2014-2015 Horizon Predictions

[EddieCabot]

Apologize if this has been posted elsewhere, but noticed UWGB appeared at #84 in the College Sports Madness 144 countdown.  http://www.collegesportsmadness.com/article/9651

It lists them as #2 in the Horizon, so who gets listed above them?  Early predictions from last spring had CSU as the favorite, but that was before Forbes left. 

As usual, the Horizon appears to be wide open.  Seems to me that UWGB, CSU, Valpo and WSU should be the upper half, but I couldn't begin to predict an order.  Thoughts?

[vu72]

Thanks for the post.  It is a little early to really get a handle on how good Valpo will be.  Much depends on new guys or guys who played little last year. I will say that I predict that Vashil will be the best center in the league.  His improvement last year was very impressive and I have no reason to think he wouldn't make another leap forward.  I also see Alec Peters as an all conference player.  We will be very deep at guard, particularly at the point, where I expect a breakout season for Keith Carter, with lots of choices at the 2.  The question in my mind is who will back up Vashil and who will back up Adekoya at the 4..  That is where the unknowns start and end.  Will David Chadwick be able to stay healthy? Will E.Victor be healthy and able to contribute at the 4 or does he back up Alec at the 3?  Will Hammick be eligible? And what about Skara? Will he be the missing link and solve issues at the 4 and 5?

It will be great to see the team in action and hopefully get answers to these and other questions!

[motowntitan]

I will say that I predict that Vashil will be the best center in the league.

So, a guy that averaged 4.3 points and 5.1 rebounds (with 3 fouls per game) is going to improve more than Corey Petros (13 points and 8.2 rebounds)?

 

[motowntitan]

Apologize if this has been posted elsewhere, but noticed UWGB appeared at #84 in the College Sports Madness 144 countdown.  http://www.collegesportsmadness.com/article/9651

It lists them as #2 in the Horizon, so who gets listed above them?  Early predictions from last spring had CSU as the favorite, but that was before Forbes left. 

As usual, the Horizon appears to be wide open.  Seems to me that UWGB, CSU, Valpo and WSU should be the upper half, but I couldn't begin to predict an order.  Thoughts?

I think even with the loss of Forbes, I can see how someone would pick CSU over GB.  If Grady is completely healed, it would be huge for them.

Really after that it becomes another big mess.

WSU lost quite a bit, and seniors like Griffin and Hopkins haven't showed much offensive help (I know they seem to only play defense).
Milw gets quite a few back, but are we including them? Since they are eligible for nothing.
Valpo/OU lose key players as well, and both will be reliant on a large group of new players.
Detroit loses some size up front (and not as much as Valpo/OU), but also adds a slew of new players. 

UIC/YSU- should be at the bottom again.
   

[wh]

I will say that I predict that Vashil will be the best center in the league.

So, a guy that averaged 4.3 points and 5.1 rebounds (with 3 fouls per game) is going to improve more than Corey Petros (13 points and 8.2 rebounds)?

 

Vashil only began playing basketball in Jamaica in high school.  He did not have the benefit of playing AAU, or attending basketball camps, or receiving personal coaching, or any of the other typical advantages. Moreover, he was forced to sit out his Freshman year at Valpo, putting him even further behind his peers. Watching him play has been painful at times, but no question he has made significant improvement from where he started 2 years ago.  I doubt if he'll ever be a go-to guy on offense, but I think he will have a major impact on defense as a shot blocker/alterer and rebounder.  Will he be the best center in the league?  I have no idea, but he could be a force to be reckoned with by the time conference comes around.

I like Petros' game, but he probably received less defensive pressure than any other center in the league last year, given the incredible attention given to Bader. Undoubtedly, he will find getting to the basket and finishing much more challenging this year.

[valpotx]

I have said it many times, but Petros isn't good.  He is serviceable, but his numbers were VERY misleading.  Just watch the guy play.  As wh stated, he very much benefited from many bricks being thrown up by Bader, and getting easy putbacks.  Every time he touched the ball against us, I prayed that he would be the one to shoot...

[LaPorteAveApostle]

So, a guy that averaged 4.3 points and 5.1 rebounds (with 3 fouls per game)

I was going to say THAT IS GROSSLY UNFAIR IT WAS MORE LIKE FOUR POINT TWO FOULS PER GAME and then i checked the numbers, and i'm like, hey!  improvement already.

[bbtds]

I have said it many times, but Petros isn't good.  He is serviceable, but his numbers were VERY misleading.  Just watch the guy play.  As wh stated, he very much benefited from many bricks being thrown up by Bader, and getting easy putbacks.  Every time he touched the ball against us, I prayed that he would be the one to shoot...

Although the Pistons might pick Petros for the draft.

The draft at the Auburn Hills practice facility. Petros would be close by at OU and can really block the draft in the doorway.

[vu72]

I will say that I predict that Vashil will be the best center in the league.

So, a guy that averaged 4.3 points and 5.1 rebounds (with 3 fouls per game) is going to improve more than Corey Petros (13 points and 8.2 rebounds)?

 

Corey played 35.5 minutes per game.  Vashil played 19.3     During all those minutes Corey had 14 blocks while Vashil had 58.  Do you really think Petros will get better or has he peaked?  Vashil made a huge jump in performance last year and I expect the same level of improvement as he continues to learn the game and get stronger.  We'll just have to wait and see... 

[Dave_2010]

[/quote]

Corey played 35.5 minutes per game.  Vashil played 19.3     During all those minutes Corey had 14 blocks while Vashil had 58.
[/quote]

In fairness, one of the reasons that Petros was able to spend that much more time on the floor was his ability to stay out of foul trouble, an issue that plagued Vashil. One of the major contributing factors to his foul issues was his aggressiveness when chasing blocks. If Vashil is to average even 25 MPG this coming year, his block totals will come down in an effort to stay out of foul trouble.


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[vu72]

I agree there was a foul problem and no doubt the aggressive the play was allowed because Moussa was also there and getting even more blocks.  Even if the blocks drop his intimidation factor is big.  I also expect to see a more consistent hook shot from Vashil.

Oh and one more thing. When battling with a Titan fan on our board, fairness never should enter the conversation! 

[wh]

From the Detroit board:

Sporting News HL predicted standings:
1. Cleveland St
2. Valpo
3. Wisconsin Green Bay
4. Oakland
5. Wright St
6. Wisconsin Milwaukee
7. Youngstown St
8. Detroit
9. UIC

[wh]

I agree there was a foul problem and no doubt the aggressive the play was allowed because Moussa was also there and getting even more blocks.  Even if the blocks drop his intimidation factor is big.  I also expect to see a more consistent hook shot from Vashil.

Oh and one more thing. When battling with a Titan fan on our board, fairness never should enter the conversation! 

As time goes by, my bitter memory of the Horizon League tournament championship game at the ARC on Tuesday, March 6, 2012, in which Detroit Titan star player Ray McCallum, Jr. drove to the basket unabated and dunked the basketball as time expired with an 18 point lead at the time and while our players were extending congratulatory handshakes to other Titan players at a game during which inebriated Detroit students chanted profanity-laced cheers and generally acted like fools and graffitied houses and street signs after the game, has faded considerably. I guess it's true what they say about time healing all wounds. 

[LaPorteAveApostle]

[wh]

LOL

[historyman]

I agree there was a foul problem and no doubt the aggressive the play was allowed because Moussa was also there and getting even more blocks.  Even if the blocks drop his intimidation factor is big.  I also expect to see a more consistent hook shot from Vashil.

Oh and one more thing. When battling with a Titan fan on our board, fairness never should enter the conversation! 

As time goes by, my bitter memory of the Horizon League tournament championship game at the ARC on Tuesday, March 6, 2012, in which Detroit Titan star player Ray McCallum, Jr. drove to the basket unabated and dunked the basketball as time expired with an 18 point lead at the time and while our players were extending congratulatory handshakes to other Titan players at a game during which inebriated Detroit students chanted profanity-laced cheers and generally acted like fools and graffitied houses and street signs after the game, has faded considerably. I guess it's true what they say about time healing all wounds. 

Yes, it's faded so considerably that the details need much more sharpening. Sharpening enough to open old wounds. Opening old wounds that run extremely deep. So deep that one could go deep enough to pull the heart out of another human being, stomp on it, pour gasoline on it, light it up so it burns in H#!l forever.

Pretty faded for sure.

[wh]

For the record, my "bitterness" toward Detroit's program does not extend to their fans. It's not their fault they have a classless coach who allowed all the showboating, running up of scores, keeping starters in late in games to "get their numbers," etc. I had similar mixed feelings about Butler when they were in the league, with one slight difference. I admired their program and detested their fans.

[valpo64]

It is not the Detroit fans fault for the behavior of their "classless" coach but it IS their fault for THEIR classless behavior before, during and after that game in question.

[wh]

Commissioner's HL predictions:

1. Green Bay - An easy pick. Even with the loss of Alec Brown, the Phoenix return more rebounding than any team in the league, and more scoring than any team but Detroit. They've got the league's best player in Sykes, its best defensive player in Fouse, and some good talent that should step up this year to fill the few graduations that occured.
2. Cleveland State - Before Sebastian Douglas succumbed to a career-ending knee injury, and Bryn Forbes to the sweet entreaties of Tom Izzo, CSU was a too-trendy pick to win the Horizon. Despite those losses, they should still be a pretty solid second. Anton Grady, Charlie Lee and Trey Lewis are three all-conference quality players.

The Mosh Pit
Teams three through seven - maybe even 3 through 8 - really are a "pick 'em" in the Horizon.

3. Valparaiso - Earlier today I was feeling really optimistic about the Detroit and figuring what the heck, I'll pick them for third. It's not like anyone else has a whole lot better claim to it. But now I'm feeling pessimistic - that's what a few hours on a rainy day will do to ya sometimes. Valpo always seems to play a bit better than their personnel. Milwaukee fans seem to think I "hate" their team, but I don't at all. I hate Valpo, at least if by "hate" you mean what I think most fans really mean when they use the term - that is, I fear, respect, and really want to beat Valpo. It's a good rivalry. In an important respect, Valpo is quite a bit like Detroit: both teams are counting on players to improve a lot (Adekoya, Carter, Fernandez, Peters for Valpo; Williams, Grant, Brundidge, Onwenu for Detroit); on transfers to have an immediate impact (Nickerson for the Crusaders; Ackerman, Kearney, Jenkins for Detroit); and on freshman to solidify the bench (the Canadian guards for Valpo, the Michigan forwards for UD). That's a lot of question marks, but in each case I think there are real reasons to believe that that improvement will be forthcoming.

4. Detroit - My gut is feeling 5th right now, but I'll go with 4th as a good home town fan. Tomorrow morning they might be third again - or 6th.

5. Milwaukee - I'll be generous and put Milwaukee 5th. You see, it's not that I "hate" the Panthers. It's that when a team returns 3 starters from a team that won 20 games and the conference tournament, you feel obligated to explain why you're not picking them high. Athlon, Lindy's, ESPN, Blue Ribbon, TSN, and SI blogger Jay Parker all pick the Panthers for the second division, too. Why is that? The reason is that last year's season looks like a fluke, born of a cushy non-con schedule and a well-timed late season run. The stats tell us that Milwaukee was a bad shooting team (247th nationally in FG%), a bad rebounding team (266th in rebounding percentage), and a bad ballhandling team (269th in turnovers per possession). That they won with those numbers is a tribute to the Panthers. But it gives us reason to doubt that they'll be better, or even as good this year. They actually scored more points than they allowed even though they finished 21-14. That is really rare.

When you point this kind of thing out, people get all huffy and talk about "the eye test." Well, the "eye test" is important (we'll come back to that shortly). But stats - at least when properly used and understood - are merely the contemporaneous, objective recording of people watching the game. And those objective recordings are, well, usually pretty objective. Someone says - to jump to another sport - "Mickey Tettleton hit a lot of home runs for the Tigers, but they were always with the basis empty," and you can look at the stats and see if that's true. Surprise - it's not. He hit more home runs with men on base than most players. Memory is often much less reliable than the contemporaneous records. People like to say "there are lies, damn lies, and statistics," but what they really mean is either a) the person using statistics doesn't know how to properly use them; or b) the speaker of the afore quoted statement doesn't understand statistics and wants to cover that up; or c) the speaker understands he has been had and seeks to divert attention away from the evidence.

And what about that "eye test"? Well yeah, it matters a lot. Statistics and the eye test usually work in tandem, frankly. When they don't, the eye test is by no means always, or even usually, or even most of the time, superior. Give me the guy who made 46% of his three pointers with an ugly shot over the guy who just looked great shooting 27%. Give me the dull team with no turnovers over the team with "ooh" and "aah" passes and lots of turnovers. And if we want to talk "eye test" with Milwaukee last year, well, for a good 5 weeks, from mid-January until late February, they were probably the worst "eye test" team in the Horizon. I mean, they looked awful, going 3-7 and losing games by 24, 22, 19, 16, 15, and 13 points - and looking every bit as bad as those statistics suggest. And after all that, another set of stats shows us that teams that improve by 11 games one year - as the Panthers did - usually slide back a bit the next year. There are reasons for that I won't go into here, but the astute observer can figure them out. And the Panthers did lose their top two scorers, so it's not like they had no serious losses.

Phew. All that for the Panthers? Well, I wanted to make some points about stats. The Panthers do have a trio of really nice players in Matt Tiby, Steve McWhorter, and Austin Arians, and they did win 20 games last year. They'll be OK. But they're not a top flight team.

6. Wright State. Don't quite know what to make of the Raiders, but they're really weak inside unless juco Michael Karena comes through. If they hadn't booted Tavares Sledge, I'd probably pick them ahead of Milwaukee. But they're also a good candidate for 8th.

7. Oakland. I was going to pick OU higher, but the injury to Nick Daniels, who is out until at least late November, and suspension of Artis Cleveland make me wonder. Daniels has the same injury as last year, and last year his 8 week recovery ended up being a full year out of action. Don't know when or if Cleveland returns - his suspension is "indefinite." This was already a thin team. I really like PG Kahlil Felder, and have to concede Corey Petros is a very effective presence in the middle. In fact, I've got them listed 7th, but I'm sitting here thinking they'll beat out Wright State. Just too lazy to change the order now.

The Bottom:
8. Youngstown State. Go Guins!
9. UIC. Everybody is picking them for last, so if recent history is any guide they'll mow down their non-con opponents and stay in the Horizon race until late.

All-Conference First Team:
Kiefer Sykes, Green Bay
Juwan Howard, Detroit
Corey Petros, Oakland
Kahlil Felder, Oakland
Anton Grady, Cleveland State

Second Team:
Bobby Hain, Youngstown State
Alex Peters, Valparaiso
Jordan Fouse, Green Bay
Trey Lewis, Cleveland State
Charlie Lee, Cleveland State

Keep an Eye On: Greg Mays, Carrington Love, Green Bay; Steve McWhorter, Austin Arians, Matt Tiby, Milwaukee; Marc Brown, UIC; Vashil Fernandez, Keith Carter, Valparaiso; Jarod Williams, Carlton Brundidge, Chris Jenkins, Paris Bass, Detroit; Reggie Arceneaux, Chrishawn Hopkins, Joe Thomasson, Wright State; DJ Cole, Youngstown State; Marlin Mason, Cleveland State.

All Defensive Team
Jordan Fouse, Green Bay
Brandan Kearney, Detroit
Kiefer Sykes, Green Bay
JJ Panoske, Milwaukee
Charlie Lee, Cleveland State

All Freshman Team
Paris Bass, Detroit
Bryce Nickels, Youngstown State
Jalen Hayes, Oakland
Rod Davis, Wright State
Lance Whitaker, UIC

[vu72]

How do you get two guys on the All Conference First Team and have the team finishing seventh?(Oakland) 

[LaPorteAveApostle]

Easy--it's just like in Bill Laimbeer's Combat Basketball, when you save all your money to buy a Laimbeer and the rest of your team is just crappy robots.

[motowntitan]

How do you get two guys on the All Conference First Team and have the team finishing seventh?(Oakland) 

Well, I guess you are assuming that no one else on that team is any good?

However, I don't recall if it was you, or WH, but I am in agreement with someone on hear that expect a drop off from Felder.  Being the third option with Bader and Mondy can really keep a team from focusing on you.  Unless some of their other guards are more ready that what it would seem (i.e long time off, returning from injury, etc).

Finally, I don't like the idea of putting two of the same position on any first team all conference teams.  I think it should be the best PG, SG, SF, PF, and center.  Maybe I'm just too old school.

[motowntitan]

Easy--it's just like in Bill Laimbeer's Combat Basketball, when you save all your money to buy a Laimbeer and the rest of your team is just crappy robots.

Lol, two questions:

1) Is that your copy?
if yes:
2) did you take the time to dyna label all of your games?

[LaPorteAveApostle]

I wish I could answer yes to both questions, but I just GISed like I always do.

(Man, I miss the Bad Boys.  The last 6 years we've just been bad.)

[a3uge]

Petros and Grady 1st team? Yeesh.

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