Valpo at Oakland Friday 1/2/2015 7:00 p.m. EST/6:00 p.m. CST O'rena

[WiscoCrusader]

Bottom line:

Chairback for some inexplicable reason is trying to do rpi in his head instead of just using one of the many excellent rpi resources available on the public internet.

Rpi uses math where Chair is using what seems to be intuition, and frankly I'll take math nearly every time.

Realtimerpi has Valpo at 50 rpi. Oakland, with its 200 plus Rpi, already lost at home to 284 rpi western Carolina.  This really isn't even up for debate.  Valpo wins by 25 or by 5, but we certainly don't lose by 8.

[valpotx]

Debby Downer

I know...I know...

I think their game plan will be to limit Alex only to shots down low and get Vashil in very early foul trouble.  2 fouls in the first 4-5 mins.  I think they will feed Petros constantly over and over early on.

This game will be the best barometer of how we will do in the conference.  After this game the next 3 are at home and will be W's.  After the road trip the week of 1/17 thur 1/23 we will know if we are going to win the conference or not. 

Dude, you obviously haven't watched Petros play against Valpo in his career.  The guy is absolutely terrible against our bigs.  I don't care how he plays against the rest of the league, he hasn't done JACK SH!+ against Valpo, and won't do anything against us this year either.  I have said it many times, but I beg for him to shoot against us, as he looks like an extremely unathletic turd against us.  Yes, there are athletic turds out there, just ask Ray Jr.

[PantherFan]

We lose by 9.

Also, this team cannot function at all without Alec out there.

Debby Downer. What makes you think that Alec wouldn't play enough minutes to beat Oakland? We played a poor game last year and still were close through out most of the game and Oakland played a tough schedule last year.

It may stay even for a good portion of the game but I think it will be Valpo that pulls away at the end. The Crusaders are much better than last year.

His Paternal Grandfather passed away and visitation is tomorrow with services Saturday

[bbtds]

His Paternal Grandfather passed away and visitation is tomorrow with services Saturday

I have no idea exactly what Alec will do. I do know that he will be doing it in honor of his grandfather on Friday and Saturday. I also heard he was in Valpo for the women's game on Tuesday.


http://www.courierpapers.com/obituaries/article_b91a6b64-9036-11e4-ab01-af309b824ed1.html




John A. Peters, 68, passed away at 1:10 a.m., Monday, December 29, 2014 at Proctor Hospital in Peoria.

John was born on February 8, 1946 in Peoria to Glenwood and Matilda (Flohr) Peters.  He married his Pleasant View Grade School classmate, Kathleen Lay, on March 16, 1968 in Minier.  Kathleen survives.

Also surviving are their four beautiful children, Jonathan (Elke) Peters and their children, Liesl and Grant, Jeffrey (Carrie) Peters and their children, Austin, Alec, Ashlyn and Anne, Janeen (Jason) Chave and their children, Dolleena, Brayden, Taryn and Kyler, and Kevin (Anna) Peters and their children, Lydia and Kaylee and one brother, Steven (Jean) Peters, Sr., all of Washington.

John was a lifelong farmer in Tazewell County.  In 1964 he was awarded the Illinois State Star Farmer Award by the FFA.

He was a 1964 graduate of Washington Community High School and after high school, entered the Army Reserves where he attained the rank of Sergeant.

Besides farming, John was also very active in St. Mark's Lutheran Church in Washington where he served as an usher for more than 50 years and as head usher for the past 30.  John also had served on the church council, the worship and music committee and had been property chairman for the church.

John enjoyed snowmobiling in Wisconsin.

Funeral services for John will be held at 11 a.m., Saturday, January 3, 2015 at St. Mark's Lutheran Church with Pastors John Bates, Dick Hanson and Youngshim Mason officiating.  Visitation will be from 5 to 7 Friday at Mason-White Funeral Home and one hour prior to services at the church on Saturday.  Burial will follow in St. Peters Lutheran Cemetery in Benson.

Memorials for John may be directed to either St. Mark's Lutheran Church or the Wounded Warrior Project.

Online condolences may be made to the family at masonfuneralhomes.com



I think the Valpo community should find a way to honor Mr. Peters, one of God's faithful servants.


http://www.masonfuneralhomes.com/memsol.cgi?user_id=1488616

[PantherFan]

I have no idea exactly what Alec will do.

I haven't spoken to any of the family yet so neither do I. Just answering the question on why he may not get minutes.

[valpopal]

I saw Alec at the women's game on Tuesday. He was very subdued and everyone was offering condolences. As Alec said in response, his grandfather "is in a better place." I understand Alec will attend the funeral Saturday, but he will play in the Friday and Sunday games. The weekend surely will be difficult and tiring for him; but as we have seen in the past, Alec is a mature young man who handles challenges well, and apparently he is dedicating his play to his grandfather.

[historyman]

I saw Alec at the women's game on Tuesday. He was very subdued and everyone was offering condolences. As Alec said, his grandfather "is in a better place." I understand Alec will attend the funeral Saturday, but he will play in the Friday and Sunday games. The weekend surely will be difficult and tiring for him, but he is dedicating his play to his grandfather.

The Team bus will probably get back to Valpo about 1:00 or 2:00 am on early Saturday morning and Alec will have to hop in a car (hopefully he has somebody else to drive) and get to Washington about 5:00 a.m. The Funeral is at 11:00 a.m. My guess is Alec will be there most of the day and then drive the 3 hours back to Valpo that evening. Then he will play another game (YSU) at 1:35 p.m.on Sunday. No matter what that would be an extremely emotional and exhausting few days for anyone not including playing 2 games in 3 days.

Thank you and blessings, Alec, for your dedication to Valpo during this trying time. Our condolences.

[VULB#62]

I scraped this from the VU Pre-game release:

"Sophomore guard Kahlil Felder - last year's HL Freshman of the Year - paces OU with 16.4 points and 7.1 assists per game."

I know Alec is dealing with a lot right now, but I'm thinking that this little nugget may be a driver for him tomorrow despite this not being a 1-on-1 situation.  I'm thinking KC and Alec combine to create a large statistical delta between Alec and Felder in this game -- like maybe Felder 10 pts, 4 assists;  Peters 24 pts and 9 RBs.

The team is going to rally around Alec, feed him, and do whatever it takes to help him honor his granddad with a tremendous effort.  To quote the movie Ice Age: " It's whatcha do in a herd."

EDIT: There, I fixed it.

[HC]

Alec.....it's Alec! C'mon man!

[wh]

I scraped this from the VU Pre-game release:

"Sophomore guard Kahlil Felder - last year's HL Freshman of the Year - paces OU with 16.4 points and 7.1 assists per game."

I know Alex is dealing with a lot right now, but I'm thinking that this little nugget may be a driver for him tomorrow despite this not being a 1-on-1 situation.  I'm thinking KC and Alex combine to create a large statistical delta between Alex and Felder in this game -- like maybe Felder 10 pts, 4 assists;  Peters 24 pts and 9 RBs.

The team is going to rally around Alex, feed him, and do whatever it takes to help him honor his granddad with a tremendous effort.  To quote the movie Ice Age: " It's whatcha do in a herd."

Oakland is always going to have guys with inflated numbers because of Kampe's "play till you drop" philosophy.  Felder is number one in all of D-1 basketball in playing time with a ridiculous 39 MPG average.  He is 6th in the HL in PPG but only 15th in PP40.  In contrast, Alec is 2nd in PPG (19) and 1st in PP40 (28) because he does his damage in only 26 MPG.  By the way, Petros and Williams are ranked 2nd and 10th respectively in the HL in MPG.  I heard that Kampe's pre-game instructions to his bench players is always the same - "Have a seat and make yourself comfortable." 

[hailcrusaders]

I scraped this from the VU Pre-game release:

"Sophomore guard Kahlil Felder - last year's HL Freshman of the Year - paces OU with 16.4 points and 7.1 assists per game."

I know Alex is dealing with a lot right now, but I'm thinking that this little nugget may be a driver for him tomorrow despite this not being a 1-on-1 situation.  I'm thinking KC and Alex combine to create a large statistical delta between Alex and Felder in this game -- like maybe Felder 10 pts, 4 assists;  Peters 24 pts and 9 RBs.

The team is going to rally around Alex, feed him, and do whatever it takes to help him honor his granddad with a tremendous effort.  To quote the movie Ice Age: " It's whatcha do in a herd."

Oakland is always going to have guys with inflated numbers because of Kampe's "play till you drop" philosophy.  Felder is number one in all of D-1 basketball in playing time with a ridiculous 39 MPG average.  He is 6th in the HL in PPG but only 15th in PP40.  In contrast, Alec is 2nd in PPG (19) and 1st in PP40 (28) because he does his damage in only 26 MPG.  By the way, Petros and Williams are ranked 2nd and 10th respectively in the HL in MPG.  I heard that Kampe's pre-game instructions to his bench players is always the same - "Have a seat and make yourself comfortable." 

Slocum has been known to do this at YSU as well. They've had a few years where not a single non-starter averaged more than 10 mpg. Hopefully it comes back to bite them in physical, late game situations under tired legs. Also, teams like this dont tend to play defense well. Or, if we aren't afraid of Petros, we can try driving the basket and getting their top players in foul trouble, knowing their bench is likely soft and inexperienced

[bbtds]

Oakland is always going to have guys with inflated numbers because of Kampe's "play till you drop" philosophy.  Felder is number one in all of D-1 basketball in playing time with a ridiculous 39 MPG average.  He is 6th in the HL in PPG but only 15th in PP40.  In contrast, Alec is 2nd in PPG (19) and 1st in PP40 (28) because he does his damage in only 26 MPG.  By the way, Petros and Williams are ranked 2nd and 10th respectively in the HL in MPG.  I heard that Kampe's pre-game instructions to his bench players is always the same - "Have a seat and make yourself comfortable." 

I remember Kampe saying that he learned that having a strong bench was important in the HL and Greg was going to recruit with that in mind. Now it seems that extensive playing time for the Golden Grizzlies' starters is more important.

I guess scheduling winnable non-conference games is not the only thing Kampe decided against for this season.

[a3uge]

We lose by 9.

Oakland has played a tough schedule and has gone night after night against top teams.  Some of them they played really well against.  Plus they are at home.

We have 13 wins but the quality of the teams we have played is laughable.  I think everyone is looking past the quality we have played against and just focused on the 13 W's.

I still "see" the team as the ones that lost to New Mexico at home.  That was our last quality opponent and a true measure of where we stand against good teams.

Also, this team cannot function at all without Alec out there.

I don't even know where to start...

[wh]

The spread: opened Valpo -2 1/2; current Valpo -3 1/2

[LaPorteAveApostle]

http://www.valpofanzone.com/2015/01/02/horizon-league-the-non-con-2014/

Yep, time for the old non-con blog post of 2014.  now i can go back to whatever it is I do.

Hope you enjoy it!

[valpopal]

Well done, Apostle! 

[bbtds]

Well done, Apostle! 

Guess who "liked" this post?

[LaPorteAveApostle]

what? it's a thank you for a thank you.  happens a lot this time of year.

[valpopal]

what? it's a thank you for a thank you.  happens a lot this time of year.

Yep, a common and polite practice in social media. Maybe next suggestion will be the need for a "Thank You" button. 

[VUfan]

nice job Thanks

[valpo64]

To: bbtds    Loved your posted picture/cartoon... that was King Kampe", wasn't it?

[Kyle321n]

So we know who Oakland's main guys are right? Well let's take a look at what KenPom says.

Ranked: 199/351

What they do well: Offensive Effenciency: 106.1 (51st)
They don't really turn the ball over, they shoot a solid percentage, they got a lot of assists per field goal, and they make threes. That leads to an efficient offense, the best in the league.

What they don't do well: Prevent teams from _____
Seriously fill in the blank and teams do it well against them. Their effective FG% is ranked 332nd, turnovers is ranked 340th, blocked shot % is 340th, 3P% is 321st, 2P% is 321st, steal % is 281st. Hell teams shoot better from the FT line against them. Needless to say, their strength of schedule is 13th hardest in the country so some of these number might be skewed by the quality of opponent.

Who they have:
Kahlil Felder is their go-to-guy this season and if that shocks you then let me tell you bet you who Valpo's is. Felder plays 95.4% of the minutes available to him which is good for 4th highest in the country. When he's on the court (when isn't he?) he takes 25.5% of the teams shots. He's going to take 8 shots, 4 of them will be threes and he'll hit a Jordan Aaron-esque percentage. He's not the dead-eye that Bader was, but we still need to get a hand in his face. He also gets to the line, and he drains them when he gets them. Vashil be aware, he will try to draw you in, he will float it over your outstretched arms and you will foul him. Don't do this, stand there and take the charge.

Petros is their #2 guy obviously. He plays slightly less Felder (90.4%, 30th in the nation, 2nd in conference) and like him or not he's efficient. He has an offensive rating of 108.5. He shoots 59.2% from the field and he gobbles up 10% of the potential ORebounds that are available. His effective FG% is the same as his FG% which means he doesn't shoot 3s. Do not defend him if he's behind the arc. I repeat Vashil, do not go out and chase him, he is of no threat to you there.

So who replaced Bader?
The simple answer is to look at Felder, but it's not him. It's actually two guys. Dante Williams is outstanding inside the arc (55.3% from 2) and simply average from beyond the arc (35.5%) but that gives him an eFG% of 53.9 which is solid. He doesn't get rebounds or assists and has a lower TORate. Sounds like Bader huh? Well wait til you see Max Hooper's line. The kid who sounds like he belongs in Hoosiers has shot 2/4 from 2 point field goals this year, yet averages 6 PPG. How? Because he's taken 72 threes. I really wish KenPom broke it down to see how has the highest percentage of field goals from 3, but Max has to be the top person in the nation. I see these guys being guarded by Walkers and Skara all night, so hopefully they are ready to hound them at the 3 point line.

Do they have an X Factor?
Tommy McCrune is the third best player and the guy Alec will be guarding. He has more an inside game and he's an athletic tweener. He shoots a good percentage (54.5 eFG) and gets to the line (just over 5 FT/G) but he doesn't hit them too well (67.2%). His FT% seems like an aberration as he hit 82.4% last year  He had a big game against W. Michigan earlier this season and against us last year he had a solid 15 minutes of play with 8 points. I'd look for Kampe to use him to try to tire Alec out on the defensive end so that he's less effective when VU has the ball.

Bench? Sit on it.
Jalen Hayes and Femi Olujobi take their minutes when McCrune and Hooper sit. Hayes will take 2-3 shots while Olujobi eats minutes and turns the ball over (his TORate is about the same as Moussa's last season). These guys will get about 10-15 MPG. Ralph Hill has also seen action in every game and only gotten ~10 MPG. They seem to use a 7 man rotation occasionally sprinkling Hill in similarly to Max Joseph for us.

Key Match Ups
This is a battle of the Horizon League's best offense vs. the 2nd best defense. Unfortunately for them we also get to play offense and while the 3rd best offense is on the court, the league's worst defense is out there.  Does this mean high scoring? Hah, nope because while they have the 2nd fastest tempo in the league it still means there will be around 65-66 possessions and neither team is going to be running up and down the court. This won't be the slog that our game vs. Cleveland State looks to be (good god they are a slow paced team) but I see the score staying in the 70s.

Prediction: I said 79-77 earlier and I think I'll stick to that. Valpo squeaks one out as we have a 5 point lead with a minute to go and we hit FTs to keep it a 2 point lead with their barrage (and occasional  makes) of 3s.

[hailcrusaders]

What's that say about the HL when the second fastest-paced team still averages only ~66 possessions per game.

I think it comes down to Oakland's 3 pt shooting. Valpo will score points, and if Vashil plays smart, Petros will have his hands full. If Oakland hits from outside, it'll be an 80-77 shootout. If they don't, Valpo by 15.

[Kyle321n]

What's that say about the HL when the second fastest-paced team still averages only ~66 possessions per game.

I think it comes down to Oakland's 3 pt shooting. Valpo will score points, and if Vashil plays smart, Petros will have his hands full. If Oakland hits from outside, it'll be an 80-77 shootout. If they don't, Valpo by 15.

They are actually 3rd behind Detroit (48th in the country) and YSU (97th). They are ranked 147th and we are 256th (2nd slowest in conference).

I hope we get out on their shooters. We are ranked 236th in the country in 3P FG% allowed.

[78crusader]

70-75
68-70
80-82
103-102
61-64

Our last five games at Oakland are listed above.  We are 1-4 as you can see.

I don't care what the "spread" is or what KenPom says (whatever that is).  All I know is that Oakland has had our number up there, and Oakland always seems to circle this game on their calendar.  I hope we win but I think the odds are against it.

Paul