Valpo @ Green Bay - Friday 1/23/15, 8pm CT

[vufan75]

Looked at ESPN Sportscenter tonight online, and it shows the game Friday night on ESPNU.

[HC]

Late tip time and on the U. I'm going to have to go someplace to watch this one.

Valpo 71-69 winners (I can never pick against the Crusaders)

[oklahomamick]

I think it's more important for Green Bay to win this at home against valpo minus a point guard.  I wonder what vegas will set the spread at?  Green Bay -4?

[valpotx]

We win in the last 5 minutes:

Valpo 72
GB 64

[usc4valpo]

Valpo 75
Woogie Boogie 74

[Valpofan00]

I don't have an exact score but we loose by 8. I think we shoot cold and our pgs play bad. We need Keith back.

[agibson]

Late tip time and on the U. I'm going to have to go someplace to watch this one.

ESPNU - sigh.  I wonder if the replay will be available to non-U subscribers on ESPN3?

[classof2014]

I think we win this one by 6, 73-67. I think Fouse and Mays will have issues scoring down low like most teams do against us. While the length of EVN effects Sykes enough to have an off night. We win a close one and ice the game at the end with the homerun pass and free-throws.

[78crusader]

Hoping for the win but expecting an L:

GB 71
VU 63

[a3uge]

This game is important for UWGB's NIT seed, so I expect a loss. We'll get them back at home though.

[Kyle321n]

This game is important for UWGB's NIT seed, so I expect a loss. We'll get them back at home though.

[SanityLost17]

Sykes, Love, and Fouse combine to average 10 steals a game.  CSU and WSU might be more aggressive, but GB is the best defensive team in the Horizon.  WSU had to invent a press to play us (usually half court pressure only under Donlon)where as GB uses it as part of their regular rotation of defenses.  Add in the fact that they have a very big body in Mays, and an athletic 4 that can leap in McKinney and we are not going to have the rebound cushion we are going to need to make up for the 20+ turnovers we are going to have.

We lose by 15.  Lots of turnovers for easy buckets.
With a healthy Carter I think this game is a toss-up. 
With a healthy Carter and Lexus we are the better team because of depth and coaching ability. 

Hopefully Carter is healthy and rust free by the return game.   

[classof2014]

Cleveland State is by far the toughest defensive team in the league. They use the full court press just about every time. GB doesn't. CSU forces the most steals in the league, GB is 3rd behind UDM and CSU. Yes, they are very strong defensively and so are we. We force perimeter shots which isn't GBs forte, their top 3 point shooter is McKinnie at 36%. GB likes getting to the rim, Vashil is the best defensive player in the league. I think Vashil is the key to the game. If he stays out of foul trouble I like our chances but this is GB and the zebras will call everything on us and nothing on them. If the refs call the game evenly I think we're the better team. This will be a close game and will come down to coaching and Wardle is an idiot so...

[talksalot]

Just looked at the UWGB schedule... (yes, I washed my hands right after)...

The Friday Night game is:

Valparaiso (Bud Light Night) *

Interesting...

[covufan]

Cleveland State is by far the toughest defensive team in the league. They use the full court press just about every time. GB doesn't. CSU forces the most steals in the league, GB is 3rd behind UDM and CSU. Yes, they are very strong defensively and so are we. We force perimeter shots which isn't GBs forte, their top 3 point shooter is McKinnie at 36%. GB likes getting to the rim, Vashil is the best defensive player in the league. I think Vashil is the key to the game. If he stays out of foul trouble I like our chances but this is GB and the zebras will call everything on us and nothing on them. If the refs call the game evenly I think we're the better team. This will be a close game and will come down to coaching and Wardle is an idiot so...

I tend to agree.  It should be a very close game, coming down to turnovers, fouls and FTs.  I think GB will pull out (from a diaper) the win.   I hope I'm wrong.

Valpo  65
GB      67

[valpo4life]

I kind of expect/somewhat hope we play a lot of zone in this one. Mix up the defenses to keep them out of an offensive rhythm. When we are playing man, rotate who's guarding Skyes. E and Tevonn each bring a completely different style of defense. We all know what can happen if we let Sykes get comfortable and in a groove.

Offensively I want to see our guards come off the ball screen hard and attack Mays' outer hip, assuming he's guarding Vashil. Either make the refs make a call or if he gives way then turn the corner and attack. And when we do get into the lane, please pump fake. Especially Alec. GB is going to be flying all over the place trying to block shots.

Here's to Bryce outcoaching the crap out of Wardle, us taking care of the ball, and someone other than Alec having a big night (game screams Tevonn).

Valpo 64
GB 60

[a3uge]

Just looked at the UWGB schedule... (yes, I washed my hands right after)...

The Friday Night game is:

Valparaiso (Bud Light Night) *

Interesting...

I wish the ARC sold beer (not bud light though). This would be a great way to boost attendance. Hell, even Valpo high schoolers may come, granted we turn a blind eye when when students slip them a couple brews in the hallway for a few bucks.

[bbtds]

ESPNU - sigh.  I wonder if the replay will be available to non-U subscribers on ESPN3?

Yes, ESPN 3 does make these games available to watch on their "REPLAY" tab. Unfortunately it can be up to 3 to 5 hours after the game is over.

[bbtds]

Here's to Bryce outcoaching the crap out of Wardle,

Well, that would really be turning the tables on "Mr. Shartmaster." It's about time.

[Kyle321n]

Some KenPom stats to give us hope:

Green Bay shoots a dreadful 29.8% from 3 point range, second worst in the conference. We are the 3rd best 3 point defense in the league allowing 34.8%. (NCAA average is 33.9%, we're not a good conference at defending the 3.)
Green Bay hits only 61.9% of their free throws, by far the worst in the conference. Our opponents have hit 71.0% of their free throws, something we can't really "defend" against, we've just played good FT shooting teams. Friday will not be one of those cases.
Green Bay's steal percentage is worse than CSU's. We survived that game with a victory and 19 turnovers. So we could project less turnovers against Green Bay. We also gave up 4 fast break points and 11 points off turnovers to CSU inspite our 19 turnovers.
Green Bay tends to slow teams to a crawling pace, forcing teams to take 19.3 seconds per possession. This is 35th slowest in the country. Luckily we play at a slow pace, averaging 18.3 seconds per possession. Green Bay plays a little quicker, 17.4 seconds per possession, and our average opponent will take 18.4 seconds per possession. It's why they are predicting the game go finish at 64-59

Somethings gotta give stats
Green Bay is the best 2 point shooting team in the league (37th best in the country) hitting 52.2% of their shots. We have the best 2 point shooting defense in the league (and 9th best in the country) allowing 41.3%. (NCAA average is 47.6%)
We have the best 3 point shooting team in the league hitting 37.9% of our attempts. Green Bay holds teams to 32.0% shooting from behind the arc, 2nd best in the conference.
Neither team gets their shots blocked. Green Bay is best in the league only having 7.9% of their shots blocked while Valpo is second with 8.0% of their shots getting rejected. But both teams block a lot of shots. 13.2% of the shots put up against Valpo are sent back whence it came, best in the league. Green Bay is (you guessed it!) second with 12.9% of the shots attempted against blocked.

Middle of the road stats
Green Bay's offense is ranked 5th in steals allowed, 9.7% of the time the possession results in a steal (tied with Valpo). Valpo's defense steals the ball 8.8% of the time which is ranked 4th in the conference. The NCAA average is 9.5. Not a super telling stat.
Green Bay's opponents have shot poorly from the FT line, hitting 64.5% of their shots. We hit 68.1% (about inline with the NCAA average of 68.8%), so maybe we can capitalize a little on this?

Stats that make you go Uh Oh.
Green Bay's adjusted defensive efficiency is ranked 12th in the country. The raw defensive efficiency is equally troubling, ranking at 25th in the country. Our offense is very middle of the pack with a 124 adjusted rank. We are ranked 40th in raw offensive efficiency, but that just shows we've played a very weak schedule.
The only statistical category their defense is ranked over 100 in is Free Throw attempts per Field Goal attempts, they allow .38 free throws for every field goal attempted. Unfortunately we're not built to (or our offense just doesn't) capitalize on this "deficiency" as we rank 250th on the offensive side of this stat. I use quotes for deficiency, because they are still in the top 200, and it's not killed them yet. In their 4 losses they've given up an average of 26 FTs, but teams only shot 64.7%, what's beaten Green Bay is their inability to shoot from downtown, hitting 20.3% of their 3s in losses.


Keys for Valpo:

• Force Green Bay to shoot threes and limit their second chances. McKinnie, Fouse, Mays and Lowe are all excellent on the offensive glass, and they capitalize on their second looks.
• Cut off the lane from Keither. If Sykes gets to the rim he will finish. As much as we laud Vashil, he won't stop him either, as he's deft at getting the bigger defender up in the air and drawing the foul or floating it over their outstreched arms. He's also capable of finding the open man (usually Mays or Lowe) after the big has left to try to block Keifer's lay up attempts. If you keep him on the perimeter he's a lot less dangerous than he is when he gets the ball in the lane.
• Get to the free throw line, then make them. They will get into foul trouble, you can take advantage of a less than deep bench and you can get to the line. Make the shots when you get them.

[agibson]

Early Vegas line has UWGB by 5.

[agibson]

ESPNU - sigh.  I wonder if the replay will be available to non-U subscribers on ESPN3?

Yes, ESPN 3 does make these games available to watch on their "REPLAY" tab. Unfortunately it can be up to 3 to 5 hours after the game is over.

Sometimes they're up pretty quick.  Within an hour of completion, say.

I was mostly concerned that the archive might _still_ be restricted to subscribers of ESPN_U_.  But, I'll take your reply as one vote of confidence, at least. 

Coming from the elementary school talent show, I'll have to decide whether to take in the tail-end on the radio, or wait to hopefully watch the whole thing, unspoiled?, on replay.

[Valpofan00]

Just looked at the UWGB schedule... (yes, I washed my hands right after)...

The Friday Night game is:

Valparaiso (Bud Light Night) *

Interesting...

I wish the ARC sold beer (not bud light though). This would be a great way to boost attendance. Hell, even Valpo high schoolers may come, granted we turn a blind eye when when students slip them a couple brews in the hallway for a few bucks.

I like your thinking I'll spread the word if it happens.

[LaPorteAveApostle]

This game is important for UWGB's NIT seed, so I expect a loss. We'll get them back at home though.

This definitely sets a record for "most likes of a post predicting a vu loss"

[bbtds]

I was mostly concerned that the archive might _still_ be restricted to subscribers of ESPN_U_.  But, I'll take your reply as one vote of confidence, at least. 

Correct, only the live broadcasts are restricted to ESPN subscribers. Non-ESPN subscribers whose internet providers provide ESPN 3 can view the replays.