Turnover Trend

[Chairback]

With the amount of turnovers we had during the first half of this game it got me wondering where we have ranked in the past 5-6 years in turnovers per game.  You can't help but notice a trend upwards (worse) since Bryce took over.  The theory of us being "young" doesn't hold water as last year's experienced team was plagued by turnovers also.  I actually think last year's team underachieved greatly due to the frequency of turnovers. 

If Bryce is wanting to take this program to the next level as he says he has to figure this out.  We are giving too many possessions away to win meaningful games.  No matter how good our FG% is we keeping giving away scoring chances and we are losing because of it.  Are we running the right offense?  Do we not focus on the right things in practice? Are we trying to play at a pace we shouldn't be playing at?

2013-2014 332 out of 334 96%  thru 2/27/14 
2012-2013 245 out of 345 71%
2011-2012 238 out of 338 70%
2010-2011 195 out of 336 58%
2009-2010 175 out of 334 52.3%
2008-2009 225 out of 330 77.7%
2007-2008  83 out of 338 24.5%

Source is from NCAA's ranking summary site.  http://web1.ncaa.org/stats/StatsSrv/ranksummary

[valpotx]

Thank you for these stats.  It helps me with the argument I have been making that this is the worst team I have watched in my 15 years of Valpo fandom.  Even though we lost a lot in 2009-2010, I equate my rankings based on how frustrating we are to watch.  I would rather see us playing fundamental basketball and missing shots, than throwing the ball away. Obviously, winning is great by itself, but winning ugly is not enjoyable to me either.

[DY219]

I won't miss this group of seniors. Dority is alright...pretty selfish though. Coleman, moussa, and Bobby are all below average in my book.

Sent from my NX008HD8G using Tapatalk

[classof2014]

I would imagine the turnover numbers will decrease. I decided to look at how often each player, excluding Chadwick and Davidson, per 40 minutes of playing time.

Gueye - 1 turnover per 7.33 minutes of play
Carter - 1/9.83 mins
Williams - 1/11.61
Capobianco - 1/12.39
Dority 1/14.63
Yeo 1/14.81
Peters 1/14.93
Adekoya 1/15.23
Fernandez 1/17.56
Coleman 1/18.09

I think the stats speak for themselves. 3 of the top 5 in amount of time between turnovers are seniors. Also the worst culprit was Moussa and Vashil who plays the same position no less, was one of our most consistent players in this aspect of the game. There was only one senior, who was in the top 5 in not turning over the ball. I really think we'll see these numbers get better since some of our worst offenders were seniors.

[valpotx]

Is it true that there are only 334 teams now?  I wouldn't think 11 teams left D-1 after last year

[wh]

Is it true that there are only 334 teams now?  I wouldn't think 11 teams left D-1 after last year

According to Statsheet.com Valpo has the 13th most TOPG of 351 teams in D-1. For the past 10 years:

13-14 13th
12-13 96th
11-12 109th
10-11 148th
09-10 169th
08-09 82nd
07-08 254th
06-07 75th
05-06 172nd
04-05 111th

In any event, Chairback's original point remains the same - turnovers have become a trademark of Valpo men's basketball. 

[LaPorteAveApostle]

I don't have time to look up my post on the subject, but while your stats are nice, they don't tell the full story.

The stat to look at is not TO per game, or TO per minute played.  It's TO%--that is, the percentage of your possessions that end in a turnover.

That's apples-to-apples, and I assure you the picture is worse still there.

[wh]

The stat to look at is not TO per game, or TO per minute played.  It's TO%--that is, the percentage of your possessions that end in a turnover.

I think you will find that in comparing Valpo to the rest of the college basketball world over multiple seasons, the relative difference between turnovers/game vs. turnovers:possessions is almost nil.

In any event, Chairback's original point remains the same - turnovers have become a trademark of Valpo men's basketball. 

[bbtds]

That's apples-to-apples, and I assure you the picture is worse still there.

Speaking of apples I'd love some dough filled with an apple based fruit-filling for dessert today. Oh, blimey, that is just another turnover! Oh well. It couldn't hurt to have just one more turnover.






or could it?

[oklahomamick]

turnovers have become a trademark of Valpo men's basketball.

I agree and said this in the chat room yesterday while watching the game.  Another trademark of valpo basketball is perimeter shooting.  We have always shot well from 3 point line but in the second half yesterday, only had 4 attempts. 

That leads me to say, against teams who high pressure at or beyond the arch, we struggle.  WSU, CSU.  The only teams that swept us. 

[justducky]

According to Statsheet.com Valpo has the 13th most TOPG of 351 teams in D-1. For the past 10 years:13-14 13th12-13 96th11-12 109th10-11 148th09-10 169th08-09 82nd07-08 254th06-07 75th05-06 172nd04-05 111th

The assist to turnover ratios for Lexus (1.4/1) and Keith (1.17/1) are not good but both are essentially freshman and should make great improvements. For comparison purposes only Buggs' senior season number was about 1.45 to 1 and that was easily the best for his career.

Two seasons somewhat went against the trend. In 09-10 we had a return of always good 5th yr  McPherson who delivered at 1.65 to 1 and a freshman Kurth who came in at 1.5 to 1. What did Wood do that season? Less than 1 assist for every turnover.  07-08 was the high water mark for excellence with McPherson and Jarryd Loyd providing their reliable play while some guy named Jake Diebler came in at 2.71 to 1. I am not sure if VU has ever had another player in that range. What were Sykes numbers?

In response to Chairbacks' questions I think that good teams force us to play to our weaknesses by taking away the things we prefer to do. Next year as a much more experienced group we should move dramatically in a positive direction (nowhere but up from here). It is also obvious that any team that tries to play the modern game with less than 4 solid 3-point shooters on the floor all the time is at a decided disadvantage.

[LaPorteAveApostle]

I'd say it's different enough.  PLUS when you combine it with our DISMALLY AWFUL takeaway %:

(I refuse to say we're "13th" because that sounds like a good thing.  Just remember there are 351 D1 teams, or 350 plus Chicago State.)

TURNOVER RATE:
2014: 22.1, 345th nationally (tied for 7th worst)

TURNOVERS FORCED:
2014:  15.0, 306th nationally

will update when i find where i can get the earlier numbers.

earlier rant here:  http://www.valpofanzone.com/forum/index.php?topic=1720.msg41191#msg41191
and note TO% has gone UP 3% since then!

[classof2014]

The piece that was really missing from this team was a dominant presence down low on offense. Last year we had KVW who pretty much scored at will in the HL. Vashil made steps in the right direction as the season went on and next year I really think he'll look like a different player.

In many games this season we sorely missed that threat under the basket for high percentage buckets and was really a big reason why this team was so streaky on offense. At times we had issues getting into the lane for those high percentage layups.

[wh]

In response to Chairbacks' questions I think that good teams force us to play to our weaknesses by taking away the things we prefer to do. Next year as a much more experienced group we should move dramatically in a positive direction (nowhere but up from here). It is also obvious that any team that tries to play the modern game with less than 4 solid 3-point shooters on the floor all the time is at a decided disadvantage.

No question that conference opponents discovered our weaknesses during the 1st half and exploited them in the 2nd. One example is how much space defenders have been giving Jubril. They are giving him wide open looks from 12-15' out on the baseline because they have learned he is not a scoring threat from that distance.  I'm guessing that's the biggest reason he's been getting less playing time lately. That's the difference between us and a team like CSU. You don't dare sluff off anyone on their team because everyone is a scoring threat. It also makes double teaming the low post that much more difficult.

[HC]

That and his terrible decision making when he passes the ball.

[Chairback]

I just don't buy the theory of next year should be better in regards to TO's.  Better = acceptable.  It's been bad for awhile, not just this year.  Something is not right.

TX made a comment about it being one of the worst teams to watch.  I have found this to be true also due to the constant turnovers.  It's really hard to watch them play. At the start of this year I have only missed 3 games in 25 years (one being the UNC Wilmington game with Brett Blizzard whom I wanted to see).  I have not gone to 4 out of the last 5 home games.  You can predict this team's moves very easily most of the game.  Before a pass or drive you can call the turnover before it happens.

I will miss Dority as I think he is one tough kid and he has carried this team this season.  He has to create shots on his own a lot of times when the offense stalls frequently.

I hate to say it but we will be one and done in this tourney. 

[Valpofan00]

I hate to say it but we will be one and done in this tourney. 

Dammnnnn that hurts 

[LaPorteAveApostle]

I hate to say it but we will be one and done in this tourney. 

...you do know we're playing UIC, right?

You know, the ones from FLAMEOUT 2014?

The ones who haven't won a D1 home game in nearly a year? (And won't for another 8 months, at least?)

The team that we beat by an average 20 points this year?

The team Bryce Drew's never lost to?

The team we haven't lost to IN FIVE YEARS?

I mean, there are more valid ways to express your feelings of disappointment about a team in a transitional year.

[LaPorteAveApostle]

Let me just ask another question...

YOU WENT TO ALL THE GAMES IN 08-09 BUT NOT THIS ONE?

What, were you going for your Fandom Endurance Badge that year?

I would think this year is far more entertaining...starting with the fact you don't know whether Team Jekyll or Team Hyde will show up.

(Speaking of which, I'm going to go back to the BPI thread.)

[StlVUFan]

I'm with LaPorte on this one.  This year's team was far more exciting and interesting to watch than the 2008-2009 team.  Not even close.

For one thing, that team got the 9 seed and was unsurprisingly one and done.  This year's team got the 4 seed and should make it to the semis.

[FWalum]

That and his terrible decision making when he passes the ball.

Interesting that you say that about Adekoya since he had better numbers in assists (more) and turnovers (less) per minute played than Peters.

[chef]

Of the non guards, Jubril has the best assist to turnover ratio on the team. Plus when you consider that about half his turnovers where on illegal screens, it's hard to make an argument that he makes terrible decisions when passing the ball.

[HC]

Idk, seems lately he hasn't played real well (I suppose that could be said about several people). Overall I'm very happy with his play and am excited for his future here.

3/4 games he has had more turnovers then assists. We haven't played real well these last 4 games.....

[LaPorteAveApostle]

I'm with LaPorte on this one. 

you say that like it's rare

[Smj]

I'm with LaPorte on this one. 

you say that like it's rare

Oh....   Come on - everyone else is wonder how much you paid him.....