Neutral site for HL Tourney?

[motowntitan]

Why would WSU want to play at Detroit Mercy (unless it's at a bigger venue)?

very winnable road game vs. team that won't be horrible = nice RPI boost

Actually,  It is the return game from the Bracket Busted in 2012-2013.  All return games have to be played by next season.

[LaPorteAveApostle]

of course.  gosh, skipping a year makes you forget like everything.

look out, eastern kentucky.

[milanmiracle]

The tournament format isn't a problem that needs solving.

Thank you. 

Unless your team regularly blows in the tourney, of course.  Then squawking about the format distracts from what a terrible coach you are.

Don't fix something that isn't a problem.

[a3uge]

Speaking of non conference schedules, Detroit will be hosting Wichita State next year.

Why would WSU want to play at Detroit Mercy (unless it's at a bigger venue)?

They're still a Missouri Valley team.

[Kyle321n]

Since SoS came up I figured I'd accumulate the post season OOC SoS's for the conference and run it through the A10's style of scoring the schedule.  I hope you guys enjoy the comparing of what the preseason (RPI was based off the 2013 RPI) led to vs. the post season actually ended up.

Team	Pre-RPI	Pre-Pts	Post-RPI	Post-Pts
Oakland	79.2	2.8	68.1	3.2
Green Bay	192.4	0.8	139.1	1.9
Cleveland State	164.0	1.4	142.5	1.9
Detroit	158.3	1.3	168.1	1.8
Valparaiso	132.3	2.0	166.2	1.4
Youngstown State	174.5	1.7	187.1	1.4
Illinois-Chicago	180.3	1.2	199.7	1.0
Wright State	232.0	0.5	227.3	0.7
Milwaukee	198.7	1.0	208.5	0.7

Morale of the story: Schedule a really tough schedule and you'll probably get a tough end of the season schedule.  Schedule a super easy schedule and you'll win the league.

[a3uge]

Since SoS came up I figured I'd accumulate the post season OOC SoS's for the conference and run it through the A10's style of scoring the schedule.  I hope you guys enjoy the comparing of what the preseason (RPI was based off the 2013 RPI) led to vs. the post season actually ended up.

Team	Pre-RPI	Pre-Pts	Post-RPI	Post-Pts
Oakland	79.2	2.8	68.1	3.2
Green Bay	192.4	0.8	139.1	1.9
Cleveland State	164.0	1.4	142.5	1.9
Detroit	158.3	1.3	168.1	1.8
Valparaiso	132.3	2.0	166.2	1.4
Youngstown State	174.5	1.7	187.1	1.4
Illinois-Chicago	180.3	1.2	199.7	1.0
Wright State	232.0	0.5	227.3	0.7
Milwaukee	198.7	1.0	208.5	0.7

Morale of the story: Schedule a really tough schedule and you'll probably get a tough end of the season schedule.  Schedule a super easy schedule and you'll win the league.

Lol Wright State's average opponents RPI was that of James Madison (232).

[LaPorteAveApostle]

yikes, if you couldn't beat JMU 9 times out of 10...

what's pre- and post-pts?

[LaPorteAveApostle]

thanks for doing this--found this rumination of mine on the other thread--so thanks for bringing it to fruition

I no longer have the time to waste on number-crunching, gentlemen, but remember when assessing schedules at this point in time, I'd have two quotes for you.

One is Solon (in Herodotus):  "Count no man happy before he dies".

The other is Small Print (in everything):  "Past performance is no guarantee of future results."

Thus, a team with Wright on its schedule at this point last year would have been pre-kicking themselves, while a team with Milwaukee feeling pretty good about their non-con.

Obviously at the end of the year things have changed considerably.  It would be interesting to note the end-of-year RPI ratings and see how they compare.

[StlVUFan]

It can be argued that the Milwaukee Panthers this year are the best representative the HL could put forward for the Big Dance, and the way you know that is that they won 4 games in a week, beating Detroit, Valpo, Green Bay, and Wright State

Or it can be plausibly argued that they just had a great week.

The argument is they are the best team to represent the conference precisely because they had a hot week.  It can also be argued that had Green Bay pulled out the win, they would have played Tuesday night without Sykes (as they did against Belmont).  If they somehow won that game, they might well have been dog-meat for whatever 5 seed they drew precisely because they were struggling at less than 100%.

It didn't turn out to make any difference, but it's not clear Green Bay would have done any better ahd they won the auto-bid.  And I shudder to think what Wright State would have done had they won the auto-bid.

Understand: *I'm* not making the argument.  I'm simply entertaining it as plausible.

[LaPorteAveApostle]

I don't like to argue with people who aren't invested in making the contrary argument, but you could also argue that perhaps GB doesn't play until Friday (or Thurs) not Tues, and maybe Sykes is good enough to go.  (And maybe he'd be extra-motivated to go if it were the Prom instead of a sock hop, but I digress.) 

Sykes' injury should be discounted entirely for the purposes of the argument, which is "is the conference tourney the best way of choosing the representative of the conference?" and I think that's a valid question.

What's harder to do--or more worthy of reward:  what Michigan did (go 15-3 in a tough conference, winning on the road in Madison, East Lansing, and Columbus) or what Michigan State did (go 5-7 to finish the season, then win three games in three straight days)?

Begs the answer, surely, but perhaps injuries--or rather the specter thereof--make people worry about giving it to the regular season champion, if, say Team's Leading Scorer blew out a knee in their penultimate game.

But as a3uge put it so well, the smaller the conference, the more crucial the tourney.

I discount the "hot team" theory, since there were 10 days between Milwaukee's winning the tourney and them playing again.

I also think, what is the entire regular season good for--what does it ultimately mean, other than "a way to pass the time for a couple months"--if we can't even give the winner home court?

[Kyle321n]

what's pre- and post-pts?

Based on the A10's scoring of out of conference schedule based on the RPI.  Each game gets a point and then you average your points.

8.04 The following requirements must be met by all Atlantic 10 men's basketball teams. The penalty for non-compliance is outlined in the Conference Constitution and Bylaws.

A. Each men's team must maintain a 1.8 average for all non-conference games schedules. The RPI at the conclusion of the NCAA Tournament of the preceding season will be used for the pre-season analysis and the current season's pre-NCAA tournament RPI will be used for post-season analysis. The point values are as follows:
Ranked 1-50 in the RPI: 4 points
Ranked 51-100 in the RPI: 3 points
Ranked 101-125 in the RPI: 2.5 points
Ranked 126-150 in the RPI: 2 points
Ranked 151-175 in the RPI: 1 point
Ranked 176-200 in the RPI: 0.5 point
Ranked 201+ in the RPI: 0 points

B. Any Atlantic 10 institution playing a non-conference game against an opponent from the ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, SEC PAC-10 or Big East will receive no less than 2 points, regardless of the team's RPI.

C. Any Atlantic 10 institution playing a non-conference game against an opponent from Conference USA or Mountain West will receive no less than 1 point, regardless of the team's RPI.


8.05 An institution is permitted to fall short of the 2.0 requirement for women and a 1.8 for men twice in a 3-year period without being subject to the financial penalty. This exception is contingent on the overall conference scheduling average to being above a 2.3. The conference average will be determined entering the start of the season. If, at that time, it falls below a 2.3, the average will be calculated once more at the end of the season. When the final average is calculated, it shall then be determined if institutions which fell below a 2.0 /1.8 are subject to the financial penalties. Effective with the 2003-04 season.

As you can see in our conference, we had 4 teams over the 1.8 threshold.  Valpo was able to start over 1.8, but fell short due to underachievement of our schedule.

[LaPorteAveApostle]

oh, excellent!  That's very helpful.

Obviously, post-points are not our fault, because we schedule the teams for future games, not past, but it's helpful and interesting to see where it all ended up.

[Kyle321n]

oh, excellent!  That's very helpful. Obviously, post-points are not our fault, because we schedule the teams for future games, not past, but it's helpful and interesting to see where it all ended up.

The A-10 knocks you if your schedule fell below the 1.8 threshold through the season, but probably less than they would if you start with a sub 1.8 schedule.

[LaPorteAveApostle]

The A-10 knocks you if your schedule fell below the 1.8 threshold through the season

wow, that's a tad harsh.

like, if you beat all your opponents, then they would all have another loss bringing them down, and then you almost get penalized for winning :/