3/18/14 - 7:05pm CT: Valpo vs. Columbia Game Thread - First Round CIT

[talksalot]

Mr. Bartow's East Tennessee State just accepted a CIT bid....  might be fun to play them again in the ARC in a few weeks.

[78crusader]

They also won 19 games and played a very good Harvard team close in an OT loss.   You guys are underestimating the Ivy League and the geek squad schools.  I have to wonder if the Crusader will be up for this.

usc4valpo is dead on.  We better bring it or we'll end up with an embarrassing loss.  This is a good team. 

Paul

[FWalum]

They also won 19 games and played a very good Harvard team close in an OT loss.

I do think we are underestimating them, but if we play the compare game the schizophrenic Crusaders only lost to #18 St. Louis by 2 and beat UCF by 15, which almost took down #13 Cincinnati last night (lets not talk about the return game).  If our bigs can at least be a threat and keep the pressure off of the perimeter then hopefully the good VU team will show up.  I'll leave the coaching to Bryce but would love to see some more pick and roll stuff with Peters and Adekoya on the roll and down on the block.

[gamelord]

I wonder if Keith Carter will be playing.

[classof2014]

I wonder if Keith Carter will be playing.

I believe he'll be playing. He's been one of the few who has actually shown some energy at the end of the season. He made a big mistake that cost us the opportunity to get back in the game. I'm sure sitting out the rest of the game and watching Milwaukee pull away was punishment enough.

Jordan is sitting out because he has shown a lack of enthusiasm towards the end of the year. Keith has had an abundance of enthusiasm and only had one boneheaded play towards the end of the year. He has shown a will to win, he's gonna go be playing on Tuesday,

[LaPorteAveApostle]

I wonder if Keith Carter will be playing.

if you're referring to possibly getting suspended because of defending his, ahem, manhood, bryce and valpo aren't suspending him, and apparently neither is the HL.

[VULB#62]

Columbia won't be nervous - they will be playing at the ARC, not Rupp Arena or Pauley Pavillion.  They also won 19 games and played a very good Harvard team close in an OT loss.   You guys are underestimating the Ivy League and the geek squad schools.  I have to wonder if the Crusader will be up for this.

Gotta agree. The top three in the Ivy usually match up well with any league competitor and their #1 team, usually gets at least past the first round, and often the second round of the NCAA.  BTW great article about Princeton/Georgetown in SI this week -- the premiss of the article is that by losing to John Thompson's Hoyas by only 1 point on a blocked shot in the last second and keeping Alonzo Mourning in check, Princeton saved the NCAA tournament field from be being reduced in the future and therefore kept it open for us mid-majors. Good nostalgic reading.

[vu72]

Columbia won't be nervous - they will be playing at the ARC, not Rupp Arena or Pauley Pavillion.  They also won 19 games and played a very good Harvard team close in an OT loss.   You guys are underestimating the Ivy League and the geek squad schools.  I have to wonder if the Crusader will be up for this.

I agree that their record is very solid, notwithstanding their 33 point loss to the same Harvard team they played so well against.  They played St. Johns close and also played Michigan State close (but so did Oakland).

If we get a good crowd the ARC can be very intimidating but being an Ivy League team, they are used to playing in smaller venues.  Their size is young and thin.  We will need to pound it on the inside.  I see a 10 point win, 68-58

[FWalum]

A little off topic, but it really seems obvious to me that we have gotten a rep for this illegal screen thing and refs must be concentrating on this during our games.  For the life of me I can't see any difference between the way our bigs set screens and what I have been seeing in the tournament games I have been watching this week.  Last night watching the UCF Cincinnati game Cincinnati's bigs were moving on EVERY screen and only 1 call.  If we had looked like that Moussa would have fouled out in the first half.  I think we have to do a better job of going shoulder to shoulder off the screen but I think the refs have made it a Valpo point of emphasis.  What is the crew makeup like for these CiT games?  Hopefully we get some guys that are not familiar with our supposed reputation.

[a3uge]

Jordan is sitting out because he has shown a lack of enthusiasm towards the end of the year. Keith has had an abundance of enthusiasm and only had one boneheaded play towards the end of the year. He has shown a will to win, he's gonna go be playing on Tuesday,

To be fair, Coleman was crying after the loss to UW-M as he was walking out.

Columbia won't be nervous - they will be playing at the ARC, not Rupp Arena or Pauley Pavillion.  They also won 19 games and played a very good Harvard team close in an OT loss.   You guys are underestimating the Ivy League and the geek squad schools.  I have to wonder if the Crusader will be up for this.

The Ivy League is notorious for low attendance. Last year the league averaged 1,916 per game. Columbia's last game against Harvard drew 2,200. Not that the ARC is going to be crazy, but I'm not sure why you mentioned those gyms when the majority of the time they're playing in empty high school gyms and haven't played against UCLA or Kentucky.

[LaPorteAveApostle]

The top three in the Ivy usually match up well with any league competitor and their #1 team, usually gets at least past the first round, and often the second round of the NCAA.

Er...this is just not true.

Cornell in 2010 and Princeton in 1983 are the only teams since the '80s to win 2 games.

These are the years an Ivy team has even won one: 2013 (Harvard).  Before that:  1998 (Princeton).  Looking at the same period, also '96, '94, and '84.

That's all of 9 wins in the last 33 years.

I think enough people over-inflate the Ivy Ideal anyway--let's not do it in sports, too.

[valporun]

I thought the NCAA had a rule about being ejected from a game that it was an automatic one-game suspension for any player ejected, whether from a flagrant 2, receiving two techs, or being in a fight? I know most times the NCAA lets the conference or school decide on suspensions, as they might know the details of the cause in less time than the NCAA offices take. I mean didn't Bobby have to sit out the game after his Detroit flagrant on the Anderson windmill dunk?

[a3uge]

I thought the NCAA had a rule about being ejected from a game that it was an automatic one-game suspension for any player ejected, whether from a flagrant 2, receiving two techs, or being in a fight? I know most times the NCAA lets the conference or school decide on suspensions, as they might know the details of the cause in less time than the NCAA offices take. I mean didn't Bobby have to sit out the game after his Detroit flagrant on the Anderson windmill dunk?

Bobby played 5 min the next game vs Wright State. Knowing what a thug Bobby is, he probably thugged his way into the lineup illegally.

[VULB#62]

The top three in the Ivy usually match up well with any league competitor and their #1 team, usually gets at least past the first round, and often the second round of the NCAA.

Er...this is just not true.

I think enough people over-inflate the Ivy Ideal anyway--let's not do it in sports, too.

Clarification on that -- should have qualified that with "during the regular season." Did not mean to imply that in March Madness that they were that good and went that deep.  Point is Columbia can be a tough opponent on Tuesday.

[IndyValpo]

They also won 19 games and played a very good Harvard team close in an OT loss.   You guys are underestimating the Ivy League and the geek squad schools.  I have to wonder if the Crusader will be up for this.

usc4valpo is dead on.  We better bring it or we'll end up with an embarrassing loss.  This is a good team. 

Paul

If Columbia is good and they are like 40 and 50 places higher than us in the KenPom and the RPI rankings, why would this be an embarrassing loss?

[vu72]

Just checked the Sagarin rankings.  We are ranked 160 while Columbia is ranked 127.  Their strength of Schedule is 193 while ours is 150.  Their ranking is 75.02 and ours is 72.57, plus the 3.21 home court advantage, making us a net .76 point favorite!!

[historyman]

Just checked the Sagarin rankings.  We are ranked 160 while Columbia is ranked 127.  Their strength of Schedule is 193 while ours is 150.  Their ranking is 75.02 and ours is 72.57, plus the 3.21 home court advantage, making us a net .76 point favorite!!

That's what I was thinking. With this game being played in Valpo this should be a very evenly matched contest. These teams finished in the same places in fairly evenly matched conferences with maybe the Ivy League being slightly ahead . This slight advantage the Ivy has is evened out by Valpo playing at home. So Columbia maybe slightly better this year than Valpo but that is offset by Valpo playing at the ARC. I'm looking forward to what should be a very tightly contested game.

[vu72]

Was just over on the Columbia Fan Forum.  They were wondering why Brown (who apparently also is in the field) got a home game and they didn't.  One of the posters said it was because Brown was willing to pay the $35,000 fee required to host.  So, I'm guessing we paid the $35,000 fee for hosting. I am the Master of the Obvious!

On another note, two of Columbia's guys were voted to all league teams.  Forward Alex Rosenberg was voted to the First Team, while guard Maodo Lo was voted to the Second Team.

[LaPorteAveApostle]

Be interesting to know whether they (CIT) also get a cut of the gate.  Certainly they shouldn't get any more than they already do (what a racket to be in, huh?).   16 1st rd games * 35 K = that's over half a mil up front. 

But say sell 2x more GA than CB and get 3500 paying customers, and it's paid for (well, plus the fee for refs, and talksalot's exorbitant per diem : )

(Who'd have thought an IVY would be too poor to pay for a home game?)

Bottom line for fans--we complain about lousy home schedules, but to get a storied institution in its first postseason since the LBJ admin is pretty entertaining.  There's even more to play for than there was against, say, Mercer.  (Would that FGCU had played as well as we did against them!)

Easy to say when I can see palm trees from where I'm sitting, though.

[VULB#62]

Columbia also beat American U and Stony Brook.  AU is an AQ to the dance this year and Stony Brook lost in the America East Tourney final.

FYI -- Quote from the Columbia website regarding their gym:

Home to Columbia's men's basketball, women's basketball and volleyball teams, the Francis S. Levien Gymnasium opened at the start of the 1974 season. With a capacity of 2,500, Levien Gym is one of the larger facilities in the league.
   

[vu72]

Columbia also beat American U and Stony Brook who are both AQs to the dance this year.

FYI -- Quote from the Columbia website regarding their gym:

Home to Columbia's men's basketball, women's basketball and volleyball teams, the Francis S. Levien Gymnasium opened at the start of the 1974 season. With a capacity of 2,500, Levien Gym is one of the larger facilities in the league.
   

That is amazing when you realize that these Ivy League schools are hardly tiny.  Columbia has over 25,000 students in various undegrad and graduate levels, and over 8,000 just undergrad.

[LaPorteAveApostle]

Now, THERE's a school I might believe students who claim they're in the library on game night.

[LaPorteAveApostle]

Clarification on that -- should have qualified that with "during the regular season." Did not mean to imply that in March Madness that they were that good and went that deep.  Point is Columbia can be a tough opponent on Tuesday.

Still not sure what you meant by 1st and 2nd round?

[Filippo2014]

I follow Columbia very closely. Know their whole team. They are a 3 pt shooting team that runs a motion offense, with plenty of back doors, like the old Princeton offense. They have a couple guys who might emerge in this game, ultimately though, despite a higher RPI and Ken Pom rating, they lose this game on the road to Valpo.

Though one commentator said that a former Iona team was much stronger than this Columbia team, well, comparisons are shaky but Columbia played Manhattan -- recent tournament conquerors of Iona -- played them at home early this year. The game, in fact was all but won, but if you look at the box score, Columbia was up by 3 with 5 seconds remaining and didn't box out well on Jasper free throws, so Manhattan ended up scoring 4 pts in 3 seconds.  Still, Freshman Petrasek just barely missed a game winning tip in at the buzzer.

Also look at RPI, BPI and Ken Pom ratings for Columbia and Valpo. Columbia's is significantly better in all three ratings.  But, I admit, that may not mean much, especially on the road.

To reiterate, Columbia is not very good on the road, which is why I am pretty certain Valpo takes this game by about 10 points.

Also significant is that Columbia's best player, PG Sophomore Grant Mullins missed the last half of the season with a serious concussion. He may or may not play against Valpo, and has not played since February 15th.  In retrospect, he came back too soon and it apparently prolonged his recovery. He may be gone until next season.

That said, someone mentioned the Lions' Alex Rosenberg. "Don't foul 'em" somebody said. It ain't that easy. Rosenberg is like the second coming of NBA legend Dolph Schayes and if you don't know who that is, google the name. Rosenberg is 6-7 and drives to the basket kamikaze like. I don't know who else to compare him to. But you cannot help fouling him. He always lands on the floor. If the shot doesn't go in for an and-one, he goes to the line again and again shooting 2.  Princeton stopped him in his most recent game by denying him any room to get started. They focused on taking him out of the game.  Oh, yeah. Rosenberg can hit the 3. He is over 40% accurate, but not so good on the road.

First Harvard game, Columbia  by most observers won that game. The ref took the winning shot by Rosenberg away with a questionable charging call at  the end of 1st Overtime. You all saw the Jim Boeheim going ballistic on a block/charge call that went against T. J. Fair. This was a little worse and the defender was still moving with his leg up in the air. It should have been basket good with Rosenberg going to the line to make 37 points and a 3 point win. But officially it wasn't.

But on the road, against Harvard a couple weeks later, the Lions did not compete. That is what I fear, despite the strong showing against Michigan State earlier, will happen against Valpo's powerful front line.

Columbia is relatively weak defending the post. Valpo can punish them in the paint. But Columbia will take a good 3 pt shooter out of the game. Conversely, if Columbia gets it going from 3, Valpo will be in trouble. It will be a close game at best, if Columbia achieves its 50% proficiency from 3, which they have done a few times this year, most notably against Yale.

Columbia has a lot of different guys Coach Kyle Smith can insert, who can do things well depending on where Valpo's strength lies. Look out for guys like captain Steve Frankoski, an occasionally maniacal scorer from 3 pt. land. A feast or famine guy, but mostly famine. Another guy, freshman Jeff Coby, a 6-8 leaper who played very well against Michigan State, then got a stress fracture on his foot. He is working his way back, but is very raw. Makes free throws.  6-11 Cory Osetkowski has some nice, but very slowly developing low post moves, and on a good day, will hit a couple 3s.  The guy that will catch Valpo napping is Maodo Lo, from Berlin, Germany. Makes the 3, except on the road, but will drive into the paint to get his scores.  Isaac Cohen, don't let the name fool you, he is a hell of a defender, 6-4 re-bounder and glue guy, who almost always passes up shots.

I know Bryce Drew is a heck of coach. But Kyle Smith is the best Div I coach you never heard of. Trust me. The players love him.

It's all really hard to say, but with Valpo being the home team and having been in the post season recently, I just think Valpo wins. Sorry Lions.

[VULB#62]

Two separate but related thoughts, LAA.  My first thought was that typically during the regular season the top three in the league (usually Penn, Princeton and now Harvard with Amaker) fare competitively with many of their better OOC opponents and in many cases they stray into BCS territory (like Columbia at MSU).  The other thought was that their one AQ (regular season champ cuz they don't do the tournament thing) in many years gets past the 1st round and occasionally the second round in the NCAAs.  Given they are a need-based league and don't offer athletic full-rides, the winning teams  play pretty competitively.