Valpo vs Drake at Nashville Municipal Auditorium Friday 11/28/2014 5:00p.m. CT

[historyman]

I've not seen that any of the schools' websites or the Challenge in Music City website are showing live video for these games. It looks like audio only.

Drake is 0-3 after losses to Bowling Green at Des Moines by 19, DePaul and Western Michigan (is it Wemisch?) on the road by 18 and 16 respectively.

The Bulldogs are low on the totem pole in the MO-Valley.

Drake takes on IUPUI at the Knapp Center in Des Moines on Tuesday before heading to Nashville. That game will help us evaluate our chances but so far Valpo's chances of winning lean heavily in our favor.

Murray State is the quasi host of this Challenge in Music City event as they play the OVC tournament every year in the Nashville Municipal Auditorium. Although to Murray it's OVC members Belmont and Tenn State that are actually in Nashville.

[78crusader]

Drake is located here in Des Moines, where I live.

Agree that we should beat them.  They are picked to finish either last or next-to-last in the MVC.  However, they have been without their best player, Gary Ricks, who was suspended for the first three games of the year.  Not sure of the reason for the suspension.  I think it will be a very close game. 

Paul

[vu72]

Drake is located here in Des Moines, where I live.

Agree that we should beat them.  They are picked to finish either last or next-to-last in the MVC.  However, they have been without their best player, Gary Ricks, who was suspended for the first three games of the year.  Not sure of the reason for the suspension.  I think it will be a very close game. 

Paul

It may be close but shouldn't be.  If it is we are not moving forward.  On a nuetral court I think we win by 12-15.  Best player asside, Valpo shouldn't be challenged by a bottom feeder in the Valley.  They lost to DePaul by 18 while UIC lost to Depaul by 1.

[classof2014]

We should win this game by double figures, I'm guessing around 15. Drake will technically be in the game until 5 or so minutes left in the game.

Both Vashil and KC seem to be hitting their stride as they both had great weekends along with Alec.

KC - 6-10 13 pts, 11 assists, 4 steals, 5 TOs
Vashil - 6-9 17 pts, 13 boards, 11 blocks, 4 steals, 3 TOs

Alec - 18-26, 5-10 3pts, 50 points, 13 RBs, 4 TOs (astonishing numbers in only 50 minutes of game-time this weekend)

We need both of them to step up this season, Drake is better than AR-PB and Maine but not by a whole heck of a lot. On a neutral court we should win by 15 or so and have control of the game from the get-go, with a 12 point lead at half and cruise in the second for an easy win.

My guess

Valpo 73

Drake 58

[talksalot]

It's too early to use Sagarin or RealTime RPI for comparison... obviously not "normalized" yet... Wide difference of opinion

RPI is Through Games Saturday 11/21 (the Valpo win over Maine is not included, Sagarin is as of 11/23

                      SAGARIN            REALTIMERPI
Valpo                #165                     #198
Drake               # 277                     # 76
Murray State    #  95                      #301                     
Portland           #141                      #242 

I see us pounding Drake, Playing to a tight win over Murray State... and then losing to Portland's Giants (I know they are the pilots, but with 4 players 6'10" or taller, they are ineligible to be pilots.

[78crusader]

I predict the game will be much closer than you think...and I'm not convinced that Vashil scoring 17 points in two games over 2 of the weakest 5 teams on our schedule is the start of a new era.  He disappears in games against better quality opponents. 

Paul

[wh]

With the loss of Creighton and the recent decline of formerly strong programs like Southern Illinois, Bradley and Drake, plus the subtraction by addition of Loyola, the MVC is a mere shadow of its former self.  They have gone from a multi-bid league to Wichita State and everyone else seemingly over night.  Even with our inexperience, we should be able to handle a bottom feeding MVC team. 

[vu72]

I looked at a recent box score and found their starting five to include 2 seniors, a sophomore and 2 freshman.  Off the bench they bring 2 more freshman and a senior.  Size wise they start a 7 footer (sophomore), and 6'6", 6'3", 6'1" and 5'10". Based on these guys, we should have a size advantage at 4 of 5 spots.  Off the bench they have  a 6'2" freshman, a 6'6" senior and much less time for a 6'11" freshman.

Obviously they are relying heavily on young guys, as do we!  Of their 8 deep, 4 are freshman, and 1 is a sophomore.

[classof2014]

With the loss of Creighton and the recent decline of formerly strong programs like Southern Illinois, Bradley and Drake, plus the subtraction by addition of Loyola, the MVC is a mere shadow of its former self.  They have gone from a multi-bid league to Wichita State and everyone else seemingly over night.  Even with our inexperience, we should be able to handle a bottom feeding MVC team. 

The MVC might not be what it once was but it is still much better than the HL. They still have the Shockers and some decent programs in, Northern Iowa, Illinois State, Indiana State, and Evansville, would all be top HL teams and possibly win the HL. Drake, Missouri State, and Bradley aren't very good this season but have have had decent seasons in the past. Yes, they do have Loyola (good riddance) and SIU which are plain bad but I'd still rather be in the MVC than the HL.

The post-Creighton era means the MVC isn't as good as it once was but it is still better than the HL.

The MVC is currently 17-14, with 3 undefeated

The HL is currently 17-20, with no undefeated

The MVC is a level above the HL. They have a top-tier program in Wichita St, and Northern Iowa is a high-level mid-major that would compete for the HL crown as would Indiana St, Illinois St, and Evansville. Beating a poor Drake team will look good simply because they come from a stronger conference.

[valpotx]

Interesting to see how much Drake has dropped off since that stellar run a few seasons back.  One player coming back won't make up the difference in some of those scores mentioned. 

Valpo 77
Drake 64

Whatever classof2014 is drinking today, I want some!  To say that the MVC is much better than the HL is a joke.  Yes, I would rather be in that conference due to the affiliations with more like-minded programs, but they are not a 'class above the HL.'  If they played more road games, their records wouldn't be as high.  The MVC has always scheduled very favorably in getting home games, and making sure that their refs give a large home court advantage (cough...Evansville...cough cough).

[Kyle321n]

I prefer to use KenPom for my evaluation especially this early in the season. Seems to have the best available data on the limited number of games (Also I have the subscription for it)

Valpo               #155

Drake               #272
Murray State     #79
Portland           #117

Drake is one of the few teams in country with less experience than us with 1.19 years (We have 1.35, remember when we were #1 in the country with 2.73 yrs with Rowdy and Co.? We will soon get back to that with Alec and Co.)

Senior Chris Caird is their "go-to guy" when they have the ball, he uses the possession (ie: he shoots with no off. rebound or has a turnover) nearly 30% of the time. He plays a little like Rowdy did, shooting 15 threes and 13 twos (he averages 13.3 ppg). The other guy we need to watch out for is Reed Timmer, through 3 games he's almost an identical player to Tevonn. I see Keith guarding him more because they have 2 other guards who start and they would be better assignments for the Tevonn. They also have a Vashil, a 7 foot project player named Jacob Enevold Jensen. Should be interesting to see how Vashil does against another "real" big.  He didn't look good Rosburg at Mizzou, but the team didn't look good there.

We should be able to beat Drake, but I don't know if it's the drubbing everyone thinks it will be. KenPom gives us a 73%   chance of winning with the spread at 5 points.

[vu72]

Interesting to see how much Drake has dropped off since that stellar run a few seasons back.  One player coming back won't make up the difference in some of those scores mentioned. 

Valpo 77
Drake 64

Whatever classof2014 is drinking today, I want some! To say that the MVC is much better than the HL is a joke.  Yes, I would rather be in that conference due to the affiliations with more like-minded programs, but they are not a 'class above the HL.'  If they played more road games, their records wouldn't be as high.  The MVC has always scheduled very favorably in getting home games, and making sure that their refs give a large home court advantage (cough...Evansville...cough cough).

I suspect "too much coffee" as he is also repeating himself!

They still have the Shockers and some decent programs in, Northern Iowa, Illinois State, Indiana State, and Evansville, would all be top HL teams and possibly win the HL

They have a top-tier program in Wichita St, and Northern Iowa is a high-level mid-major that would compete for the HL crown as would Indiana St, Illinois St, and Evansville.


Slow down!!   

[Grizz]

In a year that we went 7-9 in the Horizon League we beat Illinois State by 15. No chance that Illinois State could have competed for the Horizon League championship. But then 2014 didn't think Bader was any good either.

[LaPorteAveApostle]

Bader let that one go, pal.

I don't think the MVC is down as much as you would like.  At any rate, the early returns on the HL this year are not good.  We're not 17-20 in real life.  Could be a year equivalent to B1G football for us--some steady, most down.

[classof2014]

In a year that we went 7-9 in the Horizon League we beat Illinois State by 15. No chance that Illinois State could have competed for the Horizon League championship. But then 2014 didn't think Bader was any good either.

Never said Bader was no good, just that he was one-dimensional and all he did was shoot 3's. When he was on he was great and could beat anyone but when he was off they Grizzlies could lose to anyone, you live by the 3 and die by the 3 and that was the case with Bader but that is neither here nor there since Bader has graduated.

Just by saying you beat Illinois State means they wouldn't have competed for the HL title is plane stupid. IL St, was 9-9 probably would've been 3rd in the HL at 11-5 or something like that. Chances are if Oakland was in the MVC they would be a 5-13 team or something like that. And by going off the logic of because we beat them we are better, than back in the 10/11 season Valpo was national runner up because they beat Butler in the regular season and Butler played for the national championship.

Still the MVC is stronger than the HL, they have better teams, better programs, and stronger competition. They are still a mid-major conference but are a level above the HL.

[valpo64]

It will be interesting to compare some of the up-coming competition as IUPUI beat Ball State last weekend.  Also. IPFW is predicted to win the Summit.

[talksalot]

and everything balances out in the end... over the past 29
years (since the ARC opened)

in the
First game of year, we are 16-13
Second game of the year, we are 15-14
Third game of the year, we are 16-13
Fourth game of the year, we are 15-14
Fifth game of the year, we are 16-13

Looking ahead... over the past 28 years...
6  (Drake) 16-12
7  (Murray) 15-13
8  (Portland)  11-17
9  (EKY) 14-14
10 (UNM) 15-13
11 (Trinity) 13-15
12 (Ball State) 19-9  !
13 (IPFW)  17-11
14 (Goshen)  16-12
15 (JMU) 11-17


The Best Record we have is game #26  we are 21-7 (this year Oakland at home)
The Worst Record we have is game #27, we are 9-19 (this year Green Bay at home)

OH, Since Bryce became coach... we have scored exactly 7,500 points (given up 6,860)  74.26 ppg vs 67.92 oppg.

[valpotx]

Your league is not a level above another league, if your conference RPI is, on average, only 3 places above the other league.  Heck, during the 2010-2011 season, the HL was one spot above the MVC .  You are basing your opinion on 8-10 years ago, when the MVC routinely put 2-4 teams into the tourney.  It isn't the same conference over the last few years.  Yes, their top teams have more success when they get to the tourney, but the conference as a whole is VERY similar to the HL in terms of quality.

[Kyle321n]

Guys the MVC is very good. The top of the league is comparable to the big east and really the top 3 would probably do alright in any of the Power 7s. Hell Wichita would probably be picked to win any thing but the B1G, B12 and ACC and Northern Iowa stands a chance of getting an at large. If Green Bay or CSU got an at large (CSU ISN'T getting an at large after losing to Savannah St.) I'd die of shock. Their mid-level is very comparable to our mid-level. Evansville, Indiana St. and Missouri (Don't call them Mizzou) St are all on the same level as Wright St. and Valpo. Their bottom tier is better than our bottom tier, but if we did a Big 10-ACC style challenge their bottom would beat our bottom when at home while we'd win ours while at home. If you take out Wichita for this challenge here's how it'd break down:

MVC	KenPom	Horizon	KenPom	Result
Northern Iowa	63	Green Bay	83	UNI Both
Illinois St.	94	Cleveland St.	99	Split
Evansville	122	Detroit	139	Evansville Both
Indiana St.	144	Wright St.	152	Split
Missouri St.	157	Valparaiso	155	Split
Southern Illinois	171	Oakland	209	SIU Both
Loyola Chicago	178	Milwaukee	213	LU-C Both
Bradley	257	Youngstown St.	240	YSU Both
Drake	272	Illinois Chicago	284	Split

This would lead to an 11-7 MVC win and this is leaving out the fact that Wichita would trounce every team and if you slide every team down a slot then you've got trouble. The MVC is a head better than us, but it's not like we're the Summit or SWAC. We're still a top 5 mid major conference and should our 1 seed win the conference each year we'll get a 12-13 seed in the dance.

[vu72]

Guys the MVC is very good. The top of the league is comparable to the big east and really the top 3 would probably do alright in any of the Power 7s. Hell Wichita would probably be picked to win any thing but the B1G, B12 and ACC and Northern Iowa stands a chance of getting an at large. If Green Bay or CSU got an at large (CSU ISN'T getting an at large after losing to Savannah St.) I'd die of shock. Their mid-level is very comparable to our mid-level. Evansville, Indiana St. and Missouri (Don't call them Mizzou) St are all on the same level as Wright St. and Valpo. Their bottom tier is better than our bottom tier, but if we did a Big 10-ACC style challenge their bottom would beat our bottom when at home while we'd win ours while at home. If you take out Wichita for this challenge here's how it'd break down:

MVC	KenPom	Horizon	KenPom	Result
Northern Iowa	63	Green Bay	83	UNI Both
Illinois St.	94	Cleveland St.	99	Split
Evansville	122	Detroit	139	Evansville Both
Indiana St.	144	Wright St.	152	Split
Missouri St.	157	Valparaiso	155	Split
Southern Illinois	171	Oakland	209	SIU Both
Loyola Chicago	178	Milwaukee	213	LU-C Both
Bradley	257	Youngstown St.	240	YSU Both
Drake	272	Illinois Chicago	284	Split

This would lead to an 11-7 MVC win and this is leaving out the fact that Wichita would trounce every team and if you slide every team down a slot then you've got trouble. The MVC is a head better than us, but it's not like we're the Summit or SWAC. We're still a top 5 mid major conference and should our 1 seed win the conference each year we'll get a 12-13 seed in the dance.

Interesting analysis.  I doubt however, regardless of ranking numbers, that Loyola could beat anybody in the Horizon twice.  Also doubt that SIU would beat Milwaukee twice.  If you split those then then tally is 9-9.  I'd like to see that Challenge, even is Wichita St trounces one of ours.

[wh]

RPI standings - last 10 seasons:

YEAR       MVC         HL        DIFF
13-14   11th          14th         3
12-13     9th (2)     12th        3        ()NCAA entries
11-12     8th (2)    14th         6
10-11   12th          11th        -1
09-10     9th          14th         5
08-09     9th          12th         3
07-08     8th          11th         3
06-07     6th (2)     12th         6
05-06     6th (4)    15th          9
04-05     8th          20th        12


Pretty plain to see that the gap has narrowed significantly over the past 10 years.  Back in '05 and '06 when they were ranked at high as 6th, the MVC was the talk of the NCAA basketball world.  They were even being accused of exploiting a weakness in the RPI formula by the way they were scheduling. As I stated before, the difference between the leagues now is 1 powerhouse team (WSU) that by itself is inflating the MVC's RPI by at least 3 places.  These are the macro facts.  You either believe them or you don't.   

[valpopal]

[tweet]536972813891297281[/tweet]

[LaPorteAveApostle]

I doubt however, regardless of ranking numbers, that Loyola could beat anybody in the Horizon twice.

insert photo of UIC and Milwaukee fake smiling at this while backing away slowly

[Kyle321n]

Interesting analysis.  I doubt however, regardless of ranking numbers, that Loyola could beat anybody in the Horizon twice.  Also doubt that SIU would beat Milwaukee twice.  If you split those then then tally is 9-9.  I'd like to see that Challenge, even is Wichita St trounces one of ours.

I'd prefer a MAC vs HL Challenge. With all the Ohio and Michigan schools in the MAC and us having 55% of our league in those states as well you'd get some fun rivalries You could also have Ball St-Valpo rivalry renew and Northern Illinois vs UIC would be a fun rivalry (plus a decent game). I don't know how our Wisconsin schools would feel about travelling to Ohio/Michigan, but for the quality opponent the MAC will supply it'd be a good test.

I doubt however, regardless of ranking numbers, that Loyola could beat anybody in the Horizon twice.

insert photo of UIC and Milwaukee fake smiling at this while backing away slowly

Loyola could easily beat YSU and UIC twice. Milwaukee looks lifeless so far, I don't know if that's because they've faced 2 decent opponents but they also lost to IUPUI.  We should probably split off this MVC vs. HL convo from the game thread as this has been sufficiently derailed.

[a3uge]

1. http://www.rpiforecast.com/live-rpi.html > Realtime RPI

2. Don't use RPI until conference season starts. Texas Pan Am is #1 in country.

3. The MVC had the best team in the country last year. Without that circus shot by Andrew Harrison, I think they would have went to Dallas. Indiana State was also very good, but unfortunately had no shot at an at large.

4. The MVC has a floor just like every other conference. Drake isn't very good. Playing in a good mid major conference does not change this.