Bracketology and other HL Rankings

mvandersee · January 10, 2014, 01:16:59 PM

Quote from: a3uge on January 06, 2014, 04:04:42 PM

Bracketology was also updated on Jan 2nd... Lunardi boosted Green Bay up a seed. I really can't see Green Bay traveling all the way to San Antonio when Milwaukee is a first round site. Also, including Indiana State was fairly hilarious. Can't really understand why Lundardi predicts Indiana State upsetting Wichita State in the conference tourney.

Link: http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

I don't think that the committee really looks at location when they place anyone not in a top 4 or 5 seed. For example last year they surely didn't consider travel distance when they put La Salle in KC or La Salle and Belmont in SLC. Frankly they probably don't expect "small conference teams" to have travelling fans no matter the distance, so I doubt that they would see putting UWGB in Milwaukee as any sort of boost to ticket sales that they couldn't get from UW-Madison, Marquette, Minnesota, or Illinois.

In regards to WSU being upset in the Valley Tournament, it's always a decent possibility considering the Shockers have not won it since it has moved to the neutral site in St. Louis (1991). As a lifelong Shocker fan it's always nerve racking being on the bubble heading into that weekend knowing that 1987 is the last time we received the auto-bid by winning the tourney. Also, Indiana St has a solid team that could have a decent shot at beating WSU in a winner-take-all game.

valpotx · January 10, 2014, 01:48:29 PM

Uh, tell that to our team from last year in regards to Montana receiving a higher seed and placed on the West coast, instead of us...

a3uge · January 10, 2014, 02:23:05 PM

Quote from: mvandersee on January 10, 2014, 01:16:59 PM
Quote from: a3uge on January 06, 2014, 04:04:42 PM

Bracketology was also updated on Jan 2nd... Lunardi boosted Green Bay up a seed. I really can't see Green Bay traveling all the way to San Antonio when Milwaukee is a first round site. Also, including Indiana State was fairly hilarious. Can't really understand why Lundardi predicts Indiana State upsetting Wichita State in the conference tourney.

Link: http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

I don't think that the committee really looks at location when they place anyone not in a top 4 or 5 seed. For example last year they surely didn't consider travel distance when they put La Salle in KC or La Salle and Belmont in SLC. Frankly they probably don't expect "small conference teams" to have travelling fans no matter the distance, so I doubt that they would see putting UWGB in Milwaukee as any sort of boost to ticket sales that they couldn't get from UW-Madison, Marquette, Minnesota, or Illinois.

In regards to WSU being upset in the Valley Tournament, it's always a decent possibility considering the Shockers have not won it since it has moved to the neutral site in St. Louis (1991). As a lifelong Shocker fan it's always nerve racking being on the bubble heading into that weekend knowing that 1987 is the last time we received the auto-bid by winning the tourney. Also, Indiana St has a solid team that could have a decent shot at beating WSU in a winner-take-all game.

At one point I started a map of all teams and their host site location. I'll have to dig that up. Last year we saw Valpo get a 14 seed when less deserving teams wound up a 13 seed. Detroit was a close site to Valpo, so geography did play a part there. The "First Four" screws things up (LaSalle), as well as not having duplicate matchups, seeding, etc. The committee has made it clear that they will change a teams seed for geographic reasons. Its sometimes impossible to place a team because they don't want conference opponents playing each other until the elite 8.

As for WSU - they're a lock for an at large. I just found it odd they predicted an Indiana State upset in the conf tourney since he typically doesn't predict conference tourney upsets. Nonetheless, Indiana State is no longer on the board and WSU is listed as a 2 seed.

a3uge · January 13, 2014, 02:05:17 PM

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology
J Palm has a Bracketology that usually isn't as good, but nonetheless it exists and is worth sharing. He has Green Bay a 12 seed against 5 Memphis. I do think if Green Bay only loses a handful of conference games, they could be a 12 seed, especially with EMU, Harvard, and Wisconsin doing so well (their only losses). I don't they'll run the table in the conference and they'll lose 4 or so games on the road. 13 seed still seems about right, but we'll know a lot more about how well they can do on the road by next Friday when they play @Wright State.

a3uge · January 14, 2014, 11:37:11 AM

New MM Top 25 out. The Jaspers lost to Qunipiac, so they fell substantially. That's what happens when you're a MAAC team. We also see Cleveland State getting some more votes (this was before the YSU loss last night). Milwaukee surprisingly almost dropped off completely with an OT loss to GB at home. Valpo, of course, is no longer received any votes, and YSU surprisingly dropped off as well, despite winning @UIC since last week, although I'm not sure why they had so many votes to begin with. They did just beat Cleveland St, so they'll probably be back next week after they beat Detroit.

Link:http://www.collegeinsider.com/mens-mid-major-top-25.php

valpotx · January 14, 2014, 02:13:28 PM

It looks like RealtimeRPI finally added the American conference to their rankings:

http://www.realtimerpi.com/rpi_conf_Men.html

a3uge · January 16, 2014, 12:47:49 PM

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

Moving up...

a3uge · January 21, 2014, 02:45:32 PM

New MM Top 25 out, and Green Bay moves up a slot after Indiana State got plumbed by Wichita State. There's some small talk about Green Bay getting an at-large if they somehow win out and lose in the conference tourney... I feel it's unlikely that a team good enough to win every single game in conference game would lose at home in the conference tournament. More likely, Green Bay will drop a couple of games.

The 'Receiving Votes' section still appears to be a mystery. YSU was receiving votes and then dropped out mysteriously AFTER beating Cleveland State. They won last week against Detroit and are still missing. Cleveland State nearly cracked the top 25, and then they lost to Wright State, whom enters the list for the first time (they're finally under 200 RPI). You still won't see their fans letting everyone know what place they were picked to finish in conference this year, unlike last year.

a3uge · January 23, 2014, 03:54:08 PM

Green Bay holding steady at a 12 seed in Lunardi's Bracketology. Not surprisingly.

Link: http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology

a3uge · January 29, 2014, 04:31:55 PM

Green Bay moves to 4 after Harvard drops like a rock from their loss to FAU. Note: Green Bay lost to Harvard in Alaska this year. Cleveland State jumps up to get some votes, and Wright State stays about the same.

wh · February 02, 2014, 03:34:37 PM

The Horizon League just fell from 13th to 14th in conference RPI:

http://warrennolan.com/basketball/2014/conferencerpi

14th is still respectable, but not where we should be. WSU's disappointing record combined with their terrible OOC schedule has had an unanticipated negative effect. Then of course there's UIC...

oklahomamick · February 02, 2014, 05:10:12 PM

The summit league is just behind us. Will they pass us? That will be embarrassing if so.

a3uge · February 03, 2014, 11:55:18 AM

Quote from: oklahomamick on February 02, 2014, 05:10:12 PM
The summit league is just behind us. Will they pass us? That will be embarrassing if so.

That would be nearly impossible since neither conference has any OOC games remaining.

It doesn't really pass the smell test either. I think GB > North Dakota St and UIC > IUPUI. That's 1st and last. Summit's 2nd, 3rd, and 4th best teams are Denver, IPFW, and UNO... I feel Cleveland State is probably on par with Denver, but IPFW and UNO aren't as good as the middle of the Horizon, including the disappointing WSU, whom should have been top 100 RPI competing for a HL Championship this year, not to losing to schools like NORTH CAROLINA A & F*&%ing T.

oklahomamick · February 03, 2014, 01:56:46 PM

Quote from: a3uge on February 03, 2014, 11:55:18 AM
Quote from: oklahomamick on February 02, 2014, 05:10:12 PM
The summit league is just behind us. Will they pass us? That will be embarrassing if so.

That would be nearly impossible since neither conference has any OOC games remaining.

It doesn't really pass the smell test either. I think GB > North Dakota St and UIC > IUPUI. That's 1st and last. Summit's 2nd, 3rd, and 4th best teams are Denver, IPFW, and UNO... I feel Cleveland State is probably on par with Denver, but IPFW and UNO aren't as good as the middle of the Horizon, including the disappointing WSU, whom should have been top 100 RPI competing for a HL Championship this year, not to losing to schools like NORTH CAROLINA A & F*&%ing T.

Good, I live in Tulsa and I'm always boasting that the HL is better than both CUSA (Tulsa University) and the Summit or Southland (ORU). I noticed that CUSA just passed the HL so I lost that argument....

I understand your shots at WSU. WSU fans even have a topic on their Blog, questioning Donovan. He was coach of the year last year, right? I know we still have half the conference left to play, but at the half way point, which coach deserves it?

a3uge · February 03, 2014, 02:20:11 PM

Quote from: oklahomamick on February 03, 2014, 01:56:46 PMI understand your shots at WSU. WSU fans even have a topic on their Blog, questioning Donovan. He was coach of the year last year, right? I know we still have half the conference left to play, but at the half way point, which coach deserves it?

Team	Projected	Standing	Rank (RPI)
Green Bay	1	1	1 (59)
Wright State	2	6	7 (209)
Cleveland St	3	T2	2 (104)
Oakland	4	7	5 (174)
Youngstown St.	5	5	6 (186)
Valparaiso	6	T2	3 (168)
Illinois Chicago	7	9	9 (310)
Detroit	8	8	8 (211)
Milwaukee	9	4	4 (169)

Valpo and Milwaukee are both outperforming expectations while Wright State has been horrible, given the amount of 1st place votes they received.

I would imagine either Jeter or Bryce get it, as giving it to a team that did better than expected seems to be the trendy thing to do now. I can't imagine Wardle gets it since A. He's a horrible coach and B. He's a horrible person.

valporun · February 03, 2014, 10:32:24 PM

Donlon is at WSU, Donovan is at Florida.

FWalum · February 03, 2014, 11:49:20 PM

Quote from: a3uge on February 03, 2014, 11:55:18 AMSummit's 2nd, 3rd, and 4th best teams are Denver, IPFW, and UNO... I feel Cleveland State is probably on par with Denver, but IPFW and UNO aren't as good as the middle of the Horizon, including the disappointing WSU,

I realize that NDSU is the darling of the Summit League sitting at #9 in the Mid-Major poll, but IPFW is currently leading the Summit at 18-6 and 6-1 in conference and is #19 in the Mid-Major poll. While I think their OOC schedule was horse s#!t, and the second half of conference has mostly away games, they still seem to be much improved and on their way to one of the top 2 spots in the conference.

wh · February 04, 2014, 06:58:36 AM

Quote from: wh on February 02, 2014, 03:34:37 PM
The Horizon League just fell from 13th to 14th in conference RPI:

http://warrennolan.com/basketball/2014/conferencerpi

14th is still respectable, but not where we should be. WSU's disappointing record combined with their terrible OOC schedule has had an unanticipated negative effect. Then of course there's UIC...

From the Milwaukee board - following is the HL conference RPI ranking for the previous 13 seasons:

'01- 11
'02- 16
'03- 13
'04- 11
'05- 19
'06- 15
'07- 12
'08- 11
'09- 13
'10- 12
'11- 12
'12- 13
'13- 12

The poster also noted something I had not thought about that had the Big East not "become" two conferences this year, both of which are ahead of the Horizon League (Big East in 4th, AAC in 8th), we would be 13th right now, not 14th. The bottom line is that despite ongoing challenges in the aftermath of losing Butler and Loyola, the Horizon League continues to hold its relative position among D-1 basketball conferences.

a3uge · February 04, 2014, 11:00:09 AM

New MM Top 25. We're receiving votes again, Cleveland State is stuck, and Wright State drops off.

Link: http://www.collegeinsider.com/mens-mid-major-top-25.php

oklahomamick · February 09, 2014, 10:37:32 PM

We lost Loyola and gained Oakland. Everyone thought it was an upgrade. However, Loyola is 4-8 in the Missouri and Oakland is 4-7 (a buzzer beater away from 3-8) in the HL.

a3uge · February 10, 2014, 06:48:02 PM

Quote from: oklahomamick on February 09, 2014, 10:37:32 PM
We lost Loyola and gained Oakland. Everyone thought it was an upgrade. However, Loyola is 4-8 in the Missouri and Oakland is 4-7 (a buzzer beater away from 3-8) in the HL.

Loyola's RPI is terrible. They lost Northern Illinois this year. Glad we lost a perennial 250+ RPI team (278 this year) for Oakland, whom is 1 RPI better than us.

LaPorteAveApostle · February 10, 2014, 07:39:54 PM

yeah they stink, but they took out 2 HL teams this year.

hey! twice as many HL wins as Loyola had 2 years ago!

FWalum · February 13, 2014, 02:04:21 PM

Interesting article by Seth Davis giving us the best chance to make the Tournament of any Indiana school. The premise is that it could be a year when the state of Indiana is without a team in the dance so he rates each Indiana D1's chances of bucking the odds. Searching for an Indiana tourney team