2013 Football

[covufan]

I also attended the game but came away unsure what to think about this years team.  With the 1 and 2's playing the 3 and 4's talent evaluation is nearly impossible.  I think the team would have benefitted from a more balanced team split than the offense walking up and down the field and the defense playing a limited play selection offense because of youth and inexperience.

I was not there, but was thinking the same thing.  I'm not a coach, but I would have put in the 3rd or 4th O-Line with the 1st team backfield for some series.  Likewise switch out D-Line, linebackers and secondary to see how well the defense or offense adjusts.

[VUdad]

To the UND Guy:

The unbalanced score from the recent scrimmage happened because the Brown team included all the #1 & 2 players, with 3s & 4s on Gold. The two new RBs made the best impressions--Hall and Conway. Hall is a tank who can cut well, Conway is very fast. The QB Hoffman started to (finally) throw the ball downfield, which opens up the run--which buys time for the QB to throw, and on and on. If that can become habit, the offense will make the long-awaited turnaround. Solid group of athletic receivers, but the returning RBs (Hutson and Baker) are injured, so we're lean in that area. The kicking game is wobbly; two PATs missed. Punting didn't look much better--watch out for those areas to be our Achilles heels this year. For the QBs, Hoffman looked solid. The O line appeared to be improved. The defensive line has some real promise, and size. LBs stuck tackles better than in the past and pursued plays well, and the DBs showed strong speed. Still need better coverage decisions, though, to avoid those costly big plays that have killed us in previous years. And a decent showing in the stands.

Are you guys running the same offense as the past few years?  I have seen some highlights and it looks like a shotgun-spread type of look with 3-4 receivers?  Didn't know if they changed because with all the new additions to the offensive staff.

Our offense sets seem to remain unchanged year to year. The play executed, though, depends a lot on the read made by the QB. For that reason, the offense can change quite a bit. And for that reason, it hasn't changed a lot in the past couple years. if the game rhythm changes though, the reads should change. Giving the ball to Hutson more would change the predictability. Letting the new RB Hall carry it when Hutson is out and the defense thinks "pass" will change the rhythm too. If our defense doesn't give up as many long plays, keeps their offense on the field longer, and doesn't allow a huge score gap to exist at the end of the first quarter, the rhythm changes. You read it here first...

[covufan]

OK, one more day to get your votes in for 2013 Football season projections!

[covufan]

Voting is over.  How many want to change their vote?

[valpotx]

I am still good with my 3-4 wins prediction.  We haven't ever played well against the scholarship or Ivy League programs, even when we had good teams.  I remember getting blown out by Yale at the Yale Bowl when I was in school, which I believe was one of the years we won the PFL.

[milanmiracle]

Just did some quick math...the winning percentage under this staff is......6%.  Enough said.

[covufan]

Just did some quick math...the winning percentage under this staff is......6%.  Enough said.

To get to where Stacy Adams was after 4 seasons, wait this staff can't get there - they would need 12 more wins this season!  To get to Adams' record after five seasons (after which he was fired), Carlson would need to win 13 more games over this season and next year.  Tough to do.

To get to where Tom Horne was after five years (winning percentage wise), Carlson needs to win 9 more games over this year and next.  To do that we can't give up long scoring plays from scrimage or every time we kick or punt the ball. 

Enough said.

[valpotx]

You have to take into account that Adams' record should reflect the first 1-2 seasons of Carlson's Valpo career as well.  We were definitely getting worse with him at the helm, which led to the state we are in now.

[vu72]

I just looked up some facts from the record book.  Over the last 14 years and three coaches, Valpo has played scholarship teams 8 times with an average result of losing 58-5, including losses
to Tenn Tech 62-10 in 2002, Murray State 34-0 in 2003 (when we last won the PFL), ND State 52-0, SD State 69-6, Western Illinois 45-0, YSU 77-13 and 59-0, and of course North Dakota 69-10.

The combined record over those 14 seasons is 41-104--to date.

I can live with mediocrity--say, 5-6 but not 1-10.  Of bigger concern is not the beatings administered by the bigger schools, it is much more important.  How have we done against BUTLER ?!!  Beat Butler and the season is a success--period.  So, let's take a look at the results:  In 2000, 2004, 2005 and 2007 we won!  That's 4-9 with this season's game to come. Of as much importance are the scores.  If we lose 25-21 like in 2003, that's one thing.  If we lose 48-0 like in 2010, that is quite another.  Over Carlson's first three seasons we averaged losing to Butler 49-10!!  Humiliating.

I am now firmly on board to fire the entire football staff if we aren't at least competitive with Butler this year and, win at least 4 games.  Enough is enough.   

[setshot]

Agree! Too bad it wasn't done last year. Of note,Sagarin has VU listed at 246. More positive is the fact that our beloved Clemson Tigers are ranked 4/5 by AP and USA TODAY. USC is just behind at 6/6. GO COCKS!

[chef]

We've actually played a lot more scholarship teams in the last 14 years. My friend 72 is pointing out the top teams we've played, but St. Joe's, Duquesne, Marian and a few others have had scholarship players.

[vu72]

We've actually played a lot more scholarship teams in the last 14 years. My friend 72 is pointing out the top teams we've played, but St. Joe's, Duquesne, Marian and a few others have had scholarship players.

Great point chef. I was focused on the "big boys" not D2s or partial teams.  Way over my pay grade!

[chef]

One other point to make when comparing coaches records - Dale has clearly had the toughest scheduling for two reasons. First off, when Tom coached there were many years that we played 5 PFL games and 5 non-conference. Among the 5 non-conference games were at least 3 teams that were either DIII or sub-par NAIA schools. Stacy had 4 non-conference games many years and they also consisted of many poor football schools. Dale has not had a single Wisconsin Lutheran, Concordia, Kalamazoo or Aurora on the schedule. Truth is if you look back at the last 30 plus years, it's been a real struggle for Valpo football. Outside of 2000 and 2003, the majority of wins came against pretty poor football teams.

[vu72]

One other point to make when comparing coaches records - Dale has clearly had the toughest scheduling for two reasons. First off, when Tom coached there were many years that we played 5 PFL games and 5 non-conference. Among the 5 non-conference games were at least 3 teams that were either DIII or sub-par NAIA schools. Stacy had 4 non-conference games many years and they also consisted of many poor football schools. Dale has not had a single Wisconsin Lutheran, Concordia, Kalamazoo or Aurora on the schedule. Truth is if you look back at the last 30 plus years, it's been a real struggle for Valpo football. Outside of 2000 and 2003, the majority of wins came against pretty poor football teams.

Fair enough, but, remember our record against Butler is still 4-9 over the last 13 and most recently the losses have been an embarrassment.  Just sayin...

[chef]

Believe it or not, Valpo lost 13 straight times to Butler from 1981 - 1993, and then beat them 7 straight years. A lot of our success over Butler correlated with their program going down the tubes. Credit to Butler for really turning things around in recent years. The Valpo hierarchy sees how the Bulldogs have turned their program around and strives to do the same.

[setshot]

Wittenberg,a D111 school is playing at Butler this weekend. A pre-season top 10 pick, the tigers should maul the bulldogs. Sure hope so. One of my kids is a Witt grad (class of '83) so there is much family interest in the game. GO TIGERS!

[IndyValpo]

One other point to make when comparing coaches records - Dale has clearly had the toughest scheduling for two reasons. First off, when Tom coached there were many years that we played 5 PFL games and 5 non-conference. Among the 5 non-conference games were at least 3 teams that were either DIII or sub-par NAIA schools. Stacy had 4 non-conference games many years and they also consisted of many poor football schools. Dale has not had a single Wisconsin Lutheran, Concordia, Kalamazoo or Aurora on the schedule. Truth is if you look back at the last 30 plus years, it's been a real struggle for Valpo football. Outside of 2000 and 2003, the majority of wins came against pretty poor football teams.

OK what are the two reasons?  The fact that he has has had a tougher schedule is in fact true and an indictment of an apparent cluelessness to our level of talent. When you are as down as we are you schedule some wins. Think about this, if Stetson wins this weekend they will have accomplished in two games what we have done in 3+ years.  Partly because they scheduled victories.  Why does IU play Indiana State? 

[vu72]

Wittenberg,a D111 school is playing at Butler this weekend. A pre-season top 10 pick, the tigers should maul the bulldogs. Sure hope so. One of my kids is a Witt grad (class of '83) so there is much family interest in the game. GO TIGERS!

Interesting.  Wittenberg has always had a good program and Valpo is 2-5 all time against them.  Remember, the PFL is essentially D3 so it should be a good game.

[chef]

OK what are the two reasons? 

Valpo is currently playing less non-conference games than in the past, and the overall quality of non-conference opponent is better than in the past. I really don't think scheduling Wisconsin Lutheran and Concordia would help improve our program. You can argue it would be great to get a win or two in the non-conference. In the long run did scheduling those teams in the past improve the program. There's no evidence to support that.

[valporun]

chef, I feel that most of those games against Wisconsin Lutheran and Concordia were meant to bulk up Horne's record, and to give the players a confidence they couldn't hold on to long enough to build from. The schedules since Carlson came in have been tougher, and for some of these players, the schedules might  be tougher than the schedules they played in high school, where they played the same teams every season, whether good, subpar, or horrible. This might be the first real tough schedules some of these players have seen since they were in youth football just learning the game.

[IndyValpo]

I really don't think scheduling Wisconsin Lutheran and Concordia would help improve our program. You can argue it would be great to get a win or two in the non-conference. In the long run did scheduling those teams in the past improve the program. There's no evidence to support that.

Does a win improve the program?  I guess most people would say yes.  Does it solve our problems, of course not but it would be hard to argue that the current approach has improved the program. 

Why does North Dakota play us?  Why does Oregon play Nicholls State?  If the big boys are allowed a no brainer victory I do not see why we are not.  If nothing else it would have given Carlson a better record as he looks for his next job. 

[historyman]

Think about this, if Stetson wins this weekend they will have accomplished in two games what we have done in 3+ years.  Partly because they scheduled victories.

Stetson beat Warner University 31-3. I'm not sure Valpo has the defense to beat anyone 31-3. Good thing we don't have to play Stetson this season.

EDIT: Warner was also playing it's inaugural football game so I'd say going in nobody knew who was favored. The game had to be postponed till Sunday due to heavy storms with lightning on Saturday night.

[valporun]

A win might give a program some confidence, but a win against a school like Wisconsin Lutheran or Concordia can lead to be a major case of regression, once you play a team like Drake, Jacksonville, Dayton, than it could to help a program grow and play good football regularly.

[IndyValpo]

EDIT: Warner was also playing it's inaugural football game so I'd say going in nobody knew who was favored. The game had to be postponed till Sunday due to heavy storms with lightning on Saturday night.

They play Florida Tech this week, also in their first season.

[IndyValpo]

A win might give a program some confidence, but a win against a school like Wisconsin Lutheran or Concordia can lead to be a major case of regression, once you play a team like Drake, Jacksonville, Dayton, than it could to help a program grow and play good football regularly.

You're kidding, right. Why would 90% of D1 play a cupcake but if we did it we would regress.  You're kidding, right.