Over-Under, 2015

[LaPorteAveApostle]

the results at the 2 month mark:  identical.

(Although if Chadwick hadn't missed that last 3-ball, his would have changed and then borne out my meme.)

we're consistent.  consistently AWESOME:

   Is   Result
Carter 3.7 APG   3.866666667   O
Nickerson 15 MPG   13.64   U
T Walker 4.1 GS   O   O
Joseph 1.0 SPG   0.666666667   U
D Walker 78% FT%   0.44   U
Skara 49% 2FG%   0.586956522   O
Fernandez 2.0 BPG   3.2   O
Davidson 45% FG%   37%   U
Adekoya 4.9 RPG   4.1   O
Peters 16.9 PPG   19   O
Chadwick 35% 3FG%   33.33%   U
Team:  20 W      O
TB: Team PPG      73.4 (this is down a bit, 2 ppg...maybe it'll change some ties? SPOILER ALERT: no.)

It's not close:
1) Valpo4Life 11
2) EddieCabot 9
3) Kyle321n 8 (who has 73.4 DEAD ON btw...where are you man?)
4) valpotx 8
5) Dave_2010 8
6) FWalum 8
7) Valpo2010 8
8) covufan 7
9) talksalot 7
10) wh 7
11) bbtds 7
12) classof2014 6
13) historyman 6
14) ARCInsider 6
15) valpo84 5
16) a3uge 5
17) pgmado 5

[historyman]

Adekoya 4.9 RPG   4.1   O

Recalculate---Jubril's is under. Unless you're using some kind of higher math I've never used before.

[Kyle321n]

Got the scoring right on you say? Crazy. When I looked at it before the JMU game I was off by a rounding error. I also thought that Chadwick's performance was going to make my prediction of 0% really off, but I'm still right with the under.

[LaPorteAveApostle]

Heh heh...just throwing that in there to see who would notice how much his production has fallen off.

that .... changes things a bit...

1) valpo4life 10
2) covufan 8
3) Eddie Cabot 8
4) wh 8
5) kyle321n 7
6) valpotx 7
7) Dave_2010 7
8) FWalum 7
9) valpo2010 7
10) historyman 7
11) talksalot 6
12) valpo84 6
13) a3uge 6
14) bbtds 6
15) classof2014 5
16) ARCinsider 5
17) pgmado 4

[covufan]

I like this much better!

[covufan]

I'm guessing that team win 21 may come in the HL tournament or other postseason game. 

Update/Edit:

Win 21 will come in early February, most likely on 4 February. 

[Kyle321n]

Well if we drop 98 points on UIC I will still have the tie breaker dead on at the end of January. Right now Valpotx and Talksalot have the tie breaker pegged at 72.3

[LaPorteAveApostle]

Couple of things have changed in the last month, and made everything topsy-turvy.

I've now "called" 3 categories.  The first of course was Tevonn starting more than 4 games; the latest two are Vashil's BPG, which will still be 2 even if he goes 0-for the rest of the season, and the team getting over 20 wins, because ... we're not going to lose out. 

Stats thus far are:
Carter 3.7 APG   3.823529412   O
Nickerson 15 MPG   17.2   O
T Walker 4.1 GS   O   O
Joseph 1.0 SPG   0.4   U
D Walker 78% FT%   59.6   U
Skara 49% 2FG%   58.2   O
Fernandez 2.0 BPG   O   O
Davidson 45% FG%   36%   U
Adekoya 4.9 RPG   4.3   U
Peters 16.9 PPG   17.8   O
Chadwick 35% 3FG%   33.33%   U
Team:  20 W   O   O
TB: Team PPG   72.3   

1) valpo4life 11
2) historyman 10
3) covufan 9
4) EddieCabot 9
5) wh 9
6) valpotx 8
7) Dave2010 8
8) FWAlum 8
9) valpo2010 8
10) bbtds 8
11) talksalot 7
12) valpo84 7
13) a3uge 7
14) classof2014 6
15) ARCinsider 6
16) pgmado 5

[Pgmado]

My account was hacked.

[Kyle321n]

Did I get disqualified for adding my awesome Bryce technicals question?

[LaPorteAveApostle]

whoops.  erm.

you have 8. and are 8.

1) valpo4life 11
2) historyman 10
3) covufan 9
4) EddieCabot 9
5) wh 9
6) valpotx 8
7) Dave2010 8
8) Kyle321n 8
9) FWAlum 8
10) valpo2010 8
11) bbtds 8
12) talksalot 7
13) valpo84 7
14) a3uge 7
15) classof2014 6
16) ARCinsider 6
17) pgmado 5

[Kyle321n]

whoops.  erm.

you have 8. and are 8.

[bbtds]

29 games in, 2/22/2015 update.



1)  Keith Carter:  3.7 apg     3.684    U

2)  EV Nickerson:  15 mpg    18.3      O

3)  Tevonn Walker:  4.1 gs    28        O

4)  Max Joseph:  1.0 spg       0.32       U

5)  Darien Walker:  78% FT%   60.6%   U

6)  David Skara:  49% 2FG%  56.1%  O

7)  Vashil Fernandez:  2.0 bpg  2.90    O

8)  Nick Davidson:  45% FG%   36.4%  U

10)  Jubril Adekoya:  4.9 rpg     4.3     U

11)  Alec Peters:  16.9 ppg       17.0    O

12)  David Chadwick:  35% 3FG% 30.0%  U

13)  Team:  20 wins                25       O

14)  Tie-breaker--team points per game, to 3 sig figs    71.5



covufan            10
EddieCabot        10
valpo4life          10
wh                   10

Dave_2010         9
FWalum             9
talksalot             9
Valpo 2010         9
valpotx              9

a3huge               8
historyman          8

ArcInsider           7
bbtds                  7
class of 2014        7
Kyle321n             7
pgmado               7

valpo84                6

justducky              3 (really 2 but threw in #9 to help)

please check the work carefully!!

[justducky]

justducky              3 (really 2 but threw in #9 to help)

Hey wait--- My goal here was to finish last and now you seem to think I got something right!  I demand a recount!! 

[historyman]

corrections, of course. BTW, thanks for helping me drop a lot of rungs..............I feel like I've been through a UWGB training camp.
You know, lots of running up and down hills.............


covufan  10  72.7  [+1.2]
EddieCabot  10  69.4  [-2.1]
valpo4life  10  69.4  [-2.1]
wh  10  68.4  [-3.1]

Dave_2010  9  71.9  [+.4]
FWalum  9  70.8  [-.7]
Valpo2010  9  70.1  [-1.4]
valpotx  9  72.3  [+.8]

a3huge  8  70.0  [-1.5]
historyman  8  68.4 [-3.1]
talksalot  8  72.3  [+.8]

ArcInsider  7  62.3  [-9.2]
bbtds  7  62.9  [-8.6]
classof2014  7  69.4  [-2.1]
Kyle321n  7  73.4  [+1.9]
pgmado  7  68.7  [-2.8]

valpo84  6  70.235  [-1.265]

justducky  2  no points guess


EDIT: I added in the points guesses so you can see where things could go.

[bbtds]

There are some very close categories. The two that really stand out are Carter's assists and Alec's ppg. There are three people hoping Alec is short of 17 points in at least one of the games. You know who you are. Since Valpo can win without Alec scoring 17 there is nothing wrong with hoping your prediction is correct.

There are 5 that want Keith to get 8 assists combined in the two remaining games. As for the majority wanting Keith to have less than 8 assists in 2 games.........well.........since Valpo can win without 8 assists from Keith there is nothing wrong with that, I really, really hope!

As far as average points for the season. More people are leaning for a lower score than 70 for the two games. Against Cleve St that is more probable. We scored 78 on Detroit at the ARC and 58 on CSU at the ARC.

[LaPorteAveApostle]

REGULAR SEASON UPDATE
aka shakeup

1) FWAlum 10
2) a3uge 9
t3) valpo4life 9
t3) valpo2014 9
5) wh 9
6) covufan 9
7) valpo2010 8
8) dave2010 8
9) valpotx 8
10) valpo84 7
11) historyman 7
12) talksalot 7
13) classof2014 6
14) kyle321n 6
15) bbtds 6
16) ARCInsider 6
17) pgmado 5

obviously this would seem to calcify the further we get into the year, but a couple of these are on knife-edge.  the two categories that have shifted are denoted by the bold above--KC's APG and Alec's PPG, shifting from over to under.

Let's put aside our petty competitive differences at this point and root for both to be over

[historyman]

Who was competitive? I could have almost got 7 by flipping a coin.

Congrats to FWalum! Very impressive!

I had a feeling that both Keith and Alec were going to fall just short of their over/under numbers. The last opponents didn't bode well for an outstanding finish by either of those players.

[LaPorteAveApostle]

At the 3:35 mark of the 2nd half, you might remember, Vashil put home a layup to pull us within one.  (unfortunately, that would be the last basket I would see, for reasons I don't care to go into.)

But what that one play did was flip the whole season's O/U away from FWAlum to the new champ, "valpo4life", because the flush was off a KC assist, giving him 3.708 apg for the season.  His O/U was set at 3.7.  (I'm sure FWAlum was so happy at the time he doesn't even mind now.)

But that's how close things were! (clicking embiggens)

I guess I'm running out of things to say, and for some reason the graphic is a lot of white space, so I guess just looking at this will do the talking for me:

Congrats, valpo4life, winner of the GOLD and to our own pgmado, winner of the... BROWN.

[valpo4life]

Hey hey at least I had something go my way over the past two days! This over/under contest could be ridiculously hard to pick next season...

[wh]

At the 3:35 mark of the 2nd half, you might remember, Vashil put home a layup to pull us within one.  (unfortunately, that would be the last basket I would see, for reasons I don't care to go into.)

But what that one play did was flip the whole season's O/U away from FWAlum to the new champ, "valpo4life", because the flush was off a KC assist, giving him 3.708 apg for the season.  His O/U was set at 3.7.  (I'm sure FWAlum was so happy at the time he doesn't even mind now.)

But that's how close things were! (clicking embiggens)

I guess I'm running out of things to say, and for some reason the graphic is a lot of white space, so I guess just looking at this will do the talking for me:

Congrats, valpo4life, winner of the GOLD and to our own pgmado, winner of the... BROWN.

I need to correct the record. I finished tied for 3rd, not 6th. The secondary tie breaker should be for tournament seeding only! 

[historyman]

Hey hey at least I had something go my way over the past two days! This over/under contest could be ridiculously hard to pick next season...

What do you mean "next season?"

[talksalot]

What do you mean "next season?"
      

OK... here's the first category:   

Power 5 schools on the Schedule:    O/U is 1.7

and I'll give you .5 if we have to beat someone to GET to play a Power-5 in a tournament.

[valpo4life]

I would lean towards taking the over. If my memory is correct, we don't have many return games next year so that would allow for opportunities with an empty calendar to slot games into. Bryce will be able to try and schedule tougher because he knows what he has going into next season. The 2012-2013 team had games at Nebraska, New Mexico, Saint Louis, and Murray State. I realize only one of those is technically a Power 5 school, but the other 3 we're quite formidable that year. New Mexico was Top 20 when we went there. So heading into 2015-2016, with what we all may expect to be the best team we've had in years, I would expect 4 or 5 games against schools that are either Power 5 or in the top of their respected league, respected being the key word there. Can't expect much more than that.