ESPN bracketology

[LaPorteAveApostle]

We need more data points.

HERE IS EVERY DATA POINT THERE IS   http://mcubed.net/ncaab/seeds.shtml

would you rather have a (little under a) 1-in-6 chance to win or a (little over a) 1-in-5 chance to win?

[agibson]

14 seeds have a 14.3% winning percentage.

13 seeds have a 20.5% winning percentage.

I always enjoy stats like this.  I usually grab them from Whelliston's bbstate bracket odds calculator page... what's he call it?  I'm not trivially pulling it up.

But, it often makes me wonder what the difference is between "team given a 14 that deserved a 13" and "team given a 14 that deserved a 14".  How much of the difference is in the quality of the _high_ seed?  And how much in the quality of the low seed?  If you get snubbed into a 14, maybe you'll perform more like a 13 seed, and have a winning percentage... nearly as good?

[a3uge]

I'm in full agreement that there is a pretty big gap between being a 13 and 14 seed. But for me personally it's all about match ups. When we made the tourney 2 years ago I said I didn't care what seed we were 12-14 as long as we didn't play MSU and of course that happens. And at this point, it's way too early to predict who will finish in seeds 3-5. Still plenty of time for movement.

Still so upsetting. Michigan State should have been a 2 seed above Georgetown. We should have definitely been above SD State, NM State, and Montana. Definitely Montana. Combined with the fact Michigan State (a team that NEVER gets upset in the first round) was playing at home meant doom for Valpo. To pour salt on the wound, New Mexico and Georgetown were both very vulnerable and ended up losing to Harvard and FGCU.

The matchup is still more important than the seed, but a higher seed typically means an inferior opponent, thus that statistics proving that a 13 is significantly more successful than a 14 seed. Looking at Valpo in 2011 is just anecdotal.

[vu84v2]

I agree that if Valpo makes the NCAAs that matchup is important, but I would argue that this is a little different Valpo team than in the last 12+ years. This team has a much better presence upfront, strong defensive guards, and (assuming Carter comes back strong) a high quality point guard. Thus, there are not as many teams as before where Valpo would just be totally outmatched physically. If I look at the one other conference that I know fairly well (the Big 12), Valpo could potentially matchup pretty well with anyone other than Kansas (in fact, they could give Kansas a reasonable challenge). Texas might be the most physically talented team in the conference and one of the most in the nation, but (besides being too low of a seed for Valpo to get) their coach is the leading national contender for the unofficial and not highly coveted Ray McCallum award for worst coach in the nation.

[usc4valpo]

If Valpo got blown out by weak Mizzou and New Mexico teams, how in the world are they going to match up against Kansas?  Let's have a little reality check here. They just beat UIC, who has an RPI of 313, by 5. 

If they win the rest of their games, I see them as a 12 seed, and no higher than an 11 seed (and that is being optimistic)

In reality, I see them as a 13 seed f they win the conference tournament, which is no gimme.

Valpo also needs to prove they can first beat a team in a higher level conference. They have not demonstrated that recently.

[crusadermoe]

We have a lot of upside, but we have proved nothing.  Our best win is Murray State and Cleveland State trails well behind.    Loss to Mizzou by 15?.........#13 seed would be highest we can  hope.  Green Bay could snag a 12 because they beat Miami and someone else.

[a3uge]

We have a lot of upside, but we have proved nothing.  Our best win is Murray State and Cleveland State trails well behind.    Loss to Mizzou by 15?.........#13 seed would be highest we can  hope.  Green Bay could snag a 12 because they beat Miami and someone else.

If Valpo got blown out by weak Mizzou and New Mexico teams, how in the world are they going to match up against Kansas?  Let's have a little reality check here. They just beat UIC, who has an RPI of 313, by 5. 

If they win the rest of their games, I see them as a 12 seed, and no higher than an 11 seed (and that is being optimistic)

In reality, I see them as a 13 seed f they win the conference tournament, which is no gimme.

Valpo also needs to prove they can first beat a team in a higher level conference. They have not demonstrated that recently.

Beating teams from big conferences literally has nothing to do with seeding. It has nothing to do with margin of victory vs inferior opponents. Mid major seeding has to do with:

1. RPI
2. Geography

That's it.

[VUfan]

sounds like a seedy bunch hanging on this String

[VULB#62]

Two "best case" scenario stupid questions to our resident RPIologists/Bracketologists, from an uninformed Valpo non-geek fan:

Where would we project IF and only IF:

     1.1)  We run the regular season table and win the HL tournament?

     1.2)  We run the regular season table and lose in the final of the HL tournament?

There are other combinations but who cares?

[usc4valpo]

1.1) 12 seed - it would be similar to Harvard recently in the tournament

1.2) 7 seed

[wh]

Two "best case" scenario stupid questions to our resident RPIologists/Bracketologists, from an uninformed Valpo non-geek fan:

Where would we project IF and only IF:

     1.1)  We run the regular season table and win the HL tournament?

     1.2)  We run the regular season table and lose in the final of the HL tournament?

There are other combinations but who cares?

An excellent question.  Once we know best-case RPI (and only when we know that) will we be able to project best-case seeding. I know that someone on this board has worked these what-if RPI scenarios before. I just don't remember who.

[Kyle321n]

     1.1)  We run the regular season table and win the HL tournament?

     1.2)  We run the regular season table and lose in the final of the HL tournament?

1.1) Our RPI would be 42 if we win out, beat Oakland (projected 4 seed) and beat Green Bay (projected 2 seed). I would hope that would be good enough for an 11 seed but I think we'd get underseeded at 12 to face a 5 seed that's closer to home.

1.2) Our RPI would be 54 according to RPI Wizard if we won out, beat Oakland (projected 4 seed) and lost to Green Bay (projected 2 seed). As USC4Valpo said a 7 seed, but I think it would be more realistically a 5 seed in the NIT. We wouldn't be an at large to the big dance.

RPIWizard is your friend guys.

[usc4valpo]

My bad - I thought if they went undefeated during the regular season and lost in the tournament. 

[wh]

     1.1)  We run the regular season table and win the HL tournament?

     1.2)  We run the regular season table and lose in the final of the HL tournament?

1.1) Our RPI would be 42 if we win out, beat Oakland (projected 4 seed) and beat Green Bay (projected 2 seed). I would hope that would be good enough for an 11 seed but I think we'd get underseeded at 12 to face a 5 seed that's closer to home.

1.2) Our RPI would be 54 according to RPI Wizard if we won out, beat Oakland (projected 4 seed) and lost to Green Bay (projected 2 seed). As USC4Valpo said a 7 seed, but I think it would be more realistically a 5 seed in the NIT. We wouldn't be an at large to the big dance.

RPIWizard is your friend guys.

This tells me everything I need to know. If we win out, we can get an 11 or 12, either one of which is a darn good seed. If we can't win out against the level of competition we play (looking at it the way the NCAA does) we deserve whatever we get.

[78crusader]

Mr. Wet Blanket here. All of this bracketology talk is fine, and kinda exciting, but shouldn't we focus on a couple of little things first? Like, you know, beating Detroit? After all, they have whipped us three straight times at the ARC. Just sayin'.

Paul

[a3uge]

Two "best case" scenario stupid questions to our resident RPIologists/Bracketologists, from an uninformed Valpo non-geek fan:

Where would we project IF and only IF:

     1.1)  We run the regular season table and win the HL tournament?

     1.2)  We run the regular season table and lose in the final of the HL tournament?

There are other combinations but who cares?

Given two home wins vs say Cleveland State and Green Bay in the conference tourney, RPI wizard projects an RPI of 40. Running the table just doesn't seem reasonable, but the surrounding 38, 39, 40, 41, 42 RPI's in 2013 were 10, 10, 7, 10, 9... These were all at-larges. The best true auto bid that wouldn't have been an at-large was Akron (43) and was a 12 seed. But this was a weird year - 2 atlarges were 13 seeds. Last year 38,39,40,41,42 was 10, NIT, 10, 7, 8. If I had to guess, considering we're a mid major with a poor SOS, I'd say a ceiling of 10 and a floor of 12.

Given the same scenario with a home loss to green bay in the championship game, our RPI drops to 52. The SOS and lack of top 50 wins would probably make an at-large out of reach.


Edit: you suck kyle

[a3uge]

Mr. Wet Blanket here. All of this bracketology talk is fine, and kinda exciting, but shouldn't we focus on a couple of little things first? Like, you know, beating Detroit? After all, they have whipped us three straight times at the ARC. Just sayin'.

Paul

Yeah, I guess it's a little too early to talk about seeding and the tournament... wait, no, it's never too early to talk about seeding and the tournament! Football season is officially over, so it's our duty to play 'what if' and glue ourselves to rankings and brackets until we face a devastating loss that shifts our focus to hockey and the NBA.

[HC]

We, the fans, don't have to focus on beating Detroit. Dream away fans.

[historyman]

I'll wait for tex or history to check my math.

Hey, I was perfectly willing to have full faith in your ability at math, especially after totally blowing it before, but then I eyeballed the max joseph mistake and said "oh, no, how could he leave himself so vulnerable." It was actually vusupporter who caught the last one--Skara. 

[historyman]

2 years ago I said I didn't care what seed we were 12-14 as long as we didn't play MSU and of course that happens. And at this point, it's way too early to predict who will finish in seeds 3-5. Still plenty of time for movement.

Yes, and just because some committee at the top of the Weston in downtown Indy picks a team as a 3 seed or a 4 seed doesn't mean that the team actually deserves that seed. But if you get the 12 seed then the chances of drawing a higher quality team that didn't deserve the #3 or #4 seed they received is not as probable.

[talksalot]

They'll give us a 13 to teach us a lesson about scheduling cupcakes... and then make us feel better with a pre-season NIT next year when we're healthy.

[govalpogo]

How about the other end of things?  If Valpo were to lose out (20-12 RPI~180), I believe a CIT bid would probably still be a reality.  If Valpo does something more realistic like lose a couple of games in the regular season (let's say GB/CSU) while missing out on the HL regular season title and then loses again in the Tourney (~25-7 RPI~80) then Valpo ends up most likely in...the CIT/CBI.  As usual in the Mid-Major world, there is a lot of room for disappointment and only a narrow path to the promised land.

Is there any chance at an NIT bid without the regular season title (13-3 and loss in HL Championship)? 

Just while we are thinking about different scenarios.   

[a3uge]

What a downer :-(

[LaPorteAveApostle]

[Kyle321n]

So here's something to do that's way too early to do but it'll work for us or Green Bay if either of us wins the tournament.

According to RPI Forecast there's 21* one bid leagues this year. Right now Buffalo would be a "bubble team" if they lost their conference tournament with a projected RPI of 38. Everyone below them would need the automatic bid to get in, and I'm thinking if Buffalo loses they'll miss out on the tournament. The Mountain West looks to be a 2 bid league if San Diego State (26 RPI) or Colorado St. (32 RPI) loses the tournament. If the top team in each conference wins their tournament and the RPIForecast is correct our conference would be on the edge of the 12 and 13 line. Our expected RPI is 75 which would put us squarely in the 14 line. If Oakland or CSU win the tournament they'll most likely get a 15 seed and while I think our conference has enough respect around the country to not receive a 16 seed, I think we'd get it if anyone below Oakland won.

*-Gonzaga would be the only team from the WCC to make the tournament this year, but if they lose their tournament they are an at large bid with an expected RPI of 7. I have to believe the A-10 gets more than VCU in with Dayton and Davidson at 41 and 42 right now. The AAC has 3 teams under 40 in RPI so I'm sure they'll get at least 2 in. The power 6 are multi-bid locks, as is the Valley.

Rank	Conference	Top Team	Exp. RPI
11	MAC	Buffalo	38
16	CUSA	Old Dominion	42
28	Southland	Stephen F. Austin	50
	13 LINE
14	Horizon	Green Bay	54
24	Southern	Wofford	55
20	MAAC	Iona	61
18	CAA	William & Mary	64
	14 LINE
15	Ivy League	Yale	67
22	OVC	Murray St.	68
13	Big West	Long Beach St.	73
19	Sun Belt	Georgia St.	74
	15 LINE
26	Big Sky	Eastern Washington	75
21	Summit	South Dakota St.	85
25	Big South	High Point	89
27	America East	Stony Brook	113
	16 LINE
31	MEAC	N. Carolina Central	120
29	A-Sun	FGCU	123
17	Patriot	Lafayette	125
30	WAC	New Mexico St.	126
32	SWAC	Texas Southern	141
23	NEC	St. Francis	154