Valpo to be visited by MVC this week, thoughts?

[oklahomamick]

As I'm sure we will automatically get the private school votes.  I wonder if Indiana state will vote for us?

[Commissioner]

Exactly. Also, you're taking out the strongest team retroactively while still dinging the remaining teams for fewer wins/more losses to a team that isn't there. It's not an accurate picture. Also, it's a one-year sample. Need to look at least 5-year trends and build in probabilities vs. an MVC schedule compared to HL schedule (with all of the variables included) to get anything resembling a projection model with an ounce of confidence in its forecasting ability. In short, you can't project the MVC minus WSU by simply removing the Shockers from 2017's conference RPI because Wichita was still in the conference and everyone played them, for good and for ill.

You guys are missing the point. Yes, if want to compare the MVC going forward with Valpo to the Horizon going forward without Valpo, then you'd certainly have to account for Valpo, wouldn't you? But what if Valpo decided not to move? Then the comparison would be the MVC without Valpo or Wichita to the Horizon with Valpo. And in that case, the leagues would be very close. If Milwaukee were to move to the MVC, the Horizon would rank higher.

In other words, the goal is not to compare the MVC with Valpo replacing Wichita to the Horizon having lost Valpo. It's  to compare the MVC without Valpo replacing Wichita to the Horizon keeping Valpo--which is where we would be going forward if Valpo doesn't move. And the bottom line that results is that--once Wichita is out of the picture, which it is--which conference has a better conference RPI depends almost entirely on which conference Valpo chooses to play in. For Valpo, then, there is very little difference. If Valpo goes to the MVC, the MVC will be better in conference RPI (based on last year's numbers). If Valpo stays in the Horizon, the two will be almost identical. If Valpo turns the Valley down and Milwaukee then gets and takes the invite, the Horizon will be better.

As to the fact that all the numbers would change because schedules would change, I acknowledged exactly that. But in point of fact, that would actually help the Horizon in the comparison, because we would subtract from  the MVC its team with the best non-conference record, which is the main driver of conference RPI (since, by definition, conference teams play .500 ball against one another).

Again, this is just one factor in the calculation--others have mentioned many reasons to prefer the Valley. And as acknowledged, this is based just on one year, and you certainly want to consider longer term potential. But just in terms of conference RPI, at least based on the strengths of the teams last year, Valpo doesn't much benefit from joining the Valley. Wherever Valpo hangs it hat (based on last year, of course) will have the advantage.

[agibson]

The OU games would be FUN IF THE HORIZON LEAGUE SCHEDULE MAKERS WOULD ACTUALLY SCHEDULE RIVALRY GAMES WHEN STUDENTS ARE ON CAMPUS!!! You also gave us ONE SATURDAY HOME GAME this year against a terrible YSU team! I'm sick of the ridiculous scheduling.

And, that one Saturday home game against a terrible YSU game drew 4823!!  Imagine if we were playing better teams from the Valley!!  Clearly our attendance numbers are skewed to the down side because of terrible scheduling timing.

Wasn't that Alec's record breaking game?  If so, little skewed.

I believe the record breaking game was against UIC. That was on a Sunday 2pm game on January 22.

Valpo crushed UIC 96-65.

It was Hall of Fame night with Lubos.

I don't know if that moved the attendance needle much more than it being the first time Alec wore #23 (OK, maybe a little).

[VU2014]

The OU games would be FUN IF THE HORIZON LEAGUE SCHEDULE MAKERS WOULD ACTUALLY SCHEDULE RIVALRY GAMES WHEN STUDENTS ARE ON CAMPUS!!! You also gave us ONE SATURDAY HOME GAME this year against a terrible YSU team! I'm sick of the ridiculous scheduling.

And, that one Saturday home game against a terrible YSU game drew 4823!!  Imagine if we were playing better teams from the Valley!!  Clearly our attendance numbers are skewed to the down side because of terrible scheduling timing.

Wasn't that Alec's record breaking game?  If so, little skewed.

I believe the record breaking game was against UIC. That was on a Sunday 2pm game on January 22.

Valpo crushed UIC 96-65.

It was Hall of Fame night with Lubos.

I don't know if that moved the attendance needle much more than it being the first time Alec wore #23 (OK, maybe a little).

I think what REALLY helped attendance was that it was the ONLY Saturday Conference Home games of the year. That was pretty darn good attendance for not a great opponent.

It would be really nice if we could get more Saturday home games!

Indiana State's Saturday Conference Games:

Saturday Home:
-JAN 7 (SAT) against Illinois State
-JAN 28 (SAT) against Loyola
-FEB 11 (SAT) against Drake

Saturday Away:
-DEC 31 (SAT) Missouri State
-JAN 21 (SAT) Wichita State
-FEB 4 (SAT) UNI
-FEB 25 (SAT) E-Ville

Might be (would be*) nice for attendance if we'd leave for the MVC

[talksalot]

it's 110 miles from SIU Carbondale to Murray KY;
it's 111 miles from SIU Carbondale to Evansville

[bigmosmithfan1]

I was always curious how Valpo got left out of that Mid-Con group that got into the MCC in the mid-90s? I know it was after we left, but I never heard the logic of that, especially considering Valpo was the only school that actually fit the original MCC profile of being all private.

To be fair, we had *one* winning season to our name in Division I at the time. That said, the rumor at the time was that Butler and Loyola did not want us to join, and VU was subsequently left in the dark on the negotiations. (When negotiations started, the entire Mid-Con was discussing merging with the remaining 4-5 Midwest Collegiate teams, or at least that was the word on the street).

[VU2014]

It's a good read. Part 1.

https://twitter.com/FatherHarry1/status/857653389467029504

http://www.valleyhoopsinsider.com/a-deeper-look-valparaiso-part-one/

A Deeper Look @ Valparaiso (Part One)
By valleyhoops on April 26, 2017
Special to ValleyHoopsInsider
By: Paul Oren – Northwest Indiana Times

(Valparaiso, IN) – Greetings from the Vale of Paradise! I'm Paul Oren and I've covered Valparaiso University athletics dating back to when I was a student journalist in the late 20th century. Ok, it was only 1999, but I've been around long enough and seen plenty of Valparaiso basketball over the last 18 years.

............

[UNIFTW]

FWIW KenPom has the MVC 10th in conference rankings for next year WITHOUT Wichita 

[RacerJoeD]

Before adding Valpo and Murray State.

[VU2014]

hahaha

https://twitter.com/NWIOren/status/857304153328103424
https://twitter.com/mickdogg3/status/857331674992005123
https://twitter.com/ValpoAD/status/857699813474918403

[a3uge]

I did some number crunching:

All these averages are over 5 years - they only include the teams listed, regardless of conference switches (aka NKU's ASUN years are tabbed in, and Loyola's RPI hit is factored in MVC, and not Horizon's)

Horizon avg (includes valpo)
188.9

MVC avg (includes wsu)
155.5

Horz no Valpo
200.5

MVC no WSU
170.4

Horz no Valpo, add Fort Wayne
197.1

MVC no WSU, add Valpo
161.8

MVC no WSU, add Murray, add Valpo
159.2

MVC no WSU, add Murray, add Valpo
159.2

MVC no WSU, add Murray, Valpo, and UWM
164.05

Horizon, no UWM, no Valpo, add IPFW
194.8

Any other combination?

[RacerJoeD]

Our latest podcast.
I say that Murray State and Valpo are the tier 1 candidates. Everyone else is tier two. What do you think?

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=HffFMGzOg1g&feature=youtu.be

[Commissioner]

I did some number crunching:[/size]All these averages are over 5 years - they only include the teams listed, regardless of conference switches (aka NKU's ASUN years are tabbed in, and Loyola's RPI hit is factored in MVC, and not Horizon's)Horizon avg (includes valpo)188.9MVC avg (includes wsu)155.5Horz no Valpo200.5MVC no WSU170.4Horz no Valpo, add Fort Wayne197.1MVC no WSU, add Valpo161.8MVC no WSU, add Murray, add Valpo159.2MVC no WSU, add Murray, add Valpo159.2MVC no WSU, add Murray, Valpo, and UWM164.05Horizon, no UWM, no Valpo, add IPFW194.8Any other combination?

Horizon, keep Valpo, no UWM

[wh]

Teams, they are a-changin

Austin Shone Sports
April 28, 2017

http://www.bradleyscout.com/sports/teams-they-are-a-changin/

Winner – Valparaiso

Valparaiso's winning history and past tournament success makes them the best fit for the MVC. Their geographical location is optimal, and they could renew in state rivalries against Evansville and Indiana State. They've shown the ability to recruit high caliber players, and would bring valuable revenue and another solid fan base to the MVC.

[crusaderjoe]

it's 110 miles from SIU Carbondale to Murray KY;
it's 111 miles from SIU Carbondale to Evansville

It's 110 miles from Evansville to Terre Haute.
It's 65 miles from LUC to Valparaiso.

Looks like we have the eastern travel partners set if the MVC wants to go that way.  If the MVC moves to 12 and splits divisions with divisional scheduling, Valpo potentially could be in a more geographical compact travel situation in the MVC than it is now in the HL.

[a3uge]

I did some number crunching:[/size]All these averages are over 5 years - they only include the teams listed, regardless of conference switches (aka NKU's ASUN years are tabbed in, and Loyola's RPI hit is factored in MVC, and not Horizon's)Horizon avg (includes valpo)188.9MVC avg (includes wsu)155.5Horz no Valpo200.5MVC no WSU170.4Horz no Valpo, add Fort Wayne197.1MVC no WSU, add Valpo161.8MVC no WSU, add Murray, add Valpo159.2MVC no WSU, add Murray, add Valpo159.2MVC no WSU, add Murray, Valpo, and UWM164.05Horizon, no UWM, no Valpo, add IPFW194.8Any other combination?

Horizon, keep Valpo, no UWM

185.7

[VU2014]

This is a must read. Its an article that has most of the MVC beat reporters giving their thoughts on what is the right move for the MVC.

https://twitter.com/PaulSuellentrop/status/857946485392121857

http://www.kansas.com/sports/college/wichita-state/shockwaves/article147338654.html

MVC round table: What number, format works for Valley basketball?
BY PAUL SUELLENTROP
psuellentrop@wichitaeagle.com
APRIL 28, 2017

The Missouri Valley Conference is evaluating possible members. Visits to Murray State, Valpo, Nebraska-Omaha and Milwaukee, according to Dave Reynolds of the Peoria Journal Star, are in the book or scheduled.

The MVC can consider many options for membership and our panel of Valley reporters and columnists discuss which school(s) fit, which number works and scheduling.

There's also a history lesson from Journal Star columnist Kirk Wessler (one that probably deserves its own post; grab a cup of coffee and settle in) that explains how the MVC reached this point.

.........

[FWalum]

I don't know about anyone else, but I was having a really hard time reading this before. 

I did some number crunching:All these averages are over 5 years - they only include the teams listed, regardless of conference switches (aka NKU's ASUN years are tabbed in, and Loyola's RPI hit is factored in MVC, and not Horizon's)Horizon avg (includes valpo)188.9MVC avg (includes wsu)155.5Horz no Valpo200.5MVC no WSU170.4Horz no Valpo, add Fort Wayne197.1MVC no WSU, add Valpo161.8MVC no WSU, add Murray, add Valpo159.2MVC no WSU, add Murray, add Valpo159.2MVC no WSU, add Murray, Valpo, and UWM164.05Horizon, no UWM, no Valpo, add IPFW194.8Any other combination?

Horizon, keep Valpo, no UWM

185.7

[VULB#62]

I found this assessment from the "Shock Waves" article to provide an interesting approach to a 12 team, 18 game schedule.

Jesse Kramer, thecatchandshoot.com

Losing Wichita State is of course a huge blow for the MVC's profile, but the opportunity for expansion gives the conference a chance to improve its ability to manipulate RPI for postseason selection and league reputation. But that's only if they go to 12 teams, ideally adding Murray State, Valpo and Milwaukee, and stick with an 18-game league schedule rather than moving to a 20-game slate.

With 18 games rather than 20, the MVC can try to manipulate its conference schedule based on preseason expectations to have the best teams play each twice while playing the worst teams only once. This is a strategy the 11-team MAAC will start using in the 2017-18 season largely as a response to Monmouth getting snubbed from the NCAA Tournament.

Here's an idea of how it could work in practice. (Of course the RPI numbers I'm about to use would change a bit based on Wichita State no longer being in the Valley, but let's roll with it.) Say this year's Illinois State team (No. 39 RPI) got to play Valpo (No. 78 RPI) twice and got rid of a game against Drake (No. 316 RPI). Maybe that schedule alteration gets them into the RPI Top 30 with two more "top 100 wins," and that could have been enough to get the Redbirds into the First Four instead of the NIT.

Preseason projections can be flawed so deciding who should have a home-and-home could backfire now and then, but generally they are pretty accurate.

And to be clear, the MVC should not have waited until Wichita State left to think about expanding to 12 teams. If they had tried earlier to strengthen the league and manipulate RPI to help postseason prospects for top teams, there's at least a chance that the Shockers would still be around.


He doesn't advocate two geographic divisions as most people are promoting with a 12 team conference.  His approach is very pragmatic.  Manipulate the schedule to optimize teams RPI, regardless of location, so that there is a better chance for the MVC to return to multi-bid status.  He states that the MAAC is going in that direction.

[VU2014]

Part 2

https://twitter.com/FatherHarry1/status/857963539767676929

http://www.valleyhoopsinsider.com/is-valpo-a-good-fit-part-two/

Is Valpo A Good Fit? (Part Two)
By Paul Oren on April 28, 2017

[SanityLost17]

I would like to see what our average rpi has been for the last 20 years in comparison to the existing 9 teams over their 20 year history.  Would be interested in Murray states 20 year average as well.  Anybody have free time to make that happen? 

I read that article.  I have a feeling using the 20 year scale we would fit in rather well. 

[VU2014]

Sounds like the MVC visited UWM yesterday. They've visited all 4 of the most heavily rumored schools: Murray State, Valpo, Omaha and UWM. Jimmy is the first person I've heard report that the MVC was at UWM yesterday.

https://twitter.com/PantherU/status/857973442611642368

[valpopal]

Just a reminder that the Valparaiso University Board of Directors are scheduled to be on campus today and tomorrow for meetings.

[ISUBird]

I would like to see what our average rpi has been for the last 20 years in comparison to the existing 9 teams over their 20 year history.  Would be interested in Murray states 20 year average as well.  Anybody have free time to make that happen? 

I read that article.  I have a feeling using the 20 year scale we would fit in rather well.

I'm not going to go through it, but this website will have the information

https://www.teamrankings.com/ncb/rpi/

[crusaderjoe]

I found this assessment from the "Shock Waves" article to provide an interesting approach to a 12 team, 18 game schedule.

Jesse Kramer, thecatchandshoot.com

Losing Wichita State is of course a huge blow for the MVC's profile, but the opportunity for expansion gives the conference a chance to improve its ability to manipulate RPI for postseason selection and league reputation. But that's only if they go to 12 teams, ideally adding Murray State, Valpo and Milwaukee, and stick with an 18-game league schedule rather than moving to a 20-game slate.

With 18 games rather than 20, the MVC can try to manipulate its conference schedule based on preseason expectations to have the best teams play each twice while playing the worst teams only once. This is a strategy the 11-team MAAC will start using in the 2017-18 season largely as a response to Monmouth getting snubbed from the NCAA Tournament.

Here's an idea of how it could work in practice. (Of course the RPI numbers I'm about to use would change a bit based on Wichita State no longer being in the Valley, but let's roll with it.) Say this year's Illinois State team (No. 39 RPI) got to play Valpo (No. 78 RPI) twice and got rid of a game against Drake (No. 316 RPI). Maybe that schedule alteration gets them into the RPI Top 30 with two more "top 100 wins," and that could have been enough to get the Redbirds into the First Four instead of the NIT.

Preseason projections can be flawed so deciding who should have a home-and-home could backfire now and then, but generally they are pretty accurate.

And to be clear, the MVC should not have waited until Wichita State left to think about expanding to 12 teams. If they had tried earlier to strengthen the league and manipulate RPI to help postseason prospects for top teams, there's at least a chance that the Shockers would still be around.


He doesn't advocate two geographic divisions as most people are promoting with a 12 team conference.  His approach is very pragmatic.  Manipulate the schedule to optimize teams RPI, regardless of location, so that there is a better chance for the MVC to return to multi-bid status.  He states that the MAAC is going in that direction.

Intriguing idea, but then with an 18 game schedule it would be impossible to schedule home and homes with each conference member each year, and potentially for several years with another conference team, no?

I don't know enough about the ramifications of doing so but from an off the cuff personal opinion, if the MVC moves to 12 and Valpo is asked to join, I would prefer a divisional format.  It just appears a little cleaner. Maybe perhaps create an interchangeable pseudo hybrid zipper alignment that is predicated on geography in part and RPI in part (or perceived program strength) with a protected rivalry component sprinkled in, akin to what the ACC did for football when it put Miami in one division and Florida State in the other even though they are in the same state. 

Although, to be fair this might be a jumbled hot garbage mess too.  Maybe 11 is the magic number for now with each team getting a H/H with each other.  All we can do is speculate and hope for an invite at least.