Valpo to be visited by MVC this week, thoughts?

[VULB#62]

Who cares?? That pole doesn't matter for anything.

If you don't see the pole while driving, it could mean quite a lot to you.

Most of the time race car drivers are looking to get the pole. Funny thing is I don't pay much attention to racing.

And having a last name that ends in 'zky' I resent the fact that even just one Pole does not matter.

[oklahomamick]

Central Arkansas is the only associate member.  Southland conference does not have men's soccer. 

[StlVUFan]

We could just freely admit that 18 games (playing each team only twice) is not enough to determine who stands out as the best team

I'm not sure I am as willing to freely admit this merely on the basis stated here, since I believe there really are 90 games played (rather than just 18) in a 10-team home-and-home conference schedule. When one considers a 90-game sample with an 18-game sample, then the odds of the best team rising to the top seem more solid and the margin of error is reduced.

18 games per team is obviously what I meant.  In that light, 90 games total is exactly as small a sample size as 18 per team is.

The sample must be big enough to be highly reliable. Of all the conferences this past season, only two had a first-place regular season champion that did not also have the highest RPI ranking in their conference. In both cases the second-place team was the highest ranked in RPI, and one by only a single spot in the overall rankings. That's about a 95% accuracy.

I don't think I'm getting through to you.  18 games is nowhere near enough time to be satisfied that all the weird stuff evens out (lucky bounces, crucial bad calls, freak injuries, schedule quirks - some teams having longer road trips and more busy streaks than other teams, etc.).  You only play each time twice.  Very shaky.  To say nothing of having to settle who the #1 seed is by a frigging tiebreaker.  Billy Donlon was absolutely right last year when he complained about losing the double-bye because of a tiebreaker.

There's no way they can play enough games to iron out all the wrinkles and give a reliable read.  There's only one of the four major sports - and then only at one level - where the regular season is large enough to prove who the best team is simply by looking at the standings: Major League Baseball (by best team, obviously I mean best team in each division).

By the way, just in case you're interested, this is why I am adamantly opposed (for all the good it does me) to the wildcard system in MLB.  I'll never get my way, but I'll never give in, either

[bbtds]

Central Arkansas is the only associate member.  Southland conference does not have men's soccer. 

According to the MVC website men's soccer includes Central Arkansas and Southern Illinois of the Edwardsville variety. Carbondale does not have men's soccer.

Baseball finished

Missouri State
Dallas Baptist
Indiana State
Wichita State
Southern Illinois (Carbondale)
Evansville
Bradley
Illinois State

[bbtds]

Volleyball

Missouri State   16-2   26-9
Wichita State   15-3   24-8
UNI   14-4   24-10
Southern Illinois   12-6   21-12
Illinois State   9-9   17-15
Loyola   9-9   14-18
Drake   8-10   17-15
Indiana State   4-14   10-20
Bradley   2-16   7-22
Evansville   1-17   5-26

Women's soccer

Illinois State   5-0-1   14-6-3
Evansville   3-2-1   4-12-3
UNI   2-2-2   8-8-3
Indiana State   2-3-1   7-11-2
Drake   2-3-1   12-4-3
Loyola   2-4-0   5-11-3
Missouri State   1-3-2   5-8-4

[bbtds]

Men's soccer standings

Loyola   6-1-1   14-4-1
SIUE   4-1-3   10-5-7
Evansville   4-2-2   10-8-3
Central Arkansas   4-3-1   7-7-3
Missouri State   3-4-1   9-8-3
Drake   2-5-1   6-12-1
Bradley   0-7-1   2-15-3

[VULB#62]

Very little to compare, but MSO is always +/- 1 with Loyola. (Agibson?)  I think WSO is about the same. In volleyball, I am guessing we will fall into the middle of the pack to start.  But I also also think that with being in the MVC we will get that one or two difference makers and get back to being in the title hunt.

Bsseball and softball is Tex's domain.

Tennis and golf are strange given the MVC setup. I can' figure where we'd fit. We definitely are losing two great players in MT.

[valpotx]

Anyone who isn't on board with an MVC move hasn't been following their conference.  They get multiple bids in just about every sport, though not as often recently in Men's Basketball.  They get multiple bids in baseball, volleyball, softball, etc.

That was at a time when WSU and CREIGHTON were in the league.  ITS NOT THE SAME LEAGUE, just like the HL is not the same league post Butler.

No, it was not.  Wichita State and Creighton were not the reason that the MVC received multiple bids in sports outside of Men's Basketball.  Let's look at 2 examples:

Baseball - 1 bid by Dallas Baptist in 2016, but 3 in 2015 with Bradley, Missouri State, and Dallas Baptist.  Missouri State is currently leading the conference, while Wichita State is middle of the pack.  Survey says, Wichita State is not the reason they received multiple bids in Baseball recently.  Conference still receives multiple bids without WSU.

Volleyball - 3 bids in 2016 with Missouri State, Northern Iowa, and Wichita State, but 4 in 2015 with Missouri State, Northern Iowa, Southern Illinois, and Wichita State.  Survey says, conference still receives multiple bids without WSU.

The conference is in much better position to get multiple bids in all sports, versus what we have in the HL.  I know that Men's Basketball hasn't been as successful recently in gaining multiple bids, but is in obvious position to have that possibility, much more so than the HL.

[wh]

We could just freely admit that 18 games (playing each team only twice) is not enough to determine who stands out as the best team

I'm not sure I am as willing to freely admit this merely on the basis stated here, since I believe there really are 90 games played (rather than just 18) in a 10-team home-and-home conference schedule. When one considers a 90-game sample with an 18-game sample, then the odds of the best team rising to the top seem more solid and the margin of error is reduced.

18 games per team is obviously what I meant.  In that light, 90 games total is exactly as small a sample size as 18 per team is.

The sample must be big enough to be highly reliable. Of all the conferences this past season, only two had a first-place regular season champion that did not also have the highest RPI ranking in their conference. In both cases the second-place team was the highest ranked in RPI, and one by only a single spot in the overall rankings. That's about a 95% accuracy.

• Since 1992, 12 of 24 teams that won the National Championship lost in their conference tournament. So much for theories that conference tournaments somehow determine the best team, best team at that point in the season, blah, blah, blah.

Other fun facts:

• Half of the national champions in the past quarter century wouldn't have even been in the tournament had they come from single bid conferences like the HL and MVC. What??
• The last four, as well as five of the last six NCAA Tournament champions, fell in their conference tournaments.
• 7 of the 12 national champions that lost in their conference tournaments didn't even play in the conference tournament championship game. This includes 2017 national champion North Carolina. The Tar Heels won the ACC regular season championship by 2 games, then lost in the ACC Tournament semi-finals.

All these theories about conference tournaments revealing the best team is just fodder for fan message boards. A single weekend, single-elimination event where the championship team doesn't even play 2/3 of the teams in the field is a pathetic indicator of anything meaningful when compared to the regular season where every team plays every other team twice. Conferences went for decades without tournaments. It wasn't until the advent of big TV contracts that conference tournaments became popular. It's just another money grab disguised as something important and necessary in order to lure the paying public in. Sports marketing at its best. 

March Madness: How did the last 25 national champions do in their conference tournaments?

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.ncaa.com/amp/news/basketball-men/bracket-beat/2017-03-07/march-madness-how-did-last-25-national-champions-do

[oklahomamick]

Stlvufan says 18 games to small a sample size to determine the best team.  I believe 10 team tournament at "neutral" site is too small of a sample size.

HL has to find a way to send its best team.

[bbtds]

By your measurement then the NCAA tournament is another example of too small a sample size. The reason the Big Dance is so exciting is due to the small sample size. Small sample size is the reason college basketball is so much better at establishing excitement among the fans than the NBA.

[wh]

By your measurement then the NCAA tournament is another example of too small a sample size. The reason the Big Dance is so exciting is due to the small sample size. Small sample size is the reason college basketball is so much better at establishing excitement among the fans than the NBA.

As a matter of fact, statistically it is a completely meaningless sample size. That said, logistically there is no better method of determining the "best" among 68 teams that may or may not have played each other during the regular season.

[FieldGoodie05]

Anyone who isn't on board with an MVC move hasn't been following their conference.  They get multiple bids in just about every sport, though not as often recently in Men's Basketball.  They get multiple bids in baseball, volleyball, softball, etc.

That was at a time when WSU and CREIGHTON were in the league.  ITS NOT THE SAME LEAGUE, just like the HL is not the same league post Butler.

No, it was not.  Wichita State and Creighton were not the reason that the MVC received multiple bids in sports outside of Men's Basketball.  Let's look at 2 examples:

Baseball - 1 bid by Dallas Baptist in 2016, but 3 in 2015 with Bradley, Missouri State, and Dallas Baptist.  Missouri State is currently leading the conference, while Wichita State is middle of the pack.  Survey says, Wichita State is not the reason they received multiple bids in Baseball recently.  Conference still receives multiple bids without WSU.

Volleyball - 3 bids in 2016 with Missouri State, Northern Iowa, and Wichita State, but 4 in 2015 with Missouri State, Northern Iowa, Southern Illinois, and Wichita State.  Survey says, conference still receives multiple bids without WSU.

The conference is in much better position to get multiple bids in all sports, versus what we have in the HL.  I know that Men's Basketball hasn't been as successful recently in gaining multiple bids, but is in obvious position to have that possibility, much more so than the HL.

MBB is all I care about, sadly.

[Dave_2010]

18 games per team is obviously what I meant.  In that light, 90

I don't think I'm getting through to you.  18 games is nowhere near enough time to be satisfied that all the weird stuff evens out (lucky bounces, crucial bad calls, freak injuries, schedule quirks - some teams having longer road trips and more busy streaks than other teams, etc.).  You only play each time twice.  Very shaky.  To say nothing of having to settle who the #1 seed is by a frigging tiebreaker.  Billy Donlon was absolutely right last year when he complained about losing the double-bye because of a tiebreaker.

There's no way they can play enough games to iron out all the wrinkles and give a reliable read.  There's only one of the four major sports - and then only at one level - where the regular season is large enough to prove who the best team is simply by looking at the standings: Major League Baseball (by best team, obviously I mean best team in each division).

By the way, just in case you're interested, this is why I am adamantly opposed (for all the good it does me) to the wildcard system in MLB.  I'll never get my way, but I'll never give in, either

Here's where you lose me. In a 10 team,  double round robin, every team gets a pair of games, one home one away, against the other 9. If that isn't the most equitable way to determine a conference champion given the NCAA restrictions, I don't know what is. It's certainly more reasonable that a 3-5 day single elimination tournament making kids play back to backs for the first time all season.

I struggle with the idea of conference tournaments in 1 bid leagues. You aren't doing anyone any favors putting a mid-league finisher in the tournament over your best team from the last 12 weeks.



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[vu72]

Anyone who isn't on board with an MVC move hasn't been following their conference.  They get multiple bids in just about every sport, though not as often recently in Men's Basketball.  They get multiple bids in baseball, volleyball, softball, etc.

That was at a time when WSU and CREIGHTON were in the league.  ITS NOT THE SAME LEAGUE, just like the HL is not the same league post Butler.

No, it was not.  Wichita State and Creighton were not the reason that the MVC received multiple bids in sports outside of Men's Basketball.  Let's look at 2 examples:

Baseball - 1 bid by Dallas Baptist in 2016, but 3 in 2015 with Bradley, Missouri State, and Dallas Baptist.  Missouri State is currently leading the conference, while Wichita State is middle of the pack.  Survey says, Wichita State is not the reason they received multiple bids in Baseball recently.  Conference still receives multiple bids without WSU.

Volleyball - 3 bids in 2016 with Missouri State, Northern Iowa, and Wichita State, but 4 in 2015 with Missouri State, Northern Iowa, Southern Illinois, and Wichita State.  Survey says, conference still receives multiple bids without WSU.

The conference is in much better position to get multiple bids in all sports, versus what we have in the HL.  I know that Men's Basketball hasn't been as successful recently in gaining multiple bids, but is in obvious position to have that possibility, much more so than the HL.

MBB is all I care about, sadly.

And fortunately for us, MBB seems to be the only thing the Valley is focused on.  Although we have had some success in other sports in recent years, this year, with softball and baseball to go, other then a tie for the regular season basketball title, the only champion we have had was Men's Tennis.  Wow!  Talk about a run on sentence!!

[StlVUFan]

Stlvufan says 18 games to small a sample size to determine the best team.  I believe 10 team tournament at "neutral" site is too small of a sample size.

HL has to find a way to send its best team.

There is no way to send your best team.  I never said the conference tournament was a big enough sample size.  You send your champion, not your best team.  You hope your champion *is* your best team, but that's about the best you can do.  Sort of like the slogan that used to appear on the big wall-size brackets NIPSCO used to hand out for Hoosier Hysteria when I was a kid (well, my Mom worked there and I always got one):

"May the best team win."  (Notice that it is a plea, not a prediction or an equation)

[StlVUFan]

By your measurement then the NCAA tournament is another example of too small a sample size.

Yes.

There is no solution to the small sample size problem in MBB.  Maybe I'm not making that clear enough.  My argument is that we should dispense with this notion of identifying "best teams", at least when it comes to rigging conference tournaments.

[StlVUFan]

18 games per team is obviously what I meant.  In that light, 90

I don't think I'm getting through to you.  18 games is nowhere near enough time to be satisfied that all the weird stuff evens out (lucky bounces, crucial bad calls, freak injuries, schedule quirks - some teams having longer road trips and more busy streaks than other teams, etc.).  You only play each time twice.  Very shaky.  To say nothing of having to settle who the #1 seed is by a frigging tiebreaker.  Billy Donlon was absolutely right last year when he complained about losing the double-bye because of a tiebreaker.

There's no way they can play enough games to iron out all the wrinkles and give a reliable read.  There's only one of the four major sports - and then only at one level - where the regular season is large enough to prove who the best team is simply by looking at the standings: Major League Baseball (by best team, obviously I mean best team in each division).

By the way, just in case you're interested, this is why I am adamantly opposed (for all the good it does me) to the wildcard system in MLB.  I'll never get my way, but I'll never give in, either

Here's where you lose me. In a 10 team,  double round robin, every team gets a pair of games, one home one away, against the other 9. If that isn't the most equitable way to determine a conference champion given the NCAA restrictions, I don't know what is. It's certainly more reasonable that a 3-5 day single elimination tournament making kids play back to backs for the first time all season.

I struggle with the idea of conference tournaments in 1 bid leagues. You aren't doing anyone any favors putting a mid-league finisher in the tournament over your best team from the last 12 weeks.



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Apparently I am losing people because I'm not making myself understood very well.

This was not an argument for a better way to determine who the best team is.  My argument is there is no statistically reliable way to determine that, so why pretend?

The 18 game regular season + a conference tournament seeded according to that regular season *is* the best way to determine a champion (not the best team).

I don't attend the conference tournament to find out who the best team is.  I attend the conference tournament to see mayhem and which team will be left standing.  I've given up the fantasy of seeing definitive proof who the best team is.

[oklahomamick]

20115-2016 Crusader team, best team in the HL that year?  With the format of 18 games and a conference tournament (lack of sample size...) we can't make that decision.

Of course they were, they set a scoring margin record in the HL.  18 games was plenty of sample size. 

I respectively disagree that playing each team twice home/away is enough sample size to identify the best team out of 10. 

[oklahomamick]

You send your champion, not your best team.  You hope your champion *is* your best team

Instead of hoping....How can the conference manipulate the tournament so that the champion is your best team?

The HL representative indeed should be the best team.  LeCrone was innovative (and probably listened to Butler) came up with the double byes and champion hosting.  LeCrone thinking outside the box and a pioneer at the time (or just listened to Butler).  LeCrone did not follow, "what are the others doing" method. 

Instead he took small guaranteed cash (cash in which i hope we use to pay exit fee to leave this  show) LeCrone moved it to Detroit (probably listened to Kampe). 

*Disclaimer - StLVUfan I respect what your saying and understand.  I just don't agree.  But thats what the forum is for, fans expressing their thoughts and opinions.  Every game I attend I always look for you to say hello.  You are a big fan of VU and even a larger fan of college hoops. 

[Valpo89]

Maybe StLU thinks every conference team should play a 7-game series against every other team. 3 at home, 3 on the road and one neutral site - just to be fair - and THEN we have an accurate reading of who the best team is. Maybe. But then he'd still want to take his trip to Detroit.

[Dave_2010]

Maybe StLU thinks every conference team should play a 7-game series against every other team. 3 at home, 3 on the road and one neutral site - just to be fair - and THEN we have an accurate reading of who the best team is. Maybe. But then he'd still want to take his trip to Detroit.

Only if the neutral site games are played in Detroit...wouldn't want to upset Kampe.


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[oklahomamick]

Ki

Maybe StLU thinks every conference team should play a 7-game series against every other team. 3 at home, 3 on the road and one neutral site - just to be fair - and THEN we have an accurate reading of who the best team is. Maybe. But then he'd still want to take his trip to Detroit.

Only if the neutral site games are played in Detroit...wouldn't want to upset Kampe. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

King Kampe to you

[VU2014]

Former UNI Athletic Director and a current Division I college basketball official Rick Hartzell (refs a lot of Valpo Games at the ARC), went on a UNI radio station to talk about MVC expansion talk and he almost talks about Valpo going to the MVC as a fait accompli. They talk for 20-30 minutes and its very heavy talking about Valpo that whole time. He talks about what he thinks of the ARC and about how he see Valpo as a fit from his point of view from a former MVC athletics director point of view.

Worth a listen, imo. (start at 21:50).
http://onpressrow.com/test/2017/05/04/on-press-row-5417-presented-by-whiskey-road-tavern-grill/

[VU2014]

Seems like Mark Adams thinks they will only be adding 1 school this time around...
https://twitter.com/MichaelSprieser/status/861393991694200837
https://twitter.com/EnthusiAdams/status/861538256625831936