2013 Football

[valporun]

I'm not kidding, considering the pattern of VU playing a cupcake because 96% of the time, we do regress. The major FBS schools don't regress because they have the scholarship talent. We have your average joe that wants to play football and get an education too. If you don't want to believe me, IndyValpo, I'm not going to stop you, since you already don't agree with me.

[IndyValpo]

I'm not kidding, considering the pattern of VU playing a cupcake because 96% of the time, we do regress

Example, please

[vu72]

A win might give a program some confidence, but a win against a school like Wisconsin Lutheran or Concordia can lead to be a major case of regression, once you play a team like Drake, Jacksonville, Dayton, than it could to help a program grow and play good football regularly.

You're kidding, right. Why would 90% of D1 play a cupcake but if we did it we would regress.  You're kidding, right.

I guess I agree with Indy on this one. When we look back and compare records for various coaches, we never discuss strength of schedule.  Did we win or not?  Obviously the bigs want a few patsies on their schedule to help getting to 6 and gain a bowl bid.  In our case a win or two would very well help the kids gain some self respect versus giving up 87 points (oh yeah, that was to a conference opponent)

[historyman]

A win might give a program some confidence, but a win against a school like Wisconsin Lutheran or Concordia can lead to be a major case of regression, once you play a team like Drake, Jacksonville, Dayton, than it could to help a program grow and play good football regularly.

You're kidding, right. Why would 90% of D1 play a cupcake but if we did it we would regress.  You're kidding, right.

I guess I agree with Indy on this one. When we look back and compare records for various coaches, we never discuss strength of schedule.  Did we win or not?  Obviously the bigs want a few patsies on their schedule to help getting to 6 and gain a bowl bid.  In our case a win or two would very well help the kids gain some self respect versus giving up 87 points (oh yeah, that was to a conference opponent)

I have to agree with Indy and vu72. I think the biggest thing this current team needs is some victories.

[chef]

Would we win more games in the PFL if we had Wisconsin Lutheran on the schedule instead of North Dakota? Would our program get better each year if we scheduled Wisconsin Lutheran instead on North Dakota? I don't think anybody knows the answer for sure, but the Valpo hierarchy would answer no to both questions.

[VULB#62]

Tough question:  Does a team gain more confidence playing a "lesser" opponnent and winning or going toe to toe with a "greater" opponent and losing (many times badly)?

My thought is that the answr lies between the two.  I believe we should be scheduling FSC scholarship schools; however, we should be doing it with a view towards realistic competition.  By that I mean, schedule the bottom dwellers of the FCS conferences, not the nationally ranked or even middle of these leagues.  The appeal is that we have a better chance of pulling an upset and the bottom dweller has a better chance of putting a W on their record while actually being forced to compete.  Either that or focus on the NEC, where they do have scholarships, but not at the level of the Big Sky and the MVFC.


Having said that, I realize that some contracts are written years in advance and even down teams this year could be champions three years from now when we would be due to play them.

[covufan]

chef, I feel that most of those games against Wisconsin Lutheran and Concordia were meant to bulk up Horne's record, and to give the players a confidence they couldn't hold on to long enough to build from. The schedules since Carlson came in have been tougher, and for some of these players, the schedules might  be tougher than the schedules they played in high school, where they played the same teams every season, whether good, subpar, or horrible. This might be the first real tough schedules some of these players have seen since they were in youth football just learning the game.

I don't think the schedule was ever manipulated to 'bulk up' any coaches record.  In the early 1990's the NCAA made it mandatory that if you wanted to be Division I for basketball, you needed to be Division I for all sports.  Valpo, along with a few other like minded schools, developed the Pioneer Football League, with the teams being non-scholarship in principle.  The initial years were learning for all teams - how to schedule, whom to schedule, etc.  The Wis Lutheran and Concordia games were the same level that Valpo was playing for 2-3 decades before the PFL.  We still scheduled these teams, because that is who we were used to playing.  In comes Coach Carlson, with an increased PFL schedule (= less OOC games against less than Divsion I teams), an increased desire by Valpo and the PFL to play more Division I teams (leading up to the PFL auto bid to I-AA playoffs - I still can't use FCS easily), and a decreased level of talent on campus (presumably).  The schedule was just who we were able to get games with, especially with a limited travel radius for home and away series.

Another poster mentioned that Carlson's first few years should be somewhat credited to Stacey Adams.  I somewhat disagree.  In Adams' five seasons, the team gave up 40 or more points in 20 games, including only twice in his final (1 and 10) season.  Carlson's teams have given up 40 or more points in 22 games in his first three seasons.  The Carlson system appears to be: give the opponents 45 points, then hope and pray they let us score more!

With two games to go last season, I posted the records of Horne, Adams and Carlson, with respect to less than Division I, PFL, and overall:

Coach   < Div I      PFL     Overall
Horne   36-41-1   28-51   67-101-1
Adams     9-8       6-31    15-40
Carlson    0-4       2-20     2-29
         
Horne – minus first 3 years   34-18   28-47   65-74

Horne's first three years mirror that of Carlson, with the caveat that Horne arguably inherited a worse team.  Adams' last team was -223 for Points For/Against difference, with Carlson's following teams at -414, -323, and -294 respectively.  Koch's last year was -396, with Horne's first three years at -331, -273 and -169 respectively.  Horne's teams were getting better, but the record wasn't showing it yet.  Carlson's teams don't appear to be getting better, and in my mind he needs to win 4 or 5 games this year to continue. 

Bottom line - the schedule is somewhat tougher now than 20 years ago.  We need to be competitive in the PFL, which we have not been since 1997 thru 2000 and 2003.  The Valpo PFL records from those 5 seasons should be the norm. 

[usc4valpo]

One other point to make when comparing coaches records - Dale has clearly had the toughest scheduling for two reasons. First off, when Tom coached there were many years that we played 5 PFL games and 5 non-conference. Among the 5 non-conference games were at least 3 teams that were either DIII or sub-par NAIA schools. Stacy had 4 non-conference games many years and they also consisted of many poor football schools. Dale has not had a single Wisconsin Lutheran, Concordia, Kalamazoo or Aurora on the schedule. Truth is if you look back at the last 30 plus years, it's been a real struggle for Valpo football. Outside of 2000 and 2003, the majority of wins came against pretty poor football teams.

OK what are the two reasons? The fact that he has has had a tougher schedule is in fact true and an indictment of an apparent cluelessness to our level of talent. When you are as down as we are you schedule some wins. Think about this, if Stetson wins this weekend they will have accomplished in two games what we have done in 3+ years. Partly because they scheduled victories. Why does IU play Indiana State?

In reality, wouldn't you consider William Jewell as a cupcake and a gimme win?  I will not include St. Joe as one - they have partial scholarship players.

[usc4valpo]

Tough question: Does a team gain more confidence beating a "lesser" opponnent and winning or going toe to toe with a "greater" opponent and losing (many times badly)? My thought is that the answr lies between the two. I believe we should be scheduling FSC scholarship schools; however, we should be doing it with a view towards realistic competition. By that I mean, schedule the bottom dwellers of the FCS conferences, not the nationally ranked or even middle of these leagues. The appeal is tht we have a better cahnmce of pulling an upset and the bottom dweller has a better chance of putting a W on their record while actually being forced to compete. Either that or focus on the NEC, where they do have scholarships, but not at the level of the Big Sky and the MVFC. Having said that, I realize that some contracts are written years in advance and even down teams this year could be champions three years from now when we would be due to play them.

Please note:  we face FCS scholarship schools also to grab a nice payout.  Remember, a reason Valpo has football is to bring in 100 young men to enroll there.  At $40k a pop, that's $4M revenue (minus academic scholarships).

[vu72]

Tough question: Does a team gain more confidence beating a "lesser" opponnent and winning or going toe to toe with a "greater" opponent and losing (many times badly)? My thought is that the answr lies between the two. I believe we should be scheduling FSC scholarship schools; however, we should be doing it with a view towards realistic competition. By that I mean, schedule the bottom dwellers of the FCS conferences, not the nationally ranked or even middle of these leagues. The appeal is tht we have a better cahnmce of pulling an upset and the bottom dweller has a better chance of putting a W on their record while actually being forced to compete. Either that or focus on the NEC, where they do have scholarships, but not at the level of the Big Sky and the MVFC. Having said that, I realize that some contracts are written years in advance and even down teams this year could be champions three years from now when we would be due to play them.

Please note:  we face FCS scholarship schools also to grab a nice payout.  Remember, a reason Valpo has football is to bring in 100 young men to enroll there.  At $40k a pop, that's $4M revenue (minus academic scholarships).

I don't really think you intended to offer an excuse for poor play via getting guys on campus paying 40k, did you?  I doubt it.  The reality is that all PFL teams have the same situation and benefit from having men on campus.  As an example, Butler has now slid to 40/60 male to female ratio.  Clearly having the football team and its members is a plus for a variety of reasons.  However, for whatever reason, we seem to be attracting the top students who aren't such great football players.  Or, is it something else?? 

[chef]

William Jewell is a NCAA DII school. They were a longtime NAIA school, but now compete in the GLVC with St. Joe's. The game this Saturday should be competitive as should the game against William Jewell. The top teams in the PFL have faired well in recent years against middle of the road DII schools. I'm not saying we're a top PFL team, but when I looked at the schedule months ago I thought we'd have a shot versus St. Joe's and William Jewell and I still feel that way.

[usc4valpo]

Tough question: Does a team gain more confidence beating a "lesser" opponnent and winning or going toe to toe with a "greater" opponent and losing (many times badly)? My thought is that the answr lies between the two. I believe we should be scheduling FSC scholarship schools; however, we should be doing it with a view towards realistic competition. By that I mean, schedule the bottom dwellers of the FCS conferences, not the nationally ranked or even middle of these leagues. The appeal is tht we have a better cahnmce of pulling an upset and the bottom dweller has a better chance of putting a W on their record while actually being forced to compete. Either that or focus on the NEC, where they do have scholarships, but not at the level of the Big Sky and the MVFC. Having said that, I realize that some contracts are written years in advance and even down teams this year could be champions three years from now when we would be due to play them.

Please note: we face FCS scholarship schools also to grab a nice payout. Remember, a reason Valpo has football is to bring in 100 young men to enroll there. At $40k a pop, that's $4M revenue (minus academic scholarships).

I don't really think you intended to offer an excuse for poor play via getting guys on campus paying 40k, did you? I doubt it. The reality is that all PFL teams have the same situation and benefit from having men on campus. As an example, Butler has now slid to 40/60 male to female ratio. Clearly having the football team and its members is a plus for a variety of reasons. However, for whatever reason, we seem to be attracting the top students who aren't such great football players. Or, is it something else??

chef:  If you have read my previous posts for  which  have I taken critique to being too critical , there is no way I treat this is an excuse to a very bad situation.  I have just come to the conclusion that Valpo has football  to  bring in revenue.  It is all I can really conclude on this.  At this time, the university does not care about the success of this football program, other than to bring in students.  As long as players pay their way to play, they are pleased.  I see it similar right now to the Astros making a $90M profit for a team that is 45 games under .500.  If they really care, changes would have been made.

[chef]

I promise you the university cares about the success of the program. Why do you think Stacy Adams was fired? He brought in players (students). He was a hard working good employee who handle things with class. Nobody had a problem with Stacy as a person. However, he didn't win and clearly the program regressed during his years as head coach. Thus he was replaced. I haven't had a discussion with him about the subject, but I'm sure Dale Carlson knows he needs to win, or at least show clear improvement.

[bbtds]

Wittenberg,a D111 school is playing at Butler this weekend. A pre-season top 10 pick, the tigers should maul the bulldogs. Sure hope so. One of my kids is a Witt grad (class of '83) so there is much family interest in the game. GO TIGERS!

Oh, maybe I need to cheer on the other Lutheran U against Butler.

[covufan]

Wittenberg,a D111 school is playing at Butler this weekend. A pre-season top 10 pick, the tigers should maul the bulldogs. Sure hope so. One of my kids is a Witt grad (class of '83) so there is much family interest in the game. GO TIGERS!

Butler will win by at least 14.

[vu72]

Wittenberg,a D111 school is playing at Butler this weekend. A pre-season top 10 pick, the tigers should maul the bulldogs. Sure hope so. One of my kids is a Witt grad (class of '83) so there is much family interest in the game. GO TIGERS!

Oh, maybe I need to cheer on the other Lutheran U against Butler.

You may be on to something.  I'm not sure Valpo or Butler is up to playing Wittenberg but why not explore the obvious Lutheran/Lutheran interest by playing better football programs like Capital, Augsburg, Concordia Morehead or maybe St. Olaf?  These schools play high level D3 and would give us a battle, no doubt.  At the same time we can  renew, effectively, the old basketball traditon of inviting three other Lutheran schools to campus so we could beat on them! If we made it a tradition of playing one Lutheran school on the football field, obviously we would host, as the D1.  We could call it the "Luther Cup" and award the annual trophy or inscribe  their name on the permanent trophy.  I like it!   
[/b]

[milanmiracle]

Would we win more games in the PFL if we had Wisconsin Lutheran on the schedule instead of North Dakota? Would our program get better each year if we scheduled Wisconsin Lutheran instead on North Dakota? I don't think anybody knows the answer for sure, but the Valpo hierarchy would answer no to both questions.

So here's the question...is the program better now? It's two Campbell wins away from being one of the worst teams in the HISTORY of D1 football. Having some of the scores roll across ESPN is downright damaging to the university. The worst debacle was vs. a conference opponent, and that can't necessarily be avoided (I still 100% blame Dale Carlson for letting that happen, but I digress). There are no positives by being crushed in public. The song "I think I can beat Mike Tyson" pops into my head...

I think you need to teach kids how to win, and that's not done by getting your brains beat in by vastly superior opponents.

[usc4valpo]

Would Valpo face opponets like North Dakota and Youngstown State because of the experience of playing a higher tier FCS school, play in a bigger stadium and getting a nice payout?

Also, if Valpo is an FCS, shouldn't they at least stay a little competitive against teams like this?  For example, look at Dayton last weekend against Youngstown State, and San Diego against Cal Poly.

I agree these these guys need W's, maybe a true ham-and-egger, tomato can game would be good for them - in the shortterm.  But overall, if you an FCS team (scholarship or non-scholarship), you need to play that way.

[IndyValpo]

Would Valpo face opponets like North Dakota and Youngstown State because of the experience of playing a higher tier FCS school, play in a bigger stadium and getting a nice payout?

Also, if Valpo is an FCS, shouldn't they at least stay a little competitive against teams like this?  For example, look at Dayton last weekend against Youngstown State, and San Diego against Cal Poly.

I agree these these guys need W's, maybe a true ham-and-egger, tomato can game would be good for them - in the shortterm.  But overall, if you an FCS team (scholarship or non-scholarship), you need to play that way.

Crawl before you walk, walk before you run.  Being competitive against scholarship FCS programs is running.   Are we even crawling yet?

[usc4valpo]

Well, it is crawl time tomorrow and next Saturday, and Valpo is facing backto back ham and egger Division II opponents, and as a Division I FCS team they should be at least competitive and possibly win.  If they look crappy after this, then all excuses need to be put to rest.  Hopefully, there will be some progress and some W's.

[chef]

Very fair and true statement. Valpo needs to be competitive against middle of the road DII teams. Everybody understands that. Let's see what happens over the next 8 days.

[FWalum]

Chef, thanks for keeping the conversation sane.

[milanmiracle]

Chef, thanks for keeping the conversation sane.

As one of the posters on this forum who might get riled up a bit, I too appreciate Chef's sanity on most topics. Thanks!

[usc4valpo]

Very good conclusion chef.

However, there is not high level of insanity was going on in this discussion.  Sure we have disagreement, and as humans beings we should.  We cannot always agree and sing and work together and have the great leader in Sidney Poitier building the chapel in the great movie "Lillies of the Field."  I agree totally with chef - these next 2 games are important in a lot of ways.  But I will disagree with chef that Valpo has insufficient committment to football and that they use it to bring in students and bring in needed revenue.  I am not sure why that is an insane comment.  What actions are being made in the adminisitration to support a FCS Division I non-scholarship football program? 

[setshot]

If Valpo loses the next two games the final solution to our problem should be:DROP FOOTBALL!