Over-Under, 2014

[LaPorteAveApostle]

Submit your answers below.  Closest to the pin will get, I don't know, a special prize, like one of my extra "Valpo Loves Bryce!" posters the Post-Trib made in 1994.

No submission or editing after tipoff Friday

OVER or UNDER?

1)  Keith Carter:  5.0 apg

2)  Jordan Coleman:  9.5 ppg

3)  LaVonte Dority:  80% FTs

4)  Bobby Capobianco:  75 3PT att

5)  Moussa Gueye:  2.0 bpg

6)  Clay Yeo:  20 mpg

7)  Vashil Fernandez:  6.5 rpg

8)  Lexus Williams:  0.8 spg

9)  Nick Davidson:  redshirt?  yes or no

10)  Jubril Adekoya:  22 games played

11)  Alec Peters:  45% FG%

12)  David Chadwick:  35% 3FG%

13)  Team:  20 wins

14)  Tie-breaker--team points per game, to 3 sig figs

[Kyle321n]

1)  Keith Carter:  5.0 apg	Over
2)  Jordan Coleman:  9.5 ppg	Over
3)  LaVonte Dority:  80% FTs	Under
4)  Bobby Capobianco:  75 3PT att	Under
5)  Moussa Gueye:  2.0 bpg	Over
6)  Clay Yeo:  20 mpg	Over
7)  Vashil Fernandez:  6.5 rpg	Under
8)  Lexus Williams:  0.8 spg	Under
9)  Nick Davidson:  redshirt?  yes or no	Yes
10)  Jubril Adekoya:  22 games played	Over
11)  Alec Peters:  45% FG%	Under
12)  David Chadwick:  35% 3FG%	Under
13)  Team:  20 wins	Over
14)  Tie-breaker--team points per game, to 3 sig figs	69.8

[chef]

LAA...great list...love this stuff. Although please adjust #4. 75 3-pt attempts for Bobby. That's just goofy. 50 even seems high, but much more realistic.

[vu72]

1)  Keith Carter:  5.0 apg                  Over
2)  Jordan Coleman:  9.5 ppg             Under

3)  LaVonte Dority:  80% FTs             Over

4)  Bobby Capobianco:  75 3PT att      Under

5)  Moussa Gueye:  2.0 bpg                Over

6)  Clay Yeo:  20 mpg                         Under

7)  Vashil Fernandez:  6.5 rpg               Under

8)  Lexus Williams:  0.8 spg                  Over

9)  Nick Davidson:  redshirt?  yes or no    Yes

10)  Jubril Adekoya:  22 games played      Under

11)  Alec Peters:  45% FG%                   Over

12)  David Chadwick:  35% 3FG%            Under

13)  Team:  20 wins                              Over

14)  Tie-breaker--team points per game      69.2

[vu72]

1)  Keith Carter:  5.0 apg                  Over
2)  Jordan Coleman:  9.5 ppg             Under

3)  LaVonte Dority:  80% FTs             Over

4)  Bobby Capobianco:  75 3PT att      Under

5)  Moussa Gueye:  2.0 bpg                Over

6)  Clay Yeo:  20 mpg                         Under

7)  Vashil Fernandez:  6.5 rpg               Under

8)  Lexus Williams:  0.8 spg                  Over

9)  Nick Davidson:  redshirt?  yes or no      Yes

10)  Jubril Adekoya:  22 games played      Under

11)  Alec Peters:  45% FG%                   Over

12)  David Chadwick:  35% 3FG%            Under

13)  Team:  20 wins                              Over

14)  Tie-breaker--team points per game      69.2

[classof2014]

1)  Keith Carter:  5.0 apg                                         OVER

2)  Jordan Coleman:  9.5 ppg                                    OVER

3)  LaVonte Dority:  80% FTs                                   OVER

4)  Bobby Capobianco:  75 3PT att                            UNDER

5)  Moussa Gueye:  2.0 bpg                                      OVER

6)  Clay Yeo:  20 mpg                                              UNDER

7)  Vashil Fernandez:  6.5 rpg                                    UNDER

8)  Lexus Williams:  0.8 spg                                       UNDER

9)  Nick Davidson:  redshirt?  yes or no                        YES

10)  Jubril Adekoya:  22 games played                         UNDER

11)  Alec Peters:  45% FG%                                      UNDER

12)  David Chadwick:  35% 3FG%                               OVER

13)  Team:  20 wins                                                 OVER

14)  Tie-breaker--team points per game, to 3 sig figs     72.3

[covufan]

OVER or UNDER?

1)  Keith Carter:  5.0 apg                              Under
2)  Jordan Coleman:  9.5 ppg                         Under (but not by much)
3)  LaVonte Dority:  80% FTs                         Over
4)  Bobby Capobianco:  75 3PT att                  Way Under
5)  Moussa Gueye:  2.0 bpg                            Over
6)  Clay Yeo:  20 mpg                                   Under
7)  Vashil Fernandez:  6.5 rpg                         Under
8)  Lexus Williams:  0.8 spg                            Under
9)  Nick Davidson:  redshirt?  yes or no             Yes
10)  Jubril Adekoya:  22 games played              Over
11)  Alec Peters:  45% FG%                            Over
12)  David Chadwick:  35% 3FG%                    Over
13)  Team:  20 wins                                      Over
14)  Tie-breaker--team points per game, to 3 sig figs     72.4

[LaPorteAveApostle]

LAA...great list...love this stuff. Although please adjust #4. 75 3-pt attempts for Bobby. That's just goofy. 50 even seems high, but much more realistic.

Yeah, I don't know why I ratcheted it up from 50 (to 70 and finally to 75), but I guess I figured he'd be playing twice as many minutes, and maybe taking twice as many threes, and he took 17 last year, which, up a factor of four...

...wait a second, why am I giving my thought process away?  Cheffers, you'd know better than I for sure; however 75 is pretty much just 2 a game.  I guess we'll have to see whether the talk is talk or walk.

[valpotx]

1)  Keith Carter:  5.0 apg   Just under

2)  Jordan Coleman:  9.5 ppg   Over

3)  LaVonte Dority:  80% FTs   Under

4)  Bobby Capobianco:  50 3PT att   Under

5)  Moussa Gueye:  2.0 bpg   Just under

6)  Clay Yeo:  20 mpg   Just under

7)  Vashil Fernandez:  6.5 rpg   Under

8)  Lexus Williams:  0.8 spg   Over

9)  Nick Davidson:  redshirt?  yes or no   Hopefully so

10)  Jubril Adekoya:  22 games played   Over

11)  Alec Peters:  45% FG%   Over

12)  David Chadwick:  35% 3FG%   Just under

13)  Team:  20 wins   Barely over

14)  Tie-breaker--team points per game, to 3 sig figs   67.4

[bbtds]

1)  Keith Carter:  5.0 apg  over

2)  Jordan Coleman:  9.5 ppg  under

3)  LaVonte Dority:  80% FTs  under Why would LaVonte improve this much? He was 2 for 4 against Robert Morris.

4)  Bobby Capobianco:  75 3PT att  under

5)  Moussa Gueye:  2.0 bpg  over

6)  Clay Yeo:  20 mpg  over

7)  Vashil Fernandez:  6.5 rpg  under

8)  Lexus Williams:  0.8 spg  over

9)  Nick Davidson:  redshirt?  yes or no  yes

10)  Jubril Adekoya:  22 games played  under

11)  Alec Peters:  45% FG%  over

12)  David Chadwick:  35% 3FG%  under

13)  Team:  20 wins  over

14)  Tie-breaker--team points per game, to 3 sig figs  69.9

[valpo84]

1)  Keith Carter:  5.0 apg  UNDER

2)  Jordan Coleman:  9.5 ppg OVER

3)  LaVonte Dority:  80% FTs UNDER

4)  Bobby Capobianco:  75 3PT att UNDER

5)  Moussa Gueye:  2.0 bpg OVER

6)  Clay Yeo:  20 mpg OVER

7)  Vashil Fernandez:  6.5 rpg UNDER

8)  Lexus Williams:  0.8 spg OVER

9)  Nick Davidson:  redshirt?  yes or no YES

10)  Jubril Adekoya:  22 games played OVER

11)  Alec Peters:  45% FG% UNDER

12)  David Chadwick:  35% 3FG% AT or SLIGHTLY OVER

13)  Team:  20 wins OVER

14)  Tie-breaker--team points per game, to 3 sig figs 71.2

[vusupporter]

Why would LaVonte improve this much? He was 2 for 4 against Robert Morris.

Sample size of 4 < last year's sample size of 75 (62-of-75, 82.7%)

[a3uge]

1)  Keith Carter:  5.0 apg UNDER
Not a single player in the Horizon had over 5 assists per game. Even McCallum had 4.46, and he never came out of the game.

2)  Jordan Coleman:  9.5 ppg UNDER
I expect him to have as many ppg as Bogan did last year. That ended up being 6.35.

3)  LaVonte Dority:  80% FTs OVER
He was 83% last year and 10-10 at USF.

4)  Bobby Capobianco:  75 3PT att UNDER
This is more than Boggs and Dority attempted last year. But I do think it could be pretty high given the playing time he's going to get.

5)  Moussa Gueye:  2.0 bpg UNDER
Valpo didn't have a single guy over 1 bpg, only 56 players in entire NCAA had over 2 bpg. Eargle the only player in Horizon last year. Not even 7'1" Brown did it. Considering Gueye may split time with Vashil and be off the court when Valpo goes small (Capo in), I don't even know if he'll average more than 1 block per game. Just harder to average over 2 than you think it is.

6)  Clay Yeo:  20 mpg UNDER
This is a toss up and I keep changing my mind. Clay might be the first one off the bench and he'll get a lot more playing time with Carter gone. I think Dority will fill more of a SG role when Carter is eligible which will cut Yeo's minutes in half. I think the team will share a lot of minutes early in the year before finding a consistent lineup. But who knows, maybe Coleman struggles so much that he is starting by the end of the year.

7)  Vashil Fernandez:  6.5 rpg WAY UNDER
Broekhoff didn't even have that many and he lead the league in RPG. Vashil isn't even a starter.

8)  Lexus Williams:  0.8 spg UNDER
Backup point guard who might be 3rd point guard in limited minutes by the end of the year... Dority had .7 last year as a comparison.

9)  Nick Davidson:  redshirt?  yes or no YES
Considering he only had a couple of minutes in non D1 games, I hope so. Unless he doesn't really expect to get any minutes later in his Valpo career either.

10)  Jubril Adekoya:  22 games played OVER
Even Vashil played in 27 games last year. Bryce likes to use his bench, even if it's for brief minutes.

11)  Alec Peters:  45% FG% UNDER
Broekhoff shot 44.8% and I see Peters taking a lot of 3s, which will drive his average down. This should be close though.

12)  David Chadwick:  35% 3FG% UNDER
This is kind of a weird stat, since he'll take around 10 all year (hopefully that's it). Career is 22.2%. I don't know how much PT Chadwick is actually going to get, but the low sample size could cause this to go either way.

13)  Team:  20 wins UNDER
Does this include the 4 non D1 games? The OOC schedule is pretty tough, but the conference is bad enough where Valpo could finish with 10 or 11 wins. I'm expecting a .500 season.

14)  Tie-breaker--team points per game, to 3 sig figs 69.0010098583

[Dave_2010]

1)  Keith Carter:  5.0 apg  OVER

2)  Jordan Coleman:  9.5 ppg  UNDER

3)  LaVonte Dority:  80% FTs  UNDER

4)  Bobby Capobianco:  75 3PT att  UNDER

5)  Moussa Gueye:  2.0 bpg  OVER

6)  Clay Yeo:  20 mpg  OVER

7)  Vashil Fernandez:  6.5 rpg  UNDER

8)  Lexus Williams:  0.8 spg  OVER

9)  Nick Davidson:  redshirt?  yes or no  YES

10)  Jubril Adekoya:  22 games played  UNDER

11)  Alec Peters:  45% FG%  UNDER

12)  David Chadwick:  35% 3FG%  OVER

13)  Team:  20 wins  OVER (Looking at the schedule, I count 9-6 OOC + 11-5 HL for 20-11 total...I'll be optimistic and hope they steal one somewhere)

14)  Tie-breaker--team points per game, to 3 sig figs  71.8

[historyman]

1)  Keith Carter:  5.0 apg                   UNDER

2)  Jordan Coleman:  9.5 ppg              UNDER

3)  LaVonte Dority:  80% FTs              UNDER

4)  Bobby Capobianco:  75 3PT att       OVER

5)  Moussa Gueye:  2.0 bpg                UNDER

6)  Clay Yeo:  20 mpg                        UNDER

7)  Vashil Fernandez:  6.5 rpg              UNDER

8)  Lexus Williams:  0.8 spg                 UNDER

9)  Nick Davidson:  redshirt?  yes or no  NO, I believe he wants to play now

10)  Jubril Adekoya:  22 games played    UNDER

11)  Alec Peters:  45% FG%                 UNDER

12)  David Chadwick:  35% 3FG%          UNDER

13)  Team:  20 wins                            OVER

14)  Tie-breaker--team points per game, to 3 sig figs        66.4312

[LaPorteAveApostle]

Since we're now disagreeing on everything:

Not a single player in the Horizon had over 5 assists per game. Even McCallum had 4.46, and he never came out of the game.

Duke Mondy, Oakland, 5.1 (not in the HL last year, but this one).  And can we really say that McCallum was looking to pass first?

This is more than Boggs and Dority attempted last year.

true...but Dority attempted 74...so...pret-ty close.  it is a little high.  i think i just did it to tease the #No3sBobby crowd.

Broekhoff didn't even have that many and he lead the league in RPG. Vashil isn't even a starter.

nothing about your first sentence is accurate.  Broekhoff averaged 7.3, and he didn't lead the league.  Seven others did 6.5 or better.

I don't even know if he'll average more than 1 block per game.

since he did 1.4 last year...in the SEC...in just 15 minutes a game...I think he'll be ok.  Of course it will be close.  1.4 in 15.4 is 2 bpg in 22 mpg.  Which sounds about right.

As I pointed out earlier, it'll be interesting simply because 2 bpg for 34 games would make him the single-season leader (Grafs' soph with 67) AND 2 bpg for 36 games would put him in the top 10...for career.

[a3uge]

Since we're now disagreeing on everything:

Not a single player in the Horizon had over 5 assists per game. Even McCallum had 4.46, and he never came out of the game.

Duke Mondy, Oakland, 5.1 (not in the HL last year, but this one).  And can we really say that McCallum was looking to pass first?

This is more than Boggs and Dority attempted last year.

true...but Dority attempted 74...so...pret-ty close.  it is a little high.  i think i just did it to tease the #No3sBobby crowd.

Broekhoff didn't even have that many and he lead the league in RPG. Vashil isn't even a starter.

nothing about your first sentence is accurate.  Broekhoff averaged 7.3, and he didn't lead the league.  Seven others did 6.5 or better.

I don't even know if he'll average more than 1 block per game.

since he did 1.4 last year...in the SEC...in just 15 minutes a game...I think he'll be ok.  Of course it will be close.  1.4 in 15.4 is 2 bpg in 22 mpg.  Which sounds about right.

As I pointed out earlier, it'll be interesting simply because 2 bpg for 34 games would make him the single-season leader (Grafs' soph with 67) AND 2 bpg for 36 games would put him in the top 10...for career.

You're right about rebounding one - I must have been looking at defensive rebounds per game (http://statsheet.com/mcb/players/stats/rebounds_avg?season=2012-2013&conf=horizon). Still, I don't think Vashil will have over 6.5 because of minutes, position, and ability.

I stand by assists... McCallum was 2nd in league with 4.455. Buggs was 8th in the league at 3.676. Oakland shoots every 3 seconds so higher totals make sense. Valpo doesn't run this offense.

The Capo 3's one... It's not as off as people seem to be making it out to be. Cory Johnson (inexplicably) shot 86 in the 2010-2011 season.

Gueye having 1.4 blocks per game in limited minutes is impressive. Not sure how many mpg he'll get (guessing around 19 or 20), but 2 bpg is still quite a bit.

[LaPorteAveApostle]

Phew!  I'm glad we're friends again.

Now let's get back to agreeing on everything.

[a3uge]

Phew!  I'm glad we're friends again.

Now let's get back to agreeing on everything.

Hopefully I'm wrong on all of these. I'd rather look foolish than have to go back and say "I TOLD YOU SO" on everything.

[covufan]

I stand by assists... McCallum was 2nd in league with 4.455. Buggs was 8th in the league at 3.676. Oakland shoots every 3 seconds so higher totals make sense. Valpo doesn't run this offense.

The Capo 3's one... It's not as off as people seem to be making it out to be. Cory Johnson (inexplicably) shot 86 in the 2010-2011 season.

Gueye having 1.4 blocks per game in limited minutes is impressive. Not sure how many mpg he'll get (guessing around 19 or 20), but 2 bpg is still quite a bit.

I agree with assists - getting 5 apg is not an easy thing in college basketball, especially for a non-running team that has many guards.  If I was expecting Carter to get 30 min/game, and the ball went through him every possession, I might go over.

If Capo can show that he can hit the three, he has a chance to get to that number of attempts.  I don't see it based on his numbers from last year.  Would love to see him setting high picks near the FT line, then step out to hit the 3!

For Gueye, I'm hoping that his SEC and defensive experience might surprise a few teams in the first half of the season, getting him opportunities to get to (and over) the 2.0 bpg. 

[swiftmutiny]

1)  Keith Carter:  5.0 apg	Under
2)  Jordan Coleman:  9.5 ppg	Over
3)  LaVonte Dority:  80% FTs	Over
4)  Bobby Capobianco:  75 3PT att	Under
5)  Moussa Gueye:  2.0 bpg	Over
6)  Clay Yeo:  20 mpg	Over
7)  Vashil Fernandez:  6.5 rpg	Under
8)  Lexus Williams:  0.8 spg	Under
9)  Nick Davidson:  redshirt?  yes or no	Yes
10)  Jubril Adekoya:  22 games played	Over
11)  Alec Peters:  45% FG%	Under
12)  David Chadwick:  35% 3FG%	Over
13)  Team:  20 wins	Under
14)  Tie-breaker--team points per game, to 3 sig figs	66.2

[talksalot]

OVER or UNDER?

1)  Keith Carter:  5.0 apg    Under, but barely.
2)  Jordan Coleman:  9.5 ppg   Over
3)  LaVonte Dority:  80% FTs  Under
4)  Bobby Capobianco:  75 3PT att   (Before or after Christmas?)   Under
5)  Moussa Gueye:  2.0 bpg  Under
6)  Clay Yeo:  20 mpg  Over
7)  Vashil Fernandez:  6.5 rpg  Over
8)  Lexus Williams:  0.8 spg  Over
9)  Nick Davidson:  redshirt?  yes or no   Yes
10)  Jubril Adekoya:  22 games played  Over
11)  Alec Peters:  45% FG%   Over
12)  David Chadwick:  35% 3FG%   Under
13)  Team:  20 wins  Over
14)  Tie-breaker--team points per game, to 3 sig figs  Bryce's historical average 69.75... I say he lets these guys run... 69.760

Nice Figures!

Add one:  Average number of Crusader Band Members:  35

[valpofan11]

OVER or UNDER?

1)  Keith Carter:  5.0 apg     Under               

2)  Jordan Coleman:  9.5 ppg Over

3)  LaVonte Dority:  80% FTs  Under

4)  Bobby Capobianco:  75 3PT att Under

5)  Moussa Gueye:  2.0 bpg  Under

6)  Clay Yeo:  20 mpg  Over

7)  Vashil Fernandez:  6.5 rpg Under

8)  Lexus Williams:  0.8 spg  Over

9)  Nick Davidson:  redshirt?  yes or no  No

10)  Jubril Adekoya:  22 games played   Over

11)  Alec Peters:  45% FG%  Over

12)  David Chadwick:  35% 3FG%  Under (barely)

13)  Team:  20 wins  Under (I'll go with 16.)

14)  Tie-breaker--team points per game, to 3 sig figs  72.3

[wh]

OVER or UNDER?

1)  Keith Carter:  5.0 apg                              Under
2)  Jordan Coleman:  9.5 ppg                         Under
3)  LaVonte Dority:  80% FTs                         Under
4)  Bobby Capobianco:  75 3PT att                  Under
5)  Moussa Gueye:  2.0 bpg                           Over
6)  Clay Yeo:  20 mpg                                   Over
7)  Vashil Fernandez:  6.5 rpg                        Under
8)  Lexus Williams:  0.8 spg                           Over
9)  Nick Davidson:  redshirt?  yes or no            No
10)  Jubril Adekoya:  22 games played              Over
11)  Alec Peters:  45% FG%                            Over
12)  David Chadwick:  35% 3FG%                    Under
13)  Team:  20 wins                                      Over
14)  Tie-breaker--team points per game, to 3 sig figs     72.8

[historyman]

I agree with assists - getting 5 apg is not an easy thing in college basketball, especially for a non-running team that has many guards.

You certainly are going to be surprised when you see this current Valpo team play because they run the fastbreak more than any Valpo team in the past. You better keep your eyes on the ball because the game just got a whole lot faster at the ARC.