11/17/2013 Sunday 1:00 p.m. CST --Valpo at Ohio University--game thread

[LaPorteAveApostle]

there are some TOs listed as "team".  maybe Sir TalksALot can shed some light on what the s'keeper were thinking.

[truth219]

I will say this and this is only my opinion and I'm sure the stats will prove me wrong. However, it seems to me that Coleman and Fernandez have both progressed every year they have been at valpo. Dority had improved his shooting, but his driving capabilities and decision making leave little to be desired. I haven't seen that in capobianco. I know he is a senior but still I believe we would be better of with a swingman as our 4 than have bobby try to.

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[LaPorteAveApostle]

i'll give you credit for the 2nd phantom TO.

Even so, Capo turned the ball over half as often as Peters--and that's AFTER correcting for the difference in minutes played.

[classof2014]

I will say this and this is only my opinion and I'm sure the stats will prove me wrong. However, it seems to me that Coleman and Fernandez have both progressed every year they have been at valpo. Dority had improved his shooting, but his driving capabilities and decision making leave little to be desired. I haven't seen that in capobianco. I know he is a senior but still I believe we would be better of with a swingman as our 4 than have bobby try to.

Agree 100% on that, Bobby hasn't improved at all. He doesn't have the ball-handling or quickness to be a 4. He's much better suited at posting up under the basket and take the occasional outside shot. Peters should be at the 4. I think the main issue with Dority this season is that he isn't a PG and he's had to play PG. He's much more of a 2 and once Carter is eligible I think he'll thrive in the 2 position.

Bobby hasn't done much this year. He only has one game where he had more than 10 points and that was against lowly North Park. He's never had more than 4 rebounds in a game, and only 3 offensive boards all season. He hasn't been a turnover machine but he hasn't done anything but make a few 3 pointers and he's not made more than 2 in a single game all season. Compared to last season he hasn't done much. If it weren't for the 3 pointers the scoring numbers would be much lower than they are right now.

Hillsdale- 8 mins, 0-3 shooting (0-2 from 3), 0 RBs, 0 TOs, 0 ast, and 2 PFs

RMU- 12 mins, 3 pts (1-3, 1-2 FT), 1 rb, 1 ast, 1 stl, 1 TO, 1 PF

MSU-16 mins, 9 pts (2-4, 2-3 from 3), 4 RBs, 1 ast, 1 stl, 2 TO, 3 PF

NP- 17 mins, 12 pts, (5-6, 1-1 from 3), 4 RBs, 2 ast, 0 stl, 0 TO, 0 PF

IL- 22 mins, 6 pts (2-5, 2-2 from 3), 3 RBs (2 oRB), 1 ast, 0 stl, 5 TOs, 4 PFs

OH- 17 mins, 5 pts, (2-6, 1-2 from 3), 4 RBs (1 oRB), 1 ast, 0  stl, 1 TO, 2 PFs

[LaPorteAveApostle]

counting exhibition games where he was hurt is like counting sins one's already been forgiven.  Jesus forgets--shouldn't you?

The rest of the stats show a guy who picks his spots pretty well. 
--4th leading scorer on the team when he is playing the 7th (almost 8th) most minutes
--among the 8-man rotation, has the 3rd highest pts/40 min after Dority and Coleman *cough* ahead of Peters 17.8 to 15.6. 
--Highest true shooting % number on the team (67.7). 
--The only people averaging more PPWS (points per weighted shot) are Adekoya and Davidson, who don't really count at the moment.  Same for eFG%.

What do y'all have to put against those numbers?

Your 'feelings'?

[bbtds]

If it weren't for the 3 pointers the scoring numbers would be much lower than they are right now.

Isn't that like saying if it weren't for the extra points and FG's that place kickers wouldn't get many points. If it is a positive result then it works. I see where some could argue it isn't a positive result but I think it has been. Not by a lot but it is a positive.

[LaPorteAveApostle]

Isn't that like saying if it weren't for the extra points and FG's that place kickers wouldn't get many points.

or "if it weren't for John Wilkes Booth Lincoln would have loved that play"

[truth219]

I don't have numbers. However, future opponents will know how easy it is to defend him. Keep a body on him at the perimeter and double team when he attempts to drive.

Let me ask a question...is the starting lineup Bryce has put on the court the best 5 players valpo had? Are we starting with our best foot forward? Currently, I don't think we are. I understand Bobby is a senior but I think he would be a nice player to come off the bench. Make him earn his spot back. Maybe he has become complacent. I don't know but I believe enough fans are seeing the same thing to ask the question.

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[LaPorteAveApostle]

I don't know that a starting lineup is supposed to be your 5 best players.

I think your starting lineup is your best UNIT.  And in that unit, Capo adds both size and outside shooting.

Let's take your example:  "keep a body on him at the perimeter and double team when he attempts to drive"

Even if that were all he did, he's doing this (at a MINIMUM):

--taking their second-tallest player out to the 3-point line, increasing space down low for our post and keeping his guy from optimal rebounding position.
OR
--catching them in a switch and ending up with a shorter guy to shoot over from deep.
AND
--drawing a double team means (providing he doesn't travel) someone will be open on the perimeter, and maybe two someones.

But all that is saying that if he were just a decoy.

I don't concede the point.  (And, given his injury problems, he's probably best going in at the start after warmups and stretching too.)

Even if you say "no your starters have to be your 5 best", he's clearly one of our 5 best players, and one of the 3-4 most effective, at this point. Numbers!

PEOPLE JUST BECAUSE YOU "FEEL" SOMETHING DOESN'T MAKE IT TRUE

the reason our culture is going down the tubes is the ridiculous but popular idea "MY FEELINGS = TRUTH"

[a3uge]

I don't have numbers. However, future opponents will know how easy it is to defend him. Keep a body on him at the perimeter and double team when he attempts to drive.

Let me ask a question...is the starting lineup Bryce has put on the court the best 5 players valpo had? Are we starting with our best foot forward? Currently, I don't think we are. I understand Bobby is a senior but I think he would be a nice player to come off the bench. Make him earn his spot back. Maybe he has become complacent. I don't know but I believe enough fans are seeing the same thing to ask the question.

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There's something to be said about the starting lineup configuration not being effective at this point. Not sure what it is, but Valpo has gotten off to a slow start in all 3 games, and even had some trouble getting going in two non-conference games. Not sure there's a better alternative than a Gueye, Capo, Peters front court with Dority and Coleman in the backcourt, but maybe having Capo come off the bench would send a message. I would suggest a smaller lineup with Gueye/Vashil, Peters, Coleman, Dority, and Williams to help with the tempo early in the game. Having Capo, Gueye/Vashil, and Peters on the court at the same time just makes the offense feel stuck in the mud. Defensively the "big" lineup almost seems counterproductive, especially when the opposing team can hit perimeter shots.

[vusupporter]

The most effective lineup yesterday (the one that was in there during the key run) was Dority, Yeo, Coleman, Peters and Gueye.  Would be interesting to see that as the starting five...

[valpopal]

The most effective lineup yesterday (the one that was in there during the key run) was Dority, Yeo, Coleman, Peters and Gueye.  Would be interesting to see that as the starting five...

Unfortunately, those five also were responsible for 14 turnovers, which led to a 25-13 edge for Ohio in points off turnovers and was the difference between a win and a loss. 

[LaPorteAveApostle]

There's something to be said about the starting lineup configuration not being effective at this point.

I would agree with this.

The most effective lineup yesterday (the one that was in there during the key run) was Dority, Yeo, Coleman, Peters and Gueye.

Yes about the TOs, but the flip side is that matchups are so key...it's not just about how your 5 work together, but how they work against the other 5.  So it's hard to say "that is the key" because it could just be the particular setting that's an issue.

I know plus/minus is an overrated stat in BB, but it'd be interesting to find it for us...anyone know a site?

this is why you love me i took the time to answer my own question:  statsheet, but only on individual players' pages. so i started to compile it and then thought...eh.  3 games...not a great idea of time.  later.

[bbtds]

so i started to compile it and then thought...eh. 

I should be more like you. It saves you time for your daughter.

[talksalot]

there are some TOs listed as "team".  maybe Sir TalksALot can shed some light on what the s'keeper were thinking.


Most of the time, those are Shot-Clock Violations.  and I believe they can occur on a stuck-ball-in-the-rim alternate possession situation, if the other team gets the ball.  Not sure about other alternate possession turnovers.

[bbtds]

alternate possession turnovers

Aren't those the desserts you have to give back because you have already had your fair share?   

[talksalot]

My quick answer is "no, because they are __________" but I have not come up with a snappy comeback, yet.... give me time.

[wh]

I think our starting lineup needs adjusted. If dority isn't a point guard, then why play him there.  Besides having a good shot, dority is average at every other aspect. Williams should start and bobby needs to be benched.

Agreed. Bobby, looks awful, I know he was injured but that doesn't account for the bonehead plays he's been making on the court. I'm not saying we win the Illinois game without Bobby but I think we would've had a much higher chance. Everyone else I've been pleased with. Bobby looks awful and had 5 of our 12 turnovers against Illinois, which is ridiculous in my opinion. I'd say move Peters to the 4. I know Moussa hasn't been anything special but he plays solid defense and so does Vashil, they take away their big man, Bobby has been a liability offensively and defensively and has always been in foul trouble.

So far the 2 biggest surprises has been the play of Lexus Williams and Jordan Coleman and the biggest disappointment has been Bobby. Perhaps benching him will wake him up cause he's done nothing so far this season other than make a few 3 pointers.

Okay, this is not going to be popular, but I am going to defend Bobby. The comments here are similar to ones posted last year even into the beginning of conference play. I just looked at the posts after the January Loyola loss, and the criticism of Bobby was the same. However, later in the season his play was praised, especially after the ejection at Detroit.

First of all, Bobby's play has not been as bad as stated. His field goal shooting is at 60%. His three-point shooting is at 83%. He is averaging 1 point for every 2 minutes of play. He has committed 8 turnovers in 3 games (2.6 avg.) He has committed 7 fouls in three games, an average a little more than 2. Admittedly, he doesn't exhibit the flow or stamina that he had at his peak last year, but he did get a slow start to the season because of his lingering leg injury and lack of practice time. Last year he also had a slow start due to his surgery.

In addition, he is playing a new position this year, which will require a different approach, a couple more outside shots, and probably result in fewer rebounds. As a forward rather than a center, he is up against quicker players, especially when the opposing team is Illinois. Therefore, I would expect more turnovers and fouls as a result. However, when we get to conference play, I also expect Bobby to be stronger, to be more in the flow, and to match up well in most games; therefore, his stats will improve.

On the board last year when there were similar complaints, I recommended patience with Bobby's progress, and he proved the wait was worth it. I will be patient again this year, and I hope he exhibits progress the way he did last year.

At this early stage (and I emphasize early) Bobby has the lowest plus/minus and Roland averages among the starters by a pretty significant margin:

http://statsheet.com/mcb/players/compare?p1=bobby-capobianco&p2=moussa-gueye&p3=alec-peters&p4=lavonte-dority&p5=jordan-coleman&p6

Roland avg. is a fairly telling number in terms of overall impact because it represents the difference between the team's plus/minus when the player is in the game vs. when he's not.  Bobby has the lowest, Alec has the highest (by far), and Jordan's is also very good (relatively speaking).  Again, I emphasize that this is based on a very small sample size and could look a lot different deeper into the season. One thing that this helps support for sure is that Alec Peters is off to a very good start as a Crusader.

[LaPorteAveApostle]

plus they don't count NP, do they?  looked like 3 games when I glanced last night.

which reminds me, why wasn't NP an exhibition and one of the other games a real one?  why are we playing D3 teams and counting it?

[valpopal]

I think our starting lineup needs adjusted. If dority isn't a point guard, then why play him there.  Besides having a good shot, dority is average at every other aspect. Williams should start and bobby needs to be benched.

Agreed. Bobby, looks awful, I know he was injured but that doesn't account for the bonehead plays he's been making on the court. I'm not saying we win the Illinois game without Bobby but I think we would've had a much higher chance. Everyone else I've been pleased with. Bobby looks awful and had 5 of our 12 turnovers against Illinois, which is ridiculous in my opinion. I'd say move Peters to the 4. I know Moussa hasn't been anything special but he plays solid defense and so does Vashil, they take away their big man, Bobby has been a liability offensively and defensively and has always been in foul trouble.

So far the 2 biggest surprises has been the play of Lexus Williams and Jordan Coleman and the biggest disappointment has been Bobby. Perhaps benching him will wake him up cause he's done nothing so far this season other than make a few 3 pointers.

Okay, this is not going to be popular, but I am going to defend Bobby. The comments here are similar to ones posted last year even into the beginning of conference play. I just looked at the posts after the January Loyola loss, and the criticism of Bobby was the same. However, later in the season his play was praised, especially after the ejection at Detroit.

First of all, Bobby's play has not been as bad as stated. His field goal shooting is at 60%. His three-point shooting is at 83%. He is averaging 1 point for every 2 minutes of play. He has committed 8 turnovers in 3 games (2.6 avg.) He has committed 7 fouls in three games, an average a little more than 2. Admittedly, he doesn't exhibit the flow or stamina that he had at his peak last year, but he did get a slow start to the season because of his lingering leg injury and lack of practice time. Last year he also had a slow start due to his surgery.

In addition, he is playing a new position this year, which will require a different approach, a couple more outside shots, and probably result in fewer rebounds. As a forward rather than a center, he is up against quicker players, especially when the opposing team is Illinois. Therefore, I would expect more turnovers and fouls as a result. However, when we get to conference play, I also expect Bobby to be stronger, to be more in the flow, and to match up well in most games; therefore, his stats will improve.

On the board last year when there were similar complaints, I recommended patience with Bobby's progress, and he proved the wait was worth it. I will be patient again this year, and I hope he exhibits progress the way he did last year.

At this early stage (and I emphasize early) Bobby has the lowest plus/minus and Roland averages among the starters by a pretty significant margin:

http://statsheet.com/mcb/players/compare?p1=bobby-capobianco&p2=moussa-gueye&p3=alec-peters&p4=lavonte-dority&p5=jordan-coleman&p6

Roland avg. is a fairly telling number in terms of overall impact because it represents the difference between the team's plus/minus when the player is in the game vs. when he's not.  Bobby has the lowest, Alec has the highest (by far), and Jordan's is also very good (relatively speaking).  Again, I emphasize that this is based on a very small sample size and could look a lot different deeper into the season. One thing that this helps support for sure is that Alec Peters is off to a very good start as a Crusader.

The stat sheet also supports my point that exaggerated claims by some about Bobby's play have been wrong: Bobby has the best effective field goal percent, best true shooting percent, third highest points per 40, third highest offensive rating, fewest fouls per game among the starters, trails guards Coleman & Dority by only 0.25 in assists per game, he is second in assist percentage behind only Dority, etc.

We can agree on the need to create better flow for the team throughout the game, but to suggest the problem is Bobby's "horrible" play, that he has "done nothing" and "looks awful" as some have stated, is simply wrong. In addition, I wouldn't be surprised to see Bobby shuttled between forward and center, as in the Ohio game, more as conference play begins and Bryce tries the smaller lineup against those teams that do not have an Alec Brown, and when Carter is at point guard feeding the ball inside.

By the way, I pulled up Alec Brown's stats thus far, and Bobby's stats are far better. The supposed NBA prospect is 0-5 on 3-pointers, while Bobby is at 75% (6-8), Bobby's effective field goal percent is 67% while Brown's is at 32%, Brown's free throw percent is 0 (0-2), Bobby's points per 40 is 17.8 while Brown's is 11.4, (despite playing forward) Bobby trails Brown in rebounds per game by less than 1, etc.

I know, very early in the season and apples to oranges some might say, but who would have thought Bobby would be outperforming Alec Brown and there would be such strong complaints about Bobby's play.

[classof2014]

Take away the game against North Park which is being counted in the stats as a regular game where he was 5-6 from the floor and 1-1 from 3.

He's 6-15 shooting (5-7) from 3. So far he's only made one two point shot. Right now he's shooting 71% from 3, which isn't gonna last. When he's gone up against D1 opponents this season he simply hasn't been that good. At this point in the season his starting job is on the hot seat. I think he should play more at the 5 instead of the 4. He doesn't have the speed or ball handling to be at the 4. So right now once Carter is eligible he's the one that loses his starting job.

When he's been on the floor the offense has seemed pretty stagnant. Right now the best lineup on the court seems to be Dority, Coleman, Yeo, Peters, Vashil/Moussa. I would like to see him get more time at the 5 when those 4 are on the court but overall he has done nothing to wow me. Everyone else has who came back from last year seemed to have made significant strides in their game, Bobby right now just doesn't look that good. I really hope he proves me wrong but right now the offense runs better with him on the bench.

I'm guessing some of it is Bobby in the 4 because he isn't a 4. He should be playing down in the post where he can use his size like he did last year.

[truth219]

Has anyone  else been let down by David Chadwick basically not having a role this year so far?

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[bbtds]

By the way, I pulled up Alec Brown's stats thus far, and Bobby's stats are far better. The supposed NBA prospect is 0-5 on 3-pointers, while Bobby is at 75% (6-8), Bobby's effective field goal percent is 67% while Brown's is at 32%, Brown's free throw percent is 0 (0-2), Bobby's points per 40 is 17.8 while Brown's is 11.4, (despite playing forward) Bobby trails Brown in rebounds per game by less than 1, etc.

I think the color guy on the Wisconsin at Green Bay game said it best when he said "Boy, it's been a lost night for Alec Brown."

[FWalum]

This is what I think is really going on with Bobby.  He has never thought of himself as a 5. He played it most of the time last year but you could see, especially at the beginning of the year, that he really had not taken to the position.  He did play the 5 better as the year went on but was never a KVW.  He truly thinks of himself as a 4 and the addition of Moussa has allowed him to play outside face to the basket.  He is a good shooter but rather sloppy in the ball handling skills.  What surprises me a little is that BOTH Bobby and Moussa want to face the basket! How many times Sunday did you see Moussa receive the ball... hesitate... face up... try to make a move or pivot into the defensive pressure and be unsuccessful.  What KVW had in the post was not the result of being really big or athletic it was an attitude, energy and work ethic.  It is not easy to say to yourself, I am going to battle for position on every possession, I am going to post and re-post as often as it takes to get my man in a favorable position and because I have worked so hard to get my man in that position when I receive the entry pass I will be able to make a decisive move in a split second with no hesitation.  I did not see one post entry where the 5 took an immediate drop step and put the ball up off glass even though there were several opportunities to do so. Every post move took too long and down in the post time is the enemy.

[wh]

This is what I think is really going on with Bobby.  He has never thought of himself as a 5. He played it most of the time last year but you could see, especially at the beginning of the year, that he really had not taken to the position.  He did play the 5 better as the year went on but was never a KVW.  He truly thinks of himself as a 4 and the addition of Moussa has allowed him to play outside face to the basket.  He is a good shooter but rather sloppy in the ball handling skills.  What surprises me a little is that BOTH Bobby and Moussa want to face the basket! How many times Sunday did you see Moussa receive the ball... hesitate... face up... try to make a move or pivot into the defensive pressure and be unsuccessful.  What KVW had in the post was not the result of being really big or athletic it was an attitude, energy and work ethic.  It is not easy to say to yourself, I am going to battle for position on every possession, I am going to post and re-post as often as it takes to get my man in a favorable position and because I have worked so hard to get my man in that position when I receive the entry pass I will be able to make a decisive move in a split second with no hesitation.  I did not see one post entry where the 5 took an immediate drop step and put the ball up off glass even though there were several opportunities to do so. Every post move took too long and down in the post time is the enemy.

I've been fumbling this around over and over in my mind, trying to figure out how our low post players are getting so easily neutralized despite a clear size/strength advantage. You just cleared it up for me in one insightful paragraph.  Great post!