Valpo to be visited by MVC this week, thoughts?

[vu72]

So if my math is right our average RPI since 97-98 is 117.58.  If you throw out the high (08-09) at 261 and the low year before last) of 31, your average is 114.23.

During the 19 years we have had an RPI of 100 or better 10 times and over 150 6 times.

[VULB#62]

I found this assessment from the "Shock Waves" article to provide an interesting approach to a 12 team, 18 game schedule.

Jesse Kramer, thecatchandshoot.com

Losing Wichita State is of course a huge blow for the MVC's profile, but the opportunity for expansion gives the conference a chance to improve its ability to manipulate RPI for postseason selection and league reputation. But that's only if they go to 12 teams, ideally adding Murray State, Valpo and Milwaukee, and stick with an 18-game league schedule rather than moving to a 20-game slate.

With 18 games rather than 20, the MVC can try to manipulate its conference schedule based on preseason expectations to have the best teams play each twice while playing the worst teams only once. This is a strategy the 11-team MAAC will start using in the 2017-18 season largely as a response to Monmouth getting snubbed from the NCAA Tournament.

Here's an idea of how it could work in practice. (Of course the RPI numbers I'm about to use would change a bit based on Wichita State no longer being in the Valley, but let's roll with it.) Say this year's Illinois State team (No. 39 RPI) got to play Valpo (No. 78 RPI) twice and got rid of a game against Drake (No. 316 RPI). Maybe that schedule alteration gets them into the RPI Top 30 with two more "top 100 wins," and that could have been enough to get the Redbirds into the First Four instead of the NIT.

Preseason projections can be flawed so deciding who should have a home-and-home could backfire now and then, but generally they are pretty accurate.

And to be clear, the MVC should not have waited until Wichita State left to think about expanding to 12 teams. If they had tried earlier to strengthen the league and manipulate RPI to help postseason prospects for top teams, there's at least a chance that the Shockers would still be around.


He doesn't advocate two geographic divisions as most people are promoting with a 12 team conference.  His approach is very pragmatic.  Manipulate the schedule to optimize teams RPI, regardless of location, so that there is a better chance for the MVC to return to multi-bid status.  He states that the MAAC is going in that direction.

Intriguing idea, but then with an 18 game schedule it would be impossible to schedule home and homes with each conference member each year, and potentially for several years with another conference team, no?

I don't know enough about the ramifications of doing so but from an off the cuff personal opinion, if the MVC moves to 12 and Valpo is asked to join, I would prefer a divisional format.  It just appears a little cleaner. Maybe perhaps create an interchangeable pseudo hybrid zipper alignment that is predicated on geography in part and RPI in part (or perceived program strength) with a protected rivalry component sprinkled in, akin to what the ACC did for football when it put Miami in one division and Florida State in the other even though they are in the same state. 

Although, to be fair this might be a jumbled hot garbage mess too.  Maybe 11 is the magic number for now with each team getting a H/H with each other.  All we can do is speculate and hope for an invite at least.

I'm thinking that was his point -- Don't have an inflexible double round robin.  Instead set the schedule to optimize the top half of the conference.  This leaves room for 2 extra OOC games for teams.  At the very least, rivalry games would occur at least once a season if there was a lopsided RPI differential and the games would alternate location annually.  For similar RPI opponents those games would be guaranteed H&A annually.  It is, in my mind, a distant cousin to the English Premier League's relegation process (but without the lower level teams having to go down to MVC Jr.) It would be harder to manage but the end result -- a better chance at an at-large berth -- could mean more shares to be divided up by the conference on a regular basis.

[VULB#62]

Re: MVC targeting Valpo & Murray State to create 11 team lea
Postby MidWestMidMajor » April 28th, 2017, 9:40 am

This post showed up on csnbbs:

"Take it for what its worth. Panther insider says the MVC is going to 12. At least that is what they told the people at UWM. Valpo is a lock. Going into the process, the other three being considered, in order, were Murray State, Omaha and Milwaukee. No one else is being considered. Murray State cemented its position after the tour. Evidently, Omaha's tour didn't go well. It his belief that the MVC's opinion of Milwaukee was very positive after the tour. He thinks Milwaukee has passed up Omaha in the pecking order. Besides the media market, one reason Milwaukee is getting strong consideration is because the city produces a high number of mid-major players, who are recruiting targets for Valley schools."

It's just a guy quoting another guy about some gossip that supposedly leaked out from the MVC's visit to UW-Milw.

Maybe it's just smoke. Maybe there is some fire to it.

Seems like U Nebraska Omaha did not show well.

[bbtds]

it's 110 miles from SIU Carbondale to Murray KY;
it's 111 miles from SIU Carbondale to Evansville

It's Hwy 13 (four lane) to I-57 to I-64 from Carbondale to Evansville.

From Carbondale to Murray, KY it's pretty much impossible to get there. :-)

[valpotx]

That's a pretty good 19 year average!

[ml2]

Here is a graph of the average of 16 years worth of KenPom ratings for both the remaining MVC and HL schools, along with the rumored expansion candidates.

[a3uge]

Awesome graph, but wouldn't INSt and ILSt make more sense for abbreviations?

[agibson]

So, how bad is it for the Horizon if Valpo leaves? If Valpo _and_ Milwaukee leave?

Is the league in a scramble mode? Or, do they reasonably have some time to think about it? Scheduling, at least, would get tricky next season?

What's the minimum number of teams in a conference for an auto-bid? 7?

Are the fans scrambling?

[ml2]

A couple quick follow up thoughts:

1) ISUr = Illinois State. ISUb = Indiana State. Those seemed to be the preferred abbreviations used on the MVC fans site, so that's what I went with.

2) Someone asked for 20 years, so I gave the longest time frame I have, but honestly, a shorter duration (maybe 8 years) is probably better. I'm not sure there's much value in accounting for how good teams were when current recruits were born.

3) The shorter you make the time frame, the better things look for Valpo. We still look very good at 16 years, and that's literally as bad as you can make us look.

[SanityLost17]

A couple quick follow up thoughts:

1) ISUr = Illinois State. ISUb = Indiana State. Those seemed to be the preferred abbreviations used on the MVC fans site, so that's what I went with.

2) Someone asked for 20 years, so I gave the longest time frame I have, but honestly, a shorter duration (maybe 8 years) is probably better. I'm not sure there's much value in accounting for how good teams were when current recruits were born.

3) The shorter you make the time frame, the better things look for Valpo. We still look very good at 16 years, and that's literally as bad as you can make us look.

Your Kenpom graph is about what I expected.  I figured we would rank 4th or 5th in the MVC over the last few decades.  Interested that several MVC beat writers labeled us as the "best option in a bad list of options" considering that fact.   

[VULB#62]

Awesome graph, but wouldn't INSt and ILSt make more sense for abbreviations?

ml2 is using the standard MVC abbreviations previously explained by UNIFTW.

Never mind, Matt clarified and I was responding to a post before his post.

[RacerJoeD]

Its incredible how close Murray State and Valpo are. Definitely two of the standard bearers of Mid Major hoops.

[VU2014]

https://twitter.com/FatherHarry1/status/858030620198531072
https://twitter.com/FatherHarry1/status/858030237808021504

http://www.valleyhoopsinsider.com/the-missouri-valley-visits-are-over/

The Missouri Valley Visits Are Over

By Harry Schroeder on April 28, 2017

(St. Louis, MO) – The campus visits are over and now the Missouri Valley Conference power brokers are left with huge decisions. Do they want to add one team or multiple teams? Which campus, facility and administration impressed them the most? Which market helps the television ratings?

There may be other steps, but the campus visits to Murray State, Valparaiso, Milwaukee and Nebraska-Omaha are over and Commissioner Doug Elgin and the university presidents and athletic directors are sorting through the findings and impressions.

....................

[ml2]

Its incredible how close Murray State and Valpo are. Definitely two of the standard bearers of Mid Major hoops.

Considering the sheer numbers of possessions, games and opponent's efficiency ratings over the course of 16 years, that is a lot of math to come out with almost the exact same answer for each team, and certainly a compliment to both programs.

However over the last 7 seasons - which our MVC detractors should note includes three seasons without Alec Peters, and one season where he was a true freshman who averaged 12ppg - Valpo has been even better, relative to both Murray and everyone in the MVC not named Northern Iowa. Here is the same graph (same teams, same scale) for just the last 7 seasons.

[RacerJoeD]

I wonder what Murray St would look like without the last two years...

[Dave_2010]

I wonder what Murray St would look like without the last two years...

They would still have those 3 straight losses to Valpo...not sayin, just sayin.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[ml2]

When evaluating programs moving forward you can certainly argue about how far back it is worthwhile to look, however, I think the data you'd least want to throw out is the most recent. It's the data most reflective of the roster you'd bring into a new conference and also the "what have you done for me lately" reputation that your coaches have to leverage (or fight against) in current recruiting battles.

All that being said...ask and ye shall receive.

From 2010-11 through 2014-15 Murray State does edge out Valpo 7.40 to 6.51.  In addition apparent MVC standard bearer UNI looks even better at 10.95.

[RacerJoeD]

What that data tells me is this-

If you care about the quality of the basketball product, add both Murray State and Valpo to the MVC.

[vu84v2]

Valpo RPIs for last 7 years:
2016-2017: 72
2015-2016: 49
2014-2015: 50
2013-2014: 190
2012-2013: 59
2011-2012: 97
2010-2011: 79

Northern Iowa's RPI the last 7 years:
2016-2017: 161
2015-2016: 73
2014-2015: 15
2013-2014: 109
2012-2013: 80
2011-2012: 72
2010-2011: 99

Murray State's RPI for the last 7 years:
2016-2017: 229
2015-2016: 170
2014-2015: 64
2013-2014: 144
2012-2013: 113
2011-2012: 23
2010-2011: 115

[valpotx]

Someone add Illinois State's RPI list.  They have some really cocky fans, and seem to be the most outspoken against adding Valpo...

[elephtheria47]

There's more people closer than me but thought id share what i heard this week....been hearing that the visit went well, MVC was still disappointed in the facilities but that likely isnt going to be a hold up this time. There is some resistance in the valpo admin, but the feeling is that if a MVC invite comes along that there's enough pull to make it happen. Just thought id pass that info along..this should all be wrapping up in a week or two hopefully

[wh]

There's more people closer than me but thought id share what i heard this week....been hearing that the visit went well, MVC was still disappointed in the facilities but that likely isnt going to be a hold up this time. There is some resistance in the valpo admin, but the feeling is that if a MVC invite comes along that there's enough pull to make it happen. Just thought id pass that info along..this should all be wrapping up in a week or two hopefully

My reaction after reading this:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BR6mWneKsbs

This administration (and its predecessor) has the most difficult time getting out of its own way when it comes to fully supporting the university's hugely successful flagship sport. I'm starting to become a believer in "privilege" because these people haven't done a damn thing to deserve what they have. They don't feel any responsibility to nurture it, or grow it, or leave it better than they found it. They're just takers.

At the same time, I have great empathy for ml. He has to have the most difficult job at Valpo dealing with people who don't have his back.

[valpotx]

Whoever is giving pushback in the administration, needs to be fired.  I would have to think that even academic leaders would see the benefits of being in an athletic conference with other highly ranked private schools...

[ISUBird]

Someone add Illinois State's RPI list.  They have some really cocky fans, and seem to be the most outspoken against adding Valpo...

You're basing this off of what?

[justducky]

I found this assessment from the "Shock Waves" article to provide an interesting approach to a 12 team, 18 game schedule.

Jesse Kramer, thecatchandshoot.com

Losing Wichita State is of course a huge blow for the MVC's profile, but the opportunity for expansion gives the conference a chance to improve its ability to manipulate RPI for postseason selection and league reputation. But that's only if they go to 12 teams, ideally adding Murray State, Valpo and Milwaukee, and stick with an 18-game league schedule rather than moving to a 20-game slate.

With 18 games rather than 20, the MVC can try to manipulate its conference schedule based on preseason expectations to have the best teams play each twice while playing the worst teams only once. This is a strategy the 11-team MAAC will start using in the 2017-18 season largely as a response to Monmouth getting snubbed from the NCAA Tournament.

Here's an idea of how it could work in practice. (Of course the RPI numbers I'm about to use would change a bit based on Wichita State no longer being in the Valley, but let's roll with it.) Say this year's Illinois State team (No. 39 RPI) got to play Valpo (No. 78 RPI) twice and got rid of a game against Drake (No. 316 RPI). Maybe that schedule alteration gets them into the RPI Top 30 with two more "top 100 wins," and that could have been enough to get the Redbirds into the First Four instead of the NIT.

Preseason projections can be flawed so deciding who should have a home-and-home could backfire now and then, but generally they are pretty accurate.

And to be clear, the MVC should not have waited until Wichita State left to think about expanding to 12 teams. If they had tried earlier to strengthen the league and manipulate RPI to help postseason prospects for top teams, there's at least a chance that the Shockers would still be around.


He doesn't advocate two geographic divisions as most people are promoting with a 12 team conference.  His approach is very pragmatic.  Manipulate the schedule to optimize teams RPI, regardless of location, so that there is a better chance for the MVC to return to multi-bid status.  He states that the MAAC is going in that direction.

Not trying to hog the credit but looks exactly like my 12 team proposal dropped last year and reintroduced recently (maybe this thread?) with a 14 team option to arrive at 19 league games.

Scheduling for a yearly floating halves conference looks like the trickiest part but if they can pull something like this off then they should give it a go!  The SOS and RPI benefits could be significant.