Predicting November

[wh]

Since Nov. is only a few days away, now seems like a good time to begin our month-by-month prediction poll.  Following is November's 9-game schedule, 6 of which are at the ARC:

Fri, Nov 8      Murray State
Sun, Nov 10   North Park
Wed, Nov 13  at Illinois
Sun, Nov 17   at Ohio
Wed, Nov 20  at Evansville
Sat, Nov 23   James Madison
Tue, Nov 26   UCF
Fri, Nov 29    Mercer
Sat, Nov 30   Cincinnati Christian

What will our November record be?

[wh]

I am going to conservatively say 5-4. Losses:

Murray State - tied for 1st in preseason OVC poll
Illinois - pretty obvious
Ohio - 12 returning lettermen - picked 1st in MAC
Mercer - top 3 A-Sun team

This is not an easy OOC schedule, as we all know.  If Carter were in uniform, I could see 6-3 or even 7-2.

[historyman]

I am going to conservatively say 5-4. Losses: Murray State - tied for 1st in preseason OVC poll Illinois - pretty obvious Ohio - 12 returning lettermen - picked 1st in MAC Mercer - top 3 A-Sun team This is not an easy OOC schedule, as we all know.  If Carter were in uniform, I could see 6-3 or even 7-2.

I also picked 5-4.

I was thinking this team will be up and down. Even if we lose to Murray State, Illinois, Ohio and Mercer, that leaves winning against UCF and Evansville on the road and James Madison at home. I'm pretty sure VU beats North Park and Cincinnati Christian.

I'll predict that Valpo will lose one of the UCF / Evansville / James Madison games but pull a surprise and win one of the Murray State / Ohio / Mercer games. 

[valpotx]

I picked 6-3, with our losses being at Illinois, Ohio, and Evansville.  I see our home court advantage giving confidence to and carrying our young guys to wins, but road jitters taking an early toll on all of our road games.  Even though Evansville is probably beatable, we seem to encounter weird officiating each time we go there, and that will frustrate someone not used to the college game at this point in the season.

[LaPorteAveApostle]

I picked 6-3, with our losses being at Illinois, Ohio, and Evansville.

long-time lurker, first time poster, mega dittoes

[classof2014]

I say they're 7-2 by the end of November.

I think they'll go 2-2 in the Illinois, Ohio, Evansville, and Mercer games. All the others they win.

[justducky]

We could get 5 wins but I went with 4. If the team can somehow manage to reach 6 then my season expectations will rise dramatically, but I see way too much trial and error before things really start to click.

[Kyle321n]

I'm putting 6.  I think the Murray State will be a big confidence boost for the freshmen and I think Illinois, Evansville and UCF will be tough games.  It sucks they put UCF on the schedule for Thanksgiving week so our student section could be gone.

[a3uge]

4-5, and I think that's pretty realistic... 3-6 seems more likely than 5-4 and I wouldn't be shocked if they only won the two non-D1 games, but I think we'll get 2 wins out of the non-D1 schools somewhere, probably at home.

North Park and Cincinnati Christian should be wins. James Madison is the next most winnable game. They were a tourney team, but a 16 seed. They should be a middle of Colonial team (random side note: undrafted Gary Neal's alma mater Towson should be pretty good this year... bracketbuster right there).

UCF could be winnable and then Mercer (won the ASun regular season only to get upset by Dunk City in the tourney).

Winning on the road is going to be difficult early with this team. @ Evansville is their next most winnable game. They're probably a middle of the road MVC team.

Murray State's going to be hard to win - first game of the year for a team that has all new starters.

@ Illinois and @ Ohio... these are going to be the toughest to win.

Of course I haven't actually seen this team yet, just saw box score against a DII opponent. Until proven otherwise, I'm going to balk at being a heavy optimist and expect this to still be a rebuilding year with the freshmen getting a lot of minutes.

[78crusader]

3-6, unfortunately, seems to be the most likely outcome.  4-5 is the next most likely, with 5-4 a possibility. 

Paul

[valpopal]

I went with 4-5, and I am willing to be pleasantly surprised with anything better. In truth, this year I am not as concerned at all with out of conference won-lost results as I am with team development toward the conference season and especially the conference tournament. If the team, particularly the freshmen, can gain good experience and all (including Carter) blend well by then, as well as maintain health, I will be satisfied. My best case scenario has Valpo surprising everyone at conference tournament time.

[talksalot]

My Gut says 4-5.... my heart says 5-4... so I went with 5-4.   

random thoughts about last saturday...
Need Moussa to be a lot more aggressive and that would help...  Vashil certainly stepped up his game on Saturday in the second half.... and Alec Peters will be a HL Stud for years to come...Lexus, Lavonte and Clay handled the ball well.   Hillsdale is a pretty good team with a lot of depth from last year's 17-10 season.  They have Toledo and IU-Bloomington next up on their schedule ... that would not happen if they were a lesser caliber D2 team.  Let's see how they compare to last year, when we lace them up against the eagles of RM on Saturday.  last year, on 11/3/12, we beat'em 92-64, they finished 17-14 and lost in their conference semi-s.  They go 6-7, 6-6, 6-6... for their height.  and they have a head coach with 17 years of experience and 5 first-year assistants.    Maybe Lexus can dish up another alley-oop for Jordan!   

oh... Hey Section H... pretty pathetic for the pizza give away... "stand up and yell for a pizza"... I've been in quieter libraries!  Ok, got that off my chest.   

Hope to see everyone for the double header on Saturday.... one outside and one inside.

[EddieCabot]

I went with 7-2.  Valpo doesn't lose at the ARC, so there's 6 wins.  If they go 1-2 on the road (UE being the likely suspect), they get to 7 wins.

[bbtds]

The thing about the Murray State game is that the Racers lost an awful lot of talent in Canaan & Daniel(the big afro guy). Winning that game will depend on whether our freshmen and transfers are better than theirs. Both teams are rebuilding/reloading.

[Dave_2010]

So much depends on how they perform in the opener against a very good Murray State squad:

If the team gels fast enough to win that game, I doubt there is an opponent coming to the ARC that is talented enough to beat them on their own floor, making 6-3 a possibility. Steal one of the road games at Evansville or Ohio and suddenly you're looking at a 7-win month.

Conversely, if the team loses the opener, there is a good chance they open the season 1-4. A slip-up in one of the next three would guarantee them a sub-.500 record for the month.

I hedged my bet and answered 5-4 (with 4-5 being equally likely). Because of this team's talent, I think they have a good chance of opening 2-3 in the first five with Murray at home and Evansville on the road as the likely candidates for win #2. Considering this team's youth and historic inclination for the inexplicable home loss, I don't see them winning 4 in a row, especially given the dead environment that ARC is over Thanksgiving week...3-1 is almost guaranteed, with 2-2 not being out of the realm of possibility.

[bw12]

The thing about the Murray State game is that the Racers lost an awful lot of talent in Canaan & Daniel(the big afro guy). Winning that game will depend on whether our freshmen and transfers are better than theirs. Both teams are rebuilding/reloading.

Not only did they lose a lot of talent, but they also lost their starting point guard and arguably best player. With their recent run, their name carries of weight, but they are in a very similar reloading/rebuilding situation as us. I am excited to see how we match up against a team very similar, but one we should beat at home.

Can't post a link, but here is the quote from a story on ESPN. "Murray State point guard Zay Jackson, who was expected to be the Racers top player this season, is out for the year after suffering a knee injury in practice on Saturday."

That being said we should win all our games at home, but I predict loses to Illinois, Ohio, and then against any random team just because we are not on our game.

[bbtds]

The thing about the Murray State game is that the Racers lost an awful lot of talent in Canaan & Daniel(the big afro guy). Winning that game will depend on whether our freshmen and transfers are better than theirs. Both teams are rebuilding/reloading.

Not only did they lose a lot of talent, but they also lost their starting point guard and arguably best player. With their recent run, their name carries of weight, but they are in a very similar reloading/rebuilding situation as us. I am excited to see how we match up against a team very similar, but one we should beat at home.

Can't post a link, but here is the quote from a story on ESPN. "Murray State point guard Zay Jackson, who was expected to be the Racers top player this season, is out for the year after suffering a knee injury in practice on Saturday."

That being said we should win all our games at home, but I predict loses to Illinois, Ohio, and then against any random team just because we are not on our game.

Here's what Murray State has


NEWCOMERS

Cameron Payne
6-2 freshman guard
Luasanne Collegiate School Memphis, TN
Mr. Basketball in Tennessee
HS team won 2A Tenn State Championship
20 points per game
10 assists per game

Jonathon Fairell
6-7 junior forward
River State College Ft Pierce, FL
17.7 points per game
11.8 rebounds per game

Jarvis Williams
6-8 junior forward
Gordon State College Barnesville, GA
19 points per game
10 rebounds per game
HS team won State Championship in GA

Jeff Martin
5-11 freshman guard
Seven Lakes HS Katy, TX
13 points per game
5 assists and 3 steals per game

T.J. Sapp (won't play against Valpo)
6-3 junior guard
transfer from Clemson but just like Keith Carter
won't play until 2nd semester


RETURNING:

Dexter Fields
6-2 senior guard
transfer from UAB two years ago
scored 12 against Valpo
had 8 double digit scoring games
6.5 points per game

Jeffery Moss
6-4 sophomore forward
21.4 minutes per game
4 double digit scoring games
4.4 points per game

There are other returnees but none with significant minutes.

The loss of Zay Jackson is really going to hurt them. He red-shirted last year and looked to have a lot of talent.

http://www.midmajormadness.com/ohio-valley-conference/2013/10/7/4814030/murray-state-guard-zay-jackson-tears-acl-out-for-season

With a tough schedule, and little in the way of experience, the Racers outlook wasn't great with a fully healthy Jackson, with most, including us (Foreshadowing!), picking the Racers in the middle of the OVC West Division. Now, the Racers have an even steeper climb to stay with the top of the conference, and possibly even to keep their impressive streak of 26-straight winning seasons intact.

If ever there was a time for a loud, student led, ARC crowd it's against this newbie Racers team.

[classof2014]

I think we should be able to handle Murray State. I think they're in a similar boat as we are, a lot of unknowns and their first game being on the road and especially losing their PG for the season will definitely hurt them quite a bit.

I just looked and they lost quite a bit from last season. In that game they only had 17 points coming from players who are on this roster as well and 12 of them from one player (Dexter Fields). While we return 25 points of scoring from that game. I know we lost a lot of talent but I think they lost more than we did and now without them having a starting PG, I think it makes a Valpo win that much more likely on opening night.

Not gonna guarantee a win, especially with a boatload of newcomers on the team but I give us at least a 75% chance of winning this game.

[bbtds]

http://murrayledger.com/sports/murray_state/msu-tabbed-as-co-favorite/article_5b819626-3ba0-11e3-9447-0019bb2963f4.html

"Jeffery Moss and Dexter Fields are our only two returners, so it's not a surprise," Prohm said. "Our best player returning (Zay Jackson) didn't play last year, and now he's not playing again this year (out for the season with a torn ACL). We were picked first in our division (by the OVC coaches),

And even with depleted numbers entering the season (the Racers will open the year with just nine scholarship players) Prohm said the expectations in Racer Country are the same.

"Our goal never changes," he said. "You win as many conference games as you can, win your side of the league and win a double-bye in Nashville in the OVC Tournament. Once you are there, you're expected to win, and that will be what we work for everyday and push toward.

"Our goal is not going to change, because it can't change."

The Racers will open the season at Valparaiso Friday, Nov. 8 at 7:30 p.m.

[valpotx]

We have to remember that the OVC as a conference is a decent amount worse than the HL, and especially the division Murray State is in.  I believe just about everyone in their division had a 200+ RPI last year.

Edit: Confirmed - http://warrennolan.com/basketball/2013/conference/Ohio%20Valley

[wh]

The thing about the Murray State game is that the Racers lost an awful lot of talent in Canaan & Daniel(the big afro guy). Winning that game will depend on whether our freshmen and transfers are better than theirs. Both teams are rebuilding/reloading.

Not only did they lose a lot of talent, but they also lost their starting point guard and arguably best player. With their recent run, their name carries of weight, but they are in a very similar reloading/rebuilding situation as us. I am excited to see how we match up against a team very similar, but one we should beat at home.

Can't post a link, but here is the quote from a story on ESPN. "Murray State point guard Zay Jackson, who was expected to be the Racers top player this season, is out for the year after suffering a knee injury in practice on Saturday."

That being said we should win all our games at home, but I predict loses to Illinois, Ohio, and then against any random team just because we are not on our game.

Well, if we renew our series with Murray State after this year, Zay Jackson won't be in a Racer uniform:

http://ovcball.net/2013/10/zay-jackson-to-transfer/

[milanmiracle]

I went optimistic and said 5-4. They'll lose to Murray State, Illinois, Ohio, and Mercer. I could also see a loss to UCF, but I'll give them that win in light of the Mercer loss. Flip those if you'd like. I wouldn't be stunned to see them go 2-7, but I also wouldn't be totally surprised by 6-3. The reality is we really don't know much about this team yet, how they play team D against actual opponents, or who will be the go to guy in the last 2 minutes of the game. I think these things will take time, and since they're so young that's okay.

[wh]

For anyone else who may want to predict our November record, voting closes at 9:30 p.m. tonight.

Also, best of luck to voters classof2014 and EddieCabot, who optimistically predicted 7-2!   

[historyman]

For anyone else who may want to predict our November record, voting closes at 9:30 p.m. tonight. Also, best of luck to voters classof2014 and EddieCabot, who optimistically predicted 7-2!

I predicted 5-4 before I saw the team play. I'll stick with the 5-4 but I truly think the 7-2 is a real possibility after seeing them play.

As I have said, yes, there will be some real letdowns but the strengths of this team could very well overcome the weaknesses and really emphasize the opponents' weaknesses. How Valpo matches up with their opponents, as usual, will be extremely important for this Valpo team.

[EddieCabot]

For anyone else who may want to predict our November record, voting closes at 9:30 p.m. tonight.

Also, best of luck to voters classof2014 and EddieCabot, who optimistically predicted 7-2!   

I predicted 1-2 on the road, with that win likely at UE, so I'm still feeling good about my pick.  If anything, Valpo had better showings at UI and OU than I anticipated ... they could have easily won both of those games.  Plenty of reasons for optimism.