Attendance decline (free fall?)

[wh]

Following is a chronology of home attendance for the past 20 years, followed by a few random personal thoughts:

Year/Avg/Rank

2014  2833 19
2013  3173 17
2012  3383 14   Worst 5-years
2011  3362 15
2010  2739 20

2009  2973 18
2008  3666 10
2007  3520 12    2nd worst 5-years
2006  3353 16
2005  4174   5

2004  3945   7
2003  4376   2
2002  4530   1     Best 5-years
2001  4327   3
2000  4039   6

1999  4327   3
1998  3861   9
1997  3625  11     2nd best 5-years
1996  3886   8
1995  3446 13

Thoughts:
* Being honest, our move to the HL has been a complete bust in terms of impact on attendance (even with some big Butler games thrown in)
* Our attendance swan dive over the past 5 years has come at the same time we won 2 conf. championships and a conf. tournament championship and have been in the Top Tier throughout.
* I believe this is a completely accurate statement that the cost of season tickets has MORE than doubled since 2000. I know this has chased a lot of people away.

I am VERY interested in what others have to say about this...

[Pgmado]

These are very interesting numbers. I think you're missing one HUGE element that can't be overlooked. Technology has really taken over our lives in the last 10 years. Facebook first made the jump to full status around 2006/07 and there you see a decline in attendance. Twitter became widespread in 2009 and you see another big drop there. I'm not saying it is the main reason for the decline but it is hard to get fans to unplug themselves for three hours. That's my $0.02.

[a3uge]

You need to go back to 1991 :p

Attendance was 2031 per game. There's a lot of factors that determine attendance, but the undeniable two biggest factors are: 1. How you did last season. 2. How you're doing this season. It should be no surprise that the biggest attendance period came when the team made the postseason in 8 of 9 years (plus the season after). Its not a surprise that Valpo opened last year with the biggest out of state OOC attendance figure since MO State bracketbuster on ESPN2. If Valpo had some sustained success, attendance would jump right back up to the early 2000s level.

I have quite a bit of data with attendance averages. I don't have all of last year done, but I'll try to complete it and show some of the trends.

[valpo64]

I agree with a3uge..start winning regularly year in and year out and the attendance will go up.  I would imagine that over the next 3 years anyway we will see our attendance increase...maybe not alot next year but within the next 3 years.  I wonder if an upgraded ARC would help...restrooms, concession stands, lighting, improved seating, etc. would help.  I think it would.

[wh]

These are very interesting numbers. I think you're missing one HUGE element that can't be overlooked. Technology has really taken over our lives in the last 10 years. Facebook first made the jump to full status around 2006/07 and there you see a decline in attendance. Twitter became widespread in 2009 and you see another big drop there. I'm not saying it is the main reason for the decline but it is hard to get fans to unplug themselves for three hours. That's my $0.02.

Paul,
Average attendance across all of D-1 fell only 6% from 2000-2014, while Valpo's attendance for the same period fell a staggering 30%.  So, while "technology" may play some part in our decline, Valpo's attendance problem has to be much broader than that.

NCAA D-1 Avg. Attendance
2000 5123
2014 4817
Change -6.0%

Valpo Avg. Attendance
2000 4039 (last year we averaged > 4000)
2014 2833
Change -30%

[valpotx]

Each of you is missing the largest factor in the best 5 year period of attendance: I was attending the school ALL 5 years.  The evidence suggests that once I graduated, attendance fell off quite considerably.  I apologize to our basketball program for needing to come back to DFW

[valpo4life]

I'm sure being able to view games for free online has something to do with the drop in attendance.

[VULB#62]

Anyone come across any stats on college profits/losses on online subscription broadcasts?  WIU charges (though their broadcasting stinks). I look at VU as a national university, and with such a far-flug alumni base, promoting subscription online broadcasting might be profitable if it is marketed well and if there is more than just sports (e.g., concerts, distinguished lecturers, live on-campus events) included in the package.  Just wondering cuz I'd be willing to pay a yearly subscription if the quality and diversity of programming were there.

[wh]

Each of you is missing the largest factor in the best 5 year period of attendance: I was attending the school ALL 5 years.  The evidence suggests that once I graduated, attendance fell off quite considerably.  I apologize to our basketball program for needing to come back to DFW

I don't know how active you were in supporting men's basketball as a student, but I distinctly recall packed, rowdy student sections in those days, whether we were playing ORU, Chicago State or anyone in-between.  I remember students parading signs in front of the visitor's bench, like "0-13" at an Oakland game, "Chicago is not a state," etc., etc.  Some of the cheers were less than prim and proper, shall we say  . If an opponent dare show up with a cheering section, the student section was all over them with taunts.  Opposing players were taunted, as well.  There were great halftime shows like the Jessie White Tumblers, etc. And - I'm not positive about this, but wasn't a car awarded as a student attendance incentive?  I seem to remember one on display in front of the ARC entrance area with "win this car" signs on it, or something to that effect.

This has been suggested before by other posters, but the Athletic Department should invite some of the student leaders from the past back for a brainstorming session on how to engage students.     

[bbtds]

Each of you is missing the largest factor in the best 5 year period of attendance: I was attending the school ALL 5 years.  The evidence suggests that once I graduated, attendance fell off quite considerably.  I apologize to our basketball program for needing to come back to DFW

The key here is that due to much lower attendance at baseball games there was going to be a dramatic rise in attendance at MBB games which was directly attributable to valpotx.   

[historyman]

And with such a far-flug alumni base,

I believe the word is Fahrvergnügen. It means "driving enjoyment" in German. It was used by Volkswagen in one of it's US car ads. Nice try.

[jack]

Not sure how much of an impact it has, but I know that several groups get together and watch the live stream on these games now rather than attend them all. It probably happens more than you think.

[wh]

In looking at this 20-year history more closely, what I find most disturbing is the period from 2009 forward.  In 2009 we had a terrible team with a losing record, key players who had left the program, and a troublemaker sowing discord.  As would be expected, attendance that year fell to its lowest level in 15 years.  What I would not have expected is that despite dramatically improved W/L records since then (including 1st place finishes, exciting players and an NCAA appearance) attendance in 2014 was 5% lower than 2009.

When a quality basketball program on the rise doesn't generate more interest and support, you have a problem.  When a quality basketball program on the rise continues to lose interest and support, you have a MAJOR problem.


     

[a3uge]

I'm sure being able to view games for free online has something to do with the drop in attendance.

Anyone geeked up enough about Valpo basketball to the point where they're watching a grainy Horizon League online steam is probably going to go to more home games than the fans that don't watch any games online. The streams are a great way to keep alumni interested and are great for students when the team is on the road.

[jack]

I found that the streams are pretty good actually, on the home games I couldn't attend. To be honest, on several occasions I chose to stay in and watch the stream. If it wasn't available, I would have most likely headed to watch it live. I'm sure I'm not the only one. Again, I don't if it's enough to affect the numbers. With the stats that are listed, it would be interesting to incoporate the year that the streams were available.   

[LaPorteAveApostle]

Even more accurate would be the ability to see the online "attendance".

I agree it's a problem; but when even Alabama and Michigan football are trying to combat the issue, it's as much societal shift as that of our particular fan base.

[sliman]

I agree with all the comments about attendance being eroded by all the competition through online viewing, television, etc. plus the impact of bad weather.  Without a doubt this has caused some of our attendance drop.  I believe there also are more night classes than there were 12-15 years ago.  It also is a fact that attendance totals are more accurately estimated now than they were in the past because of the bar-code readers on tickets, sign-in for the student section, etc.  Previously a person facing the chair-back section would practically pull a number out of the air to use as the announced attendance with no clear picture of how full the upper mezzanine might be.  It's also easier to "track" student attendance now with the bleachers at the end of the floor than when students were more scattered among the crowd.  Of course, as has been posted here numerous times, the enthusiasm and energy transmitted by the crowd is more important than numbers.

[a3uge]

[Pgmado]

Ok, now let's look at another factor not considered. Who is the one counting the attendance? If you think that attendance figures are (or at least were) based on the actual amount of tickets sold or people passing through the turnstiles than you are being naive. It's essentially impossible to count the amount of people at a game. Students attend for free and without tickets. When I was a student (1999-2002) we'd often joke about the inflated attendance numbers that the Valpo SID staff would attach to each game. The current SID staff is considerably more realistic when it comes to the number of people attending the games. There has been a drop off over the years, I'm not disagreeing with that, but it's not nearly as big of a number as the stats would indicate. The attendance figures from at least the Lubos Barton era were almost always exaggerated.

[LaPorteAveApostle]

'it's not the people that vote who count, it's the people who count the votes!'

[wh]

Love the chart!  Great information!

[bbtds]

'it's not the people that vote who count, it's the people who count the votes!'

Only someone living in Chicago or Florida would truly understand this. Right Chad?

[Chairback]

Lower attendance has nothing to do with online streaming.  If anything it would help fan base by allowing fans to follow the team on away games.  Our target market for fans will not be those who will are inclined to stream home games.  It all comes down to product, price and perceived value.

I do think Valpo basketball is a great product.  However it is marketed HORRIBLY.  A few signs on rt 30 doesn't cut it.  The university missed the boat on this years ago and it has gotten worse. 

Price is an issue.  Of the 15 homes games there are usually 3-4 cupcake games against non D1.  368.75 for chairback season tickets is steep in my eyes for the quality of opponents that come to play at the ARC.  Also, no way the side sections of the chairbacks should be priced the same as the middle 3 sections.  I think the lower lever bleachers season tickets are a good value but any guy over 6 foot and 185 lbs needs practically two seats to sit in that section.  Upper bleachers should be right at 5 bucks per game and 10 for quality opponents.   I'm still shocked about last years "premium" game against Oakland where an upper bleacher seat was 20 bucks each.  Whoever priced that, and hopefully is reading this, should be embarrassed by the turnout for that game.

Value - I"m not sure a family of 4 or 5 is willing to spend 80-100 bucks to go see a game here.  The ARC needs to be updated bad from the fan and player experience.  How many years have we discussed the poor audio in the ARC?  Need more promotions to get families in the seats. 

[motowntitan]

I think it is more than the won-loss record:

See the following:

http://online.wsj.com/articles/at-college-football-games-student-sections-likely-to-have-empty-seats-1409188244

http://chicago.sportsmockery.com/post/8261/my-challenge-for-illini-nation

IMHO

1) This generation of students is instant gratification.  i.e. Why should I spend two+ hours at a game, when I can get the highlights later.
2) They are more a "Me" generation than ever before.
3) They may be sick of seeing many athletes (especially pro's) getting away with being morons.
4) I know here in Detroit, there has been a decline in the Catholic grade schools (and their sports) over the past 20 years.  It could be that this generation never played any sport, and therefore has no interest in following any team.

 

[valpotx]

Ok, now let's look at another factor not considered. Who is the one counting the attendance? If you think that attendance figures are (or at least were) based on the actual amount of tickets sold or people passing through the turnstiles than you are being naive. It's essentially impossible to count the amount of people at a game. Students attend for free and without tickets. When I was a student (1999-2002) we'd often joke about the inflated attendance numbers that the Valpo SID staff would attach to each game. The current SID staff is considerably more realistic when it comes to the number of people attending the games. There has been a drop off over the years, I'm not disagreeing with that, but it's not nearly as big of a number as the stats would indicate. The attendance figures from at least the Lubos Barton era were almost always exaggerated.

I think that you mean 1998-2002, right, or did you transfer in your SO year to be an RA for the BHG? 

I imagine that the numbers may have added a few hundred, but just about every game was filled to the top level of the Mezz, even those Chicago State beat-downs. 

Bbtds, what can I say, we had many more women fans in baseball than men, and not many women were college baseball fans