Valpo Opponents' Schedule & Results 2013-14

[EddieCabot]

Amidst all the sarcasm, let's assume that, for some reason, you stop being who you are and the more you shoot, the more your % declines.

One thing to keep in mind - It's incredibly difficult to be a great three-point shooter, take a lot of attempts each game and still make over 40%. If you consider what Bryce Drew or JJ Redick or Jon Diebler went up against each night, you'd have to be amazed they still made a high percentage. Teams would have their quickest most athletic defender on them, and would switch thru every screen. Bryce would take 8 or 9 three's a game and maybe 1 or 2 were open looks. Bobby is 11/20 from 3 thus far this year. How many have been wide open clean looks? I'd say 17. Thus 85% of his attempts are wide open. Could you imagine what Bryce's % would be or Bader's for that matter if 85% of their attempts were wide open. My guess would be about 65%.

You two seem to be in disagreement ... I'll step aside and let the two of you battle this out.

[historyman]

That site does not have Booby, nor his 55% listed.  Why not?

because his name is Bobby!

[LaPorteAveApostle]

You two seem to be in disagreement ... I'll step aside and let the two of you battle this out.

I think the answer is obvious...shot selection.  Being able to choose when to shoot--and when not to--makes you a good player.  In the words of noted basketball analyst Bob Seger "what to leave in, what to leave out".

Bader shoots 36% from the floor, yet everyone thinks he's great.  He's not even in the top 50 in the conference in points per shot (1.09).  He's behind even LVD, who we in kinder moments call a "volume scorer".

The bottom line is you are what your numbers say you are.  If you're really good, a Michael or LeBron, it doesn't matter how many people they drape over you.  If you're not that good, you have to find the open man--which is in itself another skill to be good at.  If it takes you THAT many shots to score that many points, then you're hurting your team.

Is Bobby lucky for taking unguarded 3s?  Or is he just smart for not taking them when it's not a good shot?

Here you go:
http://espn.go.com/blog/truehoop/post/_/id/44191/a-better-option-than-a-superstar

http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/7649571/nba-kobe-bryant-not-money-think-espn-magazine

[chef]

I think for the most part we agree. I don't think you wished Bryce had only taken open 3's in his Valpo career? For what it's worth, Bader is a career 40% three-point shooter. His numbers are slightly down this year, but that's mainly because of the IU game.

[LaPorteAveApostle]

Oh, sure--I'm not advocating only open shots--because until the rule changes this year, there would be approximately 6 shots per game each side!  (Now there are 9.)

I advocate smart shots.  I think we all know in our gut what this is.  When you're at your Y or rec league game, and you get p-y-s-t at some guy for taking shots he shouldn't, you acquiesce to this principle.

Obviously Bader is a good player and good shooter.  But part of BBall IQ is knowing when to shoot.  Everyone else on the floor on his side was also good enough to earn a D1 ride, so it's not like he's on your rec league team (in which case, he'd have green light passim, no pun intended for once).

I look at his numbers and after my stomach turns, I remember things, like Grady Little saying something to the effect that a visibly-dead-tired-from-space Pedro Martinez was still better than any arm he had in his bullpen.  It's the sports equivalent of the "great man theory" in history--that one person accomplishes, and should, everything by himself. 

I think we're smarter than that these days.

[classof2014]

Completely agree. When somebody is closely guarding Bader chances are at least one other player on Oakland is relatively open for a shot. If Bader is 6 of 16 on the day (which is his average) there's 10 misses on the day. Chances are 9 of those misses are taken by the defense, Oakland is dead last in the league in rebounding margin at -10, so chances of an offensive board are slim. So if Bader passes on many of his contested looks and lets say Oakland scores on 40% of those there's an extra 10 or so points a game. Bader would do his team much more good if he were 4 of 9 for 13 points than 6 of 16 for 19 points.

[LaPorteAveApostle]

Bader would do his team much more good if he were 4 of 9 for 13 points than 6 of 16 for 19 points.

True--and a lower usage rate would give him more open looks later--i.e. if the opponents gameplanned for 20 shots and he takes half that, or less, they start to adjust, and then OH YOU GOT PUNCHED
http://www.homestarrunner.com/sbemail51.html

[talksalot]

So the OU Grizzlies come down to earth tonight against a Middlin'-MVC 5-4 Illinois State (#107) team (coming to ORena on a 4-game win streak).

Real Time RPI has ISU winning 79-78; and on Saturday, OU hosts Eastern Michigan (#85).  the site predicts an 80-77 OU victory; and the play a back-to-back weekend at home, with Robert Morris (RPI 221), and the predictor has OI winning 81-77.

I'll be interested to see if that OOC schedule really did them any good as they come down the HL level of play. 

[classof2014]

They did lose 2 very winnable and should win games against St. Francis (RPI 116) who is 5-5, which was at home. They also lost to Western Michigan (208) on the road. Although they beat Ohio, I think we'll know much more about Oakland after these next few games. I'm guess they'll have 10-12 wins come season end. They'll probably win anywhere from 7-9 games in the HL.

[wh]

Oakland beat Illinois State last night 90-75.  They are now 2-3 against mid major competition, having won their last 2 in impressive fashion over Ohio and Illinois State.  Finally, we can start to get a feel for who Oakland really is, and I like what I see right now.   

[talksalot]

I think the next OU game will be a real teller.  That Ypsilanti team formerly known as the Hurons is really good at basketball, unlike before when they were just a big flightless bird... emu.

[justducky]

Detroit with a 22-11 first half lead at Akron. That could be another nice HL win. Its on MAC Sports.

[valpotx]

JINX!  Detroit loses by 19 after being outscored in the second half 58-30!

[wh]

Murray State beat Southern Illinois 73-65 on Tuesday, after which SIU coach Barry Hinson goes into a classic rant:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CQKbLsoCt28#t=35

[vu72]

Murray State beat Southern Illinois 73-65 on Tuesday, after which SIU coach Barry Hinson goes into a classic rant:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CQKbLsoCt28#t=35

Hystrical line..."I've been telling my wife for years that size doesn't matter"!!!!  Wonder if she has any eligibility left!!

[historyman]

Murray State beat Southern Illinois 73-65 on Tuesday, after which SIU coach Barry Hinson goes into a classic rant: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CQKbLsoCt28#t=35

Hystrical line..."I've been telling my wife for years that size doesn't matter"!!!!  Wonder if she has any eligibility left!!

Does anybody remember when Barry Hinson was the coach at Oral Roberts and coached against Valpo? Actually when he was at Missouri State, I believe he coached against Valpo then, also.

[talksalot]

Only one HL team in action tonight.   Eastern Illinois heads to the Nutter Center.   I see Donlon is undefeated at home.

  11-13     at    Georgetown     7-2 (0-0)    86     70-88    L
?  11-16     at    DePaul     7-4 (0-0)    114     72-81    L
  11-22     vs    Houston Baptist     2-8 (0-0)    281     75-59    W
?  11-23     at    South Alabama     3-5 (0-0)    186     70-74    L
  11-27         Alcorn St.     0-7 (0-0)    333     73-55    W
  11-30         Western Carolina     4-7 (0-0)    252     85-77    W
?  12-02     at    Morehead St.     6-5 (0-0)    166     69-74    L
??  12-05     at    N.C. A&T     2-8 (0-0)    304     59-62    L
??  12-07     at    Virginia Military     3-4 (0-0)    219     74-94    L
??  12-15     at    Miami (OH)     2-5 (0-0)    214     56-59    L
  12-19         Eastern Illinois     1-6 (0-0)    299     81-64 W - Scouting   

This may be just what the raiders need.  EIU is horrible, their only win is against UIC.. Western Illinois beat Eastern 60-32 on Dec.4.

RealTimeRPI updated their season projection for the raiders... Wins at home over UIC and Oakland.... final record:  2-14.  Who'd a thunk it?.

[talksalot]

Southeastern Stats after their Milligan game on Wednesday.  The video on their site is Password Protected, and since I don't work at Target, I can't get into their site.

Their stud (#1 Dwayne Johnson) was a DNP ..." With senior point guard Dwayne Johnson shelved with a lower-body injury, Southeastern was put in the unusual position of playing against visiting Milligan College without its senior floor general."

2013-14 Team Rankings
Ranks Number 6 in Division II in Total Rebounds per Game (44.545)
Ranks Number 8 in Division II in Blocks per Game (4.545)
Ranks Number 10 in Division II in Defensive Rebounds per Game (30.091)
Ranks Number 10 in Division II in Offensive Rebounds per Game (14.455)
Ranks Number 12 in Division II in Scoring Offense per Game (91.182)
Ranks Number 14 in Division II in Total Blocks (50)
Ranks Number 27 in Division II in Field Goal Pct (0.487)
Ranks Number 29 in Division II in Total Rebound Margin (5.909)
Ranks Number 37 in Division II in Turnover Margin (1.636)
Ranks Number 40 in Division II in Scoring Margin (9.455)
Ranks Number 41 in Division II in Total Total Rebound Offense (490)
Ranks Number 44 in Division II in Total Scoring Offense (1003)
Ranks Number 48 in Division II in Field Goal Pct Defense (0.434)

2013-14 Individual Rankings
Timothy Mitchell Ranks Number 1 in Division II in Defensive Rebounds per Game (8.727)
Timothy Mitchell Ranks Number 1 in Division II in Total Rebounds per Game (12.909)
Timothy Mitchell Ranks Number 4 in Division II in Blocks per Game (2.455)
Timothy Mitchell Ranks Number 4 in Division II in Total Total Rebounds (142)
Timothy Mitchell Ranks Number 5 in Division II in Total Blocks (27)
Timothy Mitchell Ranks Number 5 in Division II in Offensive Rebounds per Game (4.182)
Dwayne Johnson Ranks Number 17 in Division II in Assists per Game (5.700)
Dwayne Johnson Ranks Number 24 in Division II in Points per Game (21.000)
Timothy Mitchell Ranks Number 24 in Division II in Field Goal Pct (0.587)
Dwayne Johnson Ranks Number 33 in Division II in Total Assists (57)

[talksalot]

According to their update as of Noon CT on 12/11/13:

VU    14-2  (perfect at home, Losses at UDM and GBay)
UDM  13-3  (perfect at home, Losses at GBay, YSt and Valpo)
GBay  10-6 ( perfect at home, losses everywhere on the road except UIC and Oakland)
Y.St  7-9
CSU 6-10
Mil 6-10
WSU 6-10
Oak 5-11
UIC 5-11

OK... here's the 12/19 update... the word parity comes to mind...

1.  VU    11-5 Losses at UDM,YSU,CSU,UWM,GBY
1.  UDM 11-5 Losses at VU, YSU,CSU,UWM,GBY    (tie-breaker ?)
3.  GBY 10-6 Losses at VU,UDM,YSU,CSU,UWM,OAK
4.  UWM 9-7  (Split with YSU and CSU)
4.  YSU 9-7
4.  CSU 9-7
7.  OAK 6-10 All Road Losses; and home losses to VU and UDM
8.  UIC 5-11 All Road Losses; and home losses to VU, UDM and GBY
9.  WSU 2-14 Only wins are home to UIC and OAK

[a3uge]

According to their update as of Noon CT on 12/11/13:

VU    14-2  (perfect at home, Losses at UDM and GBay)
UDM  13-3  (perfect at home, Losses at GBay, YSt and Valpo)
GBay  10-6 ( perfect at home, losses everywhere on the road except UIC and Oakland)
Y.St  7-9
CSU 6-10
Mil 6-10
WSU 6-10
Oak 5-11
UIC 5-11

OK... here's the 12/19 update... the word parity comes to mind...

1.  VU    11-5 Losses at UDM,YSU,CSU,UWM,GBY
1.  UDM 11-5 Losses at VU, YSU,CSU,UWM,GBY    (tie-breaker ?)
3.  GBY 10-6 Losses at VU,UDM,YSU,CSU,UWM,OAK
4.  UWM 9-7  (Split with YSU and CSU)
4.  YSU 9-7
4.  CSU 9-7
7.  OAK 6-10 All Road Losses; and home losses to VU and UDM
8.  UIC 5-11 All Road Losses; and home losses to VU, UDM and GBY
9.  WSU 2-14 Only wins are home to UIC and OAK

Eh, RealtimeRPI has always been run under the assumption that winning on the road is practically impossible, and winning at home is pretty much guaranteed. I would imagine Detroit is going to finish near the bottom, and WSU probably towards the middle. I don't have historical information on this, but if you were to look at this last year, it probably would have had UIC winning the division with Green Bay at the very bottom (ahead of UWM, of course).

RPI Forecast probably does a little better job, as it uses Sagarin's predictions to generate a winner probability, not the GAMER method. After each week is simulated, the predictor is run again, until an entire season is simulated. Then 10,000 seasons are simulated and the RPIs are averaged together. RPI Forecast predicts a 7-9 record for Detroit, which sounds a bit more accurate than RealTimeRPI's projector. The GAMER system, in my opinion, always predicts too many home victories.

Unless it's the last few weeks of the season a team's actual RPI is pretty misleading. Sagarin's ratings are pretty decent, but knowing RPI Forecast uses his predictor makes it easier to trust the expected RPIs.

[vu72]

Current Sagarin rankings:

Green Bay       8
Valpo            100
CSU              110
Mil                147
Oakland         168
YSU              173
Wright St       192
Detroit          195
UIC              253

These are out of 351 total schools in the rankings.  Loyola is 277th !!!

[humbleopinion]

That would be "Green Bay  81"

[wh]

Two huge offensive performances by HL players this afternoon:

- Alec Brown 40 points/8 rebounds:  12-17 FG, 2-2 3pt, 14-15 FT

- Travis Bader 33 points: 10-15 FG, all 3-pt. shots

[LaPorteAveApostle]

Travis Bader 33 points: 10-15 FG, all 3-pt. shots

Credit where credit is due. 

Although since I've rained on his parade before, it's a shame he doesn't have a higher FT rate since he makes over 90% of his FT :/

[historyman]

Illinois beat #23 Missouri by 1 in their "Braggin' rights" game in St Louis tonight. That certainly will help the RPI.