Valpo at Wright State Saturday 1/17/2015 6:00 PM CST (7:00 PM ET)

[agibson]

Fantastic!  Now things get interesting.  (And could remain interesting - just the thing to complicate the tiebreakers.)

Too bad Wright State's RPI tanked on their home loss to CSU.  It'll take some of the shine off the apple if we manage to win in Dayton.

[a3uge]

Fantastic!  Now things get interesting.  (And could remain interesting - just the thing to complicate the tiebreakers.)

Too bad Wright State's RPI tanked on their home loss to CSU.  It'll take some of the shine off the apple if we manage to win in Dayton.

Inter-conference RPI shifts are negligible since everyone plays each other twice anyways.

[justducky]

I'm getting ahead of myself, but watching Max and EVic play makes me very excited for next season when Lexus comes back. We will legitimately have 4 guys who can play the point.

Nickerson on the other hand with his elevated half-court view and greatly extended passing and driving angles has some developable potential strengths that just can not be duplicated by someone 5 to 8 inches shorter.

Just to be clear, as long as Lexus returns fully recovered I would not expect to see Nickerson playing major minutes at point under most normal circumstances. It is those "special situation" abnormal circumstance opportunities which really intrigue me. That is where a completely healthy, rust-free, and more finely polished EVic might really shine in 15-16. Use your imagination. Plays off of time outs, post feeds, drive and dishes could all become late game plays where he might be who you want handling the ball. At least maybe---because he certainly is not there yet!

As for WSU will they zone us when EVic is in the game or put major pressure on him (hedge) in the hopes of pushing us away from the basket and creating some turnover situations? Wright State always seems to play good defense against us making it very difficult to score. I think we win but I don't know how? WSU games never seem to take the exact form or flow that I am expecting but maybe that should be credited to coach Donlon.

[valpo84]

Sorry if this question has been asked, but watching the CSU game the other night reminded me of a certain point guard. Would you rather have EVic running the play at the end of a game or Ali Berdiel? Next game? 5 games from now if EVic continues to log significant mins at the 1?

Also as to UWGB/OAK game, the road is a bitter and cold place in any conference (see Gonzaga's escape last night). And that's why I'll repeat my point for the 28th year, mid-majors get penalized in seeding and in at large berths for road losses to lower RPI teams than the Big Conferences. "Oh it's tough to win on the road in the BIG." Yes it is. It's tough to win on the road in any conference. But if we or a GB goes 13-3 with 1 home and 2 road losses, suddenly we're no longer deserving of consideration for at large. Yet a mediocre 8-8 team from the ACC which won on the road and beat a top 20 at home should be considered.

I move on. Finally, Murray State had a really nice home win vs Belmont last night. Our Murray win will look good later. Also, those two teams would be fine jumping to the Horizon, even if the Racers are public.

[agibson]

Inter-conference RPI shifts are negligible since everyone plays each other twice anyways.

Every loss is balanced by a win, for sure.  But, of course, individual teams RPI's can drift to the top or bottom of the pile.

Some had been talking about the potential for Wright State to be our best RPI win of the season to date.  Looks unlikely at the moment. 

UWGB may fall below us here soon, for that matter, if this Oakland loss was systemic.

[SanityLost17]

The only thing that concerns me about this game is their speed.  Thommason, arceneaux, and Hopkins are all extremely quick.  Without Carter/Lexus I feel like they will do plenty of damage driving to the hoop.  We have a major advantage at the center and forward positions.  Kerena should not score very many points on Vashil.  Peters and Yoho are the exact same person except Peters is a better player.  We are going to need to out rebound them and hit our open shots if we want to win this game.  If we don't hit our open shots, we better get a lot of offensive rebounds and put-backs.

Question Marks for the road trip: 
Will Nickerson be able to finish on his drives to the basket?
How will Max fair on the road as a true freshman with very little game experience?
Can we hit our free throws at a high enough % to win close games on the road? 
Will we fall in love with the 3 point shot or will we take the ball hard to the basket for better looks?     

[valpo4life]

The only thing that concerns me about this game is their speed.  Thommason, arceneaux, and Hopkins are all extremely quick.  Without Carter/Lexus I feel like they will do plenty of damage driving to the hoop.  We have a major advantage at the center and forward positions.  Kerena should not score very many points on Vashil.  Peters and Yoho are the exact same person except Peters is a better player.  We are going to need to out rebound them and hit our open shots if we want to win this game.  If we don't hit our open shots, we better get a lot of offensive rebounds and put-backs.

Question Marks for the road trip: 
Will Nickerson be able to finish on his drives to the basket?
How will Max fair on the road as a true freshman with very little game experience?
Can we hit our free throws at a high enough % to win close games on the road? 
Will we fall in love with the 3 point shot or will we take the ball hard to the basket for better looks?     

I would say the guard trio of Lewis, Lee, and Yates for Cleveland State scares me more than the guard trio for Wright State. I trust Tevonn to guard just about anyone right now in the Horizon, Darien is underrated defensively, and E's length is going to make it hard on anyone he guards. These guys did a good job on Cleveland State's guards minus Lee's tough 3's he hit. I have confidence in us defensively in this game. Just have to hit some shots and we should win.

[Kyle321n]

Trying to figure out who on our team will guard their guys is a little bit of a mess. Donlon employs more line ups and odd rotation patterns than anyone I've seen. My guess for the start of the game is:

Karena<Vashil
Yoho<Alec
Hopkins<Tevonn
Thomasson<Darien
Arceneaux<EVic

Personally I'd prefer to see Hopkins guarded by EVic and let Tevonn neutralize Arceneaux's pick and pops that he's fairly good at. Hopkins seems to run the point when he's out there, and I think I'd rather EVic guard someone who isn't forcing you to run through screens on every play. In fact maybe throwing him on Thomasson might be our best option. He looks to drive to the lane more than anyone else on the team and gets to the line the most.

[justducky]

Sorry if this question has been asked, but watching the CSU game the other night reminded me of a certain point guard. Would you rather have EVic running the play at the end of a game or Ali Berdiel? Next game? 5 games from now if EVic continues to log significant mins at the 1?

Good Comparison! High risk and high reward! Maybe he makes a fine play ooooooor maybe he dribbles it off his foot! For the near term I would pick a mature Berdiel but much of my optimism for EVic is 15-16 thinking.

Time out Valpo with 11 seconds left and down 2. You have on the floor Williams, Carter, Nickerson, Peters and you pull Smits to insert Skara or maybe Hammink. So how many plays can you design off of that? Seems like the majority would put the ball in his hands at some point but that would depend on the 5000 variables that the other coach could employ.

OK so maybe I am thinking a bit too far ahead! How do I think EVic will do in Dayton?    Maybe pretty well ooooor maybe not!

[vu72]

Sorry if this question has been asked, but watching the CSU game the other night reminded me of a certain point guard. Would you rather have EVic running the play at the end of a game or Ali Berdiel? Next game? 5 games from now if EVic continues to log significant mins at the 1?

Good Comparison! High risk and high reward! Maybe he makes a fine play ooooooor maybe he dribbles it off his foot! For the near term I would pick a mature Berdiel but much of my optimism for EVic is 15-16 thinking.

Time out Valpo with 11 seconds left and down 2. You have on the floor Williams, Carter, Nickerson, Peters and you pull Smits to insert Skara or maybe Hammink. So how many plays can you design off of that? Seems like the majority would put the ball in his hands at some point but that would depend on the 5000 variables that the other coach could employ.

OK so maybe I am thinking a bit too far ahead! How do I think EVic will do in Dayton?    Maybe pretty well ooooor maybe not!

[/b]

Thanks for nailing that piece of jello to the wall!!   

[wh]

Sorry if this question has been asked, but watching the CSU game the other night reminded me of a certain point guard. Would you rather have EVic running the play at the end of a game or Ali Berdiel? Next game? 5 games from now if EVic continues to log significant mins at the 1?

Good Comparison! High risk and high reward! Maybe he makes a fine play ooooooor maybe he dribbles it off his foot! For the near term I would pick a mature Berdiel but much of my optimism for EVic is 15-16 thinking.

Time out Valpo with 11 seconds left and down 2. You have on the floor Williams, Carter, Nickerson, Peters and you pull Smits to insert Skara or maybe Hammink. So how many plays can you design off of that? Seems like the majority would put the ball in his hands at some point but that would depend on the 5000 variables that the other coach could employ.

OK so maybe I am thinking a bit too far ahead! How do I think EVic will do in Dayton?    Maybe pretty well ooooor maybe not!

[/b]

Thanks for nailing that piece of jello to the wall!!   

I don't ever recall a situation quite like this one.  Our 2 and only experienced (and very good) point guards are out.  We have left 1 raw freshman PG that basically didn't get off the bench for several OOC games, and who is now the primary back-up for our 6-7 "point forward," who still isn't 100% recovered from major double hip surgery, and who will at times be struggling to get the ball across the mid-court line in 10 seconds against heavy pressure from quick, small defenders.  Like the last game, there will be times when EVN will have to hand off to people who should never have to be counted on to bring the ball up court and start the offense, namely Alec and Jubril.  We have completely lost our ability to score in transition, which was a main staple in OOC play. We have lost our ability to score quickly and in bunches, as well.  We have lost our best ball distributor.  In spite of all the negatives we still had enough basketball talent to beat a good CSU team at home.  Will we have enough to beat WSU on the road?  I don't have the faintest idea.  I do know one thing.  CSU had a golden opportunity to knock us off and blew it.  This will be WSU's best opportunity to beat us, as well.  If we can somehow eke out another win, we are going to be much harder for these teams to beat the next time around, (assuming KC is back and healthy by then).  Right now, we just need a W in any form or fashion - pretty, ugly or otherwise.

[VULB#62]

I'm all for a ugly win.   

[StlVUFan]

This is why I don't like using RPI as a gauge of anything, WSU is 93 at ESPN despite having an 8-7 record. They put too much into strength of schedule and not enough into the quality of your play.

[justducky]

Thanks for nailing that piece of jello to the wall!!   

Always glad to share my knowledge with any and all who have made the mistake of listening. 

Like the last game, there will be times when EVN will have to hand off to people who should never have to be counted on to bring the ball up court and start the offense, namely Alec and Jubril.

Sadly I expect that Donlon has already come up with strategies that will eliminate or largely reduce the advantages of that option. That is his job. Perhaps Bryce is as we speak rummaging through his trick bag with the hope that he has not yet run completely out of rabbits. Time will tell.

[wh]

The spread: WSU -1

[historyman]

UWGB may fall below us here soon, for that matter, if this Oakland loss was systemic.

I don't really think you can call GB's loss to Oakland a systemic loss anymore than you can call CSU's loss to Valpo a systemic loss. Both games were extremely close. Sykes had a shot at a three to tie the Oakland game but hit the front of the rim. CSU could have hit three FTs to tie the Valpo game.

[historyman]

Thanks for nailing that piece of jello to the wall!!   

Always glad to share my knowledge with any and all who have made the mistake of listening. 

Like the last game, there will be times when EVN will have to hand off to people who should never have to be counted on to bring the ball up court and start the offense, namely Alec and Jubril.

Sadly I expect that Donlon has already come up with strategies that will eliminate or largely reduce the advantages of that option. That is his job. Perhaps Bryce is as we speak rummaging through his trick bag with the hope that he has not yet run completely out of rabbits. Time will tell.

Aren't we forgetting that Valpo has two players named Walker that have brought a whole load of talent and options for Bryce to use? And Alec did a good job helping EVic bring the ball up the court against CSU with some pop up help in the back court from Vashil.

[justducky]

Aren't we forgetting that Valpo has two players named Walker that have brought a whole load of talent and options for Bryce to use?

I have no doubt that given some time Tevonne could be turned into an adequate point but by doing so you would not only force him out of position but also his replacement at the 2 (which would be who?). We need to remember that with these injuries and the need to hold EVN to about 20 minutes per game we are down to 8.5 players which includes Nick Davidson.

Might Darien be given a shot at point? Sure -probably our next option- but that also brings into play a whole host of combination, and rotation issues which I don't even want to think about. There just aren't any easy choices that will remove the difficulty from these games prior to Keith making a healthy return. It will be a struggle any way you approach it. My thinking remains that we should maximize our future return by splitting time between Max and EVN but who knows what Bryce might decide to try.

[gamelord]

My prediction:

Valpo 67

WSU 66

[vu72]

Aren't we forgetting that Valpo has two players named Walker that have brought a whole load of talent and options for Bryce to use?

I have no doubt that given some time Tevonne could be turned into an adequate point but by doing so you would not only force him out of position but also his replacement at the 2 (which would be who?). We need to remember that with these injuries and the need to hold EVN to about 20 minutes per game we are down to 8.5 players which includes Nick Davidson.

Might Darien be given a shot at point? Sure -probably our next option- but that also brings into play a whole host of combination, and rotation issues which I don't even want to think about. There just aren't any easy choices that will remove the difficulty from these games prior to Keith making a healthy return. It will be a struggle any way you approach it. My thinking remains that we should maximize our future return by splitting time between Max and EVN but who knows what Bryce might decide to try.

This article from The Torch says EVN continues to have a great deal of pain.  Let's hope he doesn't go down as well.

http://www.valpotorch.com/sports/article_7b3e37bc-9db0-11e4-965a-83e804759294.html

[Valpo2010]

The spread: WSU -1

Looks like the line's shifted to Valpo -1 this morning

[EddieCabot]

Tough to win at the Nutter Butter Center, but Valpo has superior talent.  Valpo 67 WSU62.

[bbtds]

It will be a very close game. I think we will see a very good game from Max Joseph but there will be some very unfortunate turnovers which will lead to Raider points. The difference will be the points from Vashil by him dominating the post and the shooting from Alec Peters and Tavonn Walker.

Valpo's FT shooting will be on the low end of adequate. About 65%.

Valpo     67
Wright St  65

[hailcrusaders]

Saw on Twitter that Yoho is out for WSU

[historyman]

Saw on Twitter that Yoho is out for WSU

So Valpo has Yeo transfer and Yoho is out for WSU. A huge miss of some exciting potential play-by-play description for Todd in Dayton tonight.

"Yeo battles Yoho for the rebound."