ESPN bracketology

[oklahomamick]

Joe Lunardi has Valpo as #14 seed against #3 seed Louisville in Columbus. 

[FWalum]

Joe Lunardi

I can understand why people might like this post, but if we are the HL representative that means we would probably be no less than 27-6 with wins over Green Bay and Cleveland State.  ARE YOU KIDDING ME A #14 SEED!!! This would be a disgraceful seeding for such a team from the #15 RPI conference.   

[vusupporter]

Lunardi's weekly brackets don't project the rest of the season - he seeds based off of if the season were to end today.  Our RPI is currently 86, his 13 seeds are currently 82, 71, 75 and 88.  So maybe you quibble a bit over him putting Akron as a 13 instead of us.

[vu84v2]

OK, I know I am commenting on a meaningless speculation, but here goes:

13s in Lunardi's current projection: Akron (RPI 93), Murray State (RPI 77), William & Mary (RPI 75), SFA (RPI 87).  Valpo's RPI is 86.

My guess is that in this scenario, closeness to home comes into play.  They have tried to adjust seeds in recent years to keep teams closer to home (and thus increase attendance).  Valpo and Akron are probably a toss-up, but he put Akron and Seattle and Valpo in Columbus.  Not really a disgrace.  And, of course, this will change 50 times over the next 6 weeks.

It is nice to see Valpo getting more recognition.  Single votes in both polls always looks nice.  It is certainly a credit to the job Bryce and his staff have done with multiple injuries to contend with.

[covufan]

For comparison, here is the teamrankings.com bracketology:

http://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-tournament/bracketology/

and Valpo's chances:

http://www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-basketball/team/valparaiso-crusaders/bracketology

Right now, teamrankings.com has Green Bay as the last 13 seed. 

[valpo84]

2 points on the way too early to speculate on Bracketology; however, (i) I'd rather be the 3/14 in Pittsburgh against ND because they have a history of losing 1st round games and they've been ducking us since the United Center; plus, the next round provides beatable opponents in G-Town and Tulsa (ii) Although the Ville is very good, the fun could be huge if you look to the 6/11 line in Columbus and see our old friends, Butler.

[FWalum]

OK, I know I am commenting on a meaningless speculation, but here goes:

13s in Lunardi's current projection: Akron (RPI 93), Murray State (RPI 77), William & Mary (RPI 75), SFA (RPI 87).  Valpo's RPI is 86.

My guess is that in this scenario, closeness to home comes into play.  They have tried to adjust seeds in recent years to keep teams closer to home (and thus increase attendance).  Valpo and Akron are probably a toss-up, but he put Akron and Seattle and Valpo in Columbus.  Not really a disgrace.  And, of course, this will change 50 times over the next 6 weeks.

It is nice to see Valpo getting more recognition.  Single votes in both polls always looks nice.  It is certainly a credit to the job Bryce and his staff have done with multiple injuries to contend with.

Yes it is nice that VU is getting some recognition and I hope it continues.  What just really irks me is that we now play in a better conference, but if we win the conference tournament (the only way the HL rep currently gets in the Big Dance) our seeding hasn't changed any from the old Mid-Con days.  Everybody wants to look at the holy grail of RPI and to me that is just weak.  Murray State played one HL team, us, and we beat them by 35. They haven't lost to anybody because their conference sucks!!!@ So are you telling me that if we ran the table in the OVC we would be better off than winning the HL? Heck, the Summit League rep has gotten better seeding than the HL rep recently.  The HL needs to find some way to up its reputation because we are still suffering from the Nobutler syndrome.

[oklahomamick]

The HL needs to find some way to up its reputation because we are still suffering from the Nobutler syndrome.

Adding Northern Kentucky should help. 

[SanityLost17]

Our SOS is killing us.  Only good news I can think of is that the 2nd half of our conference schedule is tougher than the 1st half. We are already done with UIC, Youngstown, and Milwaukee at home. 

What sucks about SOS is that if we just would have played the #1 and #10 team in the country instead of Missouri and New Mexico, we would still have the exact same number of loses, but our RPI and SOS would be a whole lot better.  Looking through team schedules, I see a lot of schools with SOS's in the 80-120 range where if we played their schedule we would have a very similar record to the one we have right now. 

I watched Money Ball the other night.  You know, the story about Billy Bean and the Oakland Athletics.  Perhaps Valpo or the HL needs to hire a really smart math guy and pay him a bunch of money as a "Scheduling Consultant".  There has got to be a way to cheat the system! 

[oklahomamick]

I watched Money Ball the other night.  You know, the story about Billy Bean and the Oakland Athletics.  Perhaps Valpo or the HL needs to hire a really smart math guy and pay him a bunch of money as a "Scheduling Consultant".  There has got to be a way to cheat the system! 

Great idea, but the HL commissioner would have to enforce it.  I don't think LeCrone is the man to take the HL forward.  Actually, I don't think LeCrone is the man to keep the HL from decreasing.  At least when the big 12 lost all their teams the remaining team made record money.  That's not the case for the HL.  HL should fire LeCrone as the Big 12 fired Dan Beebe.   

[historyman]

(ii) Although the Ville is very good, the fun could be huge if you look to the 6/11 line in Columbus and see our old friends, Butler.

I thought someone on this board thought Butler was going to be in the bottom of the Big East. What is Butler doing in Lunardi's bracketology?

Don't look now but the Bulldogs are third in the Big East at 16-6, conf 6-3. I wouldn't call that the lower half.

Even though I have detested the Bulldogs for a long time they truly are in the right conference for them and the move to the Big East has been successful.

[usc4valpo]

Losing big to weak teams like Missouri and New Mexico that play in more competitive conferences does not help your ranking.

I agree with FWAlum, but in reality what is the big difference from being a 13 seed or a 14 seed?

Valpo needs to continue winning consistently, beat UWGB twice and Cleveland State.  If they do that, their seed will increase.

[LaPorteAveApostle]

what is the big difference from being a 13 seed or a 14 seed?

um, it's huge.

14 seeds have a 14.3% winning percentage.

13 seeds have a 20.5% winning percentage.

To my rough eye that means historically a 13 seed has a 43% better chance of winning, although I'll wait for tex or history to check my math.

[a3uge]

In the past couple years where the seeding has been low we've sent Detroit (15) Valpo (14) Milwaukee (15) - Two of those teams weren't the top team in the Horizon. Had Green Bay won last year, they would've been a 12 seed since they were almost an at-large. Valpo's under seeding has been well discussed here. Again, the selection committee looks at RPI and geography. Valpo had the best RPI in the history of the program, but Valpo is located closer to Michigan.

RPI improves with a better conference. What Murray State is doing is very rare - there's only a few other teams with longer winning streaks. If they lose a couple conference games, their RPI takes a nosedive. This is true for any commence - there's more room for error when you're playing better teams.

With that said, individual teams are still seeded, not conferences. The selection committee didn't award the horizon league the 15th seed, they awarded Milwaukee the 15th seed. Each team still has a responsibility to put together a tough schedule and win games outside of their conference. Whatever mid major conference we're in won't change our OOC schedules, won't magically upgrade our seed, and it won't win games for us. The conference is never going to do the work for us.

[a3uge]

Also, everyone should check out bracketmatrix.com. It's a conglomeration of 81 bracket predictions and gives an average seed of each team. We're picked to win the HL in 24 brackets, while Green Bay is picked to win in 55. Our seed ranges from 12-14 with an average of 13.25 while Green Bay's ranges from 12-13 with an average seed of 12.29. This is always a good indication of how a team will be seeded before the selection committee gets really drunk and decides to randomly allocate seeds because they think its really funny.

[classof2014]

If we win out I see us getting a 12 seed, maybe an 11 (highly doubtful though), if we lose one game and win the tourney we're a 13, lose 2 more and win the tourney then a 14. Don't win the tourney we're in the NIT or CIT. Gotta win the tourney if not all this bracketology discussion is moot.

[usc4valpo]

Holy statistics Batman!

Let me chime in with Apostle's comments.
It is all relative – whether you are a 13 or 14 seed, you are a huge dog.
Since 1985, there have been 120 13 seeds and 120 14 seeds.

With your percentages:

Since 1985, 25 teams with a 13 seed advance in the first round and beyond
Since 1985,. 17 teams with a 14 seed advance in the first round and beyond
So over 30 years, 8 more teams with a 13 seed have advanced compared to a 14 seed. I repeat, is the difference in seed that big a deal?
Now if you compare the 12 seed to a 13 or 14 seed, I am sure the percentages change significantly.

[oklahomamick]

What seed were we when we advanced to the sweet 16?  I know we ended the season being ranked in the top 25. 

[a3uge]

Holy statistics Batman!

Let me chime in with Apostle's comments.
It is all relative – whether you are a 13 or 14 seed, you are a huge dog.
Since 1985, there have been 120 13 seeds and 120 14 seeds.

With your percentages:

Since 1985, 25 teams with a 13 seed advance in the first round and beyond
Since 1985,. 17 teams with a 14 seed advance in the first round and beyond
So over 30 years, 8 more teams with a 13 seed have advanced compared to a 14 seed. I repeat, is the difference in seed that big a deal?
Now if you compare the 12 seed to a 13 or 14 seed, I am sure the percentages change significantly.

In the past 10 years 5 14 seeds have advanced and 9 13 seeds have advanced. So on average, every other year a 14 seed wins, while nearly every year a 13 seed wins. Doesn't that SEEM like a significant advantage now?

Sent from my Nexus 5 using Tapatalk

[LaPorteAveApostle]

is the difference in seed that big a deal?

YES 25 is like FIFTY PERCENT more than 17  gah

[vu72]

What seed were we when we advanced to the sweet 16?  I know we ended the season being ranked in the top 25. 

Pretty sure we were a 13.  The best we've been is a 12, the year before, and many thought that was a gift.

[classof2014]

The difference between 13 and 14 is huge. It could be the difference between playing a Top 10 program versus a program between 15-20. That's a big difference. Just about every year one 13 seed wins, not every year a 14 seed wins. Thus I'd rather have a 1 in 4 chance compared to a 1 in 8 chance of advancing to the next round.

[usc4valpo]

That is a small sample size to make a conclusion like that. We need more data points.

[valpo4life]

I'm in full agreement that there is a pretty big gap between being a 13 and 14 seed. But for me personally it's all about match ups. When we made the tourney 2 years ago I said I didn't care what seed we were 12-14 as long as we didn't play MSU and of course that happens. And at this point, it's way too early to predict who will finish in seeds 3-5. Still plenty of time for movement.

[agibson]

What seed were we when we advanced to the sweet 16?  I know we ended the season being ranked in the top 25. 

Just to take the "pretty sure" out of it.  Yes, 13.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1998_NCAA_Men's_Division_I_Basketball_Tournament#Midwest_Regional_-_St._Louis.2C_Missouri