2013 Football

[78crusader]

I know less about football than just about anyone else on this board but here is my prediction for 2013:  6-5

Paul

[usc4valpo]

I know less about football than just about anyone else on this board but here is my prediction for 2013: 6-5 Paul

Dude, keep drinking that Brown and Gold Koolaid

2-9, being optimistic

[covufan]

Another football season, another poll. 

We have a favorable schedule this year, with a team we should have beat last year (St. Joe), a team we did beat (Campbell), a team new to football (Mercer), and a Div II team we should beat (William Jewell).  This team should be 4-2 after the Mercer game. 

Massey has us winning 4 games, and not very competitive in the remaining games:

http://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=8361&s=199231

[covufan]

I know less about football than just about anyone else on this board but here is my prediction for 2013:  6-5

At first glance I thought this was crazy.  After looking at the schedule, we should win at least four games.  If Carlson's team has improved, and we get a little lucky, we might win two more.

I'm going with 5-6:

http://www.valpofanzone.com/forum/index.php?topic=1519.0

[vu72]

I spoke with a freshman player coming to Valpo from the Houston area.  He is flying in Saturday August 3 with practice starting August 4.  The players are firedup and remember, something like 30 of them stayed at Valpo all summer to lift and train.  Who knows how that will translate to the field but we will have a starting quarterback who is a junior which is something we haven't had in a long time.

[valpotx]

I say that we win 4 games this year.  I don't see a D-2 team as a slam dunk win however.  I am picking us to beat St. Joe's, Campbell, Mercer, and one of the remaining conference teams in a surprise win (not sure which team it will be). 

[valpotx]

I like our QB.  I wish that they threw the ball deeper at times.  We have thrown the WR screen pass much too often over the last few seasons.

[VULB#62]

William Jewell was 2-9 last year and lost to St. Joe's 45-65.  While no team is a slam dunk for Valpo, I think a reinvigorated Campbell under Minter is more of a challenge.  But once past UND (and healthy I hope) they could run a string of 3 in a row and be 3-1 going into Marist. These kids have never won more than 1 in a row, so with three under their belt the confidence and determination could be sky high.  That could mean a win in Poughkeepsie (or a close loss).  Then comes Mercer and a possible win to go 4-2.  At that point it's anybody's guess as to who else might provide a win for us, but I'm thinking we win 4 in 2013 (but play tough in most losses and lose close ones to MSU and Drake).

[willy]

I think winning two to five games is realistic if they use a balanced attack and Jake Hutson rushes for 1000 yards.  I don't think any of them will be easy though!  I've read several topics on here and many people seem pleased with our quarterback play.  I did some comparing to other teams in the PFL and our quarterback play is well below average.  The average for QB's in the conference is 16 TD's, 8 Interceptions and 16yards rushing per game.  The last two years we have thrown as many interceptions as we have touchdowns.  I don't think we should be complacent at the QB spot, We need major improvement.  Hopefully new Coach Evans will help with the QB play.

[valpotx]

You have to take into account that we don't throw the ball down the field, so Hoffman is very unlikely to have many TD passes.  Everything has been a screen or a draw for the most part.  This isn't David Macchi's Air Raid offense from when I was in school 

[covufan]

We either have someone who mis-hit one of the voting buttons, or they really voted for 9 or more wins!  Very optimistic!  Way to be positive!

[willy]

You have to take into account that we don't throw the ball down the field, so Hoffman is very unlikely to have many TD passes. Everything has been a screen or a draw for the most part. This isn't David Macchi's Air Raid offense from when I was in school

If we don't throw the ball down the field then we should never have as many interceptions as touchdowns.  All I'm saying is just because we have the starter returning doesn't mean he should automatically be given the job. If the QB play was above average or even average ok, but we are not even average.  Bring on some competition at all positions!

[valporun]

willy, too often when throwing the WR screen passes, it would right into the kind of traffic that could tip the ball and a defensive player would receive the tip, leading to some of those interceptions. Also, due to underthrowing the receiver, often the ball was picked off. Some of our issues were due to youth in the positions, not so much because the QB was bad. Also, some of the coaching decisions about what play to call ended up being so repetitive that the defensive coordinator might already be one play ahead of us before we were even thinking two plays ahead.

[willy]

Valpo is picked for tenth place in the PFL according to the new Coaches poll.  Ahead of only two schools Stetson and Mercer who have football for the first time in forty years.  If the coaches are right it will be a two win season.  Not enough progress to keep this regime around for another year.  Coach retention is a huge problem!  This year alone we have four new coaches, half the staff is new.

[vu72]

Some VERY good news on the kicking front.  An All-Stater has picked Valpo!

http://www.thedcregister.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=11934:newman-opts-for-valparaiso-lburg-all-state-kicker-sees-opportunity&catid=87:lawrenceburg-high-school&Itemid=134

http://seilocalsports.com/football/32594/

[valpotx]

History has shown that Kickers/Punters don't need to play at the FBS level to advance in their career.  As long as they get their opportunities, a 50+ yard kick is a 50+ yard kick, regardles of competition  .

[VUdad]

willy, too often when throwing the WR screen passes, it would right into the kind of traffic that could tip the ball and a defensive player would receive the tip, leading to some of those interceptions. Also, due to underthrowing the receiver, often the ball was picked off. Some of our issues were due to youth in the positions, not so much because the QB was bad. Also, some of the coaching decisions about what play to call ended up being so repetitive that the defensive coordinator might already be one play ahead of us before we were even thinking two plays ahead.

I'm with Willy on this. The Valpo offense doesn't call for plays--it's based on formations + decisions. In other words, all those quick tosses to receivers at the line of scrimmage are as a result of a QB read and a QB decision. Watch how teams defend us and you'll see they back their DB's off to entice our QB to throw that pass--it's the safe toss. However, the defense knows it's coming and can react quickly, allowing us a whopping -1 to +2 yards. The interceptions typically took place downfield, not on the quick tosses. One way to break us out of this rut is to develop the mid-level pass. When mids work, the defense will shift. One big factor is the line giving the QB a half second more to see mid routes on both sides and the tight end release. Keep up the quick toss and the occasional long ball, though, and TD count will remain low, yards to completion ratio remains low, and (sadly) the defense can direct more attention to stopping the run. Just one man's opinion, though...

[VUdad]

Valpo is picked for tenth place in the PFL according to the new Coaches poll.  Ahead of only two schools Stetson and Mercer who have football for the first time in forty years.  If the coaches are right it will be a two win season.  Not enough progress to keep this regime around for another year.  Coach retention is a huge problem!  This year alone we have four new coaches, half the staff is new.

Coaching changes can go either way--create confusion because of new expectations or create energy because something has changed. Let's hope for the latter. Heard of some off-season hard luck; the tall QB with the big arm had knee surgery (Stahl), and a big hitting d-lineman had shoulder surgery (Broshar). Let's hope we stay healthy the rest of the year.

[VULB#62]

The 2013-14 Roster is posted on the FB web site.

http://www.valpoathletics.com/football/roster/

As close as I can count there are 112 names of which 35 are incoming freshmen.  It includes the recently signed All-State kicker from Lawrenceburg, Indiana. Some nice qulifications for kids from some FB happy states (OH, FL, TX).  Let's hope these young kids come in and push the veterans. 

[willy]

willy, too often when throwing the WR screen passes, it would right into the kind of traffic that could tip the ball and a defensive player would receive the tip, leading to some of those interceptions. Also, due to underthrowing the receiver, often the ball was picked off. Some of our issues were due to youth in the positions, not so much because the QB was bad. Also, some of the coaching decisions about what play to call ended up being so repetitive that the defensive coordinator might already be one play ahead of us before we were even thinking two plays ahead.

I'm with Willy on this. The Valpo offense doesn't call for plays--it's based on formations + decisions. In other words, all those quick tosses to receivers at the line of scrimmage are as a result of a QB read and a QB decision. Watch how teams defend us and you'll see they back their DB's off to entice our QB to throw that pass--it's the safe toss. However, the defense knows it's coming and can react quickly, allowing us a whopping -1 to +2 yards. The interceptions typically took place downfield, not on the quick tosses. One way to break us out of this rut is to develop the mid-level pass. When mids work, the defense will shift. One big factor is the line giving the QB a half second more to see mid routes on both sides and the tight end release. Keep up the quick toss and the occasional long ball, though, and TD count will remain low, yards to completion ratio remains low, and (sadly) the defense can direct more attention to stopping the run. Just one man's opinion, though...

You hit the nail on the head VUdad!  Our completion percentage will always be high and the TD's low because we always check down to the easy throw.  Teams we play will Squat thier corner in the flats and we consistently throw there for little to no gain.  When I played our coaches motto was we will give them the two yard completion and rally to the ball.  we are throwing the ball exactly where the defense wants us to, advantage defense!

[willy]

Valpo is picked for tenth place in the PFL according to the new Coaches poll. Ahead of only two schools Stetson and Mercer who have football for the first time in forty years. If the coaches are right it will be a two win season. Not enough progress to keep this regime around for another year. Coach retention is a huge problem! This year alone we have four new coaches, half the staff is new.

Coaching changes can go either way--create confusion because of new expectations or create energy because something has changed. Let's hope for the latter. Heard of some off-season hard luck; a quick/strong DB decided not to return (Graham), the tall QB with the big arm had knee surgery (Stahl), and a big hitting linebacker had shoulder surgery (not sure of name). Let's hope we stay healthy the rest of the year.

I'm a big believer in continuity and team chemistry.  In Carlsons four years 13 coaches have left the program.  In my oppinion this should be a huge red flag to the university and addressed immediately.  It might not be Carlson's fault, Maybe the university has not comitted the resources necessary to keeping a quality staff? The kids see the coaches leaving the team and has me wondering as a player what they are thinking?

[usc4valpo]

Valpo is picked for tenth place in the PFL according to the new Coaches poll. Ahead of only two schools Stetson and Mercer who have football for the first time in forty years. If the coaches are right it will be a two win season. Not enough progress to keep this regime around for another year. Coach retention is a huge problem! This year alone we have four new coaches, half the staff is new.

Coaching changes can go either way--create confusion because of new expectations or create energy because something has changed. Let's hope for the latter. Heard of some off-season hard luck; a quick/strong DB decided not to return (Graham), the tall QB with the big arm had knee surgery (Stahl), and a big hitting linebacker had shoulder surgery (not sure of name). Let's hope we stay healthy the rest of the year.

I'm a big believer in continuity and team chemistry. In Carlsons four years 13 coaches have left the program. In my oppinion this should be a huge red flag to the university and addressed immediately. It might not be Carlson's fault, Maybe the university has not comitted the resources necessary to keeping a quality staff? The kids see the coaches leaving the team and has me wondering as a player what they are thinking?

OK, this is a very good, objective observation compared to all the positive, over-optimisitic  info being presented by the valpo website and others. The frequent coaching transfer is a very bad indicator, no matter what excuses exist.   If coaches keep bailing out and 1-to-2 win seasons continue, we have a holistic systematic problem that cannot be traced to just Carlson (don't get me wrong, he has nice inspirational quotes but he has not met expectations).  Perhaps Valpo is not a decent school to coach football, perhaps the facilities are below par.  Perhaps football needs to get scraped if these issues are not addressed soon.

Lane Kiffin may be looking next year...and he will take a paycut.

[willy]

Looking at the roster it appears this years incoming Freshmen class has some pretty good size!  Several kids 265 pounds and up.  Football sucess starts up front with good linemen on both sides of the ball.  If anyone gets a chance to see a practice in person, let us know how they look.

[covufan]

Looking at the roster it appears this years incoming Freshmen class has some pretty good size!  Several kids 265 pounds and up.  Football sucess starts up front with good linemen on both sides of the ball.  If anyone gets a chance to see a practice in person, let us know how they look.

I hope that several of the freshmen are on the two-deep roster come 29 August.  If not, it could be a long season.

[vu72]

A nice video from our opening opponent, North Dakota: (wait through a couple of pictures and then you can click on "opening drive"

http://www.undsports.com/SportSelect.dbml?DB_OEM_ID=13500&SPID=6399&SPSID=58640