Coaches' Challenge 2014-15

[LaPorteAveApostle]

Let's call this a corollary to the Over/Under prediction.

You predict the mpg for the whole team for the year.  Might not be what you WANT to see happen, but what you think WILL end up happening.

Here's the roster:  give it a shot before tip on Friday and predict their end-of-year minutes-per-game average.  3 sig figs, although giving just two is fine, we'll assume ".0" in that case.

Won't have to perfectly add up to 200 but should come pretty close.  This could be fun.

K Carter
EV Nickerson
T Walker
M Joseph
D Walker
D Skara
V Fernandez
N Davidson
J Adekoya
A Peters
D Chadwick

Let's say...
"on the money" -- accurate to 3 sig figs, 75 points
"close enough" -- +/- 1 mpg, 20 pts
"eh...yeah" -- +/- 1 to 3 mpg, 5 pts

how's that sound?  and yes, h-man, I'll be in on this one for sure.

[bbtds]

Whole Valpo MBB team>>>>>207.5 mpg



K Carter>>>>>25.4
EV Nickerson>>>>>19.4
T Walker>>>>>20.6
M Joseph>>>>>11.7
D Walker>>>>>23.2
D Skara>>>>>15.9
V Fernandez>>>>>23.0
N Davidson>>>>>4.8
J Adekoya>>>>>21.7
A Peters>>>>>33.4
D Chadwick>>>>>8.4

[chef]

If I understand it correctly, the MPG should add up to quite a bit more than 200. A 200 total would only be correct if every player appeared in every game. Since that's not going to happen, I'd guess somewhere around 220 minutes should be a more accurate total.

[bbtds]

If I understand it correctly, the MPG should add up to quite a bit more than 200. A 200 total would only be correct if every player appeared in every game. Since that's not going to happen, I'd guess somewhere around 220 minutes should be a more accurate total.

There is a finite number of games (as an example say 30) and five players in the game for each of the 40 minutes of each game. that's 30 X 5 X 40=6,000 minutes in a 30 game season. Unless you round numbers up and down and that causes the total to go up slightly over 200, the total minutes should be 6,000 exactly in a 30 game season. If Nick Davidson plays in 10 games and gets 38 minutes exactly in those 10 games then his average mpg is 3.8 mpg. If Alec Peters plays in all 30 games and totals 1,003.3 minutes that is 33.4433333 mpg. If you round that to 33.4 then you would miss 1.29999 minutes on the season. This up and down rounding should still come very close to 6,000 minutes for a 30 game season. I don't think you can gain 20 minutes but at the most around 5 to 10 minutes in a full season.

[wh]

Chef is correct.  The sum of last year's individual averages was 221 (not 200), but even that's just a number.  It could have been higher or lower, depending on the number of games missed due to injuries, illness, etc. Similarly, individual playing time over the long haul will be influenced as much by who gets pressed into service as by relative ability of the players, rendering the outcome of the contest more about luck of the draw than skill of the predictors.  It's a fun idea, and I'm not trying to pour cold water on it. I'm just not sure it has enough meaning.

[a3uge]

The total MP don't add because there was a 3 OT game. Rounding issues are irrelevant because each box score requires a proper sum of minutes. In 34 games, the expected minutes were 6800+75(for the 3OT game). The actual minutes played was 6875.

According to sports reference, the sum of the avg mpg was 209.5, but with the 3 OT game, why doesn't it add up to 202.2....? Or in seasons with no OT games, why isn't it 200?

Here's why: MPG is calculated per game the player appears in, not per game the team plays. Keith Carter averaged 18.5 MPG, but played 407 minutes total. He was ineligible the first half, so he appeared in 22 games, not 34. So his MP 407 of 34 games would be 12.0 MPG, while 407 of 22 games (games he appeared in) is 18.5, which is the common number stats sites use. So the numbers don't add up to 200 because appearances and overtimes.

I think that makes more sense.

[Kyle321n]

I'm going to assume they play 33 games (31 reg season and 2 post season, that may be pessimistic for some, but I think it's a realistic expectation for them to get the 1st round bye, win the second round game and then lost the semifinal)

Player	GP	MPG	Total Min
V Fernandez	33	22.1	729.3
J Adekoya	33	30.3	999.9
A Peters	33	31.5	1039.5
T Walker	33	21.5	709.5
K Carter	33	33.3	1098.9
D Walker	33	21.4	706.2
D Skara	33	15.3	504.9
EV Nickerson	30	11.3	339
M Joseph	29	10.6	307.4
D Chadwick	22	5.2	114.4
N Davidson	15	3.4	51

My MPG adds up to 205.9 but my total minutes add up to 6600 exactly. I would recommend you figure how many games the Crusaders will play then figure how many games the players will play. Once you've done that just make sure your total minutes add up to your games played x 200.

[bbtds]

I obviously was looking at this coming season with many variables being defined numbers such as 30 games, 40 minutes per game and no injuries or NCAA mandated holdouts. All this should not effect individual predictions because each one is hit or miss. It is truly irrelevant what the totals add up to. If your first guess if off than you're working with a new total goal for your next guess.

LAA was trying to help us with realistic guesses by saying the totals should be close to a certain number. That was helpful and wise but it should not define the last individual prediction you make.   

[LaPorteAveApostle]

LAA was trying to help us with realistic guesses by saying the totals should be close to a certain number. That was helpful and wise but it should not define the last individual prediction you make.   

Thank you.  Just so people are within the realm of possibility.  I said "not perfectly" but close.  a3uge is right about why it never makes exactly 200 (and is never below).

E.g., I had totaled the HL's mpg for the 2012-13 season (plus OAK when I was looking at returnees).  The sum total of the team averages are around 200, but not exactly (as I said).  The reason, as bbtds said, is to give people something to shoot for, but also so that people don't dole out minutes so generously that they total 300.  Part of being a good coach is allocating limited resources appropriately.

Detroit 207.8
Valpo 217.9
WSU 226.3
UWGB 227.8
UIC 222.3
YSU 223.5
Loyola (grr) 237.5
CSU 237.6
UWM 244.2
Oakland 215.4

Another good rule of thumb that might guide you (besides 200) is to break it up 1-5.  E.g, at the 1, Keith Carter 30 min, M Joseph 10; etc.  This will allow you to see how players that play different positions might spend only so many minutes at the 4, but also minutes at the 3 (just a f'r instance).

You don't have to do it, of course.  I thought it might be nice to sit in the coach's chair, as it were, take off your jacket, and think about how you distribute the minutes appropriately. (In some ways, it's almost easier to have Hammink and Levingston sitting because then you don't have to worry about working THEM in too...)  We have 11 eligible this year, and we're certainly not going to have an 11-man rotation, but it might be as deep as 9, especially this early.

Don't worry about total minutes played because that obviously depends on a lot of things that make it more complex than predicting an average (although I admire you for that Kyle : )

[historyman]

K Carter               23.0
EV Nickerson               18.1
T Walker               26.2
M Joseph               9.9
D Walker               24.2
D Skara               19.7
V Fernandez               23.4
N Davidson               4.9
J Adekoya               24.3
A Peters                36.5
D Chadwick               9.7

[Kyle321n]

A Peters                36.5

I saw this and went "Wow, Historyman is riding Peters hard. I wonder if Bryce ever went 36mpg for an entire season." The answer is he didn't, the most he went was 35.4 (close though and the 36 min guess would have gotten you 25 points). So I decided to look at BBState and see what the highest total we've seen.

Does anyone want to take a guess?

I'll spoiler the answer but if you click on the underline it will take you to the answer: link

[wh]

It would not surprise me at all if Alec routinely plays 36-37 MPG. That said it's one thing to routinely do it; it's another thing to average it.  He may get into foul trouble from time to time and have to sit for extended periods. We also play 3 non D-1 opponents where his services will hopefully not be required for 90% of the game.

[LaPorteAveApostle]

Kyle, nice research.  Is that like ever, in the D1 era?

I would not think that him hitting that number is a good thing...asking for trouble/diminishing returns.

[historyman]

My thoughts were that Alec stays healthy and there are others that will get hurt. So Bryce will be forced to overuse Peters so that Valpo stays in the competitive games. The Crusaders never go a whole season without some players getting injured.

[covufan]

K Carter  - 23.6
EV Nickerson  - 18.6
T Walker  - 19.2
M Joseph - 16.9
D Walker - 19.8
D Skara - 14.2
V Fernandez - 23.4
N Davidson  - 8.8
J Adekoya - 23.2
A Peters - 32.7
D Chadwick - 13.5

[Kyle321n]

Kyle, nice research.  Is that like ever, in the D1 era?

I would not think that him hitting that number is a good thing...asking for trouble/diminishing returns.

That's since 1997 since that's all BBState has. I wouldn't know previous to that but I have a hard time believing anyone prior to Bryce would pull down those kind of minutes.

[LaPorteAveApostle]

Actually it's probably MORE likely in that when the teams weren't as deep...

I wouldn't be surprised to learn that Tracy Gipson or Harry Bell went higher, I guess.  Not sure how to find that...yet.

[LaPorteAveApostle]

K Carter   32.1
EV Nickerson   20.7
T Walker   10.8
M Joseph   12.2
D Walker   14.5
D Skara   16.4
V Fernandez   24.9
N Davidson   6.0
J Adekoya   29.8
A Peters   35.3
D Chadwick   14.6

[beastkiller]

K Carter-24
EV Nickerson-21
T Walker-25
M Joseph-10
D Walker-22
D Skara-15
V Fernandez-26
N Davidson-5
J Adekoya -27
A Peters-32
D Chadwick-10

[LaPorteAveApostle]

Actually it's probably MORE likely in that when the teams weren't as deep...

I wouldn't be surprised to learn that Tracy Gipson or Harry Bell went higher, I guess.  Not sure how to find that...yet.

Well, Tracy Gipson played nearly 3800 minutes.
http://www.valpoathletics.com/athletics/hofmembers/2001-02/2861/tracy-gipson/#.VGaSo0vTWLA

And the team played 110 games in his time (he started 101), so assuming he played every game, he averaged AT LEAST 34.5 for his career, and you would assume he played more in his jr/sr year.  Just the 101 we know he played would be 37.6 mpg!

EDIT:  Figured it out:  I divided his career scoring by his career average. 109 games, or 34.8 for his career.  Wow.  Bryce was 35.1, Oppland 30.2 (36 as jr, 34 sr).  Harry Bell...would love to know.

[LaPorteAveApostle]

Thought I'd take stock of how this was going.



Interesting that Vashil is the one on which we were all closest; nobody got Alec or KC (so far).

1) historyman 70
2) LPAA 50
3) beastkiller 40
4) covufan 35
5) bbtds 30
6) kyle321n 10

maybe should re-calibrate the scores (key is in LLH corner of graphic), but eh, dunno, weird game anyway : )

[historyman]

Did anyone notice that the guy in first place in this thread, Coaches' Challenge, with 70 is also the guy who jumped from 10th place to 2nd place in the Over/Under thread?

No? That's what I thought.

I'm so happy I can't concentrate enough to check Laporte's work.   

[historyman]

Well, this will teach me not to check Laporte's work right off.

Isn't 18.1 within one of EVN's 17.2? Should EVN's column be counted as 20 points for "you-know-who" instead of 5 points for a total of 85 points?

Or were you checking to see if I was checking your work?

EDIT: Just noticed another mistake that will help Laporte. In mjoseph's column 12.2 is within one of 11.9 so 15 points should be added to Laporte's total for a Laporte total of 65.

2nd EDIT: Another mistake--also in mjoseph's column--11.7 is within one of 11.9--therefore 15 points should be added to bbtds's total for a bbtds total of 45. 

[vusupporter]

Historyman, you're within .3 on Skara as well

[historyman]

Historyman, you're within .3 on Skara as well

Thanks for doing the checking for me. That moves my total to 100 then. Laporte, that new baby has you too tired to do this kind of math late at night.