2014-2015 Horizon Predictions

[FWalum]

I readily admit that I bleed Brown and Gold when it comes to Valpo basketball, but I don't believe I am wearing brown colored glasses (tribute to prog super group Transatlantic) when I say that I think our returning talent is being undervalued in the Commissioner's projections.  I envision that at least Carter and Peters will appear on one of the three teams for which they are eligible.  Peters experienced the "freshman fizzle" toward the end of the season last year, but I don't expect that to be the case this year.  I think we see the real Carter this year.  Yes, the one of which Rick Majerus openly said will be the second-best floor leader he's ever coached behind NBA veteran Andre Miller.  I think that Rick's projections carry a little more weight than our friend the Commissioner.

[valpotx]

Easy--it's just like in Bill Laimbeer's Combat Basketball, when you save all your money to buy a Laimbeer and the rest of your team is just crappy robots.

Awesome!

Btw, have I told you that Petros sucks?

[blackpantheruwm]

I don't think picking Milwaukee 5th is being hard at all. Our tournament run was based on a player who had an outstanding tournament and he's no longer here. Lost our top 2 scorers, #2 assist leader and #2 rebounder. We were 7-9 in conference last season. Fifth may be generous.

[valporun]

blackpanther, 5th is very generous, especially for a team who is ineligible for the 2015 NCAA Tournament because they couldn't meet APR standards. It does mean that UWM can't even be in the Horizon League Tournament field, correct?

[Commissioner]

FWalum: I do have Peters 2nd team all-conference. He could easily be first team. I figured Sykes and Howard are gimmes for the first team. Like several folks here, I'm not a big Petros fan. But he was second team last year, and he's going to average 15 points and 8 rebounds this year. He'll be all-conference. After that I had Felder, Grady, Hain, Peters, and maybe Lewis (not necessarily in that order) as first team candidates. Some people think Felder will fall off without Bader and Mondy. I think he's the real deal. I left Peters on the second team mainly because not many sophs make the first team. He certainly could though - I think in my Valpo projection I even suggested he could be a strong POY candidate, and I still think that. A very valuable property when you figure he's only a sophomore. So it was sort of a coin flip. Grady and Felder (and Hain, too, for that matter; and, well, Peters and Lewis too for THAT matter) were playing really well at the end of last season.

I also included Carter (and Fernandez) as players to watch. Could have included Jubril and even Nickerson there, too. I also think Valpo has a couple guys who could be all-defensive team, esp. Fernandez (likely league leader in blocks, which voters will like), Carter, and even Peters. I don't think Valpo has all-frosh team contenders if for no other reason than I don't think the freshmen will get the playing time, but I could be wrong and one of the Canadian guards may force his way into the rotation or even the starting lineup with the loss of Williams and Yeo.

Cheers.

Apostle - love combat basketball. I still can't believe Laimbeer wasn't a 1st ballot Hall of Famer 

[classof2014]

Here is my HL preview.

First: Cleveland State

Even with the loss of all conference caliber player Bryn Forbes (whom left for Michigan State, apparently do to being "homesick") Gary Waters should have the Vikings poised to take the crown in the Horizon League. Let us not forget Charlie Lee is in my mind the second best point guard in the HL, and in most years would be the best if it weren't for Sykes in Green Bay. Lee was 2nd in the league in 3 point percentage, 2nd in free throw percentage, top 10 in assists as well as steals. They also return Sebastian Douglas, whom last year led the league in FG percentage, as well as Anton Grady who is a terrific athlete and is (in my mind) a potential first teamer this year. I think Trey Lewis is a very under appreciated player in the league and won't be surprised if he has a season similar to the of LaVonte Dority of last year. Cleveland State always plays tough defense and forces a lot of turnovers which equate to points being taken away. Thus even without Bryn Forbes, Cleveland State is my pick to finish first in the HL this season.

Second: Valparaiso

Yes, the Crusaders are losing the likes of Dority, who was a top 5 player in the HL last year, and guys off the bench like Capobianco, Gueye, and Coleman, as well as losing Clay Yeo (do to transfer) and Lexus Williams (torn ACL). The Crusaders return one of the brightest young stars in the HL, Alec Peters, who can give Keifer Sykes a run for his money for HL PoW. They also bring back Jubril Adekoya, while on the court did all the little things to help the team out and I would expect his ball handling and shooting to increase, especially since Bryce seems to get the most out of his shooters, look at Dority, Capobianco, and Coleman all becoming better shooting threats. If Adekoya can get the occasional 3 pointer or deep 2 to fall lets say 35% of the time he will be tough to stop due to his athleticism and strength around the basket. They also return big man Vashil Fernandez, the Jammin' Jamaican was one of the biggest surprises in the Horizon League last year as he beat out Alabama transfer for the starting job midway through the season and was a force below the rim on the defensive end. Towards the end of the year his turnovers decreased and I really think he can make some big strides (no pun intended) and could possibly wind up on the second team or perhaps becoming the best center in the league, so long he cleans up his fouling and his freethrow shooting percentage increases a bit. They also get the help of Charlotte transfer E. Victor Nickerson, who really can be the key to the season and the spark off the bench every team needs, he brings athleticism and a lot of energy off the bench. Let us not forget about Keith Carter, who will be taking over at the point this season, after the injury to Lexus will have him sidelined for the season. Carter I think will be another surprise, you saw flashes of greatness last season and I expect to see more consistency out of him once he's given the keys to run the offense we really can see what he can do.

Third: Detroit

As much as I am a big fan of the Titans, I do think they have a strong team here. Led by Juwan Howard, who is another player to likely find his way on the first team. The Titans finished 8th in the league last year but return six of their top seven scorers and really only lose Evan Bruinsma, who really wasn't anything special just a senior on a really young team. So the Titans should be much better and always seem to be tough to play with their uptempo style of play makes for some great back and forth affairs, which may lead to the occasional blowout, which I think will occur when they play teams that have weaker offenses, such as YSUs, UWMs, and WSUs. Detroit has a good nucleus and matches up well with many of the teams in the HL, I just don't think they can beat the more complete teams in the league but should have 5 or 6 wins against teams with issues scoring. Redshirt freshman Paris Bass as well as Colorado transfer Chris Jenkins should provide some size and scoring from off the bench.

Fourth: Green Bay

Yes, Green Bay does have the best player in the league but I think the loss of Alec Brown will really hurt the Phoenix's chances this season. I don't think Wardle is that great of a coach and the Phoenix have underachieved the past few seasons. Although, they finished first in the league last year they were ousted in their first tournament game against the Panthers and were left on the outside looking in at the NCAA tournament. Green Bay does have some good players after Sykes, Jordan Fouse is a great defender and rebounder and not much of a scorer, as well as Greg Mays and Alonzo McKinnie are decent but neither great. Teams are gonna doubleteam Sykes, and since they no longer have the threat of Alec Brown to score down low or outside I predict a drop in his numbers this season. Wardle doesn't seem to get the very best out of his players and the team to me seems unbalanced. Other than Sykes none of their guards jump out at me as being able to be a big scoring threat. And the guys down low I don't think will be able to score enough to offset the lack of depth at guard. This team reminds me a lot of Youngstown State a few seasons ago when they were good but not great, Sykes is at the same caliber of a Kendrick Perry and with missing Alec Brown teams will focus on him and he will have issues getting to the rim, and if Sykes can't score 20-25 a game I don't think Green Bay has enough scoring or good enough coaching that is needed to win this league.

Fifth: UIC

Perhaps my boldest prediction. This is rather simple, the law of finishing last, the team most likely to finish last at the beginning of the season simply won't. I know it sounds somewhat confusing but lets take a look, last year Milwaukee was tabbed to finish last and they went dancing, year before UIC and they got off to a hot start and played postseason basketball, so based on the last two seasons UIC should get lucky in a few close games and finish middle of the pack. I think the experience of losing so many close games will help them win many of these games this year and should finish middle of the pack this season with returners like Marc Brown, Jake Wiegand,  Jay Parker, this team is much more experienced than last year and Howard Moore should live to see another year as UIC has a decent season.

Sixth: Wright State

The Raiders, lose a lot, almost all of their scoring and starters. It will be hard for Billy Donlon to rebound his troops after losing five of their top 6 scorers. But they have some decent players to rebound around though, Reggie Arceneaux who was the leagues best 3 point shooter will see an increase in his opportunities, as well as players like Chrishawn Hopkins, JT Yoho, and Tavares Sledge, oh wait I forgot Wright State simply disappeared Sledge, So I guess they have 3 players to go to in this season. But Donlon always plays a defensive style and keeps teams to low scoring affairs so their lack of skill players doesn't hurt them as much but losing so much doesn't make for a great season. I just think Donlon is a great coach and the Raiders may surprise a few teams this season with their style of play.

Seventh: Oakland

Losing Travis Bader and Duke Mondy isn't going to make it easy on Greg Kampe and the Grizzlies this season. They do return Cory Petros and Khalil Felder but losing those two talents will turn teams towards defending Felder and Petros more and I don't expect as much out of these two. Oakland just doesn't look that great and it might be a few years until they get their act together in a stronger Horizon League, much like with Valparaiso. Oakland plays a style similar to Detroit but losing their two main scoring threats hurts when they thought of defense last and offense first. As they were dead last in scoring defense but second in scoring offense, and its gonna be hard to win then you have little defense couple with an okay offense.

Eighth: Milwaukee

If it wasn't for Milwaukee being disqualified from the tournament I would've picked them higher. I think its going to be tough to rebound from this one. Losing their two top scorers in Kyle Kelm and Jordan Aaron will hurt. This team exceeded expectations last season and won some close games, this season I see them losing those games and then get blown out in the games that aren't so close. They do have Matt Tiby back who is likely to find his way on the first or second team come the end of the season. Rob Jeter has a tough task ahead of him as the Panthers are basically trying to play spoiler this season and may steal a game or two at the end of the season but that's the only potential I see in the Panthers is winning a few spoiler games to salvage a meaningless season.

Ninth: Youngstown State

The post Kendrick Perry era begins in Youngstown and well they will suffer. Perry did everything for the Penguins, score, pass, defend, he basically was the Penguins and the team will suffer after his loss due to graduation. The Penguins lose their top 3 scorers from last season. The biggest blow is Ryan Weber opting to play for Ball State after he was punched in the face by fellow teammate Marcus Keene. Bobby Haine should lead the team in scoring but after that there isn't much else, they do have two decent freshmen in Sidney Umude and Bryce Nickels but 2 freshmen isn't gonna make the needed impact of save the Penguins from what is looking like to be a lackluster year for Slocum's team.

Projected first team

Alec Peters (PoW) - I think Valpo is balanced and this will open up the game for Peters he had 2 30 point performances as well as a 29 point performance last season. I think he will out perform Sykes in Green Bay and will be that consistent scorer the Crusaders need.

Keifer Sykes - Great player with a good supporting cast but I see his season similar to Kendrick Perry's of last year, a fantastic season, but with the absence of Alec Brown defenses can focus on him and I see a dropoff in his numbers, a team isn't just one player and I think the Phoenix will rely too much on Sykes and I see him scoring 16 or 17 PPG which is still very good but not good enough for PoY, in my opinion.

Trey Lewis - He's my sleeper pick, he does a lot of things and I think will be the key to the Vikings strong season, he seems similar to LaVonte Dority and that bodes well for the junior.

Anton Grady - Last year he was recovering from a knee injury that sidelined him for a season. He had a fantastic freshman season and was getting back into the groove last year. Expect big thins from this man and expect him to be the best power forward in the league.

Juwan Howard - He's a scorer and good at it. He will lead the Titans in scoring and will average 20-25 this season on a team that likes to run an uptempo style of offense.

FoY - Bryce Nickels, I think he will have an increased role in the Penguins season and will have decent numbers on a team that doesn't seem to have many scorers or big play guys and I think this is a down year for the HL, in terms of freshmen.

Defensive PoY - Vashil Fernandez, the big man will be force down low and will have a monstrous season in terms of shot blocking and will really make teams one dimensional as scoring on the Crusaders around the basket may prove to be quite difficult.

CoY - Howard Moore, I am big on guys who do a lot with a little and I think that will be the case here. UIC had a terrible season last year and will see great improvements this season.

[valpopal]

[tweet]522485978964180993[/tweet]

[wh]

Here is my HL preview.

First: Cleveland State

Even with the loss of all conference caliber player Bryn Forbes (whom left for Michigan State, apparently do to being "homesick") Gary Waters should have the Vikings poised to take the crown in the Horizon League. Let us not forget Charlie Lee is in my mind the second best point guard in the HL, and in most years would be the best if it weren't for Sykes in Green Bay. Lee was 2nd in the league in 3 point percentage, 2nd in free throw percentage, top 10 in assists as well as steals. They also return Sebastian Douglas, whom last year led the league in FG percentage, as well as Anton Grady who is a terrific athlete and is (in my mind) a potential first teamer this year. I think Trey Lewis is a very under appreciated player in the league and won't be surprised if he has a season similar to the of LaVonte Dority of last year. Cleveland State always plays tough defense and forces a lot of turnovers which equate to points being taken away. Thus even without Bryn Forbes, Cleveland State is my pick to finish first in the HL this season.

Second: Valparaiso

Yes, the Crusaders are losing the likes of Dority, who was a top 5 player in the HL last year, and guys off the bench like Capobianco, Gueye, and Coleman, as well as losing Clay Yeo (do to transfer) and Lexus Williams (torn ACL). The Crusaders return one of the brightest young stars in the HL, Alec Peters, who can give Keifer Sykes a run for his money for HL PoW. They also bring back Jubril Adekoya, while on the court did all the little things to help the team out and I would expect his ball handling and shooting to increase, especially since Bryce seems to get the most out of his shooters, look at Dority, Capobianco, and Coleman all becoming better shooting threats. If Adekoya can get the occasional 3 pointer or deep 2 to fall lets say 35% of the time he will be tough to stop due to his athleticism and strength around the basket. They also return big man Vashil Fernandez, the Jammin' Jamaican was one of the biggest surprises in the Horizon League last year as he beat out Alabama transfer for the starting job midway through the season and was a force below the rim on the defensive end. Towards the end of the year his turnovers decreased and I really think he can make some big strides (no pun intended) and could possibly wind up on the second team or perhaps becoming the best center in the league, so long he cleans up his fouling and his freethrow shooting percentage increases a bit. They also get the help of Charlotte transfer E. Victor Nickerson, who really can be the key to the season and the spark off the bench every team needs, he brings athleticism and a lot of energy off the bench. Let us not forget about Keith Carter, who will be taking over at the point this season, after the injury to Lexus will have him sidelined for the season. Carter I think will be another surprise, you saw flashes of greatness last season and I expect to see more consistency out of him once he's given the keys to run the offense we really can see what he can do.

Third: Detroit

As much as I am a big fan of the Titans, I do think they have a strong team here. Led by Juwan Howard, who is another player to likely find his way on the first team. The Titans finished 8th in the league last year but return six of their top seven scorers and really only lose Evan Bruinsma, who really wasn't anything special just a senior on a really young team. So the Titans should be much better and always seem to be tough to play with their uptempo style of play makes for some great back and forth affairs, which may lead to the occasional blowout, which I think will occur when they play teams that have weaker offenses, such as YSUs, UWMs, and WSUs. Detroit has a good nucleus and matches up well with many of the teams in the HL, I just don't think they can beat the more complete teams in the league but should have 5 or 6 wins against teams with issues scoring. Redshirt freshman Paris Bass as well as Colorado transfer Chris Jenkins should provide some size and scoring from off the bench.

Fourth: Green Bay

Yes, Green Bay does have the best player in the league but I think the loss of Alec Brown will really hurt the Phoenix's chances this season. I don't think Wardle is that great of a coach and the Phoenix have underachieved the past few seasons. Although, they finished first in the league last year they were ousted in their first tournament game against the Panthers and were left on the outside looking in at the NCAA tournament. Green Bay does have some good players after Sykes, Jordan Fouse is a great defender and rebounder and not much of a scorer, as well as Greg Mays and Alonzo McKinnie are decent but neither great. Teams are gonna doubleteam Sykes, and since they no longer have the threat of Alec Brown to score down low or outside I predict a drop in his numbers this season. Wardle doesn't seem to get the very best out of his players and the team to me seems unbalanced. Other than Sykes none of their guards jump out at me as being able to be a big scoring threat. And the guys down low I don't think will be able to score enough to offset the lack of depth at guard. This team reminds me a lot of Youngstown State a few seasons ago when they were good but not great, Sykes is at the same caliber of a Kendrick Perry and with missing Alec Brown teams will focus on him and he will have issues getting to the rim, and if Sykes can't score 20-25 a game I don't think Green Bay has enough scoring or good enough coaching that is needed to win this league.

Fifth: UIC

Perhaps my boldest prediction. This is rather simple, the law of finishing last, the team most likely to finish last at the beginning of the season simply won't. I know it sounds somewhat confusing but lets take a look, last year Milwaukee was tabbed to finish last and they went dancing, year before UIC and they got off to a hot start and played postseason basketball, so based on the last two seasons UIC should get lucky in a few close games and finish middle of the pack. I think the experience of losing so many close games will help them win many of these games this year and should finish middle of the pack this season with returners like Marc Brown, Jake Wiegand,  Jay Parker, this team is much more experienced than last year and Howard Moore should live to see another year as UIC has a decent season.

Sixth: Wright State

The Raiders, lose a lot, almost all of their scoring and starters. It will be hard for Billy Donlon to rebound his troops after losing five of their top 6 scorers. But they have some decent players to rebound around though, Reggie Arceneaux who was the leagues best 3 point shooter will see an increase in his opportunities, as well as players like Chrishawn Hopkins, JT Yoho, and Tavares Sledge, oh wait I forgot Wright State simply disappeared Sledge, So I guess they have 3 players to go to in this season. But Donlon always plays a defensive style and keeps teams to low scoring affairs so their lack of skill players doesn't hurt them as much but losing so much doesn't make for a great season. I just think Donlon is a great coach and the Raiders may surprise a few teams this season with their style of play.

Seventh: Oakland

Losing Travis Bader and Duke Mondy isn't going to make it easy on Greg Kampe and the Grizzlies this season. They do return Cory Petros and Khalil Felder but losing those two talents will turn teams towards defending Felder and Petros more and I don't expect as much out of these two. Oakland just doesn't look that great and it might be a few years until they get their act together in a stronger Horizon League, much like with Valparaiso. Oakland plays a style similar to Detroit but losing their two main scoring threats hurts when they thought of defense last and offense first. As they were dead last in scoring defense but second in scoring offense, and its gonna be hard to win then you have little defense couple with an okay offense.

Eighth: Milwaukee

If it wasn't for Milwaukee being disqualified from the tournament I would've picked them higher. I think its going to be tough to rebound from this one. Losing their two top scorers in Kyle Kelm and Jordan Aaron will hurt. This team exceeded expectations last season and won some close games, this season I see them losing those games and then get blown out in the games that aren't so close. They do have Matt Tiby back who is likely to find his way on the first or second team come the end of the season. Rob Jeter has a tough task ahead of him as the Panthers are basically trying to play spoiler this season and may steal a game or two at the end of the season but that's the only potential I see in the Panthers is winning a few spoiler games to salvage a meaningless season.

Ninth: Youngstown State

The post Kendrick Perry era begins in Youngstown and well they will suffer. Perry did everything for the Penguins, score, pass, defend, he basically was the Penguins and the team will suffer after his loss due to graduation. The Penguins lose their top 3 scorers from last season. The biggest blow is Ryan Weber opting to play for Ball State after he was punched in the face by fellow teammate Marcus Keene. Bobby Haine should lead the team in scoring but after that there isn't much else, they do have two decent freshmen in Sidney Umude and Bryce Nickels but 2 freshmen isn't gonna make the needed impact of save the Penguins from what is looking like to be a lackluster year for Slocum's team.

Projected first team

Alec Peters (PoW) - I think Valpo is balanced and this will open up the game for Peters he had 2 30 point performances as well as a 29 point performance last season. I think he will out perform Sykes in Green Bay and will be that consistent scorer the Crusaders need.

Keifer Sykes - Great player with a good supporting cast but I see his season similar to Kendrick Perry's of last year, a fantastic season, but with the absence of Alec Brown defenses can focus on him and I see a dropoff in his numbers, a team isn't just one player and I think the Phoenix will rely too much on Sykes and I see him scoring 16 or 17 PPG which is still very good but not good enough for PoY, in my opinion.

Trey Lewis - He's my sleeper pick, he does a lot of things and I think will be the key to the Vikings strong season, he seems similar to LaVonte Dority and that bodes well for the junior.

Anton Grady - Last year he was recovering from a knee injury that sidelined him for a season. He had a fantastic freshman season and was getting back into the groove last year. Expect big thins from this man and expect him to be the best power forward in the league.

Juwan Howard - He's a scorer and good at it. He will lead the Titans in scoring and will average 20-25 this season on a team that likes to run an uptempo style of offense.

FoY - Bryce Nickels, I think he will have an increased role in the Penguins season and will have decent numbers on a team that doesn't seem to have many scorers or big play guys and I think this is a down year for the HL, in terms of freshmen.

Defensive PoY - Vashil Fernandez, the big man will be force down low and will have a monstrous season in terms of shot blocking and will really make teams one dimensional as scoring on the Crusaders around the basket may prove to be quite difficult.

CoY - Howard Moore, I am big on guys who do a lot with a little and I think that will be the case here. UIC had a terrible season last year and will see great improvements this season.

Good team-by-team analysis.  A lot of things have to go right, but I agree with your Valpo analysis and placement.

[blackpantheruwm]

blackpanther, 5th is very generous, especially for a team who is ineligible for the 2015 NCAA Tournament because they couldn't meet APR standards. It does mean that UWM can't even be in the Horizon League Tournament field, correct?

You misunderstand me. WH was talking about how he may have been a little hard. I think a preseason ranking of 5 is the ceiling, and we could be picked from anywhere between 5th and 8th.

[FWalum]

FWalum: I do have Peters 2nd team all-conference. He could easily be first team. I figured Sykes and Howard are gimmes for the first team. Like several folks here, I'm not a big Petros fan. But he was second team last year, and he's going to average 15 points and 8 rebounds this year. He'll be all-conference. After that I had Felder, Grady, Hain, Peters, and maybe Lewis (not necessarily in that order) as first team candidates. Some people think Felder will fall off without Bader and Mondy. I think he's the real deal. I left Peters on the second team mainly because not many sophs make the first team. He certainly could though - I think in my Valpo projection I even suggested he could be a strong POY candidate, and I still think that. A very valuable property when you figure he's only a sophomore. So it was sort of a coin flip. Grady and Felder (and Hain, too, for that matter; and, well, Peters and Lewis too for THAT matter) were playing really well at the end of last season.

I also included Carter (and Fernandez) as players to watch. Could have included Jubril and even Nickerson there, too. I also think Valpo has a couple guys who could be all-defensive team, esp. Fernandez (likely league leader in blocks, which voters will like), Carter, and even Peters. I don't think Valpo has all-frosh team contenders if for no other reason than I don't think the freshmen will get the playing time, but I could be wrong and one of the Canadian guards may force his way into the rotation or even the starting lineup with the loss of Williams and Yeo.

Cheers.

Wasn't trying to be critical in any way.  Thanks for the further insight to the thought process that went into the projections.  I agree with most everything including the Petros comment.  I just think he is a little weak offensively against other big bodies as was obvious especially in the first Valpo game last year.  We always talk about big men developing slower (VU will probably be talking about that a lot in the upcoming years) so perhaps Petros will show more this coming season.  I think there is more speculation this year than some of the recent past, should really be interesting to see how the teams develop this year.

[crusadermoe]

How can you not pick Green Bay?   Sykes is just too big an x factor in the clutch.   And they play very solid D.

[Dave_2010]

How can you not pick Green Bay?   Sykes is just too big an x factor in the clutch.   And they play very solid D.

Much like Kobe and Shaquille in LA, I think many are giving Sykes too much credit for GB's recent success. Extremely small sample size, but look at the game they played at the ARC without Brown last year. Our frontcourt manhandled theirs all game on both ends of the floor. GB looked nothing like the force they were as they tore through league.

When a team has a dynamic player up front, it completely changes the way both that team and its opponent play the game. Brown's presence covered a great deal of other Phoenix issues up front. I sincerely doubt Wardle's ability to adjust to those changes, especially against teams with deep frontcourts.

Green Bay is still a top-four team and threat to win the conference, but they are by no means the favorite, let alone obvious pick.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[LaPorteAveApostle]

look at the game they played at the ARC

ding ding ding

not in our fouse

[wh]

When a team has a dynamic player up front, it completely changes the way both that team and its opponent play the game. Brown's presence covered a great deal of other Phoenix issues up front. I sincerely doubt Wardle's ability to adjust to those changes, especially against teams with deep frontcourts.

How could you doubt the coaching ability of a guy on everyone's short list of up and coming coaches in D-1 basketball. After all, he won 1 conference championship, 0 tournament championships, and 0 NCAA tournament appearances with Brown and Sykes leading the way over multiple years.  So, it makes perfect sense that our league prognosticators would pick this year's weaker version as the preseason team to beat. Should they win?  Probably.  Will they win?  Highly unlikely. Don't ever forget, this is the same guy that let Ryan dribble the ball unguarded for 3/4 court before making a feeble attempt to stop his winning 3-pointer at the gun. He's not a nice individual, he's not a good game coach, and he will leave an opening for someone else.

[wh]

By the way, I hate the whiny "Brown and Sykes were hurt" excuse that GB fans gave for losing to Milwaukee in last year's tournament. How convenient it is to overlook that Milw had played a knock down drag out game the day before while GB was fully rested. Or, that the game was on GB's home court. Or, that the 2 did play and Sykes had a big scoring game despite his injury. As to Brown's injury excuse, it wouldn't be the first time he disappeared in a big game - injured or not.

[Kyle321n]

I think you guys might be OVER rating Brown. I think Mays is a better all around player than Brown was and that with Brown gone it'll open up opportunities for Mays and Fouse.

Yes we shut them down on our court, and I think we beat them at home again this year, but I can't see Green Bay being worse than 13-3 this season in conference. Tell me who has the guards (besides us) to compete with Sykes for 35 minutes? Oakland (Felder) and Cleveland State (your pick, Lee or Lewis).  In my prediction I have GB being 13-3 with a sweep at home and losses to us, Cleveland St and Wright St (because no one plays particularly well there and their team D is enough to beat you). I don't think they win the tournament, but I do think they take the regular season title.

[LaPorteAveApostle]

It's not that Brown was Just So Great; it's what he, being very good, opened up for everyone else.  Like the way everyone expects less from Petros and perhaps Felder in the absence of Bader.

[talksalot]

Commissioner's HL predictions:

1. Green Bay - An easy pick. Even with the loss of Alec Brown, the Phoenix return more rebounding than any team in the league, and more scoring than any team but Detroit. They've got the league's best player in Sykes, its best defensive player in Fouse, and some good talent that should step up this year to fill the few graduations that occured.
2. Cleveland State - Before Sebastian Douglas succumbed to a career-ending knee injury, and Bryn Forbes to the sweet entreaties of Tom Izzo, CSU was a too-trendy pick to win the Horizon. Despite those losses, they should still be a pretty solid second. Anton Grady, Charlie Lee and Trey Lewis are three all-conference quality players.

The Mosh Pit
Teams three through seven - maybe even 3 through 8 - really are a "pick 'em" in the Horizon.

3. Valparaiso - Earlier today I was feeling really optimistic about the Detroit and figuring what the heck, I'll pick them for third. It's not like anyone else has a whole lot better claim to it. But now I'm feeling pessimistic - that's what a few hours on a rainy day will do to ya sometimes. Valpo always seems to play a bit better than their personnel. Milwaukee fans seem to think I "hate" their team, but I don't at all. I hate Valpo, at least if by "hate" you mean what I think most fans really mean when they use the term - that is, I fear, respect, and really want to beat Valpo. It's a good rivalry. In an important respect, Valpo is quite a bit like Detroit: both teams are counting on players to improve a lot (Adekoya, Carter, Fernandez, Peters for Valpo; Williams, Grant, Brundidge, Onwenu for Detroit); on transfers to have an immediate impact (Nickerson for the Crusaders; Ackerman, Kearney, Jenkins for Detroit); and on freshman to solidify the bench (the Canadian guards for Valpo, the Michigan forwards for UD). That's a lot of question marks, but in each case I think there are real reasons to believe that that improvement will be forthcoming.

4. Detroit - My gut is feeling 5th right now, but I'll go with 4th as a good home town fan. Tomorrow morning they might be third again - or 6th.

5. Milwaukee - I'll be generous and put Milwaukee 5th. You see, it's not that I "hate" the Panthers. It's that when a team returns 3 starters from a team that won 20 games and the conference tournament, you feel obligated to explain why you're not picking them high. Athlon, Lindy's, ESPN, Blue Ribbon, TSN, and SI blogger Jay Parker all pick the Panthers for the second division, too. Why is that? The reason is that last year's season looks like a fluke, born of a cushy non-con schedule and a well-timed late season run. The stats tell us that Milwaukee was a bad shooting team (247th nationally in FG%), a bad rebounding team (266th in rebounding percentage), and a bad ballhandling team (269th in turnovers per possession). That they won with those numbers is a tribute to the Panthers. But it gives us reason to doubt that they'll be better, or even as good this year. They actually scored more points than they allowed even though they finished 21-14. That is really rare.

When you point this kind of thing out, people get all huffy and talk about "the eye test." Well, the "eye test" is important (we'll come back to that shortly). But stats - at least when properly used and understood - are merely the contemporaneous, objective recording of people watching the game. And those objective recordings are, well, usually pretty objective. Someone says - to jump to another sport - "Mickey Tettleton hit a lot of home runs for the Tigers, but they were always with the basis empty," and you can look at the stats and see if that's true. Surprise - it's not. He hit more home runs with men on base than most players. Memory is often much less reliable than the contemporaneous records. People like to say "there are lies, damn lies, and statistics," but what they really mean is either a) the person using statistics doesn't know how to properly use them; or b) the speaker of the afore quoted statement doesn't understand statistics and wants to cover that up; or c) the speaker understands he has been had and seeks to divert attention away from the evidence.

And what about that "eye test"? Well yeah, it matters a lot. Statistics and the eye test usually work in tandem, frankly. When they don't, the eye test is by no means always, or even usually, or even most of the time, superior. Give me the guy who made 46% of his three pointers with an ugly shot over the guy who just looked great shooting 27%. Give me the dull team with no turnovers over the team with "ooh" and "aah" passes and lots of turnovers. And if we want to talk "eye test" with Milwaukee last year, well, for a good 5 weeks, from mid-January until late February, they were probably the worst "eye test" team in the Horizon. I mean, they looked awful, going 3-7 and losing games by 24, 22, 19, 16, 15, and 13 points - and looking every bit as bad as those statistics suggest. And after all that, another set of stats shows us that teams that improve by 11 games one year - as the Panthers did - usually slide back a bit the next year. There are reasons for that I won't go into here, but the astute observer can figure them out. And the Panthers did lose their top two scorers, so it's not like they had no serious losses.

Phew. All that for the Panthers? Well, I wanted to make some points about stats. The Panthers do have a trio of really nice players in Matt Tiby, Steve McWhorter, and Austin Arians, and they did win 20 games last year. They'll be OK. But they're not a top flight team.

6. Wright State. Don't quite know what to make of the Raiders, but they're really weak inside unless juco Michael Karena comes through. If they hadn't booted Tavares Sledge, I'd probably pick them ahead of Milwaukee. But they're also a good candidate for 8th.

7. Oakland. I was going to pick OU higher, but the injury to Nick Daniels, who is out until at least late November, and suspension of Artis Cleveland make me wonder. Daniels has the same injury as last year, and last year his 8 week recovery ended up being a full year out of action. Don't know when or if Cleveland returns - his suspension is "indefinite." This was already a thin team. I really like PG Kahlil Felder, and have to concede Corey Petros is a very effective presence in the middle. In fact, I've got them listed 7th, but I'm sitting here thinking they'll beat out Wright State. Just too lazy to change the order now.

The Bottom:
8. Youngstown State. Go Guins!
9. UIC. Everybody is picking them for last, so if recent history is any guide they'll mow down their non-con opponents and stay in the Horizon race until late.

All-Conference First Team:
Kiefer Sykes, Green Bay
Juwan Howard, Detroit
Corey Petros, Oakland
Kahlil Felder, Oakland
Anton Grady, Cleveland State

Second Team:
Bobby Hain, Youngstown State
Alex Peters, Valparaiso
Jordan Fouse, Green Bay
Trey Lewis, Cleveland State
Charlie Lee, Cleveland State

Keep an Eye On: Greg Mays, Carrington Love, Green Bay; Steve McWhorter, Austin Arians, Matt Tiby, Milwaukee; Marc Brown, UIC; Vashil Fernandez, Keith Carter, Valparaiso; Jarod Williams, Carlton Brundidge, Chris Jenkins, Paris Bass, Detroit; Reggie Arceneaux, Chrishawn Hopkins, Joe Thomasson, Wright State; DJ Cole, Youngstown State; Marlin Mason, Cleveland State.

All Defensive Team
Jordan Fouse, Green Bay
Brandan Kearney, Detroit
Kiefer Sykes, Green Bay
JJ Panoske, Milwaukee
Charlie Lee, Cleveland State

All Freshman Team
Paris Bass, Detroit
Bryce Nickels, Youngstown State
Jalen Hayes, Oakland
Rod Davis, Wright State
Lance Whitaker, UIC

Fun to look back...