ESPN bracketology

[SanityLost17]

Teams like Oakland play a very similar schedule to teams in the ACC, Big 10, PAC12, etc. EXCEPT IT IS REVERSED.  Instead of playing their easier opponents at the beginning of the season like the high majors, they play their easier opponents during the conference season.  Vice Versa... High majors play most of their "hard" games during conference where as teams like Oakland play them at the beginning of the year. 

On the surface, and as far as SOS is concerned, it would look like Oakland is doing a good thing by "scheduling like a high major - in reverse".  However, it is not the same, because the same chances of winning do not exist.  It is an illusion of sameness...Why? 
1. Oakland has to go on the road for ALL of their "hard" games early in the season; where as high majors enjoy a nice 50/50 balance during their "hard" conference season.
2. No matter how good a mid-major is, they are going to lose a couple of conference games, because winning in conference, especially on the road, is HARD (no matter how big or small the conference is).  Thus, Maryland playing 8 straight home games at the beginning of the season during the "easy" portion of their season can not be compared to the conference season of mid-major.   

Everyone wants to hold mid-majors to the same standard as high majors, but you simply can't do that, because mid-majors have no scheduling power. 

The NCAA needs scheduling bylaws.  If this gets rid of "pay games" then so be it.  In my estimation, there are about 100 schools in this country that shouldn't be playing D1 basketball anyway!  If you cant afford to run your program without pay money from major programs, move to D2 or D3!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[valpo4life]

Figured I'd throw this into the RPI mix:

Our most meaningful game in a positive sense was against Murray St. at a "weight" of 1.55
Our most meaningless game was the loss to New Mexico, which is weighted at exactly 0.
Our most meaningful game in a negative sense was being Maine at a weight of -1.48.

Got these stats from RPI forecast. For as much as we bash our OOC schedule. It's pretty clear league games hamper our potential RPI more than anything else. The only team really worth anything RPI wise is Green Bay. The Cleveland State win isn't even worth as much as beating Eastern Kentucky or James Madison. The bottom half of our league is pretty bad. Even Oakland and CSU fighting for the 2 seed lost games against a couple MAC opponents, a conference we are trying to compete with for respect. And we went 4-10 against them. If the rest of our conference doesn't pick it up, we're going to see more of the same every season even if we do improve our OOC schedule.

[justducky]

I love this kind of debate. It is educating all of us as well as venting some long held frustrations.

The issue I have with RPI is it rewards mediocrity in the big conferences. They can sit back schedule 10-12 home OOC games win all of them play mediocre .500 ball in conference (winning record at home with a so called upset of a top-4 team in their conference on its home court) and have RPI's that put them on the bubble. Oh Florida (substitute Indiana or some middling Big 12 team) beat so and so (usually only at home, see WVA) so they deserve to be in. Those teams shouldn't be rewarded with their mediocrity.

As an open question---  How were the BIG conferences able to recognize, design then implement successful OOC scheduling tactics 15 years before most of us clueless mid-major participants were aware that maybe we should be gaming the system as well? As I see it we are now so far behind that regaining lost ground is almost hopeless without some unity among mid major programs and conferences.

[valpo84]

Another factor justducky is money. The Power conferences have to have home dates to generate revenues for their arenas and programs. But, they need to make all those rich alumni happy in the lower bowls by winning games at home. The gaming was inherent in that system because OOC records start off so well, throw in a nice TV game here and there and then launch into conference season thinking you're a strong club because you're 12-1 with 1-1 against 2 power teams. The middle of the big Least in the old days mastered this. Frankly, Valpo's OOC schedule was pretty good for that as it had us 12-2. Unfortunately the rest of HL did similarly schedule or carry through. If Oakland had schedule similarly and been 10-4, eg, in OOC and now 10-4, that 20-8 would look real good in our RPI. The same would be true of GB and CSU.  YSU and UIC would actually help by playing and winning a bunch of 200-250 teams so their OOC RPI would be higher to start conference. Look bad teams are going to hamper RPI no matter what. It's like the old Mid-Con/Summit days. Again this argues for moving to Big Least or A-10.

[SanityLost17]

Another factor justducky is money. The Power conferences have to have home dates to generate revenues for their arenas and programs. But, they need to make all those rich alumni happy in the lower bowls by winning games at home. The gaming was inherent in that system because OOC records start off so well, throw in a nice TV game here and there and then launch into conference season thinking you're a strong club because you're 12-1 with 1-1 against 2 power teams. The middle of the big Least in the old days mastered this. Frankly, Valpo's OOC schedule was pretty good for that as it had us 12-2. Unfortunately the rest of HL did similarly schedule or carry through. If Oakland had schedule similarly and been 10-4, eg, in OOC and now 10-4, that 20-8 would look real good in our RPI. The same would be true of GB and CSU.  YSU and UIC would actually help by playing and winning a bunch of 200-250 teams so their OOC RPI would be higher to start conference. Look bad teams are going to hamper RPI no matter what. It's like the old Mid-Con/Summit days. Again this argues for moving to Big Least or A-10.

If all of the mid-majors and low-majors banded together and signed a pact to never sign any contract without some sort of home and away element, whether it be a 1-1, 2-1, 3-1, or 4-1, what do you think would happen?   Would the high majors cave after a few years and start accepting home and away contracts (in the forms listed above), or would the power conferences try to cut all the mid and low-majors out completely and lobby the NCAA to exclude them from the NCAA tournament for their insolence?

[crusaderjoe]

Another factor justducky is money. The Power conferences have to have home dates to generate revenues for their arenas and programs. But, they need to make all those rich alumni happy in the lower bowls by winning games at home. The gaming was inherent in that system because OOC records start off so well, throw in a nice TV game here and there and then launch into conference season thinking you're a strong club because you're 12-1 with 1-1 against 2 power teams. The middle of the big Least in the old days mastered this. Frankly, Valpo's OOC schedule was pretty good for that as it had us 12-2. Unfortunately the rest of HL did similarly schedule or carry through. If Oakland had schedule similarly and been 10-4, eg, in OOC and now 10-4, that 20-8 would look real good in our RPI. The same would be true of GB and CSU.  YSU and UIC would actually help by playing and winning a bunch of 200-250 teams so their OOC RPI would be higher to start conference. Look bad teams are going to hamper RPI no matter what. It's like the old Mid-Con/Summit days. Again this argues for moving to Big Least or A-10.

If all of the mid-majors and low-majors banded together and signed a pact to never sign any contract without some sort of home and away element, whether it be a 1-1, 2-1, 3-1, or 4-1, what do you think would happen?   Would the high majors cave after a few years and start accepting home and away contracts (in the forms listed above), or would the power conferences try to cut all the mid and low-majors out completely and lobby the NCAA to exclude them from the NCAA tournament for their insolence?

If banding together at the mid major level has even the remotest potential to disrupt the ability to earn large football body bag game payouts in any way shape or form, it is doubtful that this would ever occur, IMO.  Not all mid majors are equal in this analysis when it comes to prioritization because not all mid majors are "basketball" schools. 

Straight away, commandeering 2 or 3 for 1's from the high majors might look great on paper for schools like Valpo where basketball is the major asset.  But the same scenario might not look so good to a Georgia Southern, New Mexico State, or an Idaho if such actions have the ability to jeopardize football revenues.  Fellow mid major FIU is getting $1M to come to Bloomington and play IU next fall.  You think FIU is going to want to jeopardize the potential returns on their football assets for the sake of the greater good of mid major basketball scheduling if such actions disrupt P5 football payouts?

[a3uge]

When it comes to RPI, there is no need anymore to wait  for the weekly official NCAA number. They publish it on a daily basis.

One note of interest since last night's game won by Cleveland State is that Valpo jumped Green Bay by one place in the official RPI.

I'm proud of you, a3uge. 


He didn't refute my argument though.

I'm not entirely sure what your argument even is. Oakland's schedule netted them a 200 RPI OOC. And they're actually a decent team. Decent teams that net a 200 RPI OOC aren't scheduling correctly. Last year, Wright State had a non conference SOS of 340. They finished 8-8 OOC so obviously that approach didn't work either. Neither approach is healthy. Valpo's schedule OOC this year could have turned out to be disastrous, but considering Valpo's projected as a 12 seed, I don't think anyone from the conference has a right to complain. I have argued countless times that scheduling a couple of top teams on the road, although completely ridiculous and unfair, is necessary to game RPI and help SOS. You're saying this and I'm agreeing with you. But, scheduling too many tough games as to where you finish your OOC portion under .500 is terrible for everyone involved. I don't know how anyone can conceivably argue that. If Oakland STILL isn't above .500 and only have 4 conference losses.

I think I get where you're coming from with the argument that if you schedule all these top teams, you can just sit and watch your RPI decrease like magic without playing any games. Oakland's RPI was 205 in their non-con and now estimates to 195 with HL teams ripped out. But that's still terrible and it doesn't always work like that. Teams with top 10 OOC RPI's like Northwestern St. and UC Santa Barbara actually project to a worse RPI throughout the year with their schedules, so I'm not convinced this is completely legitimate.

[78crusader]

Instead of all this hand-wringing over the big schools that refuse to play us, why not play as many of our non-conference games against other mid-majors as we can? Belmont, Murray State, Drake, Evansville, Iona, Akron, Florida Gulf Coast, Western Michigan, Toledo and Bradley are just a few of the schools that come to mind. Wouldn't these schools be better than some of the weaker opponents on this year's schedule?

Paul

[bbtds]

The Oakland fans don't care, but I thought LeCrone made a point when they were accepted that they must change their occ philosophy.  I also thought he made an exception with the size of their bball stadium.  If they were to host, the HL would lose a little money because ticket sells wouldn't be as much. 

Kampe himself made a statement that he would back off scheduling the big conference schools when it was announced that Oakland would be joining the HL. Kampe backed off that statement because he said the players really wanted those games against the big conference teams and his AD really liked the money the school was earning from those games. If you can't read between the lines, the AD said "Greg, we can't stop getting those checks. We can't pay for the other sports without them." It truly is all about the money in the suburban area of Oakland County, MI. Kampe doesn't have the backbone to say "no" to his AD and players.

[a3uge]

The thing is, it's going to be hard for Oakland to maintain this type of schedule if they ever become a decent mid major. These teams don't want to risk a home 50-100 rpi loss to a mid major when they can take their pick of guaranteed wins.

[chef]

Oakland actually is a very good team. They've beaten Valpo, Green Bay, Cleveland State and nearly won at Pitt. They'll always be able to find majors to play them for the right price.

[chef]

Oh, and they'll never be a top 50 rpi scheduling like this. They'll be 3-10 every year in the non-conference no matter how good they get. Horizon League teams don't win at Iowa State, Michigan State, Maryland, and Arizona. It just doesn't happen and it never will.

[justducky]

Instead of all this hand-wringing over the big schools that refuse to play us, why not play as many of our non-conference games against other mid-majors as we can? Belmont, Murray State, Drake, Evansville, Iona, Akron, Florida Gulf Coast, Western Michigan, Toledo and Bradley are just a few of the schools that come to mind. Wouldn't these schools be better than some of the weaker opponents on this year's schedule?

Absolutely, but setting up enough equivalent mid majors in advance for home and homes (weekends?) is tricky and travel intensive. The 3 and 4 team associations i suggested on the Exempt Tournament thread could give us 2 or 3 quality games on a long weekend instead of the piecemeal, fill in the blanks approach which always leaves us with scheduling gaps requiring less than optimal choices. Just my opinion. 

[SanityLost17]

Oh, and they'll never be a top 50 rpi scheduling like this. They'll be 3-10 every year in the non-conference no matter how good they get. Horizon League teams don't win at Iowa State, Michigan State, Maryland, and Arizona. It just doesn't happen and it never will.

Not on the road.  However, I do believe this can be done at a neutral court site.  Think our past games at Kansas and Wisconsin.  2 very close games, I don't remember the exact years, that we no doubt would have won had those games not been true road games.  All HL teams need to start scheduling tough mid-major opponents and paying big money to get in tournaments that give them big opponents on neutral courts.  We have several teams that could do damage with a schedule like that. 

[chef]

Oakland plays at these large arenas to pick up big checks. It's unlikely anybody in the league will be playing these teams on a neutral court much. It will happen occasionally in a tournament, but not very often, especially with Oakland.

[valpo84]

Thanks Chef just had a Falu Arizona game flashback!! See you Friday night!!

[covufan]

Not on the road.  However, I do believe this can be done at a neutral court site. 

Here are your choices of 'neutral' courts:  Kansas City for Kansas; Fieldhouse in Indy for IU or Purdue; Charlotte for UNC or Duke; etc.  These are the choices you'd get if you tried to schedule the bigs on a neutral court in the OOC schedule.  They would be trying to get alumni in those areas a chance to see their team.  Not really neutral.

[covufan]

Instead of all this hand-wringing over the big schools that refuse to play us, why not play as many of our non-conference games against other mid-majors as we can? Belmont, Murray State, Drake, Evansville, Iona, Akron, Florida Gulf Coast, Western Michigan, Toledo and Bradley are just a few of the schools that come to mind. Wouldn't these schools be better than some of the weaker opponents on this year's schedule?

Paul

I might add ETSU, Portland, IPFW, E. Kentucky, Ball St., and James Madison (all from this year's schedule) - but the trouble has always been 'getting' them scheduled.  I realize that with holidays and finals getting teams that fit onto the calendar can be difficult.  For that reason I can see having one less than Division I team on the schedule, especially around finals.  Three is too many.  With the team that is expected back, we might need to schedule one or two away games with no expectation of a return game.  Or we could offer a return game sometime in the next two seasons at the United Center (for Illinois, IU, Purdue, Michigan St., ND, etc). 

Other than having three less than Division I home games, I really think this year's OOC schedule was OK - Missouri, New Mexico at home, ETSU, Murray St., Portland, E. Kentucky, IPFW and James Madison were all good opponents. 

[Just Sayin]

This may have been mentioned elsewhere, but speaking of bracketology, Valpo is a 12 seed playing 5 seed Arkansas. If they win, they play the winner of Baylor (4) and Murray State (13), all according to Jerry Palm:

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology

Now Valpo/Baylor would be an exciting game to watch for many reasons.

[a3uge]

Oakland actually is a very good team. They've beaten Valpo, Green Bay, Cleveland State and nearly won at Pitt. They'll always be able to find majors to play them for the right price.

But if they were good enough to upset these teams on the road, these schools wouldn't schedule them. There's just little incentive for major programs to schedule decent mid majors when they can schedule a top 10 team at home or on the road. They don't have to worry about SOS or RPI and can just schedule wins against .500 mid major teams.

[LaPorteAveApostle]

Thanks Chef just had a Falu Arizona game flashback!! See you Friday night!!

thanks for sparking the inspiration

[agibson]

This may have been mentioned elsewhere, but speaking of bracketology, Valpo is a 12 seed playing 5 seed Arkansas. If they win, they play the winner of Baylor (4) and Murray State (13), all according to Jerry Palm:

http://www.cbssports.com/collegebasketball/bracketology

Now Valpo/Baylor would be an exciting game to watch for many reasons.

I'd definitely take that bracket!  I could get behind a Murray St rematch, as well.

[Just Sayin]

Palm Reader Games for Today that could boost Valpo's RPI:

Ball State needs to beat Western Michigan. Pomeroy's probability that Ball State will win: 42%

Missouri needs to beat Florida. Probability of this: 22%

New Mexico must beat Boise State: Probability: 16%

Likely effect on Valpo's RPI = down, but it may or may not result in Valpo moving from its current place of 64.
=============================================

Oakland's RPI will be boosted if:

Maryland over Wisconsin
Probability: 29%

Eastern Michigan over Central Michigan
Probability 52%

Toledo over Northern Illinois
Probability 88%

Western Michigan over Ball State
Probability 58%

Pitt over Boston College
Probability 83%

Likely outcome is that Oakland's RPI will increase but maybe not enough to move up. (Current 134)
=====================================

Which team, if the probabilities play out, will drag down the Horizon League's RPI today? Valpo, not Oakland (who has an out of conference W-L of 3-10) -
which had nothing to do with their expected increase in RPI. Why?  SOS, regardless of whether they won or lost against those stronger teams.

[a3uge]

Palm Reader Games for Today that could boost Valpo's RPI:

Ball State needs to beat Western Michigan. Pomeroy's probability that Ball State will win: 42%

Missouri needs to beat Florida. Probability of this: 22%

New Mexico must beat Boise State: Probability: 16%

Likely effect on Valpo's RPI = down, but it may or may not result in Valpo moving from its current place of 64.
=============================================

Oakland's RPI will be boosted if:

Maryland over Wisconsin
Probability: 29%

Eastern Michigan over Central Michigan
Probability 52%

Toledo over Northern Illinois
Probability 88%

Western Michigan over Ball State
Probability 58%

Pitt over Boston College
Probability 83%

Likely outcome is that Oakland's RPI will increase.
=====================================

Which team, if the probabilities play out, will drag down the Horizon League's RPI today? Valpo, not Oakland (who has an out of conference W-L of 3-10) -
which had nothing to do with their expected increase in RPI. Why?  SOS, regardless of whether they won or lost against those stronger teams.

Yes, the team with the best projected RPI is dragging down the conference's RPI, not the team that's under .500 with an OOC RPI around 200. But thank god they lost all those games so their OOC RPI can go from 200 to 195. Well worth it. Thanks Oakland for keeping the conference afloat.

[valpo4life]

Palm Reader Games for Today that could boost Valpo's RPI:

Ball State needs to beat Western Michigan. Pomeroy's probability that Ball State will win: 42%

Missouri needs to beat Florida. Probability of this: 22%

New Mexico must beat Boise State: Probability: 16%

Likely effect on Valpo's RPI = down, but it may or may not result in Valpo moving from its current place of 64.
=============================================

Oakland's RPI will be boosted if:

Maryland over Wisconsin
Probability: 29%

Eastern Michigan over Central Michigan
Probability 52%

Toledo over Northern Illinois
Probability 88%

Western Michigan over Ball State
Probability 58%

Pitt over Boston College
Probability 83%

Likely outcome is that Oakland's RPI will increase.
=====================================

Which team, if the probabilities play out, will drag down the Horizon League's RPI today? Valpo, not Oakland (who has an out of conference W-L of 3-10) -
which had nothing to do with their expected increase in RPI. Why?  SOS, regardless of whether they won or lost against those stronger teams.

Yes, the team with the best projected RPI is dragging down the conference's RPI, not the team that's under .500 with an OOC RPI around 200. But thank god they lost all those games so their OOC RPI can go from 200 to 195. Well worth it. Thanks Oakland for keeping the conference afloat.

Don't give Oakland too much credit. ESPN has their OOC RPI at 270. Good thing they have an OOC SOS of 26 though. That's helping the conference so much...