helps out.  With Dallas Baptist joining as an affiliate member for baseball only next season, the MVC is positioning itself as a constant multiple bid baseball league.  That can only help us in the future as well, as we have gotten much more competitive on a national scale since Woodson took over.  A conference with Wichita State (good on a national level just about every year), Dallas Baptist (same), and ORU (same) would possibly be in the mix for 3+ bids each year, which not many non-Southern/Western conferences can say they get!  Even Indiana State has really picked it up over the last few seasons, and I believe they got an at-large last year.

[bbtds]

The MVC has gotten multiple baseball bids in the past, so in that conference, I would not mind it at all.  They always have a really good RPI, so if we beat them every so often as we did in our final Mid-Con days, it really helps out.  With Dallas Baptist joining as an affiliate member for baseball only next season, the MVC is positioning itself as a constant multiple bid baseball league.  That can only help us in the future as well, as we have gotten much more competitive on a national scale since Woodson took over.  A conference with Wichita State (good on a national level just about every year), Dallas Baptist (same), and ORU (same) would possibly be in the mix for 3+ bids each year, which not many non-Southern/Western conferences can say they get!  Even Indiana State has really picked it up over the last few seasons, and I believe they got an at-large last year.

And Valpo visiting Dallas Baptist every year for baseball would give valpotx a chance to see Coach Woodson and the boys each spring.