A Different Look at the HL Standings

[LaPorteAveApostle]

This is how the official standings look after the first weekend of play.


But it's not really accurate.  At least, it's not as accurate as would be helpful.  For instance, you would assume from looking at this that Green Bay is first in the conference and Milwaukee third.

But they're not.  Not really.  Hear me out:  Winning at home is simply something that should be done, right?  Holding serve.  And when you can steal one on the road, you've REALLY done something.  Everyone knows these basic postulates.

However, the standings, as constructed, don't bear this reality out, for a couple reasons:
--With 9 teams, there will be games-in-hand, the importance of which every hockey fan knows;
--though the league tries to balance home and away as best they can, there will be slight imbalances that will only be fully rectified by the final standings.  Some teams will play more on the road first, and some more at home.

As we saw with the HL non-con standings, home-court is a better advantage if you're a better team.  For instance, it didn't do a whole lot for UIC in the non-con, as we saw.  And Wright St still has yet to lose at home, although it might help if they played a team with more than four people on their roster.  (And they have yet to win on the road, by the way.)  But it's still important.

These standings give one point for winning on the road, and subtract one for losing at home.  That is why CSU is in first place--because not only did they win on the road, they've still got all 8 home games left, as you can see.  And while Green Bay is technically in first place, they still have all 8 road games left.  But so does Milwaukee--and they've already lost at home.  Therefore, even though the "official" standings have them third--because of why?  Non-conference wins?  How do they help you win the HL?  Oh, that's right, they don't.

Here's where the league really stands after the first batch of games.  Sorted by the road "points" system, then by overall wins, then by games played (the fewer the better because more chances to win).

Below the standings, you see the conference game by game results.  Reading across finds you the result of the game for the home team (in the rows) versus the away team (in the columns).

I'll keep this updated throughout the year, if you find it useful.

[vu72]

Apostle, you missed your true calling.  Not sure what that is but I think is may be as our new defensive coordinator analyzing what a player scratching a certain area prior to certain plays indicates.  Kind of like Money Ball.  Valpo needs you!  Lot's of folks can play the organ/guitar/piano/ banjo etc, and do it with grace and spirituality.  Few can put colors and numbers into charts like you!!   

[chef]

Brad Stevens has Drew Cannon as his numbers guru. I think Apostle could do the same for another team/program.

[HC]

Pretty colors

[EddieCabot]

I really like the +/- system presented by LAA ... it's something I've looked at for several years.  It is especially useful for the Horizon this year where the teams appear very balanced and home court advantage is often (so far, at least) a big impact on outcomes.  Well done.

[LaPorteAveApostle]

Apostle, you missed your true calling.

  My wife might disagree!

I think Apostle could do the same for another team/program.

Well, only for Valpo.  I couldn't use my powers for evil.
(Hey, chef [& STL & zvillehaze], I saw Jeff Furlin yesterday.  He was down on vacation with his saintly mother and daughter Gia!)

Pretty colors

You know, it does make everything better.  It looks like I put more thought into it, doesn't it?

Well done.

Thank you.  Means a lot. If you've been thinking of this for a while, I'm sure you have ideas to improve, if you care to share.

Thanks all of you for the nice feedback.  This is my second-proudest day on the board!

[LaPorteAveApostle]

It is especially useful for the Horizon this year where the teams appear very balanced and home court advantage is often (so far, at least) a big impact on outcomes.

Yeah, great point!  That is what prompted me to do it this year, because, with all apologies to UWGB, it does look wide open.

[EddieCabot]

It is especially useful for the Horizon this year where the teams appear very balanced and home court advantage is often (so far, at least) a big impact on outcomes.

Yeah, great point!  That is what prompted me to do it this year, because, with all apologies to UWGB, it does look wide open.

Agreed.  It points out that even though UWGB is 2-0 and YSU is 0-2, there's not much separation because neither team has either a.) lost at home, or b.) won on the road, so no blood has been drawn.

What your tie-breaker ranking does is recognize that if YSU plays their next two games at home and UWGB plays their next two on the road, UWGB is in a better position because YSU has to win both to remain at 0 points (and could fall to -1 or -2 with losses), while UWGB could remain at 0 by losing both (and could go to +1 or +2 with wins). 

As for suggestions, I dug through your tie-breaking approach and think it makes sense.  Logically, I arrived there by a slightly different path, but we got to the same place.  Kudos for taking the time to lay this out in such detail ... I think this will be useful as the season progresses. 

[crusaderjoe]

Therefore, even though the "official" standings have them third--because of why?  Non-conference wins?  How do they help you win the HL?  Oh, that's right, they don't.

IMO, this statement may or may not be true depending upon the strength of overall conference parity in any given year since RPI can potentially be used as a tournament seeding tie-breaker.

See:  http://www.horizonleague.org/blog/horizon-league-mens-basketball-tournament-scenarios-tie-breakers?page=8&sport_id=2

[LaPorteAveApostle]

Well, true and good--I thought about that, but it's not necessarily true in that it's RPI, not non-con wins, per se.

I mean, look at Oakland (3 D1 non-con wins against 10 losses; RPI 149) vs. Wright State (twice as many wins; RPI almost twice Oakland's). 

Extreme example to be sure, and winning of course affects (not effects) RPI.  But as we've seen, "wins" and "RPI" have a facebook relationship set to "complicated".

[valpotx]

Speaking of RPI, look at the Summit at #13 now!  I never thought that I would see the day when the HL was only 1 spot higher than the Summit.  If they keep that up, the SL may pass the HL next year while adding ORU (if they don't lose anyone).

http://www.realtimerpi.com/rpi_conf_Men.html

[LaPorteAveApostle]

Well, it never fails to amaze me there can be disparate results when theoretically everyone is using the same formula, but the official RPI (used as tiebreaker in the HL for example, as alluded to above) says we're 13, they 14.

(It appears the interloper there is the American Athletic Conference, which isn't even included in the "Real time rpi" list...)

RPIForecast has the Summit at 18 (and us at 14) by season's end.

[a3uge]

Speaking of RPI, look at the Summit at #13 now!  I never thought that I would see the day when the HL was only 1 spot higher than the Summit.  If they keep that up, the SL may pass the HL next year while adding ORU (if they don't lose anyone).

http://www.realtimerpi.com/rpi_conf_Men.html

Lol North Dakota State is 21 RPI and UNO is 70. That's a clear case of RPI not passing the smell test. RPI Forecast has the two leagues at 13 and 14 with, of course, a more accurate expected RPI from UND and UNO.

[LaPorteAveApostle]

Interesting game in Ohio tonight.  With 9:03 left, Hain scored.  No one else for YSU would score--except for Kendrick Perry, of course, who got the last 12 YSU points, including 5 in the last 38 seconds to turn a 66-62 loss into a 67-66 win (traditional 3 point play FTW).

Wow.  On the strength of which, I give you week 2:

The main difference from the actual standings this week is that Milwaukee is overrated there on the strength of their home losses.

Added a "points per game" to balance out teams that have played different amounts of games.  blah blah etc.

[LaPorteAveApostle]

Obviously, WSU lucked into a weakened CSU team at precisely the right time.

VU @ YSU will do a lot to sort out contender/pretender status...

[LaPorteAveApostle]

This may surprise some people...maybe most.



Valparaiso is in 2nd place on the strength of their road win this week.  The fact that they looked bad in Cleveland--have you considered that everyone looks bad in Cleveland?  (In general, not in basketball.  That's why people take their talents to Florida, LBJ and everyone's grandparents included).

So, if Valpo in 2nd bothers you, consider this:  if they lose to UWGBPHX on Wed, then they'll fall out of 2nd on my chart (because number of games played).

But if/when they WIN then they'll also be in 2nd place on the actual standings as well (pending whatever other people are doing between now and then.)

Unfortunately, even though we reach the halfway point this week, we begin the second half before all teams have completed the first half, so it's really hard to tell.

I added a rank, last week's rank, and put the dates of this week's upcoming games in there, because that's helpful, I think.

[LaPorteAveApostle]

So here's an interesting look:



You'll notice two games not counted yet.

Because with the YSU @ Oakland game tonight, we can look at EXACTLY the moment when all the teams hit the halfway point, and compare apples to apples.

[LaPorteAveApostle]

Milwaukee will think they're better than this, because the real standings say so, but they're not.  They are among the league's "Weak Five".

Reason:  they only have 2 home games left, one of which is against Valpo.  On the flip side, they have four games on the road, so if they're actually among the league's best they will have the chance to prove it.

On the flip side of that, they have to go to WSU, YSU, and GB. So good luck with that.

"All" that has to happen for Valpo to win:  win out, and have GB lose on the road to CSU.    24% possible, I say.

RPIForecast says 0.43% though   Almost 11% that GB wins out; 0.91 that VU does.

But wouldn't that make up for 2012's end?

Game of the WEEK:   CSU @ WSU.  Winner moves up in great position; loser pretty much NO BYE FOR YOU.

ALSO DEAR GOD MAKE THE BAD MAN STOP HITTING ME GAME OF THE WEAK: UIC @ GB.  RPIF says UIC has a 5% chance; lose by 18.

[LaPorteAveApostle]

STOP THE PRESSES: CHANGE AT THE TOP


This won't make UWGB fans happy--or Harry Potter fans--but there's been a change in THE ORDER OF THE PHOENIX.*

Of course, the actual standings won't reflect that.  Not yet. We'll see next Saturday, because whoever wins will be hosting the tournament.

But based on their 5 road wins, and GB's stunning loss to rival UWM, Cleveland State is your new leader.

And if you think that is far-fetched, well the other part of the standings bear me out.  CSU only has to go on the road once more, and GB only gets one more home game.  (Curiously, each one is against Valpo...)

So, yeah, whoever wins GB @ CSU ... wins.  (Is there such a thing as a double-KO-loss?  because that would suit Valpo pretty well.)

Other thoughts--Can you imagine if UWM HADN'T dropped 3 home games already?

Detroit is officially out of the basement--and can keep Oakland there--this Friday.

How is Wright State like, done with their schedule already?



*Dumbledore is straight.  You're welcome.

[Pathfinder]

shouldn't wvu be ahead of you? Each has 2 road games left, but wsu has already pocketed 2 extra home wins.

I like this concept, tho. Fun feature.

[LaPorteAveApostle]

shouldn't wvu be ahead of you?

they are ahead of us, because they're in the Big 12

Seriously, it's sorted first for points per game played, then by fewest losses, then by fewest games (because more opportunities for wins).  Like hockey's "game-in-hand".  Assuming you meant WSU, they can't do better than 10-6, while we can be 12-4.  So it's first based on performance, and then on potential.

Thanks for the feedback!!  It means a lot, especially from a Detroit fan I've probably cheesed off at some point

[LaPorteAveApostle]

well, that was over quicker than a Bobby Petrino bike ride.

GB in the driver's seat.  and for the first time, my standings and the real ones are identical.  but that was bound to happen--decreasing disparity (or despairity if you're a Flame) and finally UNION.

but i'm still going to call it More Accurate^TM because that's my thing now.  if you don't like it you can kiss my asymptote.

For the first time, a projection of the tournament bracket.  Can't decide how to break the UDM YSU tie, but it's largely irrelevant.

Interesante, no?

[LaPorteAveApostle]

So Detroit had a good week.  4-way logjam in the HL's eyes.  Though DET is higher in my standings, that's offset by their having the 2nd hardest last 2 games (to Valpo's, of course).  This is the "Toughness" column, figured by taking the opponent's rank, and subtracting one for road games and adding one for home.  Low score wins.  Well, "wins".

The 3-way currently breaks down as depicted in lower RH corner.  In a 4-way logjam, it would be (at this point)
5) Milwaukee (3-2, beat GB)
6) Oakland (3-2)
7) Det (2-3, beat Valpo)
8) YSU

Of these, Milwaukee has the best card (beat GB) and the easiest road.  But Detroit, as hard as they have it, are coming on strong and have both games at home, something no other HL team can say.

That's about it.

[LaPorteAveApostle]

Just so everybody knows, the pretty colors are coming back for a new season.

But, since Cleveland State was the only team to pick up a road win--and that against UIC--I'm going to wait until next week when there will be more development.

A major problem this year (as far as predicting) is that last year the schedule was symmetrical--everyone played everyone else once, and then the second half of the season was as the first, just at the other team's place.

For whatever reason, this year is not.  Which might make this more useful, and it might not.

We'll see!  Enjoy being at the top, Cleve.  Other people will get to go to UIC too, you know...

[LaPorteAveApostle]

Well, here we go.  But don't get mad at me.  (At least not for this!)



This is reflecting the fact that our 3 home wins don't earn us any points in this system--we were only holding serve, as it were.  Plus we've played 4 games, while the other teams with 0 road wins have only played 3, and could do better given their game-in-hand.  What you could take me to task on is that the first sort is by PPG, obviously, but the second GP.  You might make the argument that it should go by 'most road games remaining', since that is the way to earn points.  But since home losses are the only way to LOSE points, I feel that distinction is balanced out.  Anyway, here it is!   We've got plenty of opportunities to score points in the next couple weeks.  It does worry me some that we have the fewest home games remaining at this point, but we're better than most of the rest of the league, home or away.

I leave you with the fun round-robin result thus far.