Not all they're cracked up to be...

[wh]

Commissioner from the Detroit board has conducted a very interesting mini-analysis as to whether current HL players (including ours) who transferred from major conferences have lived up to original expectations that we the fans had for them.  His conclusion is that many/most have not.  Here it is:

Horizon Transfers
Postby Commissioner » Mon Feb 24, 2014 12:59 pm

Picking up on a discussion that's currently in the scoreboard thread, and that comes up more or less whenever someone riding the pine at a Big 10 school looks to transfer, I thought I'd look at Horizon transfers in.

Sometimes, I think, we are all too quick to assume that if a guy transfers "down" from a major conference, he'll have impact in the Horizon. Not always so. Here are current Horizon players who transferred "down" from top 10 conferences:

Carlton Brundidge, Soph. Detroit: After riding the pine as a freshman at Michigan, Brundidge has been an important part of a very average team at Detroit. Playing well in spots, he has hardly dominated and lost his starting spot. Key stats: 22.2 mpg; 7.6 ppg, 1.6 apg.

Trey Lewis, Soph. Cleveland State: Lewis was a regular part of the Penn State rotation as a freshman, averaging 19 minutes and 5.6 points per game. At CSU, Lewis has emerged as a key player and a possible second-team all conference selection this year. Key Stats: 31 mpg, 13.4 ppg, 3.8 rpg, 3.4 apg.

Bobby Capobianco, Senior, Valparaiso: Capobianco was a role player at Indiana, averaging 2.3 points and 2.6 rebounds in 12 minutes as a freshman, but seeing his playing time cut in half as a soph. At Valpo, he has been an important part of the team's rotation, but has not been able to crack the starting lineup (he's started 5 times this year) or get 20 minutes per game. Last year he averaged 5.9 points and 4.5 rebounds in 16 minutes per game. With Valpo's top 6 players graduating, he might have expected to be a key player this year. However, he's averaged just 18 minutes per game, with 6.4 points and 3.9 rebounds.

Moussa Gueye, Senior, Valparaiso: A post graduate transfer from Alabama, Gueye was a starter last year on the Tide. A lot of Valpo fans assumed a starting 7' center from Alabama would be dominant in the Horizon. But he was probably the worst starter in the SEC, or close to it. He actually averaged just 15 minutes per game, with 1.4 points, 3.9 rebounds, and 1.4 blocks. At Valpo, he began the season as the starting center but lost that job by the end of December to junior Vashil Fernandez. He is among the league leaders in blocks and gives Valpo a presence, but his numbers aren't really much different than those of Detroit's Ugochukwu Njoku. Key Stats: 16 mpg; 4.7 ppg, 5.2 rpg, 2.1 blocks per game.

Keith Carter, Soph., Valparaiso: Carter transferred from St. Louis and joined Valpo in December. Valpo was weak at the point so Carter's arrival was much anticipated. He started just 3 games, however, with those three among Valpo's worst of the season. Freshman Lexus Williams finally emerging as Valpo's point man, with Carter coming off the bench. Key Stats: 18 mpg, 5.7 ppg, 2.0 apg.

LaVonte Dority, Senior, Valparaiso: A mid-season transfer from South Florida who joined Valpo last December. Dority had averaged just 6 minutes as a freshman as USF. As a soph he was averaging 15 minutes, 3 points, and 1.8 assists before transferring. After joining the Crusaders in December 2012, Dority averaged 21 minutes and 8.6 points last year. But he had more turnovers than assists and shot just 37% overall and 31% from three. This year, however, he has emerged as the team's leading scorer and a probable first or second team all-conference player. Key Stats: 31 mpg, 16.6 ppg, 2.6 apg, .435 3p%.

Chrishawn Hopkins, Junior, Wright State: I don't quite know if Hopkins counts - he was already a Horizon League player when he transferred from Butler. But at least a few pre-season publications predicted him for all-conference, almost certainly on the simply theory that "hey, he played at Butler, of course he'll dominate the Horizon now." Hopkins indeed played on Butler's 2011 Final Four squad and its 2012 team. As a freshman in 2011, he saw limited action, appearing in 21 games and averaging 6 minutes per game. As a sophomore shooting guard in 2012 he averaged 9.1 ppg in 23 minutes per game. He joined Wright State this past December and, though a regular in the rotation, has started just 2 of 18 games. Key Stats: 21 mpg, 5.7 ppg, 2.2 apg.

Duke Mondy, Senior, Oakland: The Duke was a starter at Providence in the 2011 season. At OU, he has been a very valuable player, though second fiddle to Travis Bader. Key Stats: 2013: 12 ppg, 5.1 apg, 4.4 rpg, 3.0 steals per game. 2014: 11.8 ppg, 4.5 apg, 5.3 rpg, 3.1 spg.

Tommie McCune, Junior, Oakland: Played sparingly at West Virginia before being forced out of the program. Has had disciplinary problems at OU, but began this season as a starter. Was disappointing however, and eventually lost the starting job. Key Stats: 17 mpg, 6.1 ppg, 3 rpg.

Ralph Hill, Junior, Oakland: A Dayton transfer coming off injuries, HIll was a non-factor at Dayton and was even more of a non-factor for most of this season for OU. However, he has started the last 3 games, averaging 13 points and 3.3 rebounds, and now looks like a key part of OU's lineup. On the season he has averaged just 6 minutes and 2.2 ppg.

Steve McWhorter, Junior, Milwaukee: I'm not sure if McWhorter quite fits this list, as he is a transfer from the MVC's Indiana State, only a marginal step "down." At ISU he was a starting guard. He's started for Milwaukee all year and done a solid if unspectacular job. Key Stats: 34 mpg, 8.3 ppg, 3.8 apg.. 1.6 spg.

Kelsey Barlow, Senior, UIC: A former Big 10 All-Freshman player, Barlow was a regular part of Purdue's rotation, averaging 8.3 points and 3.7 rebounds in 24 minutes per game in 2012. He has been UIC's key player this year, a very good Horizon player, but no more than that. Key Stats: 14.6 ppg, 4.9 rpg, 4.1 apg.

Looking at this list, It seems to me that for the most part, players who are not seeing much action at a "big time" school don't come in and dominate the Horizon. Of course, maybe this year's crop is an anomaly. But guys who didn't do much in the high majors may tend not to do much after transferring. Guys who were rotation players, however - Barlow, Mondy, Lewis - seem much more likely to do well in the Horizon. But it's likely that none of the League's 10 all-conference players this year will be transfers, though Lewis, Barlow, or Mondy all could gain 2nd team honors. Guys who had a rep for trouble, such as Mondy and McCune, seem to continue having some difficulties (though I'm not aware of any issues with Barlow at UIC).

Anyway, it's just one season, a small sample, so I wouldn't put too much stock in this review. But it does suggest that merely having been recruited by a high major conference out of high school doesn't mean you can dominate a mid-major. And the caliber of play in the Horizon is pretty good.

Let's hope that Brundidge can step it up in the next two years, and that Pat Ack proves the facile shallowness of this review.

[LaPorteAveApostle]

I was thinking about this the other day, at least in the context of Capo.

I think what happened here is what happens in a lot of cases, actually.  Clearly he was an exceptional talent in high school; that's how you get ESPN writing articles about you; that's how you get offers from the likes of IU, Marquette, WVU, St. Louis, etc.

But think back to the tallest kid in 1st or 2nd grade.  (If you're a guy, you easily remember this.  In my case, it was Kenny Cleveland.)  Was he the tallest by the time you graduated HS?  Probably not.

What about the center on your jr high b-ball team (Kevin Pullins, our only 6-footer)? Was he the center in HS? Maybe, but not always.

What about the class nerd?  The smartest kid in your grade school class, I'm betting, was almost never your valedictorian.

And everyone remembers the first girl in their jr high that developed.  Wasn't the last, thankfully.

What I'm getting at is that kids peak at different times.  Sometimes there are just plain supernatural talents, like a LeBron or a Clowney, that don't seem to have a ceiling, sure.

But the rest of us surge ahead, and then people catch up.  Whereas Capo was a couple standard deviations above the typical HS player then, other people had growth spurts, other people had skills develop, etc.  It's not that he wasn't working or developing his skills! 

Just, the world catches up with all of us at some point.  It's nothing bad. 

And I think that is what is going to make college basketball (and football) even more fun in the future, for, as the race to identify the latest talents earlier and earlier accelerates, coaches are going to pick an Apple stock (already so high that there's not a lot of places to go save down) and leave a mid-major to get a piece of Kakao (for example) that will blow up right when they need it to.  It'll level the playing field.

I'm really glad Capo is here, too, btw.

[classof2014]

Really good article. The only bugaboo I have is that he included players that started mid-season, I really think both Hopkins and our KC shouldn't have been on the list quite yet. It's incredibly difficult to just jump into a lineup mid-season on a team you've never played for.

I was never expecting guys who transferred from the big-name programs to be the best in the league. If they were dominant players in the B1G, they'd be dominant in the HL. Take Capo for example, he clearly wasn't B1G material, and knew he wouldn't see much playing time. So he transferred out of Indiana. He's been a good player for Valpo in his two years and without a doubt has one of the best attitudes on the team, I thought he'd be a starter and have more significant stats. Typically there's a reason for somebody to transfer "down."

I really think KC will become one of the best in the HL, but that's a different story. In general, JUCO type players, or guys who transfer "up" are more likely to make a really big impact on a program, than a transfer "down."

[vu72]

Well written.  He did miss on his opinion of Dority.  Early on he thought Dority could be first or second team and then at the end thought none of the transfers would be first or second team. Dority should be a first teamer and wouldn't be shocked to se Barlow as a second teamer.

I'm with 2014 on the mid-term transfer guys.  Dority took time to adjust last year (though still gaining sixth man of the year award) and I expect the same from Carter.  Wouldn't shock me to see Keith on the all conference list next year.

[LaPorteAveApostle]

In general, JUCO type players, or guys who transfer "up" are more likely to make a really big impact on a program, than a transfer "down."

[historyman]

I tend to see the transfer down as a correction. The recruiters got it wrong, took a chance, whatever and the student/athlete said it's worth a try. Too bad in many cases the NCAA deems losing playing time as punishment for for those decisions. 

[classof2014]

I tend to see the transfer down as a correction. The recruiters got it wrong, took a chance, whatever and the student/athlete said it's worth a try. Too bad in many cases the NCAA deems losing playing time as punishment for for those decisions. 

It's an absolute shame that KC really is gonna play the equivalent of 2 1/2 years due to the NCAA. The head coach who recruited him died. And the interim, now head coach, had different plans. To me he should've been eligible immediately starting this season and as a freshman no less. He only played in 5 games, I believe, at SLU.

The NCAA really needs to take a good long look at the transfer rules. I understand sometimes sitting out a year to discourage it but losing a year and a half of playing time because of NCAA rules and regulation is simply ridiculous.

[LaPorteAveApostle]

Although, isn't it still possible he could be granted the extra year?  Injury redshirts are often given later (like Devin Gardner's at UM)...

[historyman]

Although, isn't it still possible he could be granted the extra year?  Injury redshirts are often given later (like Devin Gardner's at UM)...

Yes, it is possible for the NCAA to grant Keith Carter another year of eligibility in 2016 (which would be for 2016-17). It would depend on interviews the NCAA lawyers have had with people involved with his situation at Saint Louis and any other physical evidence that can be gathered from KC's time at SLU.

[StlVUFan]

But think back to the tallest kid in 1st or 2nd grade.  (If you're a guy, you easily remember this.  In my case, it was Kenny Cleveland.)  Was he the tallest by the time you graduated HS?  Probably not.

Why does that name ring such a bell for me?  Hmmm....