11/8/2013 Friday 7:30 p.m. CST -- Murray State at Valpo -- Game Thread

[bbtds]

I brought over some of the posts from the "Predicting November" thread on Murray State to this game thread.

Not only did they lose a lot of talent, but they also lost their starting point guard and arguably best player. With their recent run, their name carries of weight, but they are in a very similar reloading/rebuilding situation as us. I am excited to see how we match up against a team very similar, but one we should beat at home.

Can't post a link, but here is the quote from a story on ESPN. "Murray State point guard Zay Jackson, who was expected to be the Racers top player this season, is out for the year after suffering a knee injury in practice on Saturday."

That being said we should win all our games at home, but I predict loses to Illinois, Ohio, and then against any random team just because we are not on our game.

Here's what Murray State has


NEWCOMERS

Cameron Payne
6-2 freshman guard
Luasanne Collegiate School Memphis, TN
Mr. Basketball in Tennessee
HS team won 2A Tenn State Championship
20 points per game
10 assists per game

Jonathon Fairell
6-7 junior forward
River State College Ft Pierce, FL
17.7 points per game
11.8 rebounds per game

Jarvis Williams
6-8 junior forward
Gordon State College Barnesville, GA
19 points per game
10 rebounds per game
HS team won State Championship in GA

Jeff Martin
5-11 freshman guard
Seven Lakes HS Katy, TX
13 points per game
5 assists and 3 steals per game

T.J. Sapp (won't play against Valpo)
6-3 junior guard
transfer from Clemson but just like Keith Carter
won't play until 2nd semester


RETURNING:

Dexter Fields
6-2 senior guard
transfer from UAB two years ago
scored 12 against Valpo
had 8 double digit scoring games
6.5 points per game

Jeffery Moss
6-4 sophomore forward
21.4 minutes per game
4 double digit scoring games
4.4 points per game

There are other returnees but none with significant minutes.

The loss of Zay Jackson is really going to hurt them. He red-shirted last year and looked to have a lot of talent.

http://www.midmajormadness.com/ohio-valley-conference/2013/10/7/4814030/murray-state-guard-zay-jackson-tears-acl-out-for-season

Quote (selected)
With a tough schedule, and little in the way of experience, the Racers outlook wasn't great with a fully healthy Jackson, with most, including us (Foreshadowing!), picking the Racers in the middle of the OVC West Division. Now, the Racers have an even steeper climb to stay with the top of the conference, and possibly even to keep their impressive streak of 26-straight winning seasons intact.

If ever there was a time for a loud, student led, ARC crowd it's against this newbie Racers team.

I think we should be able to handle Murray State. I think they're in a similar boat as we are, a lot of unknowns and their first game being on the road and especially losing their PG for the season will definitely hurt them quite a bit.

I just looked and they lost quite a bit from last season. In that game they only had 17 points coming from players who are on this roster as well and 12 of them from one player (Dexter Fields). While we return 25 points of scoring from that game. I know we lost a lot of talent but I think they lost more than we did and now without them having a starting PG, I think it makes a Valpo win that much more likely on opening night.

Not gonna guarantee a win, especially with a boatload of newcomers on the team but I give us at least a 75% chance of winning this game.

http://murrayledger.com/sports/murray_state/msu-tabbed-as-co-favorite/article_5b819626-3ba0-11e3-9447-0019bb2963f4.html

"Jeffery Moss and Dexter Fields are our only two returners, so it's not a surprise," Prohm said. "Our best player returning (Zay Jackson) didn't play last year, and now he's not playing again this year (out for the season with a torn ACL). We were picked first in our division (by the OVC coaches),

And even with depleted numbers entering the season (the Racers will open the year with just nine scholarship players) Prohm said the expectations in Racer Country are the same.

"Our goal never changes," he said. "You win as many conference games as you can, win your side of the league and win a double-bye in Nashville in the OVC Tournament. Once you are there, you're expected to win, and that will be what we work for everyday and push toward.

"Our goal is not going to change, because it can't change."

The Racers will open the season at Valparaiso Friday, Nov. 8 at 7:30 p.m.

We have to remember that the OVC as a conference is a decent amount worse than the HL, and especially the division Murray State is in.  I believe just about everyone in their division had a 200+ RPI last year.

Edit: Confirmed - http://warrennolan.com/basketball/2013/conference/Ohio%20Valley

Well, if we renew our series with Murray State after this year, Zay Jackson won't be in a Racer uniform:

http://ovcball.net/2013/10/zay-jackson-to-transfer/

[bbtds]

Last night Murray State beat Freed Hardeman 95-68 in their only exhibition game. Freed Hardeman had previously lost to Lipscomb 95-83 in an exhibition game on Halloween night.

Freed Hardeman is an NAIA school in the TSAC (TranSouth Athletic Conference). FHU finished 14-19, 3-7 in their conference in 2012-13. The Lions were 5th place in a 6 team conference. 

FYI: The Freed Hardeman campus was a location where many scenes from the "Walking Tall" movies were shot in 1973 in Henderson,
TN.


http://www.goracers.com/news/2013/11/2/MBB_1102134017.aspx

The Murray State Racers used a 53-28 second half to score a 95-68 win over Freed-Hardeman in exhibition play Saturday at the CFSB Center in Murray, Ky.

Jarvis Williams led the way with a double-double of 19 points and 11 rebounds, while the Racers got 18 points from Jeffery Moss, 14 from Dexter Fields and 11 from Terron Gilmore.

Leading 42-40 at the half, the Racers pushed to a nine-point lead at the 18:15 mark when Williams fed Moss for a three. MSU was again up by nine (55-46) when Williams scored in the paint with 14:25 left.

Payne had a game-high eight assists and Williams made three steals.

In the first half, the Racers enjoyed their largest lead of six on seven occasions. Moss scored on a tip-in for a 30-24 lead at 7:03 and later the Racers led again by six at 36-30 when Jonathan Fairell put back his own miss at the 4:18 mark. The lead was 40-34 with 2:11 left when C.J. Ford led a fast break and found Fields for a three-pointer.

Murray State starts its 88th season of collegiate basketball Friday when they travel to Valparaiso, Ind., for the season opener with the Valparaiso Crusaders. Tip-off is set for 7:30 p.m. (Nov. 8) at the Athletics Recreation Center.

The Racers freshman phenom, Cameron Payne, Mr. Basketball in Tennessee from Memphis, only scored 9 points but did have the game high 8 assists.

Terron Gilmore, who is a 6-7 sophomore forward and averaged 8 minutes per game last season, scored 11 in the FHU game.

FYI: MSU's athletics website has added a link to the HLN broadcast so I would assume a large portion of their fans will be watching the Valpo broadcast of the game.

[valpotx]

Valpo 73
Murray State 66

[bbtds]

Murray State  69
Valpo            81

With the way Valpo got up and down the court with Robert Morris I expect a lot of the same without the 38 points from one of MSU's shooters.

[classof2014]

72 to 61 Valpo. They'll lead start to finish and it should be a comfortable win.

[a3uge]

Murray St 75 Valpo 61. Me of little faith.

[VULB#62]

From afar and not having seen either exhibition, the questions that quickly came to mind were: against two lesser programs why were both scores so close; why was RMU allowed to be even within 1 point in the last portion of the second half; how could a D-I team allow a single NAIA player to drop 38 on them without assigning someone to shut him down?  Our guys have been playing together since last season, over the summer, and prior to the official opening of the 2013-14 practice season.  These games should have been fine-tuning efforts not so much experiments.  These thoughts push me in the direction of greater caution.  While the future will be bright, and I think the team will be one that no one wants to play the end of the season, right now I see a loss against Murray State.  Can't predict the score, but it will be a respectable loss (maybe 6-8 points).

[Smj]

I was at both games.  Bryce really was testing different line ups in the exhibition games.   I think this team has great promise but we might struggle from time to time this season.  As for Murray State - I think it will be a close game with us losing in the end.   (Hopefully a learning experience.)

As for the 38 points....  That kid was on fire - making shots where I thought he was well guarded.  If he plays like that all season he should be on a division I team.

[classof2014]

I don't see how we lose this game. Murray State is in the same boat we are, they lost about all they had last season and now they took a huge blow in losing their most promising player who was their PG no less which is the most important position on the court. The ARC is not an easy environment for road teams to play in, and with them being so young I see them losing to us. If MSU had Isaiah Canaan and Ed Daniel and whoever else was on that team they'd probably win. But they're lineup has a bunch of newcomers, like us and with them playing on the road in a hostile environment I don't see them winning.

As for the 2 exhibition games, was at them both. They finished the Hillsdale game really well. The first half was more jitters than anything. If they would've played the first half like they did the second it would have been a blowout. As for the RMU game, McKinney was on fire, I thought many times he was guarded and a hand was in his face, etc... Take him out of that game it would've been an 80 to 50 shellacking. Also many of the freshmen weren't making the stupid freshmen mistakes and Williams, Peters, and Yeo showed they can shoot lights out and will be a big part of this team. As for Coleman and Dority both looked much better and more under control.

Obviously we'll know much more about this come 9:30 on Friday night. Overall though, with MSU being in a similar position as us I don't see how they win their first regular season game on the road, in a tough environment.

[LaPorteAveApostle]

Murray St 75 Valpo 61. Me of little faith.

WHO are you and WHAT have you done with the guy I always agreed with?

Have you looked at their roster and outlook this year?

Don't be like one of those guys that fills out their bracket based on name rep.

[FWalum]

If playing a close game or heaven forbid losing an exhibition tilt is a harbinger of doom for the regular season then the WSU Raiders must now be considered preseason conference PRETENDERS.

[a3uge]

Murray St 75 Valpo 61. Me of little faith.

WHO are you and WHAT have you done with the guy I always agreed with?

Have you looked at their roster and outlook this year?

Don't be like one of those guys that fills out their bracket based on name rep.

As big of a college basketball fan I like to think I am, I don't fill out  brackets because I like to root for mid majors.

Anyways, my lack of faith comes from Valpo, not Murray State. I just don't think Valpo is there yet. Maybe mid season with Carter coming in things will be different. I feel we are  incredibly thin down low and don't have the shooters to make up for it. You can't just replace KVW with a couple of tall guys and expect the same result. His knack for scoring by the basket was a huge part of the offense last year, and even with a healthy Capo, I think Valpo could struggle offensively down low. If these freshmen can shoot well, I think we'll be fine, but if Gueye and Vashil can't dominate against non D1 teams that play  6'7 forwards instead of a center most the game.... just don't see them winning some tough games early on. Murray State is still a decent team and should be 1 or 2 in the OVC (admittedly isn't saying much). I guess I might be overestimating Murray State, whom has a bunch of production loss as well, but it looks like they have some pretty good JUCO players coming in, as well as a 3 star freshman guard to attempt the daunting task of replacing Canaan.

[wh]

Is anyone aware of anything special being done in NWI to promote this game?  We have a prominent mid-major coming to our house. We're raising the championship banners.  Yet, I haven't seen or heard a thing about it anywhere.  We should have a near full house for this, but I have a bad feeling it won't be anywhere close.  It's the casual fans I'm thinking about that we should be (and hopefully are) trying to reach.

[78crusader]

We will lose a close game to Murray State.  Our weakness is the center position.  Playing either Gueye or Vashil is like playing 4 on 5 while on offense.  They cannot catch the basketball, simple as that. 

Paul

[a3uge]

If playing a close game or heaven forbid losing an exhibition tilt is a harbinger of doom for the regular season then the WSU Raiders must now be considered preseason conference PRETENDERS.

Wright State will be a little bit better than last year. Which wasn't very good. Their RPI was 129 and their only top 100 RPI win was Detroit (which was a matchup problem for Detroit). Had they beaten Valpo, they would've still ended with a +100 RPI, which would have netted them a 15 seed (barring a ridiculous geography-based move). If they make the tournament this year, they'll probably be a 15 seed. While they are blaming the loss on injuries, it's not like injuries don't happen mid-season. I do think Wright State will be a 20 win team, but their OOC schedule is so horrendous that I don't think they'll break an RPI of 100. Are they conference pretenders? Maybe not. The whole league is so down that they're still one of the most likely teams to win the Horizon.

[classof2014]

Let us not forget even though Gueye and Vashil are not great offensively they both are really good defenders. So everything kinda evens out, KVW was the best big man in the league, that's gonna be hard to replace. Gueye and Vashil are better defenders than KVW, in my opinion. So it's a trade-off. This is a different look team, I think our guards will be the focal point of the offense instead of the forwards. Last year it was the opposite our scoring came from the 4 and 5 position, this season it'll have to be the 1, 2, & 3.

Both Coleman and Dority look much more consistent in the two games this year and Peters can shoot lights out and a healthy Capo can score pretty well as well. Don't know if he's gonna be a 100% for the MSU game but if he is there's our decent production from the 4. Like I said before the scoring is gonna be more guard oriented this year than forward oriented last year.

I'm not at all worried about our ability to score. Let us not forget if need be Bobby can play the 5.

[justducky]

I'm not at all worried about our ability to score. Let us not forget if need be Bobby can play the 5.

It just occured to me that this years late game-protect the ball -go small- Bobby at the 5 lineup, might be as big or slightly bigger than last years go big, Ryan at the 3 look. I don't know how this might count in the win and loss column but I love having all of these big bodies.

[historyman]

It's evident to see that those posters who have seen this reloading Valpo team play are the believers and those who didn't see the team play some very very good lower division teams in Hillsdale (who took Toledo to OT before losing by 1) and Robert Morris, who has a very hot guard in Keshaune McKinney that put up 38 points, are the doubters.

Where this Valpo team has weaknesses other teams may not have the strengths to take advantage of those weaknesses. We are not too sure of where Murray State stands because, like Valpo, the Racers are rebuilding/reloading. On the other hand where Valpo has strengths I don't see many other Div. I teams, except maybe Illinois or possibly Ohio and Saint Louis having strengths that can overcome Valpo's strengths. On the offensive end Valpo is going to be better than almost all of it's opponents. In the shot blocking department there will be very few teams better than Valpo. I don't remember how many times the crowd was gasping with excitement when Vashil or Moussa swatted away a shot under the basket. In the area of quickness to the basket by Williams, Dority, Coleman, Yeo, Peters and Carter, when he is available, Valpo will be one of the quickest teams in the Horizon League. In the area of rebounding Valpo will be solid with Adekoya, Chadwick, Peters, Fernandez, Coleman, Yeo and Gueye. To be honest Valpo has the potential, this season, to win 20 plus games.

I do realize there will be disappointments with this team. There will be nights when they don't play well as a team and we as fans will be frustrated because Valpo will lose to a team they could have beaten. I'm hoping those games will be few and far between.

[vu72]

Is anyone aware of anything special being done in NWI to promote this game?  We have a prominent mid-major coming to our house. We're raising the championship banners.  Yet, I haven't seen or heard a thing about it anywhere.  We should have a near full house for this, but I have a bad feeling it won't be anywhere close.  It's the casual fans I'm thinking about that we should be (and hopefully are) trying to reach.

Well, I don't think I would call it "special", but did notice this on facebook:

https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=584644454924609&set=a.310843392304718.92238.113914928664233&type=1&theater

[covufan]

Valpo  -  71
Murray -  63

[justducky]

I'm not at all worried about our ability to score. Let us not forget if need be Bobby can play the 5.

It just occured to me that this years late game-protect the ball -go small- Bobby at the 5 lineup, might be as big or slightly bigger than last years go big, Ryan at the 3 look. I don't know how this might count in the win and loss column but I love having all of these big bodies.

Some other advantages that we will have this year over last are-
1  Because of Erik and Kevin it was common for us to have only 3 3-point shooters on the floor at the same time. This year we should always have 4 and to the extent that Capo and Chadwick can handle the center position (late game deficit) maybe put 5 guys on the floor who can shoot the 3. ( Makes me wonder what our team season 3 point shooting % will be.)
2 Also because of Erik being gone and us always having 4 3-point shooters on the court maybe the inside game opens up enough that even Vashil and Moussa can handle their open looks. (How much better would Kevin have been if Erik had needed to be closely guarded?)
3 I've already forgotten my 3'rd advantage so I'll just skip to the 4'th. 
4 This block vs charge rule change looks to me to be a big advantage for us over the majority of our opponents and we should put a lot of work into learning how to best defend it and exploit it. I wouldn't be much surprised if this alone hands us a couple extra victories.

You folks talked me into this so I'll venture 76-75 for VU, with the rest of November being just as interesting.

[valpopal]

Is anyone aware of anything special being done in NWI to promote this game?  We have a prominent mid-major coming to our house. We're raising the championship banners.  Yet, I haven't seen or heard a thing about it anywhere.  We should have a near full house for this, but I have a bad feeling it won't be anywhere close.  It's the casual fans I'm thinking about that we should be (and hopefully are) trying to reach.

There are some promotions with local businesses and media. In addition, Valpo has an electronic billboard on US 30 near I-65 that is being used to promote basketball games this year. Last week it featured Alec Peters and this week it will feature Clay Yeo. Here is an example:



Since we have freshmen, like Clay, from the region making their debut in a regular season game, we should see if that helps draw fans from nearby communities. In addition, there should be a big student turnout, especially because banners will be raised before the game, as you mention, and the championship basketball, baseball, golf, and softball teams will all be honored and receive rings at halftime. Plus, the football season is over for Valpo High School and others, so there will not be competition for the crowd from their usual Friday night games. In the exhibition games, the ValparaiZone support has been very good and the band has been better than in recent years. I'm hopeful for a fairly fine turnout. We'll see.

[classof2014]

Will be real nice to see some of the faces from last year in the ARC on Friday night. Highly doubt KVW and Rowdy will be there cause they're in Europe but I will imagine the rest of the team be there and will get quite the ovation from the crowd.

[historyman]

2 Also because of Erik being gone and us always having 4 3-point shooters on the court maybe the inside game opens up enough that even Vashil and Moussa can handle their open looks.

You're asking for way too much here. Moussa and Vashil have to catch the passes into them and not fumble the ball away while making a move. Right now that doesn't seem likely. The best offensive move by Gueye may be throwing the ball towards the basket and crashing for the rebound and slamming the ball home. He did that twice in the Robert Morris game on his own shots.

[Clearthetrack]

Hello Valpo fans looking forward to the start of basketball season.  I will be making the trip up from Murray.  I have a quick question.  Should I go ahead and buy my ticket in advance?  This is my first trip to Valporaiso and was just curious if this game is in jeopardy of a sell out.  Thank you and good luck on the season.