Bracketology and other HL Rankings

a3uge · December 18, 2013, 10:45:35 AM

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

After Wright State sat in the 13-seed spot for over a month, Lunardi finally updated his bracketology projections. He has Green Bay as a 15 seed playing Marcus Smart and Oklahoma State in San Antonio. This is probably not going to happen, as Milwaukee is a tournament host this year and Green Bay would likely get seeded in the Midwest. I want to predict Green Bay as a 14 seed playing Michigan State in the first round in Milwaukee... but anything can happen. Predicting seeds and locations is about as easy as guessing which player Brian Wardle is going to berate next.

On the Mid Major Top 25 front, Green Bay is 15th, Milwaukee is 22nd, and YSU received a fair number of votes.

Using RPI Forecast Expected RPIs because UMKC is like 120 RPI.

Green Bay's top 3 wins: H Virginia (45.3 RPI), N Tulsa (159.8 RPI), N Pepperdine (189.7 RPI)
Milwaukee's top 3 wins: H Northern Iowa (103.4 RPI), @ Davidson (202.2 RPI), H Bradley (229.2 RPI)
YSU's top 3 wins: N Eastern Kentucky (144.8 RPI), H Robert Morris (189.3 RPI), N FIU (199.2 RPI)

For the record, Valpo's top 3 RPI wins are: H LMU (155.7 RPI), H UCF (168.0 RPI), H Murray State (214.4 RPI)

So nothing spectacular all around in the league. Like I've been saying, unless a bunch of mid majors lose their conference tournaments, the Horizon League is going to output a 15 seed, with 14 being the ceiling. Green Bay only has one non-conference game left and it's against Fairfield. If they lose only a couple conference games, they could jump up to a higher seed, but I bet they lose 4 or 5 games on the road this year.

Edit: also, CBS Sports has a bracketology, but they do a pretty poor job: http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology They have UWGB at a 13 seed.

FWalum · December 18, 2013, 01:17:16 PM

Wow, look at IPFW sneaking in at #25... What a crock of S#!t They must have the weakest schedule in D1... Oh, I'm sorry it is not the weakest but it is ranked #327!

a3uge · December 26, 2013, 09:07:46 AM

Here's an updated MM top 25. Green Bay moves up to 8, Milwaukee slides to 24, YSU gets 22 votes and Valpo squeaks in with one vote.

wh · December 26, 2013, 06:05:43 PM

Current SOS by team:

Good to very good - top 100
10 Oakland
38 Detroit
55 GB
99 Valpo

Acceptable - top half
146 CSU
158 YSU

Needs improvement
197 UIC
235 Milw

Completely unacceptable
347 WSU (out of 351 teams)

If the Horizon League ever hopes to become a multi-bid conference or earn seeds that provide a realistic opportunity to win early round tournament games, every HL member has to be on the same page relative to scheduling quality OOC opponents. Obviously, that is not the case right now. The league office has got to step up.

vu72 · December 26, 2013, 08:04:22 PM

What's worse is they aren't undefeated or anything close. They're 7-7 plus a loss in an exhibition.

Pathfinder · December 27, 2013, 07:56:26 AM

Then there's all the NAIA teams on Horizon schedules. Milwaukee is the only team in the league without at least 2 NAIA/NCAA D-II/III teams on the schedule. Those games don't count for SOS rankings.

LaPorteAveApostle · December 27, 2013, 08:06:35 AM

Since any non-D1 game doesn't count (D2, 3, NAIA, etc.)--that would have been vastly preferable to Wright State's debacle. If it doesn't count, then it's not bringing you down.

Remember the 'parable' of the Tar Baby? No good can come from wrestling the Alcorn States and NC A&Ts. Even winning brings you down. Losing is catastrophic.

Losing to a D2? Doesn't matter to RPI, SOS, IRS, etc.

wh · December 30, 2013, 10:24:14 PM

Final OOC SOS by team:

Good to very good - top 100
7 Oakland
65 GB
93 Valpo

Acceptable - top half
117 Detroit
128 CSU
142 UIC

Needs improvement
205 YSU
241 Milw

Completely unacceptable
341 WSU (out of 351 teams)

Thinking back to the A-10 scheduling point system, the goal is to avoid scheduling anyone with an RPI worse than 200 from the prior year. WSU and Milw, and YSU to a lesser degree, would never have been allowed to go forward with their crap, OOC schedules full of bad low-major opponents. And to think they have fans who think their program deserves to be promoted to a higher rated league somewhere. A sign of the times we live in, I guess; nobody thinks they should have to earn anything anymore. Then again, maybe they're right. Look at Loyola.

wh · December 31, 2013, 09:23:15 AM

Quote from: wh on December 30, 2013, 10:24:14 PM

Thinking back to the A-10 scheduling point system, the goal is to avoid scheduling anyone with an RPI worse than 200 from the prior year. WSU and Milw, and YSU to a lesser degree, would never have been allowed to go forward with their crap, OOC schedules full of bad low-major opponents. And to think they have fans who think their program deserves to be promoted to a higher rated league somewhere. A sign of the times we live in, I guess; nobody thinks they should have to earn anything anymore. Then again, maybe they're right. Look at Loyola.

For the record Loyola's RPI stands at 314 and their SOS is 325. How long have they had the revamped Gentile Center now? How long have they been "ideally located" in a major metropolitan area and media center that so enamored university presidents on the MVC search committee? How long have they been located in one of the best hot beds for basketball talent in the United States? Of course, I keep forgetting that we're expected to believe that none of this should count for anything. It's all about conference affiliation, right? As members of the mighty MVC (RPI ranking 11 thanks to Loyola) instead of the lowly HL (RPI ranking 13) surely their fortunes will change.

LaPorteAveApostle · January 01, 2014, 10:27:13 PM

Speaking of HL rankings, just wanted to post my HL non-con blog

http://www.valpofanzone.com/2014/01/01/horizon-league-the-non-con-2013/

wh · January 01, 2014, 11:55:13 PM

Interesting and informative. Well done!

Pathfinder · January 02, 2014, 10:38:46 PM

Great stuff

LaPorteAveApostle · January 03, 2014, 07:07:26 AM

Quote from: Pathfinder on January 02, 2014, 10:38:46 PMGreat stuff

Thanks, gentlemen!

wh, I was honestly going to dedicate the post to you because you're my biggest fan. Accept the first paragraph instead as my apology

a3uge · January 06, 2014, 04:04:42 PM

Forgot to post this last week... should be another update today or tomorrow.

MM Top 25: Green Bay up 1, Milwaukee up 2, and YSU gets less votes. We should see Valpo losing that vote, Milwaukee dropping out completely, and GB staying put at 7.

Link: http://www.collegeinsider.com/mens-mid-major-top-25.php

Bracketology was also updated on Jan 2nd... Lunardi boosted Green Bay up a seed. I really can't see Green Bay traveling all the way to San Antonio when Milwaukee is a first round site. Also, including Indiana State was fairly hilarious. Can't really understand why Lundardi predicts Indiana State upsetting Wichita State in the conference tourney.

Link: http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

a3uge · January 07, 2014, 12:36:19 PM

MM Top 25: Jan 6th, 2013
As predicted, Green Bay maintained the 7th spot and Milwaukee dropped out of the rankings. Surprisingly, YSU/Valpo still got the same number of votes as last time, despite losing this week. Kampe and Donlon were the Horizon League voters, so I would imagine the lone vote came from Kampe.

Link: http://www.collegeinsider.com/mens-mid-major-top-25.php

valpotx · January 07, 2014, 02:36:24 PM

You missed highlighting Cleveland State with 38 votes!

a3uge · January 07, 2014, 03:21:56 PM

Quote from: valpotx on January 07, 2014, 02:36:24 PM
You missed highlighting Cleveland State with 38 votes!

Oh wow. I am blind.

a3uge · January 09, 2014, 01:14:53 PM

Bracketology has been updated - Jan 9, 2013

Link: http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

Green Bay's RPI is now a respectable 53 (68.4 expected). In comparison, Valpo's RPI was 58 last year on Selection Sunday. Green Bay's top RPI wins are Cleveland State (96) and Virginia (41). Those were both at home. Green Bay still hasn't been tested on the road too much. They lost @ EMU, won against a bad South Dakota team by a slim margin, and won a non-D1 game at Chicago State. They'll play their next 3 games on the road vs UWM, WSU, and UIC. They'll have a touch stretch in February where they play at YSU, at CSU two days later, come home for Valpo, and then go back on the road to play Oakland.

EddieCabot · January 09, 2014, 03:42:50 PM

Quote from: a3uge on January 09, 2014, 01:14:53 PMand won a non-D1 game at Chicago State.

wh · January 09, 2014, 04:59:27 PM

Quote from: EddieCabot on January 09, 2014, 03:42:50 PM
Quote from: a3uge on January 09, 2014, 01:14:53 PMand won a non-D1 game at Chicago State.

I think he just made a mistake. Had you said it, I would have attached a whole different meaning to it.

a3uge · January 09, 2014, 05:19:25 PM

Quote from: wh on January 09, 2014, 04:59:27 PM
Quote from: EddieCabot on January 09, 2014, 03:42:50 PM
Quote from: a3uge on January 09, 2014, 01:14:53 PMand won a non-D1 game at Chicago State.

I think he just made a mistake. Had you said it, I would have attached a whole different meaning to it.

Was definitely a jab at Chicago State... I think I have a post on here explaining why Chicago State should be the next Horizon League member right before the University of Hradec Králové Medvědi: http://www.valpofanzone.com/forum/index.php?topic=726.msg12516#msg12516

Edit: Also, I sarcastically said "all-Jesuit conference that looks as if it's all-but-confirmed" - wow, that almost was true!

oklahomamick · January 10, 2014, 09:28:44 AM

Theres no doubt our seeding last year in the tournament was incorrect. We played Michigan St. much tighter than Memphis did in the second round. We lost by 11 and Memphis lost by 22.

oklahomamick · January 10, 2014, 09:29:41 AM

What's more interesting is that Norh Dakota St. from the summit league is a 12th seed.

a3uge · January 10, 2014, 11:16:32 AM

Quote from: oklahomamick on January 10, 2014, 09:29:41 AM
What's more interesting is that Norh Dakota St. from the summit league is a 12th seed.

Yeah, I said this in another thread, but the Summit League is misleading because NDSU's and UNO's RPIs will take a hit. At the time of this Bracketology, NDSU's RPI was 21.... you read that right... 21. They just lost to IPFW last night, so their RPI has slipped 12 points in 1 game (wow). Expected RPI is 66 now. I don't know if they'll make the tourney, but I would imagine them as more of a 13-14 seed if they do. Last year they gave Nate Wolters a 14 seed, so I'm not entirely sure how high the committee is on the Summit. They do have a good OOC SOS, which is something the committee really likes, and they do have a couple top 100 RPI wins. They beat the bipolar Notre Dame team in South Bend, which is definitely a quality win. I remember watching that game and hearing the announcers do the same old spiel "give credit to them for competing" despite being up most of the game. One thing about teams like the North Dakota/western schools is that they'll plug them anywhere because they're geographically out of range anyways.

valpo64 · January 10, 2014, 12:32:14 PM

Somewhere recently there were comments about IPFW and the Summit/Horizon League thing. IPFW moved their home games from the Coliseum in FW back to their campus facility supposedly to help increase attendance, enthusiasm, etc. Last night was their "big home game" versus Summit and Mid-major powerhouse North Dakota State. IPFW whipped them 82-71 before an enthusiastic crowd of 608! Many in attendance were dressed like empty seats. It sure looks like that venue change really helped.