Valpo to be visited by MVC this week, thoughts?

[UNIFTW]

I think, barring something changing this week, the MVC rolls 11 for at least a year.

There's no good way to do divisions.

The MVC takes it's public/private split very seriously. If we go to 12 it will have to be a 6/6 public private split. UWM may have smoke now, but I'm not sure I see it.

I won't be shocked to see 11 until SLU finally figures out the Big East isn't happening and the A10 stars to fracture.

[agibson]

I want to clear up a couple things about my twitter

What's your handle? In a moment of searching I couldn't turn it up.

[oklahomamick]

What do you think the likely hood of Valpo getting the invite?

60% going to mvc?
70% going to mvc?
Or higher?  Or even lower? 

Sounds like Murray St. has a higher chance....

[agibson]

What do you think the likely hood of Valpo getting the invite?

60% going to mvc?
70% going to mvc?
Or higher?  Or even lower? 

Sounds like Murray St. has a higher chance....

I'm still feeling burned by the Loyola move. I'll guess 20% we're in the MVC in the 2017-18 or 2018-19 season.

[oklahomamick]

What do you think the likely hood of Valpo getting the invite? 60% going to mvc? 70% going to mvc? Or higher?  Or even lower? Sounds like Murray St. has a higher chance....

I'm still feeling burned by the Loyola move. I'll guess 20% we're in the MVC in the 2017-18 or 2018-19 season.

That's very low....

[elephtheria47]

Does the MVC invite one or Two? Could they be touring back to back days, attend the BoR meeting for comparison purposes since Murray states was public?

Loyola still might be the correct 5-10 year pick with their new facilities and if they get the team turned around. With losing Creighton and WSU,  they dont have the luxury of building a university into a contender but need some bball firepower  right away. Hopefully whatever held us back last time is not the same as this time because not much has changed facility wise. If i had to take a guess, im guessing a little more likely right now that we'll be in mvc next year than the HL....obviously this week is big and should get some indication one way or another

[vu72]

Does the MVC invite one or Two? Could they be touring back to back days, attend the BoR meeting for comparison purposes since Murray states was public?

Loyola still might be the correct 5-10 year pick with their new facilities and if they get the team turned around. With losing Creighton and WSU,  they dont have the luxury of building a university into a contender but need some bball firepower  right away. Hopefully whatever held us back last time is not the same as this time because not much has changed facility wise. If i had to take a guess, im guessing a little more likely right now that we'll be in mvc next year than the HL....obviously this week is big and should get some indication one way or another

If its all about rebuilding the basketball brand then the MVC cannot make another Loyola mistake.  Facilities do not equate to winning.  Look at the current facilities of the MVC bottom feeders.  Much better than lowly Valpo.  Yet somehow we attracted Joe Burton, Bakari Evelyn and now, Ryan Fazekas.  If facilities were the draw then Northern Kentucky would be  Shew in.

[VU2014]

I want to clear up a couple things about my twitter

What's your handle? In a moment of searching I couldn't turn it up.

@cdl1018

[VULB#62]

For all we know every duck is already lined up, they're all at attention in full dress style and only formalities remain.  However, only those in very high places (MVC officials and the candidate school(s) ) really know for sure.  Although I dont share agibson's pessimistic 20% (but do share his burned feelings), I am hopeful that when the dust clears, there will be at least 2 invitations announced and accepted and I fervently hope one is Valpo.  I sent letters to MLB and MH this morning expressing that.

[covufan]

I didn't notice your comment about Joe Burton.  It's exciting to have two players at that level.  It looks like good times ahead.

As noted on another thread, Valpo will have 5 3&4-Star players on next year's roster (6 players > 2):

4-Star Joe Burton 6-6
3.3-Star Ryan Fazekus 6-8 (4 and two 3's)
3-Star Parker Hazen 6-7
3-Star Bakari Evelyn 6-2
3-Star Derrik Smits 7-2
2.5 Star Micah Bradford 6-2

Would you happen to know how that compares with MVC teams?

According to Verbal Commits, the Valpo average is 2.444, which will likely go up once seniors are off the board and all newcomers are enrolled.  The MVC is:

http://www.verbalcommits.com/conferences/missouri-valley

You can click on average stars to sort. 

Without Wichita St it is:

Loyola   2.364
Illinois St  2.306
S. Illinois   2.256
Bradley   2.233
Drake    2.182
Ind St    2.111
Mizz St   2.091
E'Ville    2.051
N. Iowa   2.038

As you can see, Valpo should compete from day 1.  I would not expect UNI to remain that low for too long. 

[oklahomamick]

We should create a poll on "Do you think we are going?" and "Do you think we should?"

[VU2014]

We should create a poll on "Do you think we are going?" and "Do you think we should?"

I think it would be interesting to see the poll of where everyone stands. I'm for it.

[wh]

I didn't notice your comment about Joe Burton.  It's exciting to have two players at that level.  It looks like good times ahead.

As noted on another thread, Valpo will have 5 3&4-Star players on next year's roster (6 players > 2):

4-Star Joe Burton 6-6
3.3-Star Ryan Fazekus 6-8 (4 and two 3's)
3-Star Parker Hazen 6-7
3-Star Bakari Evelyn 6-2
3-Star Derrik Smits 7-2
2.5 Star Micah Bradford 6-2

Would you happen to know how that compares with MVC teams?

According to Verbal Commits, the Valpo average is 2.444, which will likely go up once seniors are off the board and all newcomers are enrolled.  The MVC is:

http://www.verbalcommits.com/conferences/missouri-valley

You can click on average stars to sort. 

Without Wichita St it is:

Loyola   2.364
Illinois St  2.306
S. Illinois   2.256
Bradley   2.233
Drake    2.182
Ind St    2.111
Mizz St   2.091
E'Ville    2.051
N. Iowa   2.038

As you can see, Valpo should compete from day 1.  I would not expect UNI to remain that low for too long. 

Valpo 2.444
Loyola   2.364
Illinois St  2.306
S. Illinois   2.256
Bradley   2.233
Drake    2.182
Ind St    2.111
Mizz St   2.091
E'Ville    2.051
N. Iowa   2.038

There appears to be an indirect correlation between "avg. stars" and facility seating capacity.  Maybe we've uncovered a hidden recruiting  consideration - the "echo" factor. 

[VULB#62]

We should create a poll on "Do you think we are going?" and "Do you think we should?"

I think it would be interesting to see the poll of where everyone stands. I'm for it.

If you recall, Paul did a Twitter poll early on, had maybe 200 244 hits and it came out 66%/34% GO MVC.

[tweet]849667283077263360[/tweet]

[wh]

I didn't notice your comment about Joe Burton.  It's exciting to have two players at that level.  It looks like good times ahead.

As noted on another thread, Valpo will have 5 3&4-Star players on next year's roster (6 players > 2):

4-Star Joe Burton 6-6
3.3-Star Ryan Fazekus 6-8 (4 and two 3's)
3-Star Parker Hazen 6-7
3-Star Bakari Evelyn 6-2
3-Star Derrik Smits 7-2
2.5 Star Micah Bradford 6-2

Would you happen to know how that compares with MVC teams?

According to Verbal Commits, the Valpo average is 2.444, which will likely go up once seniors are off the board and all newcomers are enrolled.  The MVC is:

http://www.verbalcommits.com/conferences/missouri-valley

You can click on average stars to sort. 

Without Wichita St it is:

Loyola   2.364
Illinois St  2.306
S. Illinois   2.256
Bradley   2.233
Drake    2.182
Ind St    2.111
Mizz St   2.091
E'Ville    2.051
N. Iowa   2.038

As you can see, Valpo should compete from day 1.  I would not expect UNI to remain that low for too long. 

Valpo 2.444
Loyola   2.364
Illinois St  2.306
S. Illinois   2.256
Bradley   2.233
Drake    2.182
Ind St    2.111
Mizz St   2.091
E'Ville    2.051
N. Iowa   2.038

There appears to be an indirect correlation between "avg. stars" and facility seating capacity.  Maybe we've uncovered a hidden recruiting  consideration - the "echo" factor (The bigger the venue, the higher the percentage of empty seats.  The higher the percentage of empty seats, the more sounds echo.  The more sounds echo, the more recruits are turned off.) 

[crusaderjoe]

What do you think the likely hood of Valpo getting the invite?

60% going to mvc?
70% going to mvc?
Or higher?  Or even lower? 

Sounds like Murray St. has a higher chance....

This is like throwing darts at a board but:

If the MVC moves to 10 teams, I think Valpo's chances are 40%. 
If the MVC moves to 11 teams, I think Valpo's chances increase to at least 65%.
If the MVC moves to 12 teams, I think Valpo's chances increase to at least 75%.

[VU2014]

We should create a poll on "Do you think we are going?" and "Do you think we should?"

I think it would be interesting to see the poll of where everyone stands. I'm for it.

If you recall, Paul did a Twitter poll early on, had maybe 200 244 hits and it came out 66%/34% GO MVC.

[tweet]849667283077263360[/tweet]

Yeah but that was just asking if people thought it was the better conference for Valpo. I'd say that most Valpo fans think the MVC is the better conference for us. Also keep in mind that many fans from Horizon League rivals were voting for in that twitter poll. Most Horizon League fans really don't want us to leave the HL.

I'm curious how confident people are that we will get an invite. There is almost no doubt that Valpo would accept a bid to the MVC.

[oklahomamick]

I just don't like getting my hopes up.

You know you wanting an inside straight and waiting on that last card.  You know the odds are low but you still hope.....and have a little chance. 

Where are we?  Nobody knows....only speculation. 

[bigmosmithfan1]

If the MVC moves to 12 teams, I think Valpo's chances increase to at least 75%.

If the MVC goes to 12 and Valpo somehow isn't one of the teams invited, then administrators within the MVC have taken leave of their senses. You can argue the merits of one team vs. another if the expansion is for 10, but aren't three available candidates out there for them that are better for the MVC than VU. There just aren't. Villanova's not walking through that door.

[UNIFTW]

According to Verbal Commits, the Valpo average is 2.444, which will likely go up once seniors are off the board and all newcomers are enrolled.  The MVC is:

http://www.verbalcommits.com/conferences/missouri-valley

You can click on average stars to sort. 

Without Wichita St it is:

Loyola   2.364
Illinois St  2.306
S. Illinois   2.256
Bradley   2.233
Drake    2.182
Ind St    2.111
Mizz St   2.091
E'Ville    2.051
N. Iowa   2.038

As you can see, Valpo should compete from day 1.  I would not expect UNI to remain that low for too long. 

UNI's recruiting stars have always been low. It's never been an issue for us. UNI's method is to grab kids before the blow up, thus they never get the "Respect" from 247, verbalcommits, ESPN, Rivals, etc.. that they "deserve".


Seth Tuttle was a first team All American. Committed as like a junior in high school at a small school in Iowa. His AAU coach (Iowa Barnstormers) was pissed because he knew Iowa, Iowa State, Illinois, etc... were about to offer. UNI has a very strong connection with the Iowa Barnstormers who have produced guys like Wes Washpun (TN and then UNI), all 4 Bohannon (2 went to Wisky, 1 to UNI and youngest at Iowa) brothers, Seth Tuttle (UNI), Austin Phyfe (coming into UNI this year), Connor McCaffery (Iowa), Spencer Haldeman (UNI), Luke McDonnell (UNI), Adam McDermott (UNI), Jeremy Morgan (UNI), Klint Carlson (UNI) and more than i can name. It's basically a who's who of UNI, Iowa, Drake, and a few other schools players, so if you're interested http://www.barnstormersbasketball.com/alumni.


UNI recruits early and backs off. There has never been a kid with an offer for more than a year to still have his ride at UNI, even if a ride is open. We may be seeing an exception coming to that shortly but yet to happen but we'll see.


UNI has 7 NCAAs in 14 years. A S16, a top 10 rankings, multiple regular season titles, 5 tournament titles, etc.... UNI's system doesn't lend itself to high star recruits. It's an entirely team focused philosophy built on no one really averaging more than 13-15 per game. If a kid isn't willing to play defense harder than offense and isn't willing to take a back seat on offense if need be then he won't play. We watched a kid not play for 2 years, even though he was our best shooter, because he couldn't figure out how to play defense and not shoot every time he touched it. That finally clicked by his rJr year and he was vital in the NCAA runs in 14 and 15. Stars don't matter to Coach Jake and it's works. He's 5th all time in MVC history in conference and total wins. He'll be 4th by the end of this coming year.


I can tell you the recruiting is going way up though. UNI loves Minneapolis. We have a kid that is likely to sign with UNI tomorrow, Tywhon Pickford. Would be a P5 offer kid but missed his JR year with a knee injury and P5s sniffed as a walk on but no offers. He's a high ceiling kid if he gets to it. Look at the kids that UNI has in the JR class. Kyle Green will end up at UNI if he doesn't get an blue blood offer. It helps his dad is a long time UNI assistant. He's a 3-4 star kid but his ranking is kept low because no one is willing to offer him. Minnesota, Iowa, Iowa State, Nebraska, Wisconsin, Stanford, etc... all recruiting him but they all assume he'll end up at UNI so they don't offer. He'll be the first to have an offer more than a year and still end up at UNI if he doesn't get a Kansas type offer. Kid dominates the AAU scene.


We are in pretty hard on Joey Hauser a 4.5* recruit. Shae Mitchell, Blake Brinkmeye, Race Thompson, etc... are all 3* and climbing guys. The star level at UNI is going up, but it's never been important. System fit has always come first.


We are finally developing post depth the last year or two after spending 5.5 years recovering from the Doug McDermott fiasco. I won't bore you with that, but UNI got F-ed in the A on that deal and really set our program back a few years. It wasn't until 2015 we started to be mostly recovered and this past year was our first year of "depth" but it wasn't developed depth year.


TL;DR - Don't worry about UNI's star rankings. We've always been called the "slow, white, unathletic farm boys that play slow and just want to rough people up".

[UNIFTW]

This is like throwing darts at a board but:

If the MVC moves to 10 teams, I think Valpo's chances are 40%. 
If the MVC moves to 11 teams, I think Valpo's chances increase to at least 65%.
If the MVC moves to 12 teams, I think Valpo's chances increase to at least 75%.

MVC goes to 10 - looks like <5%. Murray State has the edge there. A public left a public is added.
MVC goes to 11 - 98%
MVC goes to 12 - 99.999999%
I don't work in levels of 0 and 100%, but if 11 or more is the number Valpo is in. If not there will be a massive fan revolt that will make the addition of Loyola look tiny and they'll find UNI and ISUr on the first train out of town

[vu84v2]

UNIFTW: Northern Iowa is not getting Joey Hauser. He may go to Wisconsin, but if he doesn't he is going to play with his brother at Marquette.

[oklahomamick]

This is like throwing darts at a board but: If the MVC moves to 10 teams, I think Valpo's chances are 40%. If the MVC moves to 11 teams, I think Valpo's chances increase to at least 65%. If the MVC moves to 12 teams, I think Valpo's chances increase to at least 75%.

MVC goes to 10 - looks like <5%. Murray State has the edge there. A public left a public is added. MVC goes to 11 - 98% MVC goes to 12 - 99.999999% I don't work in levels of 0 and 100%, but if 11 or more is the number Valpo is in. If not there will be a massive fan revolt that will make the addition of Loyola look tiny and they'll find UNI and ISUr on the first train out of town

I'm just afraid that MVC stops at 10 with Murray St.

[vu72]

According to Verbal Commits, the Valpo average is 2.444,

I just did the math.  With the current roster we are at 2.5 but that includes walk-on Simon.  Without him we are 2.54, and that includes Tevonn at a 2!!!

[crusaderjoe]

If the MVC moves to 12 teams, I think Valpo's chances increase to at least 75%.

If the MVC goes to 12 and Valpo somehow isn't one of the teams invited, then administrators within the MVC have taken leave of their senses. You can argue the merits of one team vs. another if the expansion is for 10, but aren't three available candidates out there for them that are better for the MVC than VU. There just aren't. Villanova's not walking through that door.

No, but maybe Belmont is, along with Murray, and UIC/UWM/UMKC for market's sake.