Valpo Opponents' Schedule & Results 2013-14

[LaPorteAveApostle]

Isn't "seem like" more of a "feelingsball" kind of verb. How can a person or even a number "seem like" statistically?

All right, it ISN'T the best use of shots. See his line from last night.  He sucked it up.

Was that too much of a hedge?  Sure, but apparently it seems like you don't understand that the use of "seems like" implies an indirect object reflecting back on the speaker.  I make factual errors, not grammatical.

[Pathfinder]

So who are the 5 best players in the Horizon League. If you were picking an all-conference team now, who would it be?

Sykes and Perry. After that no one really stands out.
Howard
Peters and Lavonte
Barlow
Forbes
Fouse?
Bader
Matt Tiby
I'd consider Mondy but I wouldn't vote for the guy for other reasons.

I'd go with Sykes and Perry and 3 of the other 8 guys - probably Forbes, Tiby, and, though I'm not a big fan, Bader, if forced to choose.

[vu72]

I think either Peters or Dority, probably Dority will make it.  He will be tough to shut down and on a top tier team will have plenty of exposure, as well as being a senior.

[SanityLost17]

Green Bay lost to East Michigan tonight by 10

I think this shows that there is not a single team in the HL who is going to be able to consistently win on the road during league play.  Is it possible that this year the regular season conference champion has 5 or 6 losses? 

Also, I like to speculate on what our record would be if we played the same non-con schedule as other HL teams.  I think...
Milwaukee = same record as them
Youngstown = 2 more wins
Green Bay = 1 more loss 
WSU = 3 more wins
Detroit= 1 more win
CSU = same record as them
UIC = 3 more wins
Oakland = 2 more wins

I also think that Green Bay and Cleveland State would have better records than us if they played our schedule.  This year is definitely wide open, but I do think both Milwaukee and us are just a few steps behind Green Bay and Cleveland.           

[vu72]

Nothing to do with our opponent's schedule, but still, thought I'd post is anyway!  North Dakota State (Summit League) beats that other team from Northern Indiana tonight, at the home of that other team from Northern Indiana!!  Nice.   

[wh]

Right now he's not one of the 5 best players in the HL, perhaps when you were in the Summit he was but the HL he is not.

Very astute.  Bader is averaging 21+ against Oakland's extremely soft non-league schedule, but once he's facing Horizon League competition, he'll be lucky to score in double figures.

EC, you were doing so well, but now you're starting to lose me. You may recall one of our early season exhibition opponents -Robert Morris College.  They had a guy that really went off that night from 3, hitting an amazing 7-14 attempts.  In fact, he had a great all around game.  And yet we did nothing special to try to shut him down, as we were clearly in control throughout. Do you think Bryce would have allowed that to continue unabated if we were playing someone we were more evenly matched against. Obviously not. Ryan Broekhoff came up against a lot more gimmick defenses in HL play than he ever did against OOC opponents that clearly overmatched us. I think Mr. Bader will find the same thing to be true, especially in the second half of conference play when the other teams know him and Oakland better.  As you know, the HL is a defensive minded league, far more so than the Summit. Teams like CSU, WSU and GB will be doing everything in their power to limit his 3- pt attempts.

Good points, wh.  It probably will be tougher for Bader in the HL when teams are more familiar with him and more focused on slowing him down. 

FWIW, IU is very aware of Bader and how good he is.  It will be interesting to see if they give him special attention tonight, and if so, how he handles it.

I don't know if you read this article http://www.indystar.com/story/hoosier-insider/2013/12/10/hoosiers-concerned-by-oaklands-bader/3954881/ or where you got your information, but you were right on. 

I'm guessing that every HL team will be studying film from this game.

[talksalot]

I said I would periodically post what the "real time Rpi" site thinks will happen for VU ...Kinda interesting...meaningless, but interesting.

12-14         Loyola Marymnt     6-3 (0-0)    177     88-68 W - Scouting   
  12-22     at    UCF     3-3 (0-0)    315     79-78 W - Scouting   
  12-29     at    E. Tennessee St.     4-6 (0-0)    207     84-71 W - Scouting   
  01-02         Illinois-Chicago     2-6 (0-0)    258     86-60 W - Scouting   
  01-04     at    Oakland     1-8 (0-0)    171     83-73 W - Scouting   
  01-10         Wright St.     3-6 (0-0)    298     90-67 W - Scouting   
  01-15     at    Detroit     4-5 (0-0)    94     75-83 L - Scouting   
  01-18         Wisc. Milwaukee     8-2 (0-0)    118     88-68 W - Scouting   
  01-23     at    Youngstown St.     4-4 (0-0)    125     79-78 W - Scouting   
  01-25     at    Cleveland St.     4-5 (0-0)    196     81-75 W - Scouting   
  01-29         Wisc. Green Bay     3-3 (0-0)    45     81-72 W - Scouting   
  02-01     at    Illinois-Chicago     2-6 (0-0)    258     82-74 W - Scouting   
  02-07         Detroit     4-5 (0-0)    94     84-74 W - Scouting   
  02-09         Oakland     1-8 (0-0)    171     86-60 W - Scouting   
  02-15     at    Wisc. Milwaukee     8-2 (0-0)    118     80-77 W - Scouting   
  02-20     at    Wisc. Green Bay     3-3 (0-0)    45     73-80 L - Scouting   
  02-22         Youngstown St.     4-4 (0-0)    125     87-70 W - Scouting   
  02-25     at    Wright St.     3-6 (0-0)    298     81-75 W - Scouting   
  03-01         Cleveland St.     4-5 (0-0)    196     90-67 W - Scouting   
Current Record: 4-5 (0-0)
GAMER Projected Record: 21-7 (14-2)

According to their update as of Noon CT on 12/11/13:

VU    14-2  (perfect at home, Losses at UDM and GBay)
UDM  13-3  (perfect at home, Losses at GBay, YSt and Valpo)
GBay  10-6 ( perfect at home, losses everywhere on the road except UIC and Oakland)
Y.St  7-9
CSU 6-10
Mil 6-10
WSU 6-10
Oak 5-11
UIC 5-11

[valpotx]

Haha, I would love to go 17-2 the rest of the way, but not likely 

[classof2014]

I give us going 17-2 the rest of the way about a 15% chance of occuring.

I would say 14-5 is much more reasonable. I would say anywhere from 9-10 to 17-2 is reasonable to happen. I would love to finish 17-2 but I don't see that happening, reasonably. We'll probably lose a few games against inferior teams on the road.

17-2 would be nice though!

[LaPorteAveApostle]

I give us going 17-2 the rest of the way about a 15% chance of occuring.

RPI Forecast gives it a 2.31% chance, and I believe them because of the 3rd sig. fig.

[vu84v2]

A less than 2.5% likelihood of Valpo going 17-2 the rest of the way would be a statistically significant prediction that Valpo will not get 17 or more wins in its remaining games.  A researcher would publish a finding with similar significance.  However, I question the statistical methods used in the predictions above (beyond the pure common sense problems).

[wh]

How can this have any statistical validity until we are able to solve for the unknown x ( or kc if you prefer)?

[historyman]

I give us going 17-2 the rest of the way about a 15% chance of occuring.

RPI Forecast gives it a 2.31% chance, and I believe them because of the 3rd sig. fig.

THAT is NOT a "seems like" feeling.

[LaPorteAveApostle]

THAT is NOT a "seems like" feeling.

You could say it seems like I don't want to give you an opening.

The percentages seem like made-up, but I have determined that they are the product (in the mathematical sense) of our win probabilities.  Which is why the chances of us going undefeated the rest of the way are currently 0.02%.

E.g., the chances of going undefeated over 3 games in which your win probabilities are 50%, 70%, and 10% would be 3.5%.

[Kyle321n]

UDM  13-3  HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA No. Maybe 3-13

[StlVUFan]

Well Oakland got dismantled by a decent not great Indiana squad in an 81 to 54 loss.

"decent not great" for Indiana translates to "dominant" when I transpose to the key of HL, so I'm really not sure what this statement proves.  If you think Indiana would do less than run the table in convincing fashion in the HL, then this is where I pull out the motto for the State I live in and say, "Show Me".  I'm not buying that.

I'll just say this.  I don't think we can put Travis Bader in the same category Valpo fans used to put Mike Helms in.  I think he's better than that.  OU is probably still going to live and die by Bader 3s, as they lived and died by Kangas 3s and Helms 3s in the past, so there's that.

As for EC, I'm starting to get the reaction of some around here.  His initial comment had to be either clever sarcasm at your expense or a scrambled brain.  There is no in-between.

[crusadermoe]

Oakland leading the Spartans 45 to 43 at the O-Rena with 10 minutes to go.     Happy Kampers?

[Pathfinder]

Oakland leading the Spartans 45 to 43 at the O-Rena with 10 minutes to go.     Happy Kampers?

No.

[justducky]

I took a quick glance at all of the Horizon Leagues remaining non-conference games and was a little surprised. Right now we are significantly behind the MVC and not much ahead of the Colonial and Mid- American but maybe that could change. That wall of can't win games is  behind us and the non-con schedules now show a majority of winable to very winable games. On top of that our Realtime RPI conference strength of schedule rank is now rated at 4th vs the MVC at 13th. So if our teams as a group can play well until January we could at least be right on their tail and maybe better.

So go Horizon League and I retract every nasty comment that any of us have made about Oaklands insane schedule. 

[classof2014]

So go Horizon League and I retract every nasty comment that any of us have made about Oaklands insane schedule. 

Oakland scedule

HL - Plus

OU - Negative (shoulda, coulda, woulda tonight)

I guess you can say Oakland has been the sacrificial lamb this year to help our league strength of schedule.

[wh]

Wright State continues to struggle, losing to a bad Miami-Ohio team (2-5) 59-56.  This was WSU's fourth consecutive loss.  They now have an RPI of 326. 

Of note Chrishawn Hopkins played his first game in a WSU uniform.  He had 4 points, 3 assists and 4 turnovers in 24 minutes. 

[motowntitan]

If everyone above Bader on that list shot as many 3's, there is very strong possibility that Bader would end up on top of that list.

...this is the opposite of logic.

You have promulgated a self-defeating argument:

--You're saying that the reason his percentage is lower is because he takes so many of them (because...why?  does 3FG% have a Law of Diminishing Returns?).
--Implying Bader's percentage would rise if he took fewer of them.
--Therefore, Bader shouldn't shoot so many.  He should stop after 4-5 ATT a game, because he's just going to suck after that.
--So, in the end you agree with 2014 and EddieCabot, et al.:  Bader had bader not shoot so much.

Really, a breathtakingly poor argument.  I would say "stick to sticking up for your own players", but then it occurs to me...as a Detroit fan, there is like a 5% chance you're actually trying to belittle him in this manner.

If so, well done, and sorry I didn't give you more credit for mocking your rival so cleverly.

Sorry, that was not my intent.
My remark was in response to Classof2014's  statement that Bader was one-dimensional (i.e only shooting 3 pointers).  But then he uses only one dimension (3pt %) to argue that Bobby is better than Bader.

So your comment was as follows "-You're saying that the reason his percentage is lower is because he takes so many of them (because...why?  does 3FG% have a Law of Diminishing Returns?)"

It is not diminishing returns, but rather statistical sample size.  Case in point, see the NCAA site:
http://www.ncaa.com/stats/basketball-men/d1/current/individual/143/p1

That site does not have Booby, nor his 55% listed.  Why not?  Because he has not shot the minimum amount of shots that they consider for addition to the list.  They also do the same thing with Free Throws.  Otherwise, the NCAA record books would be loaded with bench players that have shot 100% of their 3 point and/or Free Throws because they may have only made the one shot they took.

So, no, I'm not agreeing with Eddie.  If Bryce thinks Bobby can keep making 3 point shots at 55%, then please have him start chucking up 10 per game.

Here is Wiki's take from the NCAA's record books
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_NCAA_Division_I_men%27s_basketball_career_3-point_scoring_leaders

So, according to Classof2014's logic, Bobby is better than JJ Redick as well, because JJ only made 40% of his shots (like Bader).

Anyway, the Horizon League has bigger problems right now than worrying about All-League players 10 games into the season.

[classof2014]

I never said Bobby is better than Bader. All I am saying Bader is way overrated. He's a good 3-point shooter and that's it. He's one dimensional and the IU game proves that. He had an awful game because not one of his 10 3s fell, or even if 2 fell through he would be 2-10. He shoots 3s, 3s, and more 3s. He averages 11 attempts a game. Connects about 40% of the time. So 12-15 points a game due to 3 pointers, add 4 due to FTs, and two or three two pointers a game and you have 21 points by going 6-17 from the floor. Going 5-13 from 3 point land, 1-4 from 2, and 4-4 from the charity stripe.

He's a good 3 point shooter. Is Bobby as good of a shooter? Hell no. But Bobby isn't one-dimensional he can post-up and scores many of his points under the basket and rebounds well too. Does Bader do that? Nope, just shoots 3s. Never said Bobby was a better shooter because he is not.

[EddieCabot]

So, no, I'm not agreeing with Eddie.  If Bryce thinks Bobby can keep making 3 point shots at 55%, then please have him start chucking up 10 per game.

So you're not agreeing with me either? Darn!     However, I made the same point about Bobby, so I think you are agreeing with me, in an around-about way.   

[chef]

One thing to keep in mind - It's incredibly difficult to be a great three-point shooter, take a lot of attempts each game and still make over 40%. If you consider what Bryce Drew or JJ Redick or Jon Diebler went up against each night, you'd have to be amazed they still made a high percentage. Teams would have their quickest most athletic defender on them, and would switch thru every screen. Bryce would take 8 or 9 three's a game and maybe 1 or 2 were open looks. Bobby is 11/20 from 3 thus far this year. How many have been wide open clean looks? I'd say 17. Thus 85% of his attempts are wide open. Could you imagine what Bryce's % would be or Bader's for that matter if 85% of their attempts were wide open. My guess would be about 65%.