Final conference record poll

[wh]

We are currently 6-2 half way through conference play.  Rather than predict our record for the upcoming month, let's get to the all-important bottom line - what will our final conference record be?

Remaining games:

Jan 31 at UIC
Feb 4 Detroit
Feb 8 Oakland
Feb 13 Green Bay
Feb 15 at Milwaukee
Feb 21 Wright State
Feb 25 at Detroit
Feb 27 at Cleveland State

[classof2014]

We have everything sewn up and will be hosting the tourney by the time we play CSU. CSU is playing for a bye and manage to beat us in Cleveland on senior day by a couple of points.

[Kyle321n]

13-3. I'm thinking we lose at CSU and I'm hoping that doesn't affect us negatively. C'mon 3 way tie between us, GB and CSU! If GB loses to us and @CSU and CSU loses @GB and we lose @CSU then we'll all be 1-1 against each other and I have no idea what the next tie breaker is after record vs. each other. CHAOS!

[covufan]

I think this team can go 14-2!

[hailcrusaders]

13-3. I'm thinking we lose at CSU and I'm hoping that doesn't affect us negatively. C'mon 3 way tie between us, GB and CSU! If GB loses to us and @CSU and CSU loses @GB and we lose @CSU then we'll all be 1-1 against each other and I have no idea what the next tie breaker is after record vs. each other. CHAOS!

Unless things have changed, next tie break would be record against 4th place team (Oak? Det? WSU?) in this scenario.

I went with 13-3, although I could very easily see us winning out. One slip up vs. Green Bay (god forbid), @CSU or @DET. A lot more confident about the last two with KC. We *should* beat GB at home, but remember that they had an off shooting night too last week and we can't count on that happening again.

[valpo4life]

13-3. I'm thinking we lose at CSU and I'm hoping that doesn't affect us negatively. C'mon 3 way tie between us, GB and CSU! If GB loses to us and @CSU and CSU loses @GB and we lose @CSU then we'll all be 1-1 against each other and I have no idea what the next tie breaker is after record vs. each other. CHAOS!

Unless things have changed, next tie break would be record against 4th place team (Oak? Det? WSU?) in this scenario.

I went with 13-3, although I could very easily see us winning out. One slip up vs. Green Bay (god forbid), @CSU or @DET. A lot more confident about the last two with KC. We *should* beat GB at home, but remember that they had an off shooting night too last week and we can't count on that happening again.

Green Bay didn't have that off of a shooting night to me. They shot over 40 percent from the field. They are a dreadful team from behind the 3 point line so that was almost expected from me. And they didn't get to the line as much as usual. I feel good about us in that one. Don't have any thoughts on us at Detroit just yet, want to see what kind of matchups are there when we play them at home next week. At CSU should look exactly like the first matchup, so that is our "most likely" loss left to me at the moment. But I'll take us to finish 14-2.

[vu84v2]

I also went with 13-3.  My gut says it is probably 12-4, but I like how this team has played (and how well Bryce has coached) without Carter.  If Carter can come back and play well, 13-3 is doable.  My guess is that there is about 60% chance Valpo has that loss at CSU, about 20% at Detroit, and about 20% home against Green Bay.

Getting home court and the byes for the conference tournament is huge, but my guess is that Valpo won't get the home advantage.  I see Green Bay finishing with only 2 losses and CSU with 3 or more.  This likely gets Valpo the 2 seed. 

So let's assume 13-3 and a loss at Green Bay in the conference final, just to get an idea of where Valpo may go.  That would give Valpo a 27-6 overall record, but only 24-6 against D1 opponents.  On top of that, the schedule is going to be weak (ranked lower than 200th most difficult in the nation).  RPI would be around where it is now, but maybe lower due to the strength of schedule.  So assume an RPI of 83.  This would likely put Valpo in the CBI or CIT, despite what most of us feel has been a very good season.  Another loss, especially to anyone other than GB or CSU, would assure missing the NIT.  The bottom line is for this to really be an outstanding season, Valpo needs to win the conference tournament.  I do not disagree with wh that winning out is possible.  That is a tough goal, but getting home court for the conference tournament will likely be the only way get to the NCAAs.

[classof2014]

I don't think we need to get homecourt advantage to win the tourney, just the double-bye. There is without a doubt in my mind that we are better than GB, although we lost to them at home, we lost by 1, without a true PG. I would imagine if we are playing GB in GB again KC will be healthy. KC is a top 3 PG in the league, my guess is if he would've been healthy for the GB game we win.

That double-bye is the ticket to the tourney for this team. I can confidently say we can beat anyone, in this conference, on the road.

[SanityLost17]

As usual, I am more wary than most...

Detroit is once again a very talented, but horribly coached team. As with any athletic team, they can surprise you at any moment.   
Oakland will play us close no matter what gym we play them at.  (see last years game)     
Green Bay has more than enough talent to beat us on our home court depending on how the game unfolds.   
Playing at CSU is never easy and they will be back to full strength by then as well.

What if Carter struggles his 1st 2-3 games back?  We could have a rough transition period getting him back to 100%.  Bryce might be put in a situation where he knows he needs to have Carter out there to get his feel back, but the team is slightly out of rhythm as everyone readjusts to having him back.   

We will likely need to finish no worse than 13-3 if we want to host the tournament, and we will have to win the GB game.  I think we can still get a double-bye as the 2 seed with a 12-4 record.     

[vu72]

As usual, I am more wary than most...

Detroit is once again a very talented, but horribly coached team. As with any athletic team, they can surprise you at any moment.   
Oakland will play us close no matter what gym we play them at.  (see last years game)     
Green Bay has more than enough talent to beat us on our home court depending on how the game unfolds.   
Playing at CSU is never easy and they will be back to full strength by then as well.

What if Carter struggles his 1st 2-3 games back?  We could have a rough transition period getting him back to 100%.  Bryce might be put in a situation where he knows he needs to have Carter out there to get his feel back, but the team is slightly out of rhythm as everyone readjusts to having him back.   

We will likely need to finish no worse than 13-3 if we want to host the tournament, and we will have to win the GB game.  I think we can still get a double-bye as the 2 seed with a 12-4 record.     

In years past I would agree with you about Detroit's usual athletic teams.  Surely we didn't matchup well when Junior and Doug Anderson were on their team and we countered with guys like Ben Boggs. No offense to Mr. Boggs and others in those years, they were obviously fine players who got us back to the dance.

Our team is now as athletic as any team in the conference.  The addition of E. Victor, the Walker guys as well as Max and Keith, make us a much harder team to defend.  Add to that, as you point out, the fact that we are also as well coached as any team in the conference and it adds up to a team very hard to beat because they won't beat themselves, like Detroit is fully capable of doing.

[crusadermoe]

Yes, it seems we are as athletic as anyone in the Horizon.   I was just telling someone that I can't recall a VU team with more versatile mid-sized athletes and more weapons. 

In the past it seems like even our recent best players had a key gap or two in their game like Buggs or Kevin or Rowdy. 

[justducky]

I see both 14-2 and 11-5 as being equally unlikely. 13-3 is slightly less likely than 12-4 but not by much with healthy bodies on the floor being the biggest deciding factor.

[78crusader]

12-4.  To finish 14-2 would require a 9-game conference winning streak, which I'm not VU has ever done.  11-5 means three losses in our last 8 games, which is unlikely.  I'd say a 6-2 finish seems about right... losing 2 of out these four games: @CSU, @Detroit, GB, and OAK.  If we can finish 13-3 and beat GB at home, then I think we will tie for the conference title.  But this is less likely than a 12-4 finish. 

Paul

[VUfan]

14-2 this team has played above expectations are as a group good athletes and complement each others skills.They Grow when challenged  and they will be challenged!   

[valpotx]

13-3, loss at CSU.  We rarely play well against CSU.

[LaPorteAveApostle]

To finish 14-2 would require a 9-game conference winning streak, which I'm not VU has ever done.

love to prove it wrong, but accurate for HL at least:

last year's best conf winning streak:  3
2013:  6 (2x, 13 of 15)
2012:  4 (2x, 8 of 9)
2011:  5
2010:  4
2009:  404 FILE NOT FOUND (1)
2008:  6
2007: 

[LaPorteAveApostle]

Found 7 in a row in the Mid-Con, amidst a 12 of 13 stretch, in like 2003 or 4, and then found THIS:



DEAR LORD THAT WAS THE YEAR WE LOST TO TAYSHAUN & KY

2002...like for-EV-er ago.

*However, just because past teams haven't put together a 9-game conference streak has absolutely ZERO bearing on whether this team can and will.

[vu72]

13-3, loss at CSU.  We rarely play well against CSU.

[/b]

True enough, but it does happen from time to time, just ask Rowdy and his 6 of 9 from the 3!!

http://www.valpoathletics.com/media/basketball-men/2011-12/boxscores_stats//mb26-csu.htm

[classof2014]

13-3, loss at CSU.  We rarely play well against CSU.

[/b]

True enough, but it does happen from time to time, just ask Rowdy and his 6 of 9 from the 3!!

http://www.valpoathletics.com/media/basketball-men/2011-12/boxscores_stats//mb26-csu.htm

I remember turning that game on like 5 to 10 minutes late I thought it was a glitch saying the scoring was 17-1. I believe that was the game than KVW got hurt in as well, he still played the rest of the season but CSU mugged him on a play injuring his back I think.

[StlVUFan]

13-3, loss at CSU.  We rarely play well against CSU.

[/b]

True enough, but it does happen from time to time, just ask Rowdy and his 6 of 9 from the 3!!

http://www.valpoathletics.com/media/basketball-men/2011-12/boxscores_stats//mb26-csu.htm

I remember turning that game on like 5 to 10 minutes late I thought it was a glitch saying the scoring was 17-1. I believe that was the game than KVW got hurt in as well, he still played the rest of the season but CSU mugged him on a play injuring his back I think.

And no foul was called.

[wh]

Very good response to the poll! 

Just a quick note for anyone who still desires to vote, the poll automatically locks tomorrow (Sat.) at 1:28 p CT.

[wh]

Congratulations to the 21 accurate predictors (of which I was not one) of a final 13-3 conference record!  I don't know if I'm just surprised or amazed that 21 out of 40 posters hit the right number. 

[LaPorteAveApostle]

don't foul a 3-ball shooter at the end, and me and five buddies are right instead ; )

[ValpoFan]

I was one of those 13-3 votes but I have to admit, I had guessed a win @Detroit and a loss @Cleveland. Apparently two wrongs do make a right