VU FB vs. Bye

[usc4valpo]

Perhaps, depends on what is going on.  A lot of Valpo students make trips to Chicago or their respective home or whereever frequently.

To be honest, I went to all the games when I was at Valpo, but I could see many watching the A&M/Bama game, the Big 10, or better yet, the Pac 12 games on TV.

One more point regarding Valpo and the Pac12 - Valpo players still do not have tackling fundamentals, and that is disturbing.  They need to sit down and watch Stanford's defense.  They may not have the most talented defense around, but they are fundamentally sound and well coached.

[Valpo89]

I listened to the first half on the radio and decided to attend the William Jewell game when VU was still in it, sort of, at halftime. As I was walking in, WJ scored its 60-plus yard TD on I believe a third-and-13 play. It was little more than a bail-out pass by their QB, who was scrambling to his right. The receiver cut back to the left and scored on the long TD to go up two scores.
That kind of play seems typical of the VU defense under this regime. If someone wanted to do some research akin to jamming your eyeballs with a fork, I'll bet the average length of an opponent TD during the Carlson era is probably between 25-30 yards.
I never thought people would be longing for "the good old days" of Tom Horne. But that's almost where we're at. He had a couple good seasons, but even during the bad seasons the team was at least competitive - with a few exceptions of course particularly in his first three years. Again, that's some research I wouldn't want to do.
One thing Horne told me back then is that he always put his best athletes on defense. Maybe not the Macchi-Giancola guys, but for the most part that was the philosophy. I think it was successful, at least to the degree that you can use that word in association with VU football.
Maybe that's what Carlson needs to do, if he's still around next year. Put the best athletes on defense, play a ball-control offense and try to win a 21-17 game. His high-flying aerial attack that worked at Trine and Ohio Dominican isn't flying very high at Brown Field.
So I stuck around to watch the end yesterday, and of course it was disappointing. I sat near the bad, and the kids in the band were none to pleased to be sitting through that debacle. And I did see LaBarbera - I guarantee he cares about the football program and is just as embarrassed as anyone.

[covufan]

Bye week. We can't lose, can we?

I'm reminded of a Colts team that started 0-13, when they fired the coach and brought in Ron Meyer.  Meyer won the last three games, most likely not even knowing all of the players names. My guess is that he provided a fresh start, a fresh review of the players, and made changes that gave the team a chance to win.

If I'm the Valpo AD and I know someone that could come in quickly to provide new direction, and wasn't interested in the long term job, I think I'd be making a change.  Also, I'd bring in someone to evaluate the football program to identify the areas (facilities, recruiting, everything) that need change for Valpo to compete at the FCS and PFL levels.  I'd also talk to other successful FCS coaches to find what they needed for success, including Lembo at Ball State, with his previous stints at Elon and Lehigh.  I'd also talk to coaches of programs I'd most like to emulate to find a young coach that has the qualities of being a good college coach. 

[VUdad]

A couple thoughts that don't, I promise, simply repeat the battle cry for a coaching change. First, Valpo needs a slight but profound attitude change when it comes to real-time game decisions. In short, we need a "nothing to lose" approach--go for it on 4th and 1 when across the 50, try 3 deep passes when there's 21 seconds left in the first half and you have the ball on your 20. Onside kick when the other team isn't expecting it. What about a trick play? Literally, nothing to lose might strike a lucky spark. Second thought--the team needs a leader or two. Watching the sidelines Saturday showed no player working his teammates (a very different vibe than the random guy who throws down his helmet). In conversations with a few players' dads, they agreed that the team (especially on offense) doesn't have a player positioned to light up his fellow players. Or has their respect. That's a key ingredient to win or turnaround a floundering program. It's been said that in football, the energy on the sidelines spills onto the field for teams that win, and vice versa for teams that don't. 

[LaPorteAveApostle]

I sat near the bad

you and apparently 1600 others

seriously, though, good write up and you almost have me talked into looking up the Big Play Defense (and I can't even say you didn't warn me.  graphically, disturbingly, warned me : )

[usc4valpo]

I sat near the bad

you and apparently 1600 others seriously, though, good write up and you almost have me talked into looking up the Big Play Defense (and I can't even say you didn't warn me. graphically, disturbingly, warned me : )

lol, good wit there.

[historyman]

Quote from: Valpo89 on Today at 02:23:25 PM I sat near the bad you and apparently 1600 others

I didn't get to sit near the bad. There was room for a track between me and the bad.   

[LaPorteAveApostle]

GENTLEMEN! 

AND THE OCCASIONAL LADY WHO ENDS UP HERE BY MISTAKE ON HER WAY TO PINTEREST!

I HAVE BEEN TO THE MOUNTAINTOP

EGGED ON BY VALPO89

(IF BY 'MOUNTAINTOP" YOU MEAN "ABYSS" THEN YES

YES I HAVE SEEN IT)

AND VERILY I HAVE RETURNED TO TELL YE THE TALEz

BIG PLAY TOUCHDOWNS IN THE CARLSON REGIME
So, I'm pretty ok with numbers, for someone who never had a math class after pre-cal (2nd track) senior year (high school), and while i was doing this i realized...i have no context for these numbers other than the immediate.  but bear with me.

Big plays are in this case those resulting in a TD of > 25 yards.  Yeah, you have to draw the line somewhere.

Since the dawn of Dale: 
1)  We have never scored a special teams touchdown.
2)  We have given up 8, all but one of which were big, big plays.  2 of them in one recent game, vs ND (the one w/o the leprechaun)

3)  We have actually scored 4 big-play touchdowns of our 5 defensive TDs.
4)  But we've given up 12, 6 of the big-gulp-size.

5)  For the offense (our defense) it's gotten worse under Carlson (than early Carlson).
6)  In 2010-11, about one in four TDs was of the big-play variety (31 of 128, 24.2%).
7)  In 2012-13, about one in three is a big play (26 of 79, 32.9%).

8)  You could make the case that our offense has gotten a little better, if you're into small sample sizes.
9)  We have 4 big-play TDs in 3 games already!  This after 7 in the previous THREE YEARS COMBINED.  St. Joe's is the first time Dale has produced more than one in a game!
10) In fact, we have 10 TD total already--and had 13 TD all of 2010.
11) But only one in six TDs of ours on offense is a big play (11 of 72, 15.9%).
12) So the They, are, in the Carlson regime, scoring 27.5% of TDs on big plays, and are almost twice as likely to have scored on a big play.

OFFENSIVE TOUCHDOWNS
2010: 13
2011: 23
2011 MINUS CAMPBELL:  18
2012: 26
2012 MINUS CAMPBELL:  20
2013 (3 games):  10
Which is promising; over a 11-game schedule that projects to 36 touchdowns, or a lot more than before.

Defense is giving up more BPTDs every year:
2010: 15
2011: 16
2012: 20
2013: 6 (projects to 22)

FACT:  We once went 11 straight games (the equivalent of a season) without scoring a BPTD.
FACT THE SECOND:  We have had only 8 games in the Carlson regime in which we DIDN'T give up a BPTD.
FACT JR:  There were 3 different games last year we gave up FOUR BPTD IN A SINGLE GAME!
FACT BLAH BLAH:  We made Youngstown really work for it in our 2-game series.  Sure, they may have scored 17 touchdowns, but only 2 were big plays.  Bend but don't break!

I could go on, but this is already an hour of my life i'll never get back.  don't forget basketball starts early this year!

data attached for those with strong stummicks.

O TOUCHDOWN TREE
O TOUCHDOWN TREE
WE LOVE YOU MORE THAN FIELD GOALS
Stuffing the Passer - O Touchdown Tree

[Valpo89]

Apostle, impressive as always.
I swear I did not type "bad" on purpose. But, ironically, I guess it was appropriate.

And if there were 1,600 at that football game, there were 125,000 at last week's ND-Michigan game as opposed to 115,000.

[willy]

I have tried to keep a open mind about Coach Carlson and the program but I can't anymore, enough is enough!  His philosophy of playing no defense and trying to win by outscoring your opponents has never worked and will never work.  Throwing for 495 yards is great, but not when you rush for 26 yards. William Jewell turned us into a one dimensional team and never should have let us back in the game. The teams that play all three phases of the game (offense, defense, special teams) are the teams that year in and year out  play for championships.  What he is running is a gimmick and a joke and it is embarrassing.  The attendance at Saturdays game was very respectable, the stands were fairly packed.  The atmosphere at the game was disheartening.   1600 fans sitting there pretty much in disbelief dead silence at what was happening.  I know ML was there and he saw and felt the same thing that I did.  There must be a change because the current situation is  unacceptable and must be corrected.

[chef]

I don't think Dale Carlson's philosophy it to play no defense. In fact prior to last season he moved his second leading rusher to cornerback (Dale Cook). This year's top recruit only played offense last year at Warren Central, but Dale has him starting on the defensive line. However, I get the point, and understand everybody's frustrations.

[usc4valpo]

I don't think Dale Carlson's philosophy it to play no defense. In fact prior to last season he moved his second leading rusher to cornerback (Dale Cook). This year's top recruit only played offense last year at Warren Central, but Dale has him starting on the defensive line. However, I get the point, and understand everybody's frustrations.

This reminds me of the Denver Nuggets experiment in the early 90's under Paul Westhead, where the Nuggies had MIchael Adams and Orlando Woolridge and would lose games 150-130 regularly and had the worst record in the NBA.  Well, with the all offense strategy and other actions of pure brilliance, Carlson has a 2-34 record that must satisfy the Valpo administration.

This is a bye week, and I wonder if something is going to happen today somewhere in a leather chair conference room where the administrators will have the guts to make a decision.  This situation has been being on for too long.

[VULB#62]

Defense is giving up more BPTDs every year:
2010: 15
2011: 16
2012: 20
2013: 6 (projects to 22)

FACT:  We once went 11 straight games (the equivalent of a season) without scoring a BPTD.
FACT THE SECOND:  We have had only 8 games in the Carlson regime in which we DIDN'T give up a BPTD.
FACT JR:  There were 3 different games last year we gave up FOUR BPTD IN A SINGLE GAME!
FACT BLAH BLAH:  We made Youngstown really work for it in our 2-game series.  Sure, they may have scored 17 touchdowns, but only 2 were big plays.  Bend but don't break!

2010 had a lot of Adams left-overs.  While Stacy's teams had a bad record, they were competitive is some of their games and the scores against were not nearly as dramatic.  Basically the kids played football -- they just lost games. The increasing BPTDs correlate to the offensive emphasis in recruiting and a clear vibe that it's always all about the O IMO.  Since the 2010 offseason, my "fan mail" to DC has been 'play some defense.... please'. But in 4 years I have not noticed any change in alignments, philosophy or, more importantly, emphasis. 

But one thing is clear:  Alex Green is a football player.

[LaPorteAveApostle]

Looking over the data again, there's all kinds of fun things.

Like Saturday was the first time we've ever lost while scoring 5 touchdowns!  At least we're losing in new ways!

"lo, and the angel of Touchdowns shone upon them!"

[Seriously, if you guys have any kind of sense of humor like mine, you will really really enjoy "Stuffing the Passer", whence came that video I posted. It's from an ND blog, and I (a Michigan Man) don't even care because it's so funny. 

Start at season 1 because it was Charlie's last season: http://www.thehouserockbuilt.com/ ]

[covufan]

I don't think Dale Carlson's philosophy it to play no defense. In fact prior to last season he moved his second leading rusher to cornerback (Dale Cook). This year's top recruit only played offense last year at Warren Central, but Dale has him starting on the defensive line. However, I get the point, and understand everybody's frustrations.

This reminds me of the Denver Nuggets experiment in the early 90's under Paul Westhead, where the Nuggies had MIchael Adams and Orlando Woolridge and would lose games 150-130 regularly and had the worst record in the NBA.  Well, with the all offense strategy and other actions of pure brilliance, Carlson has a 2-34 record that must satisfy the Valpo administration.

This is a bye week, and I wonder if something is going to happen today somewhere in a leather chair conference room where the administrators will have the guts to make a decision.  This situation has been being on for too long.

The Enver Nuggets (they had no 'D')!

[vusupporter]

Like Saturday was the first time we've ever lost while scoring 5 touchdowns!

Last year's home opener against St. Joe's.

[willy]

I don't think Dale Carlson's philosophy it to play no defense. In fact prior to last season he moved his second leading rusher to cornerback (Dale Cook). This year's top recruit only played offense last year at Warren Central, but Dale has him starting on the defensive line. However, I get the point, and understand everybody's frustrations.

The last two years we have averaged giving up over 500 yards a game defensively.  Recruiting and moving offensive players to defense is not the answer.  I still think his philosophy is to try and out score the opponent or the defense would have been addressed. 

[LaPorteAveApostle]

Last year's home opener against St. Joe's.

Nope!  Only 4 offensive touchdowns in that game.  The other was a fumble return TD.

[valporun]

I'll stand up and admit that I said that the AD wouldn't fire Dale Carlson early in the season, because it doesn't often happen, then I saw that Grambling St. fired former Washington Redskins QB Doug Williams about two days after I declared that DC wouldn't be fired until after the season ends. At this point, now that the precedent has been set by a SWAC school, why not let him go now? Sure, it would cost Valpo a buyout, but from some of the posters here, it seems they would be willing to help put up the thousands of dollars needed to buyout DC's contract.

When I was watching on Saturday, I initially felt that it was time to make some personnel switches on the field, but after our running game took a massive hit with Hutson's shoulder injury and Bodz still being out with that serious knee injury, I don't know if it's so much the players playing badly, or it's overthinking what to do because they want to win, but too often they put the cart before the horse, and either don't catch the ball mid-stride, or don't make the necessary tackles that lead to stopping the big play touchdowns. We seems to have ZERO answers to what to do if a major contributor goes down, and I still don't think we have the weapons in the arsenal to overcome deficits on the scoreboard or losses of key personnel. Maybe it's time to scrap 'the system', and just play football. The system doesn't work, and these players don't seem to have the discipline to overcome their faults in the system either, whether DC and coaches are supposed to teach them how overcome these faults with discipline, or if they need to do some self-evaluation of the type of football player each one of them needs to be, but its time to just play some football and leave the motivational quotes, Joel Osteen comments, and excuses in the locker room and coaches offices. None of this is winning football games at Valparaiso University.

[usc4valpo]

If there is going to be any coaching change, now is the time since it is a bye week and you have 2 weeks to adjust.

I think it would be wise to see the Valpo administration show some guts, show that they care, and bag Carlson.  This is simply not working.  Sometimes you need to take action and stop the pain before it gets worse.  I am sure a buyout will not put the athletic department in the red.   This has gone too far and the players, parents and alums deserve better than this.  This situation for Carlson is a square peg in a round hole.

[414]

Good points being made.  Either DC is not capable of coaching any other "system" and adjusting "his" style of play to the talent or it's HIS way at any cost.  Whichever it is, this is someone who does not deserve to be cashing a paycheck as HC at Valpo.  He seems to be very self-absorbed and more interested in the attention he likes to draw to himself.  Not the definition of a team player.  Always has excuses and never seems to take one ounce of the blame for the situation he has created.

When I think about it, why in the world would any decent assistant coach even consider coming to Valpo knowing that he had managed only 2 wins in 3 seasons.  You only jump on board a sinking ship if you are desperate. Open your eyes ML!  This guy is not who he likes to pretend to be. He has never put together a stable staff that this team could grow with, learn from and count on.  I know that changes are a part of coaching staff, but this is ridiculous. 

Like I said before, give this team something to get excited about.  Show them you've got their back and make a change now.  I bet the alumni would donate their Homecoming donations meant for recruiting and new headsets for the coaches to the cause!  Money well spent! 

[valpotx]

Bye week 49
Valpo 42

It will be a close game throughout, but we will give up a late TD in this one again

[historyman]

Last year's home opener against St. Joe's.

Nope!  Only 4 offensive touchdowns in that game.  The other was a fumble return TD.

I believe you said 5 touchdowns, not 5 offensive touchdowns. You might have been thinking it but you didn't type it.

Like Saturday was the first time we've ever lost while scoring 5 touchdowns!  At least we're losing in new ways!

[LaPorteAveApostle]

glean the context from the data then

[usc4valpo]

Well, it is Tuesday and again the Valpo administration once again showed they did not care or they have no guts to make a change.