HL Previews USA Today

[vu72]

If Yeo is better--not questioning your opinion--then we really have something.  Peters has proven, against big school competition, to do it all and thus received many D1 offers.  If Yeo is the more complete player, GREAT.  Can't wait to see all the freshman!!

Yeo, at 6'4" can replace the smaller 3's we've used last year.  Peters adds height.  I can imagine Peters at the 3 and Yeo at the 2.  So much for wondering where the points will come from...

[LaPorteAveApostle]

Peters has proven, against big school competition, to do it all and thus received many D1 offers. 

I don't know.  His HS team underachieved, and Yeo's (maybe) over-.  They beat some quality teams and some quality players on the way (ask Fazekas and Marquette among others).

Plus, with Yeo committing so early, that kind of took him off the market, whereas Peters was into his senior year when he committed.

It's interesting--I never really imagined them competing for minutes, because they're so different, but in the early days here, they likely will be.

[wh]

Pre-season analysis of new member Oakland by Commissioner:


Horizon Analysis - Oakland
by Commissioner » Mon Sep 30, 2013 9:42 pm
This is the third of my Horizon team pre-season analyses, covering the Oakland Grizzlies. Earlier reviews of Wright State and Valparaiso are at viewtopic.php?f=2&t=1177 and viewtopic.php?f=2&t=1179.

Oakland
2013: 10-6, 4th place Summit League: 16-17 overall, CIT.

Go around Horizon League fan boards, and there's always a certain disgruntlement with the Horizon League. It should be better, bigger, smaller, get rid of its remaining privates, add more privates, require tougher scheduling policies, and on and on. Not around Oakland. Grizzly fans are ecstatic to escape the Summit League for the higher plateaus of the Horizon. And they've got a team that ought to be competitive right away.

My personal view, though, is that many fans around the league are a bit too excited about the addition of Oakland. Obviously that's not the case around the corner of Livernois and McNichols, but even leaving aside local biases, Oakland's strength is often overestimated. Let's start with the obivious – the Griz had a losing record last season. Big picture, the Grizzlies have one of the smallest arenas, lowest average attendances, and smallest basketball and overall athletic budgets in the Horizon. Oakland's basketball success in the last decade has largely come from pummeling inferior Summit competition. In non-conference play over the past 5 years, Oakland is just 26-42 against D-I opponents. This is in part because they have tended to play very difficult non-conference schedules against lots of top high-majors, but not entirely so: for example, they are just 5-5 against the MAC and 0-2 against the MVC in that time, leagues much closer to the Horizon in level of play than is the Summit. In other words, success in the Summit won't automatically translate into success in the Horizon. And while Loyola has been the Horizon's weak sister for the last decade, long term their endowment, history, and location give them more potential, at least if they are really serious about getting serious again about basketball. Nor is it clear, as I've noted elsewhere, http://udtitanbasketball.freeforums.net ... e-strength, that Oakland's "murderer's row" scheduling philosophy will help the Horizon's overall RPI, though it should help Oakland's.

Be that as it may, Oakland is here, and they should field a very competitive team this year. The immediate effect of the Oakland for Loyola swap is certainly to make the Horizon a better league in 2014.

Oakland's game starts with Travis Bader, a 6-5 wing who averaged 22.1 ppg last season, 5th best in the nation and second (after Creighton's Doug McDermott) among returning players. He also led the nation in 3 pointers made. If you think Ray McCallum played a lot last year, note that Bader averaged almost two minutes MORE per game than McCallum, while playing in every game. Bader was on the floor for 95% of Oakland's minutes last year. He should bring lots of attention to the Horizon this year and it wouldn't be surprising if he followed Ray McCallum and Norris Cole as an All-American selection.

Bader is by no means the only talent. The returning point guard is 5th year senior Duke Mondy, a Providence transfer who averaged 12 points, 5.1 assists, and 4.4 rebounds last season. In the middle Oakland has a third contender for all-conference honors in 6-10, 260 lb. junior Corey Petros. who averaged 12.5 points and 8.2 rebounds per game, shooting 56% from the floor.

The question is whether there is enough behind these three to propel the Grizzlies to the top of the standings. Coach Greg Kampe has state that he wants to turn the point over to touted freshman Kahlil Felder from day one. Felder is good but there's always some risk in a freshman point guard. If Felder does start, Mondy slides over to the #2, and the final starter will be one of a pair of junior transfer forwards, Ralph Hill from Dayton or Tommy McCune from West Virginia. McCune was a highly rated high school recruit who was booted from West Virginia after various brushes with the law and violations of team rules. He transferred to Oakland, where Kampe kicked him off the team last year. But after being booted McCune stayed in school, is said to have worked hard, and has been given one final chance. My guess, however, is that Hill gets the starting nod. If Felder can't handle the point, both McCune and Hill could start.

Another player who figures in is 5-9 senior guard Ryan Bass, who averaged 9.3 ppg last year. Bass, however, was slowed last season by a lingering knee injury, and there are rumors that he still is feeling various aches and pains. Oakland's bench is already thin, and earlier this month it was announced that 6-9 back-up forward Raphael Carter will miss the entire season to have femoral acetabular impingement surgery, whatever that is (it sounds bad, and I wish him well). 6-6 forward Dante Williams averaged 3.7 points and 1.8 rebounds in 15 minutes per game. 6-5 sophomore forward Lloyd Neely was a disappointment last year, and played just 150 minutes on the entire season. Oakland is thin; if McCune gets kicked off the team, they'll be thinner. An injury to Bader would be a disaster.

The loss of Carter points up another potential weakness – while Petros is a force in the middle, with Carter out he will be the only Grizzly in the rotation topping 6-6, except for McCune, who despite his 6-8 stature weighs just 200 pounds and really is a perimeter player. Fortunately for OU, Petros has been pretty good at staying out of foul trouble.

Oakland's style, like Detroit's, is up-tempo, and UD/Oakland games ought to be a high scoring spectacle. If the Titans don't defend the trey better than last year, Bader could go for 50 against UD.

In the bigger picture, if Felder is good; if McCune stays out of trouble and plays like the Big 10/Big East recruit he once was; if Ralph Hill is quite a bit better than he was at Dayton; and if they avoid injuries, Oakland could be extremely good. More likely, they'll be one of several contenders in a wide-open Horizon League race. I'll say a top 4 finish is likely, but I don't see Oakland winning it.

Probable Starting Lineup
PG: Kahlil Felder, 5-9 Fr.
SG: Duke Mondy, 6-4 Sr., 12.0 ppg, 5.1 apg, 4.4 rpg.
SF: Travis Bader, 6-5 Sr., 22.1 ppg, .394 3P%.
F: Ralph Hill, 6-6 Jr., (Dayton 2012) 1.4 ppg.
C: Corey Petros, 6-10 Jr., 12.5 ppg, 8.2 rpg, .565 FG%.

Other Key Players:
G: Ryan Bass, 5-9 Sr., 9.3 ppg, 2.7 apg, 2.5 rpg.
F: Tommy McCune, 6-8 Jr., (West Virginia 2012) played 13 games, 4.5 mpg.
F: Dante Williams, 6-6 Jr., 3.7 ppg, 1.8 rpg.
F: Lloyd Neely, 6-5 Soph., 1.1 ppg.
Titan All Americans Calihan Swanson Sparrow Ebben DeBusschere Murray Haywood Long Tyler Duerod Phillips Green McCallum

[EddieCabot]

I noticed on Twitter that the HL pre-season ballots are out and that results will be announced at Media Day on Oct. 15.  It will be interesting to see how the HL predictions compare to the stuff that's been released by the national publications.  The season's right around the corner!

[classof2014]

Here is my personal preview of what the HL will look like come March.

1st: Wright State

Wright State is poised to finish first in the HL. They are a well-coached team that is great on the defensive end. They return just about everybody and add a potential scorer in Butler transfer Chrishawn Hopkins. Last season this was a team that lacked offense and Hopkins might be the key player to spark the offense. There are some questions though, what if Hopkins isn't quite that guy and with the recent arrest of Tavares Sledge, this leaves some questions on where they will get production. So long their defense at worst stays where it was last season and if they can improve on their scoring they should win the HL regular season.

2nd: Valparaiso

Maybe it's my natural bias towards Valpo but I think they are poised to make a run for their third straight HL Regular Season Title. As we know a majority of their production graduated but with additions like Keith Carter and Moussa Gueye they should be a very difficult team to beat. Let us not forget, Capo is a force in the HL and once he becomes a regular starter he can be a match up nightmare for any defense. Adding the 7 foot 270 lbs Senegal native who was a defensive force in the SEC should sure up their defense and make teams much more one dimensional. Let us not forget about the incoming freshman. The question around the team this summer has been, where will the scoring come from? Could it be a freshman? Why not? Clay Yeo and Alec Peters should be able to make an immediate impact on the team and become a regular in the Valpo rotation if not start.

3rd: Cleveland State

Last year was an anomaly for the Vikings. They lost their best player, Anton Grady, due to a knee injury. With Grady back, who is one of the best players in the HL they're ready to be back as one of the elites in the HL. With Charlie Lee managing the point and Bryn Forbes who can be lights out from beyond the arc. Gary Waters should once again have his team poised to make a run in the HL.

4th: Oakland

Oakland has one of the best scorers in all of college basketball in Travis Bader. They return a majority of their team from last years .500 squad. With two other strong players in Cory Petros anchoring the middle and Duke Mondy this team could turn a few heads. There are some questions to how good they really are. They're making a big step up from playing in the Summit League where they only finished 10-7 in league play. One thing they can do is score but defense is another story and that will hold them back in the HL this season.

5th: Green Bay

One of the most overrated HL teams in my opinion. They do have one of the best all around players in Keifer Sykes but Alec Brown is a nothing more than a tall twig that is a decent shooter. Let us not forget the issue surrounding their head coach during the off-season as they saw a lot of players opt to transfer from the program. This was also a team that greatly underachieved last season, they were supposed to challenge for the HL crown and yes they did almost beat Valpo in the tournament but the fact is they didn't and they were handled pretty easily by them two other times. This team has a lot of questions around it and how will the team preform, will Alec Brown step-up and become an elite in the HL or will he continue to be nothing more than a twig that is a decent shooter.

6th: Youngstown State

The only good thing about this team is Kendrick Perry, without Perry this team would be among the very bottom of the league. They do have some young quality players in Kam Belin and Bobby Hain but I don't believe they're ready to make a run to the top. I do think Perry has the ability to win some games for the Penguins but he can't win them every game in every situation

7th: Detroit

Michigan transfer Carlton Brundidge does become eligible but after Brundidge there isn't much else there. They lost too much and aren't bringing back comparable talent to past teams. This should be a tough season for Titan fans as Detroit rebuilds.

8th: UIC

After a mediocre season last year the flames lose two of their best players in Josh Crittle, Gary Talton, and Daniel Barnes. Purdue transfer Kelsey Barlow does become eligible and Hayden Humes is a good player unfortunately for the Flames I don't see enough depth this season as they continue to be one of the HL bottom feeders.

9th: Milwaukee

Calling Milwaukee a bad team is a vast understatement they are flat out awful. They might win two to three games in HL play this year. They do return Jordan Aaron but that's all they have going for them an inconsistent shooter that had decent numbers because he would shoot the ball 25 times a game. They are by far the worst team in the HL if not one of the worst teams in the country. This is going to be a team people put a W on the schedule when they see Milwaukee pop up.

__________________________________

1st Team

Kendrick Perry (PoY): Kendrick Perry is by far the best player in the HL. He's a threat whenever he has the ball and can single handily beat any team that YSU plays.

Travis Bader: One of the country's leading scorers. He is poised to produce terrific numbers in the HL and continue on his scoring ways.

Anton Grady: Back for his "sophomore" season. After an early season-ending knee injury Grady is back for the Vikes and will be one of the best if not the best forward in the HL.

Keifer Sykes: Very similar to Kendrick Perry, he should have another great season and is only  a junior. He is by far the best player on the Phoenix.

Bobby Capobianco: A big man who can shoot the three also a terrific rebounder. Capobianco is poised to have a great year. Let us not forget last year he as an assist away from a Triple Double, this was from the bench as well. The Indiana transfer should have a great season as he becomes a leader on a young Valparaiso squad.


New Comer of the Year: Keith Carter, becomes available at the semester break for Valpo. He could very well be the next terrific guard that the HL seems to produce. It wouldn't shock me if he finds his way onto the first team. Rick Majerus said he was one of the best players he has every recruited and finished second for the Mr. Basketball in the talent rich state of Illinois his senior season.


Defensive PoY: Moussa Gueye, he might be the key to Valpo's season. He will be a defensive force standing at 7' 270 lbs he's the biggest player in the HL. The Alabama transfer was one of the best shot-blockers in the SEC and he can also rebound as well.

___

There's my prediction for the HL this year...

[Kyle321n]

Since we're sharing, here's my preview of it I wrote for Mid-Major Madness and will be published soon.

The Horizon League had 7 teams play in the postseason tournaments last season, but coming into the season it was believed that Detroit and Valparaiso would compete for the conference title.  With these top two teams losing a 90% of their starting lineups, Loyola-Chicago leaving for the Missouri Valley and Oakland joining the league, who will lead the conference and dance in March?

1. Green Bay Phoenix

Last year: 18-16 (10-6), Lost in HL Tourney Semifinals, Lost in CIT 1st round

Key Departures: Brennan Cougill (9.0ppg, 5.3 rpg), Sultan Muhammad (5.7ppg, 23.4 mpg), Kam Cerroni (5.8ppg)

Key Returners: Keifer Sykes (15.9ppg, 4.3apg), Alec Brown (14.1ppg, 6.0rpg), Jordan Fouse (6.8ppg, 7.9rpg)

Green Bay returns their best 3 players, and arguably 3 of the top 5 returning players in the conference.  After an offseason filled with turmoil, the Phoenix are looking to capitalize on their experience.  Sykes will be in contention for Player of the Year, Fouse will be filling a bigger role which suits him well, and Brown will be trying to prove that he is the NBA talent people have been talking about for 3 years now.  An 8-2 conference record at home seems very repeatable and if they can fix their road woes this should be the team representing the Horizon League in the Big Dance.

2. Wright State Raiders

Last year: 23-13 (10-6), HL Tourney Runner-Up, Lost in CBI Semifinal

Departures: None.

Key Returners: Everyone

The Raiders return all 12 of their rotation from last season.  Their formidable defense led the Horizon league giving up only 0.910 points per possession and 58.5 points per game.  Although their 23 wins were bolstered by a fairly weak schedule (Only 2 non-conference games played in the top 150 RPI) they continued to play well in conference.  With the addition of Chrishawn Hopkins from Butler, this team should prove to be a tough team to knock off in the Horizon League.  Hopkins, Reggie Arceneaux and Cole Darling make for one of the tougher match up issues for anyone in the league. Wright State fans don't need to be reminded that this was the same squad that was buzzer beater away from hosting the conference championship.

3. Oakland Golden Grizzlies

Last year: 16-17 (10-6), Lost in Summit League 1st Round, Lost in CBI 1st round (1-1 vs HL last season)

Departures: Drew Valentine (10.2ppg, 6.5rpg)

Key Returners: Travis Bader (22.1ppg, .394 FG%), Corey Petros (12.5ppg, 8.2 rpg), Duke Mondy (12.0ppg, 5.1apg)

This is the new kid on the block, and I'm not exactly sure how they will compete against the Horizon League.  Their returning players all dominated the Summit league, but their defense was woefully lacking (1.081 points per possession would have been last in the HL).  Will they sink or swim in the new conference?  I'm putting them as my third place team, with the assumption their offence can carry them ala Detroit last season.  One stat I'll be watching this season is Travis Bader's shots per game.  Last season he put up 15.8 per game, can he crack 20?

4. Valparaiso Crusaders

Last year: 26-8 (13-3), HL Tourney Champions, 14 seed in NCAAs (Lost to #3 Michigan St)

Departures: Ryan Broekhoff (15.7ppg), Kevin Van Wijk (12.4ppg), Matt Kenney (8.3ppg), Erik Buggs (7.0ppg), Will Bogan (6.4ppg), Ben Boggs (5.6ppg)

Key Returners: LaVonte Dority (8.6ppg, .371 FG%), Bobby Capobianco (5.9ppg, 4.5 rpg)

A dream season ended with a 2nd round exit in the NCAA tournament for the Crusaders.  And after that exit came the graduation of 6 of their top 7scorers last season.  Valpo lost 75.84% of the minutes played, 77.23% of their scoring, 75.20% of their rebounding, and 82.44% of their assists.  Now for the good things: They return the sixth man of the year LaVonte Dority, they return a big man in Bobby Capobianco, and they had arguably the best recruiting classes in the league.  With the second semester addition of Keith Carter, the Crusaders are reloading not rebuilding.  With a little luck and some fantastic Freshman performances, Valparaiso could repeat as conference champions.

5. Cleveland State Vikings

Last year: 14-18 (5-11), 1st round of HL Tourney

Departures: Tim Kamczyc (8.1ppg, 3.6rpg), Junior Lomomba (5.8ppg, 2.3rpg)

Key Returners: Bryn Forbes (12.7ppg, 3.5rpg), Charlie Lee (11.6ppg, 4.8apg), Marlin Mason (8.0ppg, 5.3rpg) Anton Grady (13.7ppg, 5.5rpg in 6 games)

Anton Grady returns after tearing a meniscus in his knee.  Losing Grady last season led to the emergence of Freshman Bryn Forbes to lead the team in scoring.  Unfortunately this also led them to a 5-11 conference record and a first round exit to UIC.  A young team should improve and could prove a good challenge for the top tier of the Horizon League.

6. Youngstown State Penguins

Last year: 18-16 (7-9), Lost in HL Semi-finals, Lost in CIT 2nd round

Departures: Blake Allen (12.4ppg, 3.1apg), Damian Eargle (11.8ppg, 6.6rpg, 3.2bpg)

Key Returners: Kendrick Perry (17.3ppg, 5.5rpg, 4.1apg), Kamren Belin (11.1ppg, 5.4rpg), DJ Cole (6.9ppg, 3.4apg)

Losing 3.2 blocks per game is tough for the Penguins, and Eargle was a huge contributor last season, earning Defensive Player of the Year.  Luckily they return First Team All-League Kendrick Perry, one of the most dynamic players in the league.  Perry should challenge Sykes for player of the year. Along with sophomore Kamren Belin, they will have a great backcourt, but the front court will remain a question mark.  If they can find someone to fill Eargle's mask... err... shoes, they should be able to make a run towards bigger things.

7. Illinois-Chicago (UIC) Flames

Last year: 18-16 (7-9), Lost in HL Tourney Quarterfinals, Lost in CIT 2nd round

Departures: Gary Talton (12.3ppg, 4.4apg), Daniel Barnes (12.1ppg, 4.4rpg), Josh Crittle (10.5ppg, 5.5rpg)

Key Returners: Hayden Humes (10.3ppg, 5.2rpg)

Humes returns for his senior season and he's accompanied by former Purdue guard, Kelsey Barlow.  Together they should provide an offensive spark to a team that is losing their top 3 starters.  The third best defensive team in the Horizon is hoping their offense improves from a dismal 62.8 points per game. I wouldn't say they are a bad team, but I believe they are missing pieces to become a conference championship contending team.

8. Detroit Titans

Last year: 20-13 (12-4), Lost in HL Tourney Semifinals, Lost in NIT 1st round

Departures: Ray McCallum (18.7ppg, 5.1rpg), Jason Calliste (14.4ppg, 3.3apg), Nick Minnerath (14.6, 5.9ppg), Doug Anderson (12.1ppg, 110% dunk-itude)

Key Returners: Juwan Howard Jr. (7.6ppg, 3.2rpg), Evan Bruinsma (5.6ppg, 4.3rpg)

When your star player is a 2nd round NBA draft pick, you know you've got a good one.  When you lose 80% of your starting lineup, you know you could be in trouble.  Detroit could be reeling from the loss of player of the year Ray Jr., but more importantly they could be in trouble losing key role players in Calliste and Minnerath.  Hopefully another junior, Juwan Jr. can fill a portion of McCallum's shoes and Detroit won't be below water two years after being a tournament team.

9. Milwaukee Panthers

Last year: 8-24 (3-13), Lost 1st round in HL Tourney

Departures: Paris Gulley (14.7ppg, 3.5rpg), Demetrius Harris (9.1ppg, 5.3rpg), James Haarsma (6.5ppg, 4.5rpg)

Key Returners: Jordan Aaron (14.4ppg, 4.0apg, .371 FG%), Austin Arians (6.6ppg, .382 FG%), Kyle Kelm (5.1ppg, 3.6rpg)

This is a team in the Horizon league.  They were coached by Bo Ryan and Bruce Pearl at one point.  They aren't anymore.  They lost their top scorer and their top two rebounders.  This could be a really rough season again for the Panthers. This was the only team to shoot below 40% in the league last season and it'll be interesting to see if they can improve their shot selection.

[wh]

Nice write-ups, Kyle321n and classof2014.  Your thoughts about Green Bay are about as different as any two opinions could be at this point.  It will be interesting to see how that plays out.

[Kyle321n]

I'm a big believer in Fouse, and I'm not sure if 2014 is considering his increased role.  But I completely agree with him on Brown. Tall twig who can shoot a 3 or two.

[LaPorteAveApostle]

Kyle likes him some Fouse.

EDIT: lol

[EddieCabot]

Here is my personal preview of what the HL will look like come March.

1st: Wright State

Wright State is poised to finish first in the HL. They are a well-coached team that is great on the defensive end. They return just about everybody and add a potential scorer in Butler transfer Chrishawn Hopkins. Last season this was a team that lacked offense and Hopkins might be the key player to spark the offense. There are some questions though, what if Hopkins isn't quite that guy and with the recent arrest of Tavares Sledge, this leaves some questions on where they will get production. So long their defense at worst stays where it was last season and if they can improve on their scoring they should win the HL regular season.

2nd: Valparaiso

Maybe it's my natural bias towards Valpo but I think they are poised to make a run for their third straight HL Regular Season Title. As we know a majority of their production graduated but with additions like Keith Carter and Moussa Gueye they should be a very difficult team to beat. Let us not forget, Capo is a force in the HL and once he becomes a regular starter he can be a match up nightmare for any defense. Adding the 7 foot 270 lbs Senegal native who was a defensive force in the SEC should sure up their defense and make teams much more one dimensional. Let us not forget about the incoming freshman. The question around the team this summer has been, where will the scoring come from? Could it be a freshman? Why not? Clay Yeo and Alec Peters should be able to make an immediate impact on the team and become a regular in the Valpo rotation if not start.

3rd: Cleveland State

Last year was an anomaly for the Vikings. They lost their best player, Anton Grady, due to a knee injury. With Grady back, who is one of the best players in the HL they're ready to be back as one of the elites in the HL. With Charlie Lee managing the point and Bryn Forbes who can be lights out from beyond the arc. Gary Waters should once again have his team poised to make a run in the HL.

4th: Oakland

Oakland has one of the best scorers in all of college basketball in Travis Bader. They return a majority of their team from last years .500 squad. With two other strong players in Cory Petros anchoring the middle and Duke Mondy this team could turn a few heads. There are some questions to how good they really are. They're making a big step up from playing in the Summit League where they only finished 10-7 in league play. One thing they can do is score but defense is another story and that will hold them back in the HL this season.

5th: Green Bay

One of the most overrated HL teams in my opinion. They do have one of the best all around players in Keifer Sykes but Alec Brown is a nothing more than a tall twig that is a decent shooter. Let us not forget the issue surrounding their head coach during the off-season as they saw a lot of players opt to transfer from the program. This was also a team that greatly underachieved last season, they were supposed to challenge for the HL crown and yes they did almost beat Valpo in the tournament but the fact is they didn't and they were handled pretty easily by them two other times. This team has a lot of questions around it and how will the team preform, will Alec Brown step-up and become an elite in the HL or will he continue to be nothing more than a twig that is a decent shooter.

6th: Youngstown State

The only good thing about this team is Kendrick Perry, without Perry this team would be among the very bottom of the league. They do have some young quality players in Kam Belin and Bobby Hain but I don't believe they're ready to make a run to the top. I do think Perry has the ability to win some games for the Penguins but he can't win them every game in every situation

7th: Detroit

Michigan transfer Carlton Brundidge does become eligible but after Brundidge there isn't much else there. They lost too much and aren't bringing back comparable talent to past teams. This should be a tough season for Titan fans as Detroit rebuilds.

8th: UIC

After a mediocre season last year the flames lose two of their best players in Josh Crittle, Gary Talton, and Daniel Barnes. Purdue transfer Kelsey Barlow does become eligible and Hayden Humes is a good player unfortunately for the Flames I don't see enough depth this season as they continue to be one of the HL bottom feeders.

9th: Milwaukee

Calling Milwaukee a bad team is a vast understatement they are flat out awful. They might win two to three games in HL play this year. They do return Jordan Aaron but that's all they have going for them an inconsistent shooter that had decent numbers because he would shoot the ball 25 times a game. They are by far the worst team in the HL if not one of the worst teams in the country. This is going to be a team people put a W on the schedule when they see Milwaukee pop up.

__________________________________

1st Team

Kendrick Perry (PoY): Kendrick Perry is by far the best player in the HL. He's a threat whenever he has the ball and can single handily beat any team that YSU plays.

Travis Bader: One of the country's leading scorers. He is poised to produce terrific numbers in the HL and continue on his scoring ways.

Anton Grady: Back for his "sophomore" season. After an early season-ending knee injury Grady is back for the Vikes and will be one of the best if not the best forward in the HL.

Keifer Sykes: Very similar to Kendrick Perry, he should have another great season and is only  a junior. He is by far the best player on the Phoenix.

Bobby Capobianco: A big man who can shoot the three also a terrific rebounder. Capobianco is poised to have a great year. Let us not forget last year he as an assist away from a Triple Double, this was from the bench as well. The Indiana transfer should have a great season as he becomes a leader on a young Valparaiso squad.


New Comer of the Year: Keith Carter, becomes available at the semester break for Valpo. He could very well be the next terrific guard that the HL seems to produce. It wouldn't shock me if he finds his way onto the first team. Rick Majerus said he was one of the best players he has every recruited and finished second for the Mr. Basketball in the talent rich state of Illinois his senior season.


Defensive PoY: Moussa Gueye, he might be the key to Valpo's season. He will be a defensive force standing at 7' 270 lbs he's the biggest player in the HL. The Alabama transfer was one of the best shot-blockers in the SEC and he can also rebound as well.

___

There's my prediction for the HL this year...

Nicely done, 2014.  For those who think of Valpo as a "young team", let me point out that by the time league play starts in January, the average age of Dority/Capobianco/Gueye/Fernandez/Chadwick/Coleman will be about 22 1/2 years.  They'll also need contributions from some freshmen, but they've got a very mature and experienced group to build around. 

[Kyle321n]

Nicely done, 2014.  For those who think of Valpo as a "young team", let me point out that by the time league play starts in January, the average age of Dority/Capobianco/Gueye/Fernandez/Chadwick/Coleman will be about 22 1/2 years.  They'll also need contributions from some freshmen, but they've got a very mature and experienced group to build around. 

Not so much young, but inexperienced. They have a combined 3145 D1 minutes played coming into this year.  That's how many minutes Rowdy played in his career or 400 less than Alec Brown has played so far.

[classof2014]

I'm a big believer in Fouse, and I'm not sure if 2014 is considering his increased role.  But I completely agree with him on Brown. Tall twig who can shoot a 3 or two.

I do believe that Fouse will see an increased roll and will be a very strong player. My main questions surrounding GB is coaching. We all know about the allegations on Wardle in the off-season and I don't believe he is that good of a coach.

[wh]

I'm a big believer in Fouse, and I'm not sure if 2014 is considering his increased role.  But I completely agree with him on Brown. Tall twig who can shoot a 3 or two.

I do believe that Fouse will see an increased roll and will be a very strong player. My main questions surrounding GB is coaching. We all know about the allegations on Wardle in the off-season and I don't believe he is that good of a coach.

The way GB defended the game-winning shot in last year's tournament was one of the worst coaching blunders I have seen in a long time.  First, Ryan was completely unguarded until he crossed the half court line, which gave him time to size up the defense and position himself for a good shot.  He even had enough time to regain control after mishandling the ball and still get up a good shot.  Moreover, their half court defense had the look and feel of a tight knit zone designed to prevent Ryan from driving to the basket, when the only thing that could beat them was a 3-pointer.

[Pathfinder]

This made me laugh a bit:

After a mediocre season last year the flames lose two of their best players in Josh Crittle, Gary Talton, and Daniel Barnes.

So which one wasn't one of their best players last year?

[EddieCabot]

I'm a big believer in Fouse, and I'm not sure if 2014 is considering his increased role.  But I completely agree with him on Brown. Tall twig who can shoot a 3 or two.

I do believe that Fouse will see an increased roll and will be a very strong player. My main questions surrounding GB is coaching. We all know about the allegations on Wardle in the off-season and I don't believe he is that good of a coach.

The way GB defended the game-winning shot in last year's tournament was one of the worst coaching blunders I have seen in a long time.  First, Ryan was completely unguarded until he crossed the half court line, which gave him time to size up the defense and position himself for a good shot.  He even had enough time to regain control after mishandling the ball and still get up a good shot.  Moreover, their half court defense had the look and feel of a tight knit zone designed to prevent Ryan from driving to the basket, when the only thing that could beat them was a 3-pointer.

Very good points ... even a rookie coach knows that with a 2 point lead, all you need to worry about is preventing a 3-pointer.

It's also worth noting that over the last 10:00 of that game, GB only trailed for about 0:12, yet managed to lose.  GB led by 4 with 0:13 left, but that still wasn't enough.  That choke job is clearly on the coach ... what remains to be seen is whether he'll learn from his mistakes or repeat them.  Same for the players, since most of them return. 

As Kyle pointed out, GB has a bunch of talented players, but I also agree with 2014 that team chemistry is a question mark.  I'm firmly on the fence until I see them play a few games. 

[LaPorteAveApostle]

So which one wasn't one of their best players last year?

I'm sure even Daniel Barnes himself wouldn't argue the point.

[wh]

Green Bay - Commissioner's choice to win the Horizon League


Horizon Analysis - Green Bay
by Commissioner » Wed Oct 02, 2013 9:16 pm

This is the 4th pre-season analysis of Horizon teams. Earlier ones for Wright State, Valparaiso, and Oakland can be found through this link: viewtopic.php?f=2&t=1185 or at http://udtitanbasketball.freeforums.net ... n-previews.

Green Bay
2013: 10-6 Conference (3d T); 18-16 overall; CIT.

I don't like predictions – they can be wrong. Open-ended analysis provides a better margin of safety- you can never be definitively proven incorrect. But I will confess, Green Bay would be my choice to win what should be a wide open Horizon league race this year. I think any team but Milwaukee could win it, and the odds of Green Bay winning are well under less than 50 percent. But if forced to choose, I'd go with the Phoenix.

When I analyzed Wright State's chances, I noted that there are several signs that the Raiders simply over-performed last year. For Green Bay, those signs tend to go the other way – the Phoenix should have done better. For one thing, Green Bay was 2-5 in games decided by a single possession. While Green Bay and Wright State finished with identical 10-6 conference marks, the Phoenix won by an average of 4.9 ppg, to Wright State's 3.1 ppg margin. After a miserable start, the Phoenix went a very respectable 15-9, including a win over Marquette. Green Bay also had to get through a number of distractions during the season, including the flap with Ryan Bross and Wardle's coaching style, but also the suspension of Brennan Cougill for violating team rules, and the mid-season departure of 3 point specialist Kam Ceroni. I've no idea of who was right or wrong, but it doesn't matter. Some think this will be a distraction this year. I think the opposite is more likely – the distractions are over and the guys who are left know what to expect and want to be there.

Green Bay also got the benefit of an overseas trip this summer, which I think usually pay dividends. Playing admittedly weak competition in the Bahamas, they won all three games even though playing without star Alec Brown, who was out with a sprained ankle. He'll be ready by the time the season starts, and in fact has never missed a game in his 3 years at Green Bay.

Green Bay's fortunes will rise or fall with two players: center Brown and point guard Kiefer Sykes. Brown's 2013 season was widely viewed as a disappointment, although in fact his numbers were remarkably similar to 2012. His scoring and assists were actually up a bit, though the rest of his stats were down slightly across the board. This may have gone largely unnoticed because he came on strong late, after most everybody had already labeled his season "disappointing." For the season, Brown averaged 14.1 points, shooting just .449. But he was getting better all season. For example, he averaged just 11.9 ppg in non-conference play, versus 15.8 in conference. For his last 12 games, he averaged 17.1 ppg and nearly 2 blocks per game, while shooting .517 from the floor. He was playing his best ball down the stretch, averaging 19.3 points and 6.3 rebounds, while shooting 56% from the floor, over Green Bay's last 6 games. In other words, he kept getting better all season, almost any way you slice it. I'm guessing Brown has a really big year in 2014, but that's just my guess.

Sykes gives the Phoenix an excellent point guard, so they've got arguably the league's best players at arguably the two most important positions. Sykes, first team all-conference a year ago, looked very ready in the Caribbean, averaging 24 points, 6 assists, and 6.3 steals in the Bahamas.

But there's more behind these two. Up front, Jordan Fouse led the league in rebounding as a freshman. Indeed, the Phoenix were the best rebounding team in the league last year, and ought to be again. Brennan Cougill, a tough rebounder, is gone, but 6-8 junior Alfonzo McKinney, a high school teammate of Sykes and a transfer from Eastern Illinois, steps in to take his place. As a sophomore at EIU in 2012, McKinney averaged 10.2 points and 7 rebounds, while shooting .567 from the floor, second best in the OVC. McKinney averaged 9.3 rebounds in just 14 minutes per game in the Bahamas. 6-9 junior Greg Mays is another banger up front. Dan Turner was the team's leading rebounder as a freshman in 2011, but has been hurt most of the past two years. He missed the Bahamas games and can't be counted on in 2014, but if he were to come back, the Phoenix would be downright scary on the boards.

In the backcourt, Sykes is joined by returning sophomore Carrington Love, and three players who weren't around a year ago: Lamin Fulton, an active guard who transferred from St. Peter's by way of NW Florida JC, Rutgers transfer Vince Garrett (also a high school teammate of Sykes), and soph swing man Josh Humphrey, back from an injury red shirt year. They've also got a pair of big freshmen guards who might surprise.

The downside to picking Green Bay to win it is that the Phoenix haven't really addressed their weaknesses of a year ago – turnovers and lack of 3 point shooting. Last year they were 6th in the league in total turnovers and 8th in turnover margin. Neither Garrett nor Humphries will help much there, and Fulton had more turnovers than assists at St. Pete's two years ago. Meanwhile, the transfer out of Sultan Muhammad will hurt. On the three-point front, the Phoenix were 8th in 3 point FGPct., and last in three-pointers made last season. Muhammad and Ceroni were the club's biggest 3 point threats, and both transferred out. Sykes and Brown both shot over 40% from behind the arc last year, so they're not without long-range threats, but both took only about 70 attempts. Fulton will take the trey, too, but it's not his strength. The Bahamas trip was not encouraging: Sykes shot 2 of 13 from behind the arc, his one shortcoming on the trip, while Love was 3 of 15.

At the other end of the floor, Brown and Fouse are the league's top two returning shot blockers, and a big reason why Green Bay was second last year in opponent's shooting percentage. But breakdowns on the perimeter mean that they give up a lot of 3 pointers – worst in the league last year except for Detroit.

So in some ways, the 2014 Phoenix look a lot like the 2013 Phoenix. But that's not the worst place to be, and there are enough indicators that the Phoenix did not live up to their talent last year. I think things will be different in 2014.

Probable Starters:
PG – Keifer Sykes, 5-11 Jr.; 15;9 ppg, 4.3 apg; 3.3 rpg, 1.1 steals pg; .431 3P%; .815 FT Pct.
G- Carrington Love, 6-1 Soph: 2.6 ppg
F- Alfonze McKinney, 6-8 Jr. (2012 Eastern Illinois): 10.2 ppg, 7.0 rpg; .567 FG%
F- Jordan Fouse, 6-7 Soph: 6.8 ppg, 7.9 rpg; 1.6 spg, 1.4 blocks.
C – Alec Brown, 7-1 Sr., 14.1 ppg, 6.0 rpg, 1.7 bpg.

Other Key Players:
G – Lamin Fulton, 5-10 Jr. (NW Florida JC; averaged 8.9 ppg for St. Peter's in 2012)
G/F – Josh Humphrey, 6-5 Soph. (2012) 1.1 ppg, 2.1 rpg.
G – Vince Garrett, 6-6 Sr. (Rutgers) 1.5 ppg.
F – Greg Mays, 6-9 Jr.: 6.5 ppg, 4.7 rpg

[zvillehaze]

That's a very nice writeup by The Commish, and pretty much in line with a post I made over in the '13-'14 thread in the Valpo section.  I like WSU's roster and think Donlon is a very good coach, but if I was forced to put money on the Horizon this year, I'd put it on Green Bay.

Several people have brought up the issues with Wardle from last year that carried into the off-season.  Commish seems to be the only guy who agrees with me ... the guys who don't like Wardle's style left and the guys who stayed should be stronger and more cohesive.  As I pointed out earlier, Sykes and Brown were very vocal in their support of Wardle, so I expect the rest of the team to follow their lead. 

With all that said, the Horizon appears to be very wide open this year.  Should be an exciting year!

[valpopal]

Two excerpts from an article, "You Gotta See This: Horizon League," at ESPN:

"Deliberate, defensive. Save Detroit, which cracked the vaunted 70-possessions-per-game mark last season, and Youngstown State, which finished at around 67 per, the Horizon League was its usual self. Five teams averaged fewer than 64 possessions per game. Six fell below 65, and Valparaiso finished at 65.4. This is not a fast league. Could it become one?"

"The Horizon League is in an interesting place now. Butler got so good it outgrew its old denizens, moving to the A-10 and now the new Big East, but according to Ken Pomeroy's conference rankings, the league was still the 11th-best top-to-bottom, just behind a now-decimated Conference USA. What Oakland can do for that overall league strength, and for the nightly entertainment value, is entirely worth watching."

Full article: http://espn.go.com/blog/collegebasketballnation/post/_/id/88758/you-gotta-see-this-horizon-league

[LaPorteAveApostle]

TOP TENNNNNNN

[wh]

Two excerpts from an article, "You Gotta See This: Horizon League," at ESPN:

"Deliberate, defensive. Save Detroit, which cracked the vaunted 70-possessions-per-game mark last season, and Youngstown State, which finished at around 67 per, the Horizon League was its usual self. Five teams averaged fewer than 64 possessions per game. Six fell below 65, and Valparaiso finished at 65.4. This is not a fast league. Could it become one?"

"The Horizon League is in an interesting place now. Butler got so good it outgrew its old denizens, moving to the A-10 and now the new Big East, but according to Ken Pomeroy's conference rankings, the league was still the 11th-best top-to-bottom, just behind a now-decimated Conference USA. What Oakland can do for that overall league strength, and for the nightly entertainment value, is entirely worth watching."

Full article: http://espn.go.com/blog/collegebasketballnation/post/_/id/88758/you-gotta-see-this-horizon-league

The author refers to Butler's back-to-back runs to the national championship game as "proof that belief, guile and luck were sometimes enough."  That's the best description of "the Butler way" that I've seen to date.  As to conference rankings, while it remains to be seen whether the addition of Oakland helps move us up the ladder, the subtraction of Loyola certainly helps keep us from moving down the ladder.  They should be even worse this year than last, and have assembled what could be the worst OOC schedule in the country.  Good luck working with that, MVC.

[zvillehaze]

ESPN Insider preview summarized on the Horizon League website:

http://www.horizonleague.org/blog/espn-insider-previews-the-horizon-league

[valpotx]

I love it!  Keep predicting us to be a bottom dweller, pleaseeeee!  We are not that type of program while Bryce is at the helm

[vu72]

A couple of thoughts. First, the author says (see Youngstown State summary) that Ray McCallum "ran away with the Player of the Year honors".. I can't imagine that it wasn't a very close contest with Ryan.  Second, I  know, I sound like a broken record, but, still, no mention of the possible impact of a 7' Alabama transfer.

[valpotx]

I found the McCallum comment indicative of the type of projection he was making...complete crap