ESPN bracketology

[classof2014]

Last year 3 12 seeds won and the one 12 that lost, lost by 3 points... A 12 seed would give Valpo a great chance at winning a game. Gotta get there first though!

[Kyle321n]

Last year 3 12 seeds won and the one 12 that lost, lost by 3 points... A 12 seed would give Valpo a great chance at winning a game. Gotta get there first though!

New Bracketology came out, has us as a 13 seed vs. Oklahoma in Jacksonville. Other 4 seeds: Northern Iowa (yes please), Wichita St. (No thank you), and Louisville (oh god no). 5 seeds: Butler, Baylor, Maryland and VCU. Notre Dame is a 3 seed, Indiana is a 7 seed (on the rise), Purdue is in the first 4 out. It'd be cool to get 5 Indiana teams in the tourney. That might be the most by a state this year.

[a3uge]

We may set the D1 record for turnovers if we play VCU in the tournament.

[classof2014]

Out of those 8 teams I would love to play Northern Iowa or Butler since I believe those 2 would give us the best chance to win, while Louisville would be similar to the MSU draw of a few years ago. Oklahoma is very beatable if we drew them, they lost in the opening round last year to North Dakota State.

[valpo4life]

I wouldn't mind seeing Wichita State. They have good guards but not much of a inside threat. Detroit had them beat early in the season before they blew a 10 point lead. Also wanted to point out that more than likely, with a better seed comes a game further away from home. I'm really hoping we would be in Louisville or Columbus. But I'll be happy as long as we're in.

[agibson]

New Bracketology came out, has us as a 13 seed vs. Oklahoma in Jacksonville. Other 4 seeds: Northern Iowa (yes please), Wichita St. (No thank you), and Louisville (oh god no). 5 seeds: Butler, Baylor, Maryland and VCU. Notre Dame is a 3 seed, Indiana is a 7 seed (on the rise), Purdue is in the first 4 out. It'd be cool to get 5 Indiana teams in the tourney. That might be the most by a state this year.

Our best Bracketology of the year, I suppose?  With Green Bay earlier getting a 13.

Harvard, Iona, Wofford the auto-bids above us.
NC State, Tulsa the "last-in" teams on the 12 line.

We're sharing the 13 with Eastern Washington, Murray State, Bowling Green.

Stephen F. Austin loses the auto-bid to Sam Houston State, who shows up at 14.  With William and Mary, LA Tech, UC Davis (another 4-loss team; SOS even worse than ours! At 317).

[StlVUFan]

My tiebreaker spreadsheet is locked and loaded, ready for bear ... except: still waiting word on just how much Milwaukee will be involved in tie-breaker procedures.  Seems fairly certain they are to be used as a common opponent, should tiebreaker rule 3 be needed, but they may also complicate 3-way ties that they ostensibly participate in.

I was told there will be something from the HL office on this today.

Kyle is right about CSU hosting if they win out, as far as I can tell, but I don't know about GB winning out (and Valpo losing at least once).

[Kyle321n]

So here's a look at the teams who are currently leading the 1 bid conferences with their second place team so we can see who we really need to root for coming down the stretch.

I left out the WCC, MWC and AAC because Gonzaga, SDSU and SMU are in based on RPI. I would imagine that the AAC isn't a one bid conference but right now 2nd is Tulsa with an RPI of 47. Going to be interesting to watch that bubble team. WCC is a one bid with #55 St. Mary's being second (a team we don't want getting the autobid as they'd likely slot higher than us), and the MWC is in the same boat with #79 Wyoming. Wofford and Iona would be interesting at large bids and it appears whatever happens in the Ivys they will be ahead of us. Our hope of moving up significantly relies on the bubble teams and the Southern and MAAC tourneys as I don't think they would produce at larges with an RPI in the projected 50-60s should they lose their tourney. If our RPI jumps up to the 40s like it projects to if we win out then we can start looking at bubble teams and our hopes of passing them. Last year they put 2 at larges at 11s and 2 at 12s, and they are doing the same thing this year.

Conference		1st Place Team		2nd Place Team
		12 LINE
Southern	43	Wofford	131	Chattanooga
Metro Atlantic	46	Iona	122	Rider
Ivy League	51	Harvard	59	Yale
		13 LINE
Mid-American	58	Bowling Green	92	Akron
Horizon	61	Valparaiso	140	Cleveland St.
Big Sky	71	Eastern Wash.	146	Sacramento St.
Conference USA	72	Louisiana Tech	63	UTEP
		14 LINE
Big West	89	UC Davis	123	UC Irvine
Southland	90	Sam Houston St.	84	Stephen F. Austin
Summit	96	South Dakota St.	127	North Dakota St.
Big South	101	High Point	135	Radford
		15 LINE
Atlantic Sun	106	Fla. Gulf Coast	193	North Florida
Colonial Athletic	109	William & Mary	141	UNC Wilmington
Mid-Eastern	111	N.C. Central	182	Norfolk St.
Sun Belt	115	UL Monroe	105	Georgia Southern
		16 LINE
America East	120	Albany	186	Vermont
Western Ath.	143	New Mexico St.	258	Grand Canyon
Ohio Valley	149	Eastern Kentucky	152	Belmont
Patriot League	150	Bucknell	198	Colgate
Northeast	177	St. Francis NY	201	Robert Morris
Southwestern	254	Alabama St.	163	Texas Southern

[valpo4life]

According to bracketmatrix.com, which compiles all the top bracketologies (for lack of a better term), shows that Valpo has the best average seed among projected winners all of the one bid leagues. Our average seed is 12.52, followed by Harvard at 12.60 and Wofford at 12.61. We were as high as an 11 seed in some brackets and as low as 14 in others. Makes me believe that if we do win out like we all hope, a 12 seed is fairly likely. And an 11 is within the realm of possibility, depending on where the play in games are slotted.

[govalpogo]

Perfect characterization of the board during these times of speculation and anticipation!

We are all really rooting for you hearts!

[a3uge]

The stupid thing about seeding is that the committee focuses too much on SOS of losses. I ran a simulation of Valpo's seed had they lost to Duke at the beginning of the season on the road - Valpo's exp RPI actually got better by 8 points (59 to 51) and the SOS decreased by over 30 points from 234 to 203! Throw in a loss to Wisconsin and its a 46 RPI with a 170 SOS.

So if Valpo loses by 40 in both of those games, they're suddenly more desirable? No, but unfortunately this is how it works. If Valpo had simply scheduled a couple losses at the beginning of the year, they may be in consideration for an at-large. With a blowout loss to Duke early in the season but a HL Championship loss to UWGB, you're looking at a 25-6 record with a 47 RPI and a 178 SOS vs a 25-5 record but a 54 RPI and a 206 SOS. Unfortunately the extra loss is somehow more desirable.

[LaPorteAveApostle]

cut to Greg Kampe tenting his fingers and murmuring "...excellent"

[a3uge]

cut to Greg Kampe tenting his fingers and murmuring "...excellent"

I'm glad you mentioned that - there's also the problem of teams scheduling too many of these games. 1 or 2 are fine, 5 or 6 start murdering your RPI as you're actually replacing winnable games with losses. Oakland still isn't above .500 and have shown they're actually somewhat of a decent team by having a conference record above .500. This proves their schedule was a complete disaster. While our OOC SOS may have sucked, we won all but 2 of those games and are projected at a 12 seed now. Anyone saying that schedule is detrimental to the Horizon should go eat a box of rocks. Where's your team projected at? Remember the Wright State fan lecturing us on how they're helping out the conference by scheduling so many wins? Well if you don't actually win those games, then you're crapping all over the conference. If we a really soft schedule and lose to teams like NC A&T, then we have some serious issues.

[agibson]

According to bracketmatrix.com, which compiles all the top bracketologies (for lack of a better term), shows that Valpo has the best average seed among projected winners all of the one bid leagues. Our average seed is 12.52, followed by Harvard at 12.60 and Wofford at 12.61. We were as high as an 11 seed in some brackets and as low as 14 in others. Makes me believe that if we do win out like we all hope, a 12 seed is fairly likely. And an 11 is within the realm of possibility, depending on where the play in games are slotted.

Interesting!  Looks like, by default, he's taking a week's worth of brackets?

It seems like we were lower not so long ago?  But, I don't have the numbers to prove it.  Maybe our stock's rising.

I note that Green Bay's average seed is even better than ours!  12.16.  But, it may be they'll fall out of most brackets soon.

[LaPorteAveApostle]

lose to teams like NC A&T

[agibson]

The stupid thing about seeding is that the committee focuses too much on SOS of losses. I ran a simulation of Valpo's seed had they lost to Duke at the beginning of the season on the road - Valpo's exp RPI actually got better by 8 points (59 to 51) and the SOS decreased by over 30 points from 234 to 203! Throw in a loss to Wisconsin and its a 46 RPI with a 170 SOS.

So if Valpo loses by 40 in both of those games, they're suddenly more desirable? No, but unfortunately this is how it works. If Valpo had simply scheduled a couple losses at the beginning of the year, they may be in consideration for an at-large. With a blowout loss to Duke early in the season but a HL Championship loss to UWGB, you're looking at a 25-6 record with a 47 RPI and a 178 SOS vs a 25-5 record but a 54 RPI and a 206 SOS. Unfortunately the extra loss is somehow more desirable.

Really nice examples.  Of course, you can't see their February RPI's when you schedule them.

But, probably there are some relatively safe bets for "is probably going to be ranked and with an excellent RPI in the next couple of seasons".  Going simply from last year's top 25, you probably could have done OK.  Not fantastic with Ohio State or Michigan State.  And maybe not so great with Syracuse, Florida, or Michigan.  But, perhaps some of these down years could be predicted.

Of course, the selection committee's not _just_ supposed to look at your opponents' RPI's.  Even if that was Wheliston's take-home message from the mock bracket exercises.  "Your RPI matters maybe not as much you think, but your opponents' RPI's matter a lot."  In the form of average RPI win, average RPI loss, and the win/loss/home/away breakdown for top-50, 51-100, etc. opponents.  As per his selection sheets http://www.bbstate.com/teams/VALP/sheet

But, it does seem like RPI mattered a lot when we drew Michigan State...

[agibson]

so we can see who we really need to root for coming down the stretch.

Feels like an interesting contrast to what bubble teams are cheering for.

If there are a few "2 bids, if the at-large team loses the tourney" conferences bubble teams root for chalk in those conference tourneys.

In our case, if there are a few "teams _almost_ good enough for an at-large, but in one-bid conferences" we're rooting for the good team to _lose_ the tourney.

Bubble teams want to keep the bottom of the bracket thin, we want to fill up the bottom!

[agibson]

As per his selection sheets http://www.bbstate.com/teams/VALP/sheet

I had forgotten that, like RPI, the sheets are very much focused on D1.  The non-D1 games show up, but they're relegated to the bottom corner.

The committee's quick impression of Valpo's current record would very much be 21-4, not 24-4.

29-4 at selection time vs. 26-4?  Does it matter?  30 would have an awfully nice ring to it... Don't know about 29.

[classof2014]

The four losses looks really good. I think that's what is going to stand out. The two conference losses were on the road, to two of the top four conference teams. And one was tied after regulation and the other was a one point loss. Basically if Valpo would've scored one more bucket in each game Valpo would be 13-0 in conference and 26-2 overall. Also the Murray State win looks better and better every day, I don't think they're as good as people make them out to be. I still think its the name that is carrying them further in people's eyes. They're in a poor conference and haven't lost since the Valpo game. The better people think of Murray State, the better the win looks for Valpo.

My guess is, if Valpo wins out, the ceiling is an 11 and floor is 14, with the highest chance being a 12.

[chef]

I trust Jerry Palm's bracketology on CBSsportline. He currently has Valpo as a 12, along with Murray State and Wofford, while Harvard, Iona, and Bowling Green are all 13's.

[Kyle321n]

so we can see who we really need to root for coming down the stretch.

Feels like an interesting contrast to what bubble teams are cheering for.

If there are a few "2 bids, if the at-large team loses the tourney" conferences bubble teams root for chalk in those conference tourneys.

In our case, if there are a few "teams _almost_ good enough for an at-large, but in one-bid conferences" we're rooting for the good team to _lose_ the tourney.

Bubble teams want to keep the bottom of the bracket thin, we want to fill up them bottom!

What would really help is if the Power 6 conferences were won by the bottom feeders with 100+ RPIs. Teams like Northwestern, Texas Tech, USC and the like would only move us up lines as there's no way you can seed a 100+ RPI team ahead of us at this point.

While that would make the tournament more fun for us as getting a 10 or 11 seed would increase our chances of making a run I think it would water down the tourney from a quality of play standpoint and might make the first round games turn into slaughters.

[78crusader]

We are not going to get an at-large bid.  Period.  We played two BCS schools this year and lost to both --badly.

This seeding talk is nice but first we have to win our conference tourney to get there.  And to win the conference tourney, we will probably need to host the tourney.  And to host the tourney, we will probably need to win all three remaining regular season games since UWGB probably will not lose again -- they have three home games and only one road game left --@ UIC.   And to win all our remaining games, we will need to play very, very well -- @ Detroit and @ CSU will be very difficult games.

Paul

[a3uge]

so we can see who we really need to root for coming down the stretch.

Feels like an interesting contrast to what bubble teams are cheering for.

If there are a few "2 bids, if the at-large team loses the tourney" conferences bubble teams root for chalk in those conference tourneys.

In our case, if there are a few "teams _almost_ good enough for an at-large, but in one-bid conferences" we're rooting for the good team to _lose_ the tourney.

Bubble teams want to keep the bottom of the bracket thin, we want to fill up them bottom!

What would really help is if the Power 6 conferences were won by the bottom feeders with 100+ RPIs. Teams like Northwestern, Texas Tech, USC and the like would only move us up lines as there's no way you can seed a 100+ RPI team ahead of us at this point.

While that would make the tournament more fun for us as getting a 10 or 11 seed would increase our chances of making a run I think it would water down the tourney from a quality of play standpoint and might make the first round games turn into slaughters.

If Northwestern wins the Big 10, they would potentially have wins over Wisconsin, Maryland, Ohio State, Illinois and Penn State. So 4 at larges and 4 Top 50 RPI wins. That's never going to happen, but even if it did, they wouldn't make them a 13 seed. Rooting for lower tiered power conference teams to win their conference is wasted effort.

[valpo4life]

I trust Jerry Palm's bracketology on CBSsportline. He currently has Valpo as a 12, along with Murray State and Wofford, while Harvard, Iona, and Bowling Green are all 13's.

Lunardi typically does a little better job than Palm. But neither are really highly ranked.

http://bracketmatrix.com/rankings.html

[a3uge]

We are not going to get an at-large bid.  Period.  We played two BCS schools this year and lost to both --badly.

This seeding talk is nice but first we have to win our conference tourney to get there.  And to win the conference tourney, we will probably need to host the tourney.  And to host the tourney, we will probably need to win all three remaining regular season games since UWGB probably will not lose again -- they have three home games and only one road game left --@ UIC.   And to win all our remaining games, we will need to play very, very well -- @ Detroit and @ CSU will be very difficult games.

Paul

A loss to a BCS team means more to the selection committee than losing to a non-BCS team? So if "Missouri" was actually "Missouri State" and we lost, it would help us?

Also, what's a BCS?