Opponents Scoreboard 2014-2015 Season

[wh]

Actually, expectations were pretty low for this year.  They were picked 5th in the HL preseason poll.  They're currently tied for 6th.  If not for recent injuries to 2 key players, they very likely would sitting in the 5th chair.

Wright State was hit hard by graduation, but was still picked fifth in the conference. The Raiders lost their top four scorers from a year ago and rank last in the Horizon League in both percentage of points returning (34.9%) and total minutes played last season (2,820). The Raiders are counting on senior Reggie Arceneux (League's top returning three-point shooter at 46.5%), junior Chrishawn Hopkins and sophomore TJ Yoho to replace the scoring lost.

Hopkins is a 5th year senior and Yoho is a junior.  Whoever wrote the HL article I pulled this quote from had it wrong.

[valpo64]

Remember when Reggie Arceneux was a freshman he was touted as one of the up and coming prospects as I remember.  I think he had a relatively good frosh year but never continued to improve as expected.  He still is a better than average player.

[oklahomamick]

Alright, going to watch CSU and Green Bay.  We want CSU to win in 8 over times. 

[covufan]

Alright, going to watch CSU and Green Bay.  We want CSU to win in 8 over times.

CSU up 10 with 8 minutes left!

[covufan]

Alright, going to watch CSU and Green Bay.  We want CSU to win in 8 over times.

CSU up 10 with 8 minutes left!

CSU up 11 with 2:25 left!

[covufan]

Alright, going to watch CSU and Green Bay.  We want CSU to win in 8 over times.

CSU up 10 with 8 minutes left!

CSU up 11 with 2:25 left!

CSU wins 76-62. We are now in control of our own destiny.

[valpotx]

Too bad that we couldn't hold on to a 7 point lead with 3:54 left at Oakland, and missed those 2 chances to win at GB.  We would be 22-2 (9-0) and probably ranked #25.

[oklahomamick]

I'm watching Oakland at YSU and there are probably 20 people in the stands.  I know Oakland is good, but YSU looks horrible. 

[bbtds]

I'm watching Oakland at YSU and there are probably 20 people in the stands.  I know Oakland is good, but YSU looks horrible. 

I know it's not a huge win since YSU hasn't done that well this year but it is the Golden Grizzlies first win on the road. Any road win is a good win. When Oakland plays at the ARC and at the Resch Center in Green Bay is when they will really be tested. Giving up 80 points to the Penguins means you don't play defense well. Probably one reason they don't foul a lot on the road.

[agibson]

Since when does Oakland score in the 90's, or even in the 80's, in regulation?

Has there been a change of style?

[bbtds]

Since when does Oakland score in the 90's, or even in the 80's, in regulation?

Has there been a change of style?

They can't give it to Bader to chuck up a bunch of missed threes? They shoot a much higher percentage? They don't foul on defense so that gives them more shot opportunities?

[FWalum]

IPFW is finally starting to play well after losing 5 of their first 6 conference games.  This after being picked to win the Summit.  Took Steve Forbes a while to get back to true form after the ankle injury that occurred right before our game with them.  They have now won 4 in a row including wins over the top 2 teams in the conference #120 South Dakota State (Last night 84-74) and #160 North Dakota State. They could conceivably win out with the way they are now playing.  Their toughest remaining game is away at North Dakota State.  The other teams in the Summit will probably not want to meet them in their tournament. 

[oklahomamick]

I know Detroit is young but there is too much talent on that team to lose to UIC at home by 10.   

[valporun]

Juwon Howard is having to try too hard to keep the Titans in games. He's not the greatest individual player.

[oklahomamick]

Juwon Howard is having to try too hard to keep the Titans in games. He's not the greatest individual player.

Lazy defensively and has put on some lb's.  However, the guy can find the hole. 

[a3uge]

Here's the state of the Horizon right now with RPI/BPI/KPOM/BracketMatrix:



Still working on incorporating Massey rankings

[vu72]

So if we tie with GB the tiebreaker is RPI?  Do we pass them RPI wise with a win Friday?

[Kyle321n]

So if we tie with GB the tiebreaker is RPI?  Do we pass them RPI wise with a win Friday?

There's a lot that would have to happen for the tie breaker with just GB and us to be RPI.

1. A win Friday night is necessary. That would tie our H2H record at 1-1.
2. Green Bay would have to win out. This means their H2H record vs. CSU and Oakland would be at 1-1 as well.
3. CSU would have to lose Detroit, Milwaukee or UIC so they finish with 4 losses. Oakland would already have 4 from losing to Green Bay.
4. We have to win the Milwaukee, Wright St. and Detroit, while losing to CSU.

Then the standings would be
t-1. Green Bay (13-3)
t-1. Valpo (13-3)
t-3. Oakland (12-4)
t-3. Cleveland St. (12-4)

Tie breakers would be:
1. Record (tied)
2. H2H Record (tied)
3. Record vs. Next highest teams (Oakland, 1-1 for both; CSU, 1-1 for both; rest of league, 2-0 for both)
4. RPI

Our SoS is so abmissmal that Green Bay almost undoubtedly has the better RPI in any situation.

What could* help us:
1. Missouri wins out. This would definitely help our Sagarin and probably help us out in most RPI formulas, though the one the HL uses isn't published. This would include wins at Arkansas, Vanderbilt, and Georgia and a win vs. Florida, all top 50 teams.
2. New Mexico wins out. See above. This would include wins at Colorado St. and Boise St. and vs. San Diego St, all top 100 teams.
3. If Murray St. loses our best W looks a lot worse. We need them to win out regardless.
4. Georgia St. loses out. This would be devastating for Green Bay's SoS as they are currently the second best W and second best L on their schedule. They play sub-150 teams for the rest of the season so that would tank their RPI.
5. Miami tanks it? This might help, but they already beat Duke. This is Green Bay's best W. Their schedule is tough but nothing about it says that if they lose out it's devastating.

I don't think Wisconsin doing anything would affect Green Bay's SoS. They are locked as a top-50 team. FGCU has a pretty decent impact on their RPI right now but they can't really move up or down a ton. EKU is in the same boat for us. Funnily enough the #1 team effecting them is us. So if we tank their RPI will drop, but ours would drop more.


TL;DR version: In order to host we need to have a game in hand against GB or beat them on another tiebreaker that comes before RPI.

[agibson]

Still working on incorporating Massey rankings

And AP/ESPN polls! 

Not sure how automated you are, but Warren Nolan's compilation could save counting
http://warrennolan.com/basketball/2015/schedule/Valparaiso
http://warrennolan.com/basketball/2015/rpi

Or, I suppose, you could stick to the top 25...

[agibson]

1. Missouri wins out. This would definitely help our Sagarin and probably help us out in most RPI formulas, though the one the HL uses isn't published.

I hope there's no dispute about the _formula_ used for RPI?  One does sometimes see difference among various sources, but I figure it comes down to:

1)How many games they're including (how up to date their DB, etc.)
2)Coding errors in home vs. away vs. neutral games

But, it is interesting that the Horizon points to one source, rather than the formula.  Basically, I guess, deferring the appeals process to appealing to that _source_ if they flub the calculation.

[Kyle321n]

1. Missouri wins out. This would definitely help our Sagarin and probably help us out in most RPI formulas, though the one the HL uses isn't published.

I hope there's no dispute about the _formula_ used for RPI?  One does sometimes see difference among various sources, but I figure it comes down to:

1)How many games they're including (how up to date their DB, etc.)
2)Coding errors in home vs. away vs. neutral games

But, it is interesting that the Horizon points to one source, rather than the formula.  Basically, I guess, deferring the appeals process to appealing to that _source_ if they flub the calculation.

They all use different ones.

RealTime RPI- 87
RPI forecast-81
Warren Nolan-81
College Basketball News (used for tie breakers)-81

You can see they all end up relatively the same, but there's difference.

[a3uge]

Still working on incorporating Massey rankings

And AP/ESPN polls! 

Not sure how automated you are, but Warren Nolan's compilation could save counting
http://warrennolan.com/basketball/2015/schedule/Valparaiso
http://warrennolan.com/basketball/2015/rpi

Or, I suppose, you could stick to the top 25...

That's a good idea (to count receiving votes as a rank). Everything is automated and scraped off various sites. I'm using ESPN to get the poll data now, since I already have the school names ESPN uses. Problem is Nolan and Massey refer to schools differently - VCU is Virginia Commonwealth on some sites and it gets bad with UWM and UWGB, etc. I never wanted to add Nolan's own index as its just not good (SFA is ranked #15). I guess I could use Nolan for the poll data, or write a formula that parses out ESPN's other receiving votes block of text.

Massey won't be too difficult to add, but Sagarin is virtually impossible. Wish I could find some other site that uses Sagarin's rankings so I can actually parse them. Working on the two MM polls as well.

[a3uge]

1. Missouri wins out. This would definitely help our Sagarin and probably help us out in most RPI formulas, though the one the HL uses isn't published.

I hope there's no dispute about the _formula_ used for RPI?  One does sometimes see difference among various sources, but I figure it comes down to:

1)How many games they're including (how up to date their DB, etc.)
2)Coding errors in home vs. away vs. neutral games

But, it is interesting that the Horizon points to one source, rather than the formula.  Basically, I guess, deferring the appeals process to appealing to that _source_ if they flub the calculation.

They all use different ones.

RealTime RPI- 87
RPI forecast-81
Warren Nolan-81
College Basketball News (used for tie breakers)-81

You can see they all end up relatively the same, but there's difference.

Wow, Realtime RPI is such a joke. The ONLY thing that's good about it is seeing quality wins vs bad losses easily.

[historyman]

I'm going to admit these ratings calculations are way beyond my scope and I would have to think at least very difficult for most of the people reading this thread.

[agibson]

I mean, I can't work them in my head.

But, I'd say the RPI's only moderately complicated
http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rating_Percentage_Index

Nothing beyond a middle school math assignment (project?), say.