ESPN bracketology

[agibson]

Strength of schedule, yadda, yadda, yadda.

[LaPorteAveApostle]

you can't play any schedule other than the one you've got.

FACT

[FWalum]

I hate to say it, but agree with agibson, strength of schedule.  Look what New Mexico did to us.  I think we could adjust to the physicality of the BCS schools, we have some players that body wise are capable of developing into that physical style.

[vu72]

If (and it's a big if) we earn a spot in the NCAAs, I remain unconvinced that we will be able to defeat a top-25 team.  I've seen most of them play (on tv, of course), and we don't match up well.  We're too inconsistent and not strong enough under the basket.  All of those teams are quick enough to negate Alec, and we don't have the literal strength to crash the boards like most of those teams do. In addition, we'd be blown off the court by any of the teams that are currently in the top 10.  I'm afraid we'd be one-and-done. 

Ah, a few years ago maybe.  have you checked out the physiques of our guys?  Muscles baby.  Jabril, Vashil, Alec, D Walker, T Walker, Max etc.  We are also much quicker then in years past.  I would like our chances against a non-top 10 team.

[a3uge]

Was Mercer physical last year? Lehigh the year before? Norfolk State? Harvard? ND State? Morehead St? None of these teams won because they were super physical and big like the schools they played. They didn't win because they fit some stupid checklist of being able to beat Texas Tech or Washington State in the first road game of the year. They won because they shot well, had great team chemistry, and didn't have any pressure.

But somehow beating Missouri on the road would mean we could hang with a 4 or 5 seed. NOBODY ELSE. Beating any other team is apparently irrelevant when we play a team from conferences that actually matter.

It just absolutely baffles my mind that people still think the selection committee values a game against Missouri more than a game vs Green Bay or Murray State. That losing to Missouri means a 15 seed because there aren't any other mid majors that have bad losses. That losing to Missouri signifies a death sentence for the team if they make the tournament.

Of course any mid major is going to play a better team in the tournament. They're going to be an underdog. It doesn't mean the games are unwinnable as referenced by dozens of upsets happening every year.

Smh.

[justducky]

Strength of schedule, yadda, yadda, yadda.

Yup!

I hate to say it, but agree with agibson, strength of schedule.  Look what New Mexico did to us.  I think we could adjust to the physicality of the BCS schools, we have some players that body wise are capable of developing into that physical style.

Also Yup!

I hadn't been paying much recent attention but by RealTime RPIs SOS numbers we are now ranked 271st as opposed to YSU at 225 and the rest of the HL between 159 down to 92. Wow!! Last summer we were lecturing WSU about scheduling discipline penalties for not meeting minimum standards and here they are ranked 157 spots below us! This is embarrassing. No wonder we are given an RPI in the 80s when we only have 4 losses.

I still think the minimum OOC SOS standards is a concept with potential for this league, even though it might have cost us 1/2 of our tournament split (fines) with our 14-15 scheduling debacle.

This whole thing is part of an endless vicious circle, but if we want to beat good teams we have to play good teams. If we want to consistently move up to the 8, 9, 10, or 11 seed area then our schedule doesn't need just a bit of tweaking it requires a major overhaul. Maybe Setshot is right, if we don't want to compete at the very top of Div 1 basketball lets just throw in the towel and go back to Div 11.

[a3uge]

Strength of schedule, yadda, yadda, yadda.

Yup!

I hate to say it, but agree with agibson, strength of schedule.  Look what New Mexico did to us.  I think we could adjust to the physicality of the BCS schools, we have some players that body wise are capable of developing into that physical style.

Also Yup!

I hadn't been paying much recent attention but by RealTime RPIs SOS numbers we are now ranked 271st as opposed to YSU at 225 and the rest of the HL between 159 down to 92. Wow!! Last summer we were lecturing WSU about scheduling discipline penalties for not meeting minimum standards and here they are ranked 157 spots below us! This is embarrassing. No wonder we are given an RPI in the 80s when we only have 4 losses.

I still think the minimum OOC SOS standards is a concept with potential for this league, even though it might have cost us 1/2 of our tournament split (fines) with our 14-15 scheduling debacle.

This whole thing is part of an endless vicious circle, but if we want to beat good teams we have to play good teams. If we want to consistently move up to the 8, 9, 10, or 11 seed area then our schedule doesn't need just a bit of tweaking it requires a major overhaul. Maybe Setshot is right, if we don't want to compete at the very top of Div 1 basketball lets just throw in the towel and go back to Div 11.

We received votes in both the AP and Coaches poll, were picked to finish 4th but are in 1st in conference with 5 games to go. We've been a top 10 mid major team all year with a very young team that plays only 1 senior. Yes, it's very embarrassing.

[wh]

If (and it's a big if) we earn a spot in the NCAAs, I remain unconvinced that we will be able to defeat a top-25 team. 

The odds of 12-16 seeds defeating 1-5 seeds are astronomically high.  You're talking about defeating top teams from major conferences with 4 and 5 star athletes, huge recruiting budgets, and palatial arenas. These games are by design intended to be big mismatches that heavily favor the big programs.  I have never understood people who think we actually have to win one of these games to validate our program or our achievements.  Winning our conference isn't good enough. Winning our conference tournament isn't good enough.  No, we have to become David to Goliath in order to feel good about ourselves.  To me it's a completely convoluted way of thinking.  It always places happiness and satisfaction just out of reach.       

[agibson]

The odds of 12-16 seeds defeating 1-5 seeds are astronomically high.

Wanting to get back to the tournament just to win a 16, 15, or probably even a 14 seed does seem a little hollow.  The single tournament game is probably your reward, for winning the conference tournament.

But, remember, the odds do get better.  The 12 seed wins like a third of the 12-5 match-ups.  That's not David and Goliath so much as it is... I dunno, Milwaukee and Oakland?  Oakland and Valpo?  Wright State and Green Bay?

It would be great to fun to get back (back! we had a 12 seed once!) to the days of a 12 seed.  But, probably we do have some scheduling miracles to accomplish first.  That elusive mix of tough challenges, beatable major conference opponents, decent home games, etc.  And, of course, we need to keep putting up solid squads that grow and be developed into these challenges.  Or, maybe it's just a recruiting coup or two away.

That was always might hope for Valpo in the Horizon League.  That it would take a while to build ourselves into a contender, or that we'd only be a contender periodically, but when we were, we'd have a decent chance at _winning_ a game in the NCAA.

[StlVUFan]

I hate it when those schools get into the tourney, they have no business being there. Last season Milwaukee was nowhere near being the best team in the conference... They didn't belong in the tourney, they had little to no chance at beating Villanova. The NCAA should have the right to veto when a team's record is sub .500 or something.

First you stack the deck against them with the double-bye system for exactly the same reason.  Apparently, even that's not enough.

In my opinion, I don't care what kind of team wins 4 straight in March, they deserve to go.  Period.  Why even have a conference tourney if you're going to be constantly pissed at who wins?  Cast your anger upon Green Bay and Wright State (save some for Valpo as well) for not getting the job done.  But Milwaukee absolutely deserved to go.

I'm sorry, there's just a disconnect here for me (not the first time it's come up, by any means).  Everyone who is eligible for the postseason is fair game to go.  If you're going to say that Milwaukee had no business going to the tourney, you have to start March by saying their not eligible for the conference tourney to begin with.  You can't let them play and then say, "Sorry, you're sub .500, you can't go to the Big Dance."

[covufan]

I hate it when those schools get into the tourney, they have no business being there. Last season Milwaukee was nowhere near being the best team in the conference... They didn't belong in the tourney, they had little to no chance at beating Villanova. The NCAA should have the right to veto when a team's record is sub .500 or something.

First you stack the deck against them with the double-bye system for exactly the same reason.  Apparently, even that's not enough.

In my opinion, I don't care what kind of team wins 4 straight in March, they deserve to go.  Period.  Why even have a conference tourney if you're going to be constantly pissed at who wins?  Cast your anger upon Green Bay and Wright State (save some for Valpo as well) for not getting the job done.  But Milwaukee absolutely deserved to go.

I'm sorry, there's just a disconnect here for me (not the first time it's come up, by any means).  Everyone who is eligible for the postseason is fair game to go.  If you're going to say that Milwaukee had no business going to the tourney, you have to start March by saying their not eligible for the conference tourney to begin with.  You can't let them play and then say, "Sorry, you're sub .500, you can't go to the Big Dance."

Imagine the Indiana HS Basketball tournament (pre class system) where whoever wins the sectional is told "you can't continue because your record is less than 0.500". 

Pre 1976, you had to win your conference (or conference tourney) to get into the NCAA tournament (then round of 32).  That is what makes UCLA's run even more impressive.  The HL double bye is an attempt to favor teams that did well in the regular season and presumably would do well in the NCAA tournament.  I agree that if you win the HL tournament, you have 'earned' the right to go dancing.

[vu72]

No, we have to become David to Goliath in order to feel good about ourselves.  To me it's a completely convoluted way of thinking.  It always places happiness and satisfaction just out of reach.       

1 Samuel 17:49  "He reached into his bag and took out a stone, which he slung at Goliath. It hit him on the forehead and broke his skull, and Goliath fell face downward on the ground."

Here ends the reading...

[a3uge]

No, we have to become David to Goliath in order to feel good about ourselves.  To me it's a completely convoluted way of thinking.  It always places happiness and satisfaction just out of reach.       

1 Samuel 17:49  "He reached into his bag and took out a stone, which he slung at Goliath. It hit him on the forehead and broke his skull, and Goliath fell face downward on the ground."

Here ends the reading...

Wait, I thought Bryce was the one that fell on ground?

[oklahomamick]

Well, I guess Green Bay impressed Joe Lunardi with the 1 point win over YSU enough not only to replace valpo in the bracketology but also to give them a 13 seed. 


Guess we will find out Friday evening.

[hailcrusaders]

Anyone care to go through the CSU tiebreakers? That last game could be for all the marbles...

[a3uge]

Our RPI went from 82 to 65 in a couple of hours. Green bay is still 47... So top 50 RPI win! When's the last time that happened?

[oklahomamick]

I'm glad they pulled off the win in YSU. 

[agibson]

Our RPI went from 82 to 65 in a couple of hours. Green bay is still 47... So top 50 RPI win! When's the last time that happened?

2011, Missouri State.  Also CSU and Butler.  All in the ARC.

[agibson]

Anyone care to go through the CSU tiebreakers? That last game could be for all the marbles...

What's the conclusion with UWGB?

If we both follow the "only lose on the road, to the top 4 teams" pattern, they'll probably edge us on RPI?  So, we need them to slip, or better win at CSU? 

If CSU happens to win at UWGB, that'd be a strong tiebreaker, and, again, we'd better win out?

So, we control our fate, but still don't have any real margin for error?

[usc4valpo]

I usually look at Sagarin, and Valpo is 63 and UWGB is 67 - they flip flopped in the 60's.

SFA is at 48 with a terrible strength of schedule of 324.  They have a heckuva team but play in an overall very weak conference.  I like watching these guys play as their fundamentals and coaching is beautiful to watch.

[oklahomamick]

You think once detroit, uic or mikwaukee fires their coach brad underwood from SFA would would be a good fit?

[agibson]

I usually look at Sagarin, and Valpo is 63 and UWGB is 67 - they flip flopped in the 60's.

SFA is at 48 with a terrible strength of schedule of 324.  They have a heckuva team but play in an overall very weak conference.  I like watching these guys play as their fundamentals and coaching is beautiful to watch.

Does anyone have a feeling for why SFA's so highly ranked?  Is it this kind if personal impression, from those who have seen them play?  Glancing at their schedule, I don't see anything that would clearly put them above us.  You could probably say the same about Murray State.  Do voters just like long win streaks?

[a3uge]

I usually look at Sagarin, and Valpo is 63 and UWGB is 67 - they flip flopped in the 60's.

SFA is at 48 with a terrible strength of schedule of 324.  They have a heckuva team but play in an overall very weak conference.  I like watching these guys play as their fundamentals and coaching is beautiful to watch.

Does anyone have a feeling for why SFA's so highly ranked?  Is it this kind if personal impression, from those who have seen them play?  Glancing at their schedule, I don't see anything that would clearly put them above us.  You could probably say the same about Murray State.  Do voters just like long win streaks?

As stupid as it is, SFA beating VCU last year may help them. The committee does this sometimes.

[usc4valpo]

SFA is an excellent team in a weak conference.  Just to compare, they lost to 3 excellent teams - UNI in OT, Baylor and Xavier and that's it.  But there are a lot of ham and eggers on their schedule.  Valpo does too, but not at the level as SFA. I also think winning a tournament game increases their sagarin rating.

[justducky]

SFA is an excellent team in a weak conference.  Just to compare, they lost to 3 excellent teams - UNI in OT, Baylor and Xavier and that's it.  But there are a lot of ham and eggers on their schedule.  Valpo does too, but not at the level as SFA.

Not that much difference. SFA at 281 and after last nights SOS bump from GB we have only moved up to 245. We are still standing out at the bottom of the HL and in the bottom 1/3rd of all Div1 teams. This is clearly unacceptable.