ESPN bracketology

[usc4valpo]

From oklahomamich "You think once detroit, uic or mikwaukee fires their coach brad underwood from SFA would would be a good fit?"

I have a feeling Brad Underwood, being a journeyman from Oklahoma and Texas, would not be a good fit at the Midwest city schools.  I think Rice, Houston, Okie St., or TCU would be a better fit.

Like usual and unfortunately, the Bryce Drew coachings rumors will be coming out in a few weeks.

[Valpofan00]

From oklahomamich "You think once detroit, uic or mikwaukee fires their coach brad underwood from SFA would would be a good fit?"

I have a feeling Brad Underwood, being a journeyman from Oklahoma and Texas, would not be a good fit at the Midwest city schools.  I think Rice, Houston, Okie St., or TCU would be a better fit.

Like usual and unfortunately, the Bryce Drew coachings rumors will be coming out in a few weeks.

He's not leaving for a while.

[valpo4life]

Stephen F. Austin lost their first conference game today. Which puts their RPI at 84 and SOS at 300 according to ESPN. Assuming a win tomorrow, if we are behind them by more than one seed line I will no longer pay attention to anything Lunardi puts out. I can understand for bracketing purposes if we were a seed lower for some reason or another. But his last one on Thursday had them as an 11 which was ridiculous even before this loss today.

[talksalot]

OK, lots of griping about the OOC schedule we have this year... "what did we know when we scheduled these teams"?  Was there an expectation that they would be at least as good as last year and not be a drag on our SOS?   (Maine and PB were not scheduled by us, but we did agree to play 'em)

SAGARIN            13-14             14-15     change   
MAINE       338     5-23        343     3-21   -5
ETSTU       230    18-16        197    12-10   33
JMADU        253    11-20       181    15-11   72
BALLS       300     3-25         237    6-15         63
DRAKE       190    14-16        270    7-17       -80
NMEXU        36    27-7           108    14-10      -72
MIZZO        67    23-12        179    6-17      -112
EASTK       121   22-10        141    13-9        -20
MURRY       106    21-11          62    20-4            44
IPFTW       135    22-11        201    11-11   -66
PORTL       122    15-16        106    13-10   16
ARKPB       315    11-18        323    8-17           -8

AVG       184.42                          195.7
   
If you take MISSOURI out of the mix... the Current Year Sagarin is 197.1 compared to last year-end 195.     So we have some pleasant surprises... and some real boat anchors.   

NOW... take a gander at the real boat anchors...Look at all the teams we have to play twice!
       13-14     14-15       change
GB     73        67         6
CSU     94      126      -32
WSU   138      218      -80
UWM   164      250      -86
YSU   191      271      -80
OAK   198      166      32
UDM   202      188      14
UIC   283      296      -13

avg   167.875   197.75      

VU   171      63      108

As Luke Gore has said more than once... scheduling is an art more than a science.

[LaPorteAveApostle]

great analysis.  thank you for making a lot of sense.

[a3uge]

This is great. Hard to predict which teams will do what years in advance when the return trips of home and homes are decided. The one thing that was disappointing was that we didn't really set up any future games against quality opponents. In 2012 we set up SLU, Murray State, and NM at home. Next year we'll return, what, ETSU and IPFW?

[talksalot]

Next year we'll return, what, ETSU and IPFW?
                     
ESTU was a return this year... we lost to them on their court in December '13
Ball State was a return this year
Missouri and New Mexico were the end of the paybacks
Discount the tournament games:  Drake, Murray, Portland, Maine, Ark-PB
EKY was a return as the end of the BracketBuster Era from 2 years ago.

that leaves IPFW as the only incomplete circle.  We'll be starting with a fresh slate.
                  
                  
                     
                     
                     
                        

[historyman]

I usually look at Sagarin, and Valpo is 63 and UWGB is 67 - they flip flopped in the 60's.

I used to own a pair of flip flops from the 1960's.   





I flip flopped more than Obama on same sex marriage. And almost as much as the lead in the second half in the Oakland game.

[a3uge]

Next year we'll return, what, ETSU and IPFW?
                     
ESTU was a return this year... we lost to them on their court in December '13
Ball State was a return this year
Missouri and New Mexico were the end of the paybacks
Discount the tournament games:  Drake, Murray, Portland, Maine, Ark-PB
EKY was a return as the end of the BracketBuster Era from 2 years ago.

that leaves IPFW as the only incomplete circle.  We'll be starting with a fresh slate.
                  
                  
                     
                     
                     
                        

Missouri was a payback? Did they come to the arc in 1992?

Anyways, I'm guessing we'll see a bottom MVC team Evansville/drake/Bradley and a middle summit team like iupui/IPFW and a top ovc team Murray state/eku/Belmont.

We really should just go ahead and schedule a road loss to Duke or Kansas, something to game SOS and RPI. Seriously, most mid majors have similar schedules, but instead of D2 teams they have a couple unwinnable games at Wisconsin or at Kentucky that deflates their RPI and SOS.

[historyman]

Maybe Valpo could schedule the USD Tereros in San Diego. The schools have a relationship in the PFL. The men's bball team could use a trip to warmer weather in the fall/winter. San Diego is currently 14-13 and 7-8 in the WCC. For the chance to beat Valpo in their Jenny Craig Pavilion USD should have to pay for Valpo's trip to San Diego. It's not a hot team, their SOS is good in the WCC and it's really a win/win situation for both schools.

[wh]

OK, lots of griping about the OOC schedule we have this year... "what did we know when we scheduled these teams"?  Was there an expectation that they would be at least as good as last year and not be a drag on our SOS?   (Maine and PB were not scheduled by us, but we did agree to play 'em)

SAGARIN            13-14             14-15     change   
MAINE       338     5-23        343     3-21   -5
ETSTU       230    18-16        197    12-10   33
JMADU        253    11-20       181    15-11   72
BALLS       300     3-25         237    6-15         63
DRAKE       190    14-16        270    7-17       -80
NMEXU        36    27-7           108    14-10      -72
MIZZO        67    23-12        179    6-17      -112
EASTK       121   22-10        141    13-9        -20
MURRY       106    21-11          62    20-4            44
IPFTW       135    22-11        201    11-11   -66
PORTL       122    15-16        106    13-10   16
ARKPB       315    11-18        323    8-17           -8

AVG       184.42                          195.7
   
If you take MISSOURI out of the mix... the Current Year Sagarin is 197.1 compared to last year-end 195.     So we have some pleasant surprises... and some real boat anchors.   

NOW... take a gander at the real boat anchors...Look at all the teams we have to play twice!
       13-14     14-15       change
GB     73        67         6
CSU     94      126      -32
WSU   138      218      -80
UWM   164      250      -86
YSU   191      271      -80
OAK   198      166      32
UDM   202      188      14
UIC   283      296      -13

avg   167.875   197.75      

VU   171      63      108

As Luke Gore has said more than once...scheduling is an art more than a science.

A bracket buster game would have come in handy about now. A chance to play a top mid major with a good RPI like a Northern Iowa or a Wichita State and improve our RPI by 10 points overnight.  That was the original intent - matchup the best mids at a time when their RPI is being pulled down by bad conference opponents to better position them for the NCAA tournament.  It was a good idea - until everyone had to get in on it that is.  Then it lost it's luster over night.   

[usc4valpo]

Valpo is near Chicagoland - it would be great if they would play Northwestern and/or DePaul once in a while. It is too bad Northwestern or DePaul is too prideful or is too scared to schedule the Brown and Gold.  Northwestern and DePaul  have not played each other since 1979 and 1980, respectively.  Considering that it is an hour drive to these schools, I find it pretty sad.

[talksalot]

Looking at this from a recruitment perspective, it's a no-win situation for the Power conferences to schedule us in their backyard.  If we lose, we're supposed to.  If we win, it's a shakeup to their local high school contacts and suddenly we are on the radar.  I like the "United Center" matchups.  Those are a win-win... for our alumni and for the power conference teams to showcase in the Chicago market.  I would think that's a marketable game next year...Kentucky?

[usc4valpo]

Depaul and Northwestern are being wimps and basketball programs reflect their ineptness. These 3 schools are within an hours drive and they have not Faced  each other since 1980? That's shameful.

[LaPorteAveApostle]

These 3 schools are within an hours drive and they have not Faced  each other since 1980? That's shameful.

that does make me feel a little better about us not getting a game with them.  but how sad.  "can't we all just get along?"

[classof2014]

I do take pride in Valpo being the best basketball school in the Chicagoland.

Northern Illinois -- Stinks
UIC -- Stinks
Loyola -- Bad
DePaul -- Joke
Northwestern -- Pitiful
Chicago State -- ...

Valparaiso -- Now that's a program!!!

I think there's a reason why we get some decent talent from Chicago. If you look at the schools within an hour's or so drive of Chicago all of them are flat out awful, nowhere close to being halfway decent. Valparaiso is the only program that has had success in the recent past and has the brightest future ahead as well.

If Valpo keeps improving and getting more and more national recognition more and more Chicago kids will want to go to Valpo, especially if they want to be close to home.

It is nice that Valpo is starting to get some national recognition for what they have accomplished this season. We are 23-4 and most likely be 24-4 by the time the weekend is over. This team is incredibly young and has a bright future ahead. The opportunity that the basketball program has is incredible thinking back to where it was in the late 2000s. Valpo was able to build and use the 2013 NCAA team to its fullest advantage, which is exactly what I hoped for.

I would love to see us schedule a game against a Northwestern or a Marquette in the UC, get the game on ESPN. A game like that could really do wonders for the program and the school.

[justducky]

Valpo is near Chicagoland - it would be great if they would play Northwestern and/or DePaul once in a while. It is too bad Northwestern or DePaul is too prideful or is too scared to schedule the Brown and Gold. 

Looking at this from a recruitment perspective, it's a no-win situation for the Power conferences to schedule us in their backyard.  If we lose, we're supposed to.  If we win, it's a shakeup to their local high school contacts and suddenly we are on the radar.

I think that DePaul, Marquette, and Purdue should all be targeted for respectful scheduling negotiations, but I would place Northwestern and Notre Dame in a category all to themselves requiring a slightly different approach.

As I have stated before we should be able to fit in a week night game to either of these location if only they had a desire or need to play us. So basically lets give them both. First you make the standard polite phone call with a reasonable proposal and hear the standard song and dance decline. Wait a week then call back with a new proposal saying that we really would like a game so we will show up for no money and will even pay you for the privilege of parking our bus there for the game. I think that would be met by dead silence followed by a "I'll get back with you". Then wait another week and publish half page advertisements in the South Bend and Chicago Tribunes basically stating the facts and picking a fight.

If you want blue collar northwest Indiana fans flooding into the ARC to see what is going on, then exploit your underdog status by challenging these monetary and financial elitest to a street brawl initiated just for the love of the game! If you can't get some fantastic press from this then we need a total house cleaning.

[usc4valpo]

Northwestern may play in a power conference, but certainly do not perform as if they are part of a power conference.  As for DePaul, that program is a mess - they think they are Chicago finest and continue to live off the Ray Meyer era.

[HC]

Seth Davis has Valpo ranked 25th, Murray state a few spots higher. Needless to say the IU fans are not pleased!

[Kyle321n]

Tie Breaker breakdown

We know what happens if Valpo wins out. So what happens if the unthinkable happens and we LOSE! 

Example #1: 13-3 with a loss at Cleveland State
Result #1: Cleveland St. wins out, Green Bay loses vs. CSU
t1. Cleveland St. (13-3)
     Valpo (13-3)
3. Green Bay (11-5)

In this situation CSU would hold the tie breaker. We split the season series with CSU so it would go to next highest common opponent, Green Bay. They went 2-0 vs GB while we split.

Result #2: Green Bay wins out, Cleveland State loses @GB.
t1. Green Bay (13-3)
     Valpo (13-3)
3. Cleveland St. (10-4)
4. Oakland (11-5)

In this situation Green Bay would hold the tie breaker. We split the season series with GB, and then the next best common opponent CSU was also split by both teams. We'd move to the Oakland series where we both split. After that we'd move to the rest of the league and both teams are 2-0 against everyone else. Then we'd move to RPI. According to RPI Wizard they would be #40 and we would be #60.

Example #1: 13-3 with a to either Detroit or Wright St.
Result #1: Green Bay wins out, Cleveland State loses @GB and vs. VU
t1. Valpo (13-3)
     Green Bay (13-3)
t3. Cleveland St. (11-5)
     Oakland (11-5)

In this situation we would hold the tie breaker. We split the season series with GB. The next best opponent, CSU, lost both games to us and split with Green Bay.



I don't want to try to dig this any deeper for 12-4, because at that point we would need way too much help to tie Green Bay or CSU. With our win yesterday we've officially clinched a first round bye. I believe my math is right that with 1 more win we will clinch a top 3 seed. (We definitely clinch it if Oakland loses again).

Still a lot of moving parts, but controlling our own destiny with 3 games left feels good. Let's hope for a little help from our bottom of the conference friends so we've got everything locked up going into Cleveland.

[valpo84]

Couple facts to check, thought Oakland had beat UWGB at Oakland?

[Kyle321n]

Couple facts to check, thought Oakland had beat UWGB at Oakland?

Yep, was looking at the wrong line for that one. Alright time to go back and redo the tie breaks.

[vu84v2]

For example #1 result 2, the tiebreaker ends up being RPI because every other tiebreaker does not break the tie.  Valpo is about 10 spots behind GB in RPI and they would not make that up in that scenario. Thus, GB holds the tiebreaker.

[Kyle321n]

For example #1 result 2, the tiebreaker ends up being RPI because every other tiebreaker does not break the tie.  Valpo is about 10 spots behind GB in RPI and they would not make that up in that scenario. Thus, GB holds the tiebreaker.

Yep according to RPI Wizard we would be 20 spots back with a loss to CSU. The only way we can move ahead of GB in RPI is if we win out.

[a3uge]

Indiana, Baylor, and Butler around a 4, 5 seeds.... Just sayin'...