ESPN bracketology

[Just Sayin]

When it comes to RPI, there is no need anymore to wait  for the weekly official NCAA number. They publish it on a daily basis.

One note of interest since last night's game won by Cleveland State is that Valpo jumped Green Bay by one place in the official RPI.

See:

[http://www.ncaa.com/rankings/basketball-men/d1/ncaa-mens-basketball-rpi]

[agibson]

We've finally passed up Green Bay on bracketmatrix.com.  12.42.

We're still the best of the AQ's on this site, but well off the at-larges.  And other places have the likes of Harvard, Wofford, and Murray State above us.  Going to be hard to catch Harvard in RPI, unless they start losing...

Somehow our "win out" RPI seems to be getting worse... RPI Forecast has 52/53 (and that's before the CSU loss).

[chef]

What really hurts Valpo's RPI this year, more than any other season is the poor records by everyone except Green Bay in the non-conference. UWM a .500 team in the league, was 3-9 in the non-conference, and their current RPI is 229. Oakland a title contender all year had a 3-10 non-conference record. Since 50% of the RPI is your opponent's record, it's so hard to move your RPI once league play begins. Additionally, the league's RPI has dropped from 13 to 16 simply by playing each other. Oakland's non-conference scheduling really hurts the league RPI (not that they care).

[oklahomamick]

The Oakland fans don't care, but I thought LeCrone made a point when they were accepted that they must change their occ philosophy.  I also thought he made an exception with the size of their bball stadium.  If they were to host, the HL would lose a little money because ticket sells wouldn't be as much. 

[agibson]

Oakland a title contender all year had a 3-10 non-conference record. Since 50% of the RPI is your opponent's record, it's so hard to move your RPI once league play begins. Additionally, the league's RPI has dropped from 13 to 16 simply by playing each other. Oakland's non-conference scheduling really hurts the league RPI (not that they care).

An interesting point.  Scheduling games where you're the sacrificial lamb might be Ok, even good, for your own RPI.  But, it could drag down the league. 

[SanityLost17]

Oakland a title contender all year had a 3-10 non-conference record. Since 50% of the RPI is your opponent's record, it's so hard to move your RPI once league play begins. Additionally, the league's RPI has dropped from 13 to 16 simply by playing each other. Oakland's non-conference scheduling really hurts the league RPI (not that they care).

An interesting point.  Scheduling games where you're the sacrificial lamb might be Ok, even good, for your own RPI.  But, it could drag down the league.

The MAC is a top 10 RPI conference this year!  They have 6 schools with excellent RPI's.  Whoever goes on a run in the conference tournament will end up with a 12 seed and an RPI in the 40's because of it (Unless somebody like Western Michigan or EMU goes on an upset run).   Oakland really screwed us this year.  I don't mind them scheduling hard, BUT NOT DURING A REBUILDING YEAR.  You have to adjust your schedule based on how good your team is going to be!!!!!     

[oklahomamick]

What's the reasoning behind it?  I know this has been beaten to death.  If all teams can get on the same page as far as scheduling. 

[talksalot]

1.  Do The math.  How much $$ did Oakland receive for these Power-5/6 games?   

2.  Based on #1... I don't think there needs to be a second reason.

[Just Sayin]

What really hurts Valpo's RPI this year, more than any other season is the poor records by everyone except Green Bay in the non-conference. UWM a .500 team in the league, was 3-9 in the non-conference, and their current RPI is 229. Oakland a title contender all year had a 3-10 non-conference record. Since 50% of the RPI is your opponent's record, it's so hard to move your RPI once league play begins. Additionally, the league's RPI has dropped from 13 to 16 simply by playing each other. Oakland's non-conference scheduling really hurts the league RPI (not that they care).

Could you please explain how Oakland's strong out of conference schedule hurts the Horizon League's RPI? I would think if it helps Oakland's RPI (which it certainly does), that everyone who plays Oakland in the conference is blessed with those top team's records and is part of their own RPI, more specifically their SOS, since it is weighted 75% to a team's opponents record and their opponent's opponents record. It seems to me that when any team in the HL plays, say, KY, win or lose,  their SOS will improve over time and so will the teams in the HL who plays against that team who played against KY. Tell me where I'm wrong.

[Kyle321n]

What really hurts Valpo's RPI this year, more than any other season is the poor records by everyone except Green Bay in the non-conference. UWM a .500 team in the league, was 3-9 in the non-conference, and their current RPI is 229. Oakland a title contender all year had a 3-10 non-conference record. Since 50% of the RPI is your opponent's record, it's so hard to move your RPI once league play begins. Additionally, the league's RPI has dropped from 13 to 16 simply by playing each other. Oakland's non-conference scheduling really hurts the league RPI (not that they care).

Could you please explain how Oakland's strong out of conference schedule hurts the Horizon League's RPI? I would think if it helps Oakland's RPI (which it certainly does), that everyone who plays Oakland in the conference is blessed with those top team's records and is part of their own RPI, more specifically their SOS, since it is weighted 75% to a team's opponents record and their opponent's opponents record. It seems to me that when any team in the HL plays, say, KY, win or lose,  their SOS will improve over time and so will the teams in the HL who plays against that team who played against KY. Tell me where I'm wrong.

What's the reasoning behind it?  I know this has been beaten to death.  If all teams can get on the same page as far as scheduling. 

Part of RPI your opponent's winning percentage. If Oakland had scheduled more winnable games, and not gone 3-10 in the OOC, our RPI would be improved twofold. They would have a better RPI with more Ws and we would have a better one because their win% was higher. That 3-10 is killing the conference RPI right now because they are a moderately good team who could have been 7-6 or better with a schedule similar Wright State's.

[Just Sayin]

What really hurts Valpo's RPI this year, more than any other season is the poor records by everyone except Green Bay in the non-conference. UWM a .500 team in the league, was 3-9 in the non-conference, and their current RPI is 229. Oakland a title contender all year had a 3-10 non-conference record. Since 50% of the RPI is your opponent's record, it's so hard to move your RPI once league play begins. Additionally, the league's RPI has dropped from 13 to 16 simply by playing each other. Oakland's non-conference scheduling really hurts the league RPI (not that they care).

Could you please explain how Oakland's strong out of conference schedule hurts the Horizon League's RPI? I would think if it helps Oakland's RPI (which it certainly does), that everyone who plays Oakland in the conference is blessed with those top team's records and is part of their own RPI, more specifically their SOS, since it is weighted 75% to a team's opponents record and their opponent's opponents record. It seems to me that when any team in the HL plays, say, KY, win or lose,  their SOS will improve over time and so will the teams in the HL who plays against that team who played against KY. Tell me where I'm wrong.

What's the reasoning behind it?  I know this has been beaten to death.  If all teams can get on the same page as far as scheduling. 

Part of RPI your opponent's winning percentage. If Oakland had scheduled more winnable games, and not gone 3-10 in the OOC, our RPI would be improved twofold. They would have a better RPI with more Ws and we would have a better one because their win% was higher. That 3-10 is killing the conference RPI right now because they are a moderately good team who could have been 7-6 or better with a schedule similar Wright State's.

The fact that Oakland lost to these better teams is not relevant to SOS, a major part of RPI. Even though Oakland lost those games against strong opponents, their RPI is disproportionately helped more by their opponents (and opponents opponents) winning record than their own W-L record. In fact, Oakland's RPI can move up at a faster rate than Valpo's RPI (all things being equal) even though Oakland or Valpo hasn't played any games during that time period in which the increase/decrease in RPI is calculated. Looking solely at the SOS of your opponent and their winning record (and the winning record and SOS of their stronger conference opponents) can improve your RPI even if you lose games after playing them.

Take a look at Valpo for example. Every team they beat who has a losing record continues to be a drag on their RPI on an ongoing basis because those weaker teams, and the weaker teams in their conference, simply lose more games as time goes on and these losing records negatively affect Valpo's SOS, which negatively affects their RPI to a large degree . Just a few days ago, Valpo was one place ahead of Green Bay in the official RPI as Green Bay fell below Valpo after having lost a game to Milwaukee. Then Valpo won its game and Green Bay lost its game to Cleveland State. What happened to their RPI after those games? Valpo drops three places to 65 and Green Bay moves up one place to replace Valpo at 62. SOS is 75% of your RPI and when you play KY and teams of that caliber, they stick to (and continually improve) your SOS as the season progresses, even though they beat you and yet their continued winning and playing stronger teams in conference continue to improve your RPI despite what you do, W or L. One's own W-L is only 25% of RPI. Ky and their opponents in their strong conference continue to increase Oakland's RPI  whether they win or lose their games and effect their RPI (to a certain degree) more than their own W-L record.

[justducky]

With the GB losses to us and CSU our RPI has inched down as a result of their significant fall. The result should move us almost completely off the bubble if we win out but fall in the championship game. You should never have to go to the NIT with only 5 defeats but----- Will somebody try to cheer me up and convince me I am wrong?

[Donjon VU07]

With the GB losses to us and CSU our RPI has inched down as a result of their significant fall. The result should move us almost completely off the bubble if we win out but fall in the championship game. You should never have to go to the NIT with only 5 defeats but----- Will somebody try to cheer me up and convince me I am wrong?

NCAA Sports article from March 10th 2014:
"10 years ago ...
Utah State went 25-3 and did not make the field, the best record for an eligible team ever to fail to get an at-large berth."
http://www.ncaa.com/news/basketball-men/article/2014-03-10/do-you-remember-when

At least we won't feel as screwed-over as Utah State did.

Going back to 2010, the only case I see of less than 6 losses in the NIT is Stephen F Austin at 27-4 in 2013.

[talksalot]

If we don't win the game on Tuesday March 10, 2015... we are NIT bound... just like Utah State 11 years ago...
========================================================================

March 14, 2004

LOGAN, Utah - Stew Morrill, Head Coach, Utah State University

General comments on not getting a NCAA Tournament bid:

"Whining is not going to accomplish a whole lot. You win 25 ball games and you go 17-1 in your league and everyone says no matter what you're in, well, no matter what happened, were not in. It really sends a tough message to mid-majors out there. We were nationally ranked for six weeks, won 25 games and went 17-1 in our league and the bottom line is, that you need to win your tournament. I wavered a little last week and said we were in no matter what, trying to be positive, which went against what I have been saying all along that we were a one bid conference. Guess what? We're a one bid conference. If you want to get in the tournament in about 18 leagues around the country you better win your tournament because that is what it is all about. As I told our players, this doesn't diminish the great season that we have had. It doesn't diminish the things we have accomplished, but it is tough. There are a lot of experts out there that seem to know a lot of things, but they don't know, the committee knows. You can't find fault with the guys that got in. There are several teams like us that had chances of getting in and had great seasons. We had a chance of playing our way in, which we have done several times when we haven't won the regular season. When you have benefited from winning the tournament then you have to take the consequences when you don't win the tournament. There is no point in whining. I don't whine well anyway."

Possible NIT bid:

"Hopefully we will have a chance to play again and we will see how we respond. I can't predict how we will respond. Last time we were in this position we didn't respond very well. We were devastated and didn't play worth a dang in the NIT Tournament versus Montana State. It's really hard to predict what's going to happen."

======================
SO... USU got a home game against Hawaii in the first round in the NIT as a consolation prize...
======================
March 17, 2004

LOGAN, Utah - Michael Kuebler scored 28 points to lead a hot-shooting Hawai'I team to a convincing 85-74 road win at 25th-ranked Utah State in the first round of the National Invitational Tournament here Wednesday.

The Rainbow Warriors improved to 20-11, while Utah State fell to 25-4. The loss snapped a 17-game homecourt winning streak for the Aggies, who lost for just the eighth time in their last 92 home games.

The 11-point loss was the biggest home loss in head coach Stew Morrill's six years as well as the largest at the Dee Glen Smith Spectrum since a 19-point loss (60-41) to Utah here in November of 1997.

Spencer Nelson led the Aggies with a career-high 24 points and recorded his fifth double-double of the season with 11 rebounds. Cardell Butler added 15 points, while Mark Brown and Mike Ahmad each chipped in 11 points.

However, Hawaii, shot 61.8 percent from the field, including making eight of 13 three-point attempts for 61.5 percent.

Hawai'I built up a 43-32 lead at halftime and then extended its margin to 18 points at 62-44 with 10:04 left in the game. USU cut the margin to nine at 73-64 with 4:07 left, but Hawai'I pushed the margin back to 15 points en route to the win.

USU, which entered the game shooting 51.1 percent from the field, made just 45.5 percent of its attempts, including just 40.7 percent in the first half.

[a3uge]

What really hurts Valpo's RPI this year, more than any other season is the poor records by everyone except Green Bay in the non-conference. UWM a .500 team in the league, was 3-9 in the non-conference, and their current RPI is 229. Oakland a title contender all year had a 3-10 non-conference record. Since 50% of the RPI is your opponent's record, it's so hard to move your RPI once league play begins. Additionally, the league's RPI has dropped from 13 to 16 simply by playing each other. Oakland's non-conference scheduling really hurts the league RPI (not that they care).

Could you please explain how Oakland's strong out of conference schedule hurts the Horizon League's RPI? I would think if it helps Oakland's RPI (which it certainly does), that everyone who plays Oakland in the conference is blessed with those top team's records and is part of their own RPI, more specifically their SOS, since it is weighted 75% to a team's opponents record and their opponent's opponents record. It seems to me that when any team in the HL plays, say, KY, win or lose,  their SOS will improve over time and so will the teams in the HL who plays against that team who played against KY. Tell me where I'm wrong.

What's the reasoning behind it?  I know this has been beaten to death.  If all teams can get on the same page as far as scheduling. 

Part of RPI your opponent's winning percentage. If Oakland had scheduled more winnable games, and not gone 3-10 in the OOC, our RPI would be improved twofold. They would have a better RPI with more Ws and we would have a better one because their win% was higher. That 3-10 is killing the conference RPI right now because they are a moderately good team who could have been 7-6 or better with a schedule similar Wright State's.

The fact that Oakland lost to these better teams is not relevant to SOS, a major part of RPI. Even though Oakland lost those games against strong opponents, their RPI is disproportionately helped more by their opponents (and opponents opponents) winning record than their own W-L record. In fact, Oakland's RPI can move up at a faster rate than Valpo's RPI (all things being equal) even though Oakland or Valpo hasn't played any games during that time period in which the increase/decrease in RPI is calculated. Looking solely at the SOS of your opponent and their winning record (and the winning record and SOS of their stronger conference opponents) can improve your RPI even if you lose games after playing them.

Take a look at Valpo for example. Every team they beat who has a losing record continues to be a drag on their RPI on an ongoing basis because those weaker teams, and the weaker teams in their conference, simply lose more games as time goes on and these losing records negatively affect Valpo's SOS, which negatively affects their RPI to a large degree . Just a few days ago, Valpo was one place ahead of Green Bay in the official RPI as Green Bay fell below Valpo after having lost a game to Milwaukee. Then Valpo won its game and Green Bay lost its game to Cleveland State. What happened to their RPI after those games? Valpo drops three places to 65 and Green Bay moves up one place to replace Valpo at 62. SOS is 75% of your RPI and when you play KY and teams of that caliber, they stick to (and continually improve) your SOS as the season progresses, even though they beat you and yet their continued winning and playing stronger teams in conference continue to improve your RPI despite what you do, W or L. One's own W-L is only 25% of RPI. Ky and their opponents in their strong conference continue to increase Oakland's RPI  whether they win or lose their games and effect their RPI (to a certain degree) more than their own W-L record.

You're half true. Your last sentence isn't true at all. Oakland's OOC RPI has actually decreased and projects to decrease to 205 from here on out. Also conference opponents are much more valuable to your RPI (you play them twice) than a strong OOC opponent. Scheduling strong OOC opponents on the road actually helps your RPI even if you lose... BUT, if you lose 10 OOC games because 6 of them are unwinnable, well you're poor winning percentage hurts your RPI and the whole conference.  Oakland's 200 OOC RPI isn't helping the league at all.

If Oakland scheduled games against say Bucknell and Akron, their RPI would be 7-8 spots lower, and they'd actually be above .500, and even if their RPI was the same with two wins over bad opponents the W-L record would help conference opponents because opponents W-L record accounts for more (50%) than opponent's opponents W-L record (25%). So having an 200 RPI team with an 7-6 team is better for the conference than a 200 RPI team with a 3-10 record.

But having a weak OOC schedule is reckless because most teams are bound to drop a couple bad road games. Valpo has gotten away with it because they've won so many games. They're certainly not hurting the conference. Like chef said, the amount of teams with losing records is what's dragging the top teams down.

[Just Sayin]

Can a team with a record of 13-14 have a better RPI than a team with a record of 17-5? If so, why is that?

[talksalot]

For Example... from the "Real Time" version of the RPI... this is through Noon Saturday....

77     Florida    13-14    0.5547   7    0.5944     Sec   6-8
78     Wyoming    19-6    0.5530   210    0.4780     Mwest   10-4
79     Georgia St.    17-8    0.5515   177    0.4892     Sbelt   3-3
80     UC Davis    18-4    0.5504   318    0.4397     Bigw   10-1

[Just Sayin]

For Example... from the "Real Time" version of the RPI... this is through Noon Saturday....

77     Florida    13-14    0.5547   7    0.5944     Sec   6-8
78     Wyoming    19-6    0.5530   210    0.4780     Mwest   10-4
79     Georgia St.    17-8    0.5515   177    0.4892     Sbelt   3-3
80     UC Davis    18-4    0.5504   318    0.4397     Bigw   10-1

Why does the 13-14 team have a higher RPI than the 18-4 team?

[talksalot]

Florida has played the 7th toughest schedule... UC Davis has played the 318th toughest Strength of Schedule.

If there was no consideration for "SOS"... Chicago State, Florida A&M and Liberty would be playing a schedule full of SEC, ACC and Big Ten games... !~!

Consider:  #339 San Jose State... 0-23... worst W/L record... has 12 teams ranked below them... including #340 Jacksonville who is 6-19.

[Just Sayin]

Florida has played the 7th toughest schedule... UC Davis has played the 318th toughest Strength of Schedule.

If there was no consideration for "SOS"... Chicago State, Florida A&M and Liberty would be playing a schedule full of SEC, ACC and Big Ten games... !~!

Consider:  #339 San Jose State... 0-23... worst W/L record... has 12 teams ranked below them... including #340 Jacksonville who is 6-19.

Exactly, a team's SOS increases the team's RPI over time because the weaker team with the better record has a weaker SOS and over time their opponents drag their RPI down. Thus my point which is that the tougher your schedule, your RPI will improve over time. We see this when we don't play any games at all but the next day we look at the RPI and we've dropped. Why? Because the weaker teams we have played keep losing and that affect our RPI through the SOS. If we look to the rank of strength of schedule within the Horizon League, we find:

Total SOS Rank
1. Oakland 109
2. Wright St. 117
3. Milwaukee 126
4. Detroit 140
5. Green Bay 143
6. UIC 148
7. Cleveland St. 168
8. Youngstown St. 190
9. Valparaiso 292
(Source 2/23/2015): http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/rpi/_/groupId/45

I am arguing that our RPI can be boosted without our even playing a game if certain teams beat other teams. If you go to the Palm Reader every day on days we don't play, Jerry Palm (CBS) lists the teams that need to win in order for our RPI to improve. If they lose, our RPI goes the other way. That's the math of RPI. The teams you have played in the past continue daily to affect your RPI whether you win, lose, or don't play at all. Now how much can your RPI increase/decrease is another question, but it is irrefutable that a team's RPI will be increased or decreased by mathematical formula every time one of your previous opponents plays a game. Whether there are enough games played by previous opponents and if the opponents  win the games that Palm says will boost your RPI will overcome a loss by your team is uncertain, but it could happen. As I've said before, Valpo won, Green Bay lost and yet the next day Green Bay jumped Valpo's RPI and Valpo actually fell 3 places. This proves my point.

I would argue that the teams with the best SOS, both in and out of conference (Oakland's out of conference SOS is nationally 27the place, Valpo's is 264), whether you beat those teams or not when you played them, will have their RPI improved over time on a day-to-day basis more than those teams with lower SOS because those stronger teams who were your opponents will win more games than lose them over time, which will boost your team's RPI even if they beat you when you played them. Take a look at Palm Reader and list the teams that must win in order for Valpo to have its RPI boosted. I've watched that list, sometimes it's just one or two teams, other times, it's six or more and when you look at the probability of Valpo's opponents winning, (see Pomeroy's work on win probability of every team) most of them are expected to lose, while more of Oakland's opponents who must win in order to boost Oakland's RPI are expected to win. It follows that Oakland's RPI is not hurting the conference when viewed over time. I argue just the opposite. You can't change an out of conference record that Oakland has of 3-10, but if Oakland never played another game after that, their RPI would increase over time and be greater than their RPI right after those games were played because the teams that beat them keep winning. And the math is that 75% of a team's RPI is dependent not on that team's own W-L record, but on your opponents W-L record and their opponents W-L record.

The math is the math.

[vusupporter]

Let's say you're 2-1.  In one scenario, the teams you've played are all 2-1, and their opponents are all 1-2.  In the other, flip-flop it - all your opponents are 1-2, but their opponents are all 2-1.

In scenario A, your RPI is .5835 (1/4 your .667 win pct., 1/2 your opponents' .667 win pct., 1/4 your opponents' opponents' .333 win pct.)
In scenario B, your RPI is .500 (1/4 your .667 win pct., 1/2 your opponents' .333 win pct., 1/4 your opponents' opponents' .667 win pct.)

Ergo, you want your opponents to have better records, regardless of what level of team they've been playing.

[wh]

What really hurts Valpo's RPI this year, more than any other season is the poor records by everyone except Green Bay in the non-conference. UWM a .500 team in the league, was 3-9 in the non-conference, and their current RPI is 229. Oakland a title contender all year had a 3-10 non-conference record. Since 50% of the RPI is your opponent's record, it's so hard to move your RPI once league play begins. Additionally, the league's RPI has dropped from 13 to 16 simply by playing each other. Oakland's non-conference scheduling really hurts the league RPI (not that they care).

Could you please explain how Oakland's strong out of conference schedule hurts the Horizon League's RPI? I would think if it helps Oakland's RPI (which it certainly does), that everyone who plays Oakland in the conference is blessed with those top team's records and is part of their own RPI, more specifically their SOS, since it is weighted 75% to a team's opponents record and their opponent's opponents record. It seems to me that when any team in the HL plays, say, KY, win or lose,  their SOS will improve over time and so will the teams in the HL who plays against that team who played against KY. Tell me where I'm wrong.

What's the reasoning behind it?  I know this has been beaten to death.  If all teams can get on the same page as far as scheduling. 

Part of RPI your opponent's winning percentage. If Oakland had scheduled more winnable games, and not gone 3-10 in the OOC, our RPI would be improved twofold. They would have a better RPI with more Ws and we would have a better one because their win% was higher. That 3-10 is killing the conference RPI right now because they are a moderately good team who could have been 7-6 or better with a schedule similar Wright State's.

The fact that Oakland lost to these better teams is not relevant to SOS, a major part of RPI. Even though Oakland lost those games against strong opponents, their RPI is disproportionately helped more by their opponents (and opponents opponents) winning record than their own W-L record. In fact, Oakland's RPI can move up at a faster rate than Valpo's RPI (all things being equal) even though Oakland or Valpo hasn't played any games during that time period in which the increase/decrease in RPI is calculated. Looking solely at the SOS of your opponent and their winning record (and the winning record and SOS of their stronger conference opponents) can improve your RPI even if you lose games after playing them.

Take a look at Valpo for example. Every team they beat who has a losing record continues to be a drag on their RPI on an ongoing basis because those weaker teams, and the weaker teams in their conference, simply lose more games as time goes on and these losing records negatively affect Valpo's SOS, which negatively affects their RPI to a large degree . Just a few days ago, Valpo was one place ahead of Green Bay in the official RPI as Green Bay fell below Valpo after having lost a game to Milwaukee. Then Valpo won its game and Green Bay lost its game to Cleveland State. What happened to their RPI after those games? Valpo drops three places to 65 and Green Bay moves up one place to replace Valpo at 62. SOS is 75% of your RPI and when you play KY and teams of that caliber, they stick to (and continually improve) your SOS as the season progresses, even though they beat you and yet their continued winning and playing stronger teams in conference continue to improve your RPI despite what you do, W or L. One's own W-L is only 25% of RPI. Ky and their opponents in their strong conference continue to increase Oakland's RPI  whether they win or lose their games and effect their RPI (to a certain degree) more than their own W-L record.

You're half true. Your last sentence isn't true at all. Oakland's OOC RPI has actually decreased and projects to decrease to 205 from here on out. Also conference opponents are much more valuable to your RPI (you play them twice) than a strong OOC opponent. Scheduling strong OOC opponents on the road actually helps your RPI even if you lose... BUT, if you lose 10 OOC games because 6 of them are unwinnable, well you're poor winning percentage hurts your RPI and the whole conference.  Oakland's 200 OOC RPI isn't helping the league at all.

If Oakland scheduled games against say Bucknell and Akron, their RPI would be 7-8 spots lower, and they'd actually be above .500, and even if their RPI was the same with two wins over bad opponents the W-L record would help conference opponents because opponents W-L record accounts for more (50%) than opponent's opponents W-L record (25%). So having an 200 RPI team with an 7-6 team is better for the conference than a 200 RPI team with a 3-10 record.

But having a weak OOC schedule is reckless because most teams are bound to drop a couple bad road games. Valpo has gotten away with it because they've won so many games. They're certainly not hurting the conference. Like chef said, the amount of teams with losing records is what's dragging the top teams down.

I'm proud of you, a3uge. 

[Just Sayin]

I'm proud of you, a3uge. 


He didn't refute my argument though.

[Kyle321n]

Let's say you're 2-1.  In one scenario, the teams you've played are all 2-1, and their opponents are all 1-2.  In the other, flip-flop it - all your opponents are 1-2, but their opponents are all 2-1.

In scenario A, your RPI is .5835 (1/4 your .667 win pct., 1/2 your opponents' .667 win pct., 1/4 your opponents' opponents' .333 win pct.)
In scenario B, your RPI is .500 (1/4 your .667 win pct., 1/2 your opponents' .333 win pct., 1/4 your opponents' opponents' .667 win pct.)

Ergo, you want your opponents to have better records, regardless of what level of team they've been playing.

Not going to lie, I don't care who our conference opponents play if they win their OOC games at a 66% clip. If you extrapolated Supporter's hypothetical and applied our 22-4 record to it our RPI would be 0.711 and good for #1 in the country. That's obviously silly

[valpo84]

The issue I have with RPI is it rewards mediocrity in the big conferences. They can sit back schedule 10-12 home OOC games win all of them play mediocre .500 ball in conference (winning record at home with a so called upset of a top-4 team in their conference on its home court) and have RPI's that put them on the bubble. Oh Florida (substitute Indiana or some middling Big 12 team) beat so and so (usually only at home, see WVA) so they deserve to be in. Those teams shouldn't be rewarded with their mediocrity.

Mid-majors aren't afforded that because if they schedule 10-12 OOC winnable games at home or away, go 10-2 or 12-0 and then go 12-4 or 13-3 or 14-2 in conference, play way over .500 on the road and lose in their tourney, suddenly they go careening off the bubble. The question I've asked is who deserves the bid. But the Committee claims blind resumes. Well, 24-4 or whatever to me is a better resume than 18-10 most days. I will say it has been better since they added the play-in games (68) as that has allowed the mid-major who has had the very successful season but slips up in their tourney and also  the power conference team both a shot to win and be in, usually against each other (see VCU).