ESPN bracketology

[Kyle321n]

After trying to do some sluething and brief twitter interaction with Bill Potter it seems there's way to deep a wormhole to try to find tiebreakers and it might come to a coinflip on who would host in this situation:

Green Bay loses @Valpo and wins every other game.
Valpo loses @CSU and wins every other game.
CSU loses @Green Bay and wins every other game.
Oakland loses  @GB and Valpo wins every other game.

Final Standings
Green Bay 13-3 (H2H 2-2 vs VU and CSU, 1-1 vs. OU)
Valpo 13-3 (H2H 2-2 vs GB and CSU, 1-1 vs. OU)
CSU 13-3 (H2H 2-2 vs GB and VU, 1-1 vs. OU)
Oakland 12-4

I used RPI as the final determining factor for hosting which would mean Green Bay was barely ahead of us (think that OT loss to OU or the runner at the buzzer to GB would come to haunt us this badly?).
In the tourney I said OU would beat Detroit, CSU would be WSU, GB would beat OU and Valpo would beat CSU. Then in the championship I gave GB a 55% chance of winning. Here's your final standings.

Green Bay: 24-6   RPI: 42; SOS: 150
Valpo: 24-6 RPI: 48; SOS: 205
CSU: 19-12 RPI: 96; SOS: 134
Oakland: 16-15 RPI: 114; SOS: 107

We wouldn't be a bubble team guys. I would be ecstatic with a 12 seed if we won that GB game since we don't have a signature (read top 50) win. We'd be 3-2 vs top 100 RPI teams. We have bad losses to the 199th and 155th team in the country. I would fully expect a 13 seed with a game against Baylor (which by the by would be a great match up for us, a good 3 point shooting team with little interior presence) because the NCAA are sick bastards like that. The other thing we definitely wouldn't get is a first round match up vs. a mid-major, but I could see in the same side as Butler because again the NCAA committee are crazy bastards who love storylines. Oh and this would more than likely take place in Omaha.

[classof2014]

If we make the tourney we probably draw Baylor, which is a million times better than Michigan State. When we drew them I knew our tourney was over before it began. Obviously we need to get there first and we have a good shot at doing so this season.

If we were to draw Baylor I'd like our chances. It would make for an incredibly interesting game since I would imagine both coaches would know each other's tendencies.

If we get in we draw either: Baylor, Butler, or Notre Dame. We need to get there first, if not all this is just pointless discussion...

[historyman]

We need to get there first, if not all this is just pointless discussion...

Ok, the CBI/CIT, but what exactly do those tournaments do but cost you more money?

It's much like getting to the Wonka factory, turning into a blueberry and then getting "depressed/juiced."     

[a3uge]

I don't really think the selection committee has the capability of creating story lines - they have enough problems trying to fit teams that are close enough to the host site and haven't already played each other.

[Kyle321n]

Ok, the CBI/CIT, but what exactly do those tournaments do but cost you more money?

It's much like getting to the Wonka factory, turning into a blueberry and then getting "depressed/juiced."     

If we miss out on hosting the HL tournament and are in the 50's for RPI I would fully expect an NIT at large bid.

1. We're still a big name among mid-majors
2. Last year the average At Large NIT team had an RPI of 62 (ranging from #29 Southern Miss to #92 West Virginia)
3. The average NIT team was 20.8-11.5 (.645 win %) with a best 27-6 from Southern Miss and Toledo. If we're 24-6 in D1 games how can they say no?

This all holds true for Green Bay as well. I can't see the HL not being represented in the NIT.

[agibson]

After trying to do some sluething and brief twitter interaction with Bill Potter it seems there's way to deep a wormhole to try to find tiebreakers and it might come to a coinflip on who would host in this situation:

Did you eventually find the tiebreaker rules?  I believe they're stated in the weekly release pdf's on the HL website.

(Admittedly, it does also say there that every game will be broadcast on HLN.)

I can well imagine that there are possibilities this season to move all the way through the list of them, to... RPI is it?

[usc4valpo]

All I have to say is beat Detroit - Valpo needs to play a heckuva lot better for 40 minutes to win compared to last Saturday

[hailcrusaders]

After trying to do some sluething and brief twitter interaction with Bill Potter it seems there's way to deep a wormhole to try to find tiebreakers and it might come to a coinflip on who would host in this situation:

Did you eventually find the tiebreaker rules?  I believe they're stated in the weekly release pdf's on the HL website.

(Admittedly, it does also say there that every game will be broadcast on HLN.)

I can well imagine that there are possibilities this season to move all the way through the list of them, to... RPI is it?

My understanding is that the tiebreaker goes as follows:
1. Record (duh)
2. Head to head record (with three or more if need be)
3. Record against highest seeded team in conference not involved in the tiebreaker (ex. Valpo and Green Bay tied for first, 1-1 head to head. Tiebreaker would be record against 3rd place team (Cleve), then down to 4th (Oak), 5th, etc. Rewards wins over top teams)
*start over at 2 if a three (or more) way tie has been broken by 3*
4. RPI

http://www.horizonleague.org/blog/mens-basketball-tournament-seeding-tiebreaker-2009-10-22-26496.html

The article is a few years dated, so these may have changed since.

[Kyle321n]

After trying to do some sluething and brief twitter interaction with Bill Potter it seems there's way to deep a wormhole to try to find tiebreakers and it might come to a coinflip on who would host in this situation:

Did you eventually find the tiebreaker rules?  I believe they're stated in the weekly release pdf's on the HL website.

(Admittedly, it does also say there that every game will be broadcast on HLN.)

I can well imagine that there are possibilities this season to move all the way through the list of them, to... RPI is it?

My understanding is that the tiebreaker goes as follows:
1. Record (duh)
2. Head to head record (with three or more if need be)
3. Record against highest seeded team in conference not involved in the tiebreaker (ex. Valpo and Green Bay tied for first, 1-1 head to head. Tiebreaker would be record against 3rd place team (Cleve), then down to 4th (Oak), 5th, etc. Rewards wins over top teams)
*start over at 2 if a three (or more) way tie has been broken by 3*
4. RPI

http://www.horizonleague.org/blog/mens-basketball-tournament-seeding-tiebreaker-2009-10-22-26496.html

The article is a few years dated, so these may have changed since.

So while it's 3 steps to get to RPI it's really 10 steps if you go team by team. It'll be interesting if it plays out that each home team in the top 4 hold serve against each other and win out against the bottom 5. That eliminates Oakland with the road loss to Detroit and essentially eliminates CSU based on RPI.

[Kyle321n]

Looking at the upcoming Green Bay-Valpo schedules it's kind of fun to speculate how it will affect the RPI of each team.

Games that are a wash:
Both teams play at home against Detroit and Oakland. so that's not going to help or hurt.

Games against the same opponent:
They both play against Milwaukee and Cleveland St, but this category slightly helps the Crusaders their games are on the road while Green Bay's are at home. Obviously having them at home helps Green Bay's probability of winning, but if both teams win these games the advantage will hedge slightly to Valpo in the ratings.

Games against each other:
Obviously this is the big one in the standings. But in the RPI rankings this one favors Green Bay slightly as it's a road game. But if Valpo wins this they should jump ahead of GB in RPI if only slightly. It also will help if they happen to lose another game.

The difference makers
This is where Valpo stands to make the most ground up in the RPI standings. vs. WSU (141) and at Detroit (206) are VU's other 2 games. Green Bay is at Youngstown (281) and UIC (312) and even if they win their RPI will still tank in these games

[StlVUFan]

It's a little early to get serious about tiebreakers, and I've got the bulging preloaded spreadsheet to prove it   I am 16 HLMBB games away from being ready to do in depth analysis, though obviously a trickle of interesting tidbits might be available sooner.

For example, there's no way both GB and Valpo end up 14-2 (actually, there's no way for GB, Valpo, and CSU to end up 14-2 either, and there's no way for all 4 2-loss teams to finish 14-2), but after that, my head hurts.

And when *my* head hurts, worry

[Kyle321n]

It's a little early to get serious about tiebreakers, and I've got the bulging preloaded spreadsheet to prove it   I am 16 HLMBB games away from being ready to do in depth analysis, though obviously a trickle of interesting tidbits might be available sooner.

For example, there's no way both GB and Valpo end up 14-2 (actually, there's no way for GB, Valpo, and CSU to end up 14-2 either, and there's no way for all 4 2-loss teams to finish 14-2), but after that, my head hurts.

And when *my* head hurts, worry

Yeah, all the tie breakers I have are 13-3 related. I haven't looked at the 12-4 ones, but now I'm going to because I love muddied pictures.

[FWalum]

It's a little early to get serious about tiebreakers, and I've got the bulging preloaded spreadsheet to prove it  

I was wondering when you were going to surface with "the spreadsheet", you have been a little quite this year StlVUFan.

[Kyle321n]

The 12-4 situations

It seems fait accompli to give the top 4 teams Ws against UIC and YSU and to make this process easier, that's what I'm going to do. I also want to make every team in the top 4 1-1 against each other, which gives Oakland and CSU a slight advantage in the tie breaks since they've finished their series. That fills in 12 of the 29 options for this crazy situation. It also gives Oakland all the losses they can take so they would have to win @Milwaukee, vs. Detroit and @Wright St.

Detroit holds a big key for everyone, especially if we all end up tied at 12-4 and everyone 1-1 against each other. They'd be the first tie breaker and they have 5 games against the top 4. Detroit gives Green Bay the best shot of having a loss since Milwaukee didn't give them much of a challenge. I'm also giving Detroit the W against Valpo for their second L in the rematch in Detroit. And for good measure CSU's most likely loss is at Detroit. That doesn't give any wiggle room for the teams in their other games so mark them Ws.

What happens?
Everyone is 12-4. The head to head in the 4 way tie is 3-3 as everyone won their home game and lost their road game. Way to hold serve!
So we move to the 5th place team, 8-8 Detroit. Guess what, we all split with Detroit.
Boom, there's your 4 losses. Everyone swept the season series against Wright, Milwaukee, UIC, and Youngstown.
On to RPI. Via RPI Forecast Here's your standings.
Green Bay: 57
Valpo: 67
Cleveland St: 110
Oakland: 121

It stands to reason, if we want to host the HL tournament, we better win in Detroit or Cleveland and hold serve at home.

[StlVUFan]

It's a little early to get serious about tiebreakers, and I've got the bulging preloaded spreadsheet to prove it 

I was wondering when you were going to surface with "the spreadsheet", you have been a little quite this year StlVUFan.

I've posted several times this year.  I've been less prolific to be sure for any number of reasons, most recently because I avoided this forum as of Sunday until I got killed in #LastMan.  I was going to post a URL of what killed me, but the URL contains #TheKnowledge, and I have no way of knowing if anyone here is playing the game and is till alive.

I made it almost 4 times as far as last year.  45:39 is a personal record (just short of 2 whole days).  I'll just say I was felled by a tried and true trick that I was well briefed on.

[Donjon VU07]

Yikes.  My post vomited HTML all over itself.  This is edited:

Impressive!  I'll point out, though it's likely already been realized but not said:

There is one multiple 14-2 team scenario--it wouldn't involve RPIs though: Oakland and Cleveland State.  They've already played twice and split the series 1-1.
So it goes OU/CSU at 14-2, then Valpo & GB finish 3 and 4 (order doesn't matter), both teams would have gone 1-1 with GB, but Oakland would have beaten Valpo twice and would win the tiebreak.

[justducky]

They'll give us a 13 to teach us a lesson about scheduling cupcakes...

A lot of truth in this even if it was said partially in jest.

Speaking of cupcake schedules this looks like the perfect time and place for me to rant and lecture about future scheduling needs! Given that we should start next year as a top 50 team with big upside potential we should use those  expectations as the base for our scheduling decisions. A too easy OOC home game will be of no value next year--none! If we want an 8,9,10 or 11 seed for 2016 we are going to have to earn it and that will bring with it some difficulties.

Maybe we just pick a fight with ND, Northwestern, Purdue or others. Tell them to name a weekday date and we will be there for the same price as a Chicago St. If legitimate talks ensue great but if we get a cold shoulder then maybe we could find a sportswriter with backbone  willing to undertake a national interest story about the plight of mid- major basketball.

Whatever it takes to give this group of kids their maximum opportunity, lets be prepared to roll around in the mud to-----Get err done!

[LaPorteAveApostle]

Via RPI Forecast

If I'm not mistaken, I believe the rules specify the exact source/site of the RPI to be used, though, don't they?  Since it is a little different from here to there...

[Kyle321n]

Via RPI Forecast

If I'm not mistaken, I believe the rules specify the exact source/site of the RPI to be used, though, don't they?  Since it is a little different from here to there...

Yeah they specify College Basketball News. And they don't have a forecast or projection thing on their site. It appears that RPI Forecast slightly overrates Green Bay and underrates Valpo, but honestly when looking at it I don't think it does enough to move either team +/-10 spots when forecasting.

[bbtds]

It's a little early to get serious about tiebreakers, and I've got the bulging preloaded spreadsheet to prove it 

I was wondering when you were going to surface with "the spreadsheet", you have been a little quite this year StlVUFan.

I've posted several times this year.  I've been less prolific to be sure for any number of reasons, most recently because I avoided this forum as of Sunday until I got killed in #LastMan.  I was going to post a URL of what killed me, but the URL contains #TheKnowledge, and I have no way of knowing if anyone here is playing the game and is till alive.

I made it almost 4 times as far as last year.  45:39 is a personal record (just short of 2 whole days).  I'll just say I was felled by a tried and true trick that I was well briefed on.

Congrats?

[historyman]

but now I'm going to because I love muddied pictures.

Here you go:




NOTHING DEFLATED HERE. PLEASE LOOK THE OTHER WAY!

[valpo4life]

Lunardi's new bracket has us remaining a 14 seed, but this time playing Notre Dame in Columbus. I don't hate it.

[valpo84]

I would love ND in Columbus.

Question--in scenario 1 at top of pg 3. If Valpo beats GB wouldn't that be a top 50 win? Or, is it only their year-end RPI that would be <50?

BTW, Wyoming is suffering mid-major inferiority complex too at 19-4 and Larry Nance Jr is a player. Watched him develop in HS and he has decided to play and has the hands, leaping ability and instinct for rebounding that his Dad had. Great family too!! The little brother will be really good too.

[covufan]

I would love ND in Columbus.

Question--in scenario 1 at top of pg 3. If Valpo beats GB wouldn't that be a top 50 win? Or, is it only their year-end RPI that would be <50?

BTW, Wyoming is suffering mid-major inferiority complex too at 19-4 and Larry Nance Jr is a player. Watched him develop in HS and he has decided to play and has the hands, leaping ability and instinct for rebounding that his Dad had. Great family too!! The little brother will be really good too.

You'd live any matchup in Columbus.

[valpopal]

The NIT tournament will experiment with a 30-second shot clock this year, and they will enforce a 4-foot restricted area painted arc: http://www.ncaa.com/news/basketball-men/article/2015-02-06/experimental-rules-be-used-during-2015-nit-include-30-second