ESPN bracketology

[hailcrusaders]

How long has this RPI conversation dragged on? Anyone else not care?

[Just Sayin]

Palm Reader Games for Today that could boost Valpo's RPI:

Ball State needs to beat Western Michigan. Pomeroy's probability that Ball State will win: 42%

Missouri needs to beat Florida. Probability of this: 22%

New Mexico must beat Boise State: Probability: 16%

Likely effect on Valpo's RPI = down, but it may or may not result in Valpo moving from its current place of 64.
=============================================

Oakland's RPI will be boosted if:

Maryland over Wisconsin
Probability: 29%

Eastern Michigan over Central Michigan
Probability 52%

Toledo over Northern Illinois
Probability 88%

Western Michigan over Ball State
Probability 58%

Pitt over Boston College
Probability 83%

Likely outcome is that Oakland's RPI will increase.
=====================================

Which team, if the probabilities play out, will drag down the Horizon League's RPI today? Valpo, not Oakland (who has an out of conference W-L of 3-10) -
which had nothing to do with their expected increase in RPI. Why?  SOS, regardless of whether they won or lost against those stronger teams.

Yes, the team with the best projected RPI is dragging down the conference's RPI, not the team that's under .500 with an OOC RPI around 200. But thank god they lost all those games so their OOC RPI can go from 200 to 195. Well worth it. Thanks Oakland for keeping the conference afloat.

Your comment is divorced from reality. You continue to be stubborn when you should concede the argument. Exaggeration and sarcasm is a weak way to argue.

[Just Sayin]

Palm Reader Games for Today that could boost Valpo's RPI:

Ball State needs to beat Western Michigan. Pomeroy's probability that Ball State will win: 42%

Missouri needs to beat Florida. Probability of this: 22%

New Mexico must beat Boise State: Probability: 16%

Likely effect on Valpo's RPI = down, but it may or may not result in Valpo moving from its current place of 64.
=============================================

Oakland's RPI will be boosted if:

Maryland over Wisconsin
Probability: 29%

Eastern Michigan over Central Michigan
Probability 52%

Toledo over Northern Illinois
Probability 88%

Western Michigan over Ball State
Probability 58%

Pitt over Boston College
Probability 83%

Likely outcome is that Oakland's RPI will increase.
=====================================

Which team, if the probabilities play out, will drag down the Horizon League's RPI today? Valpo, not Oakland (who has an out of conference W-L of 3-10) -
which had nothing to do with their expected increase in RPI. Why?  SOS, regardless of whether they won or lost against those stronger teams.

Yes, the team with the best projected RPI is dragging down the conference's RPI, not the team that's under .500 with an OOC RPI around 200. But thank god they lost all those games so their OOC RPI can go from 200 to 195. Well worth it. Thanks Oakland for keeping the conference afloat.

Don't give Oakland too much credit. ESPN has their OOC RPI at 270. Good thing they have an OOC SOS of 26 though. That's helping the conference so much...

Currently it is because of their horrible record OOC, but that doesn't stop their RPI from going up every time one of those strong teams that beat them play and win.

[a3uge]

Okay, let's do some 'math is math' to find out why Oakland's scheduling is actually hurting US. Let's replace Oakland with a couple teams that have more wins, but worse RPIs. Let's say Belmont. Not because they'd be a good addition to the Horizon, but because they fit the criteria.

Belmont
Expected RPI:   141.1
Current RPI:   136
Expected SOS:   276
Current SOS:   245
Current Record:   17-10
Expected Record:   18-10
Current Conf Record:   10-5
Expected Conf Record:   11-5
Current OOC Record:   7-5
Expected OOC RPI:   140
Expected OOC SOS:   219

Now look at oakland

Oakland

Conference:   Horz
Expected RPI:   133.6
Current RPI:   134
Expected SOS:   107
Current SOS:   108
Current Record:   13-14
Expected Record:   14-15
Current Conf Record:   10-4
Expected Conf Record:   11-5
Current OOC Record:   3-10
Expected OOC RPI:   194
Expected OOC SOS:   22

219 vs 22 OOC SOS? Ouch. 2 RPI spots below Oakland... you'd assume with Oakland's better expected RPI, better RPI, and better SOS they'd be better for the conference than someone with more wins like Belmont, right?

Not at all. RPI doesn't care about team's individual RPIs, it cares about opponent's W/L (50%) and their opponent's W/L (25%). Your opponents raw W/L record will do more good than their opponent's opponents W/L record. Simulating a season with Oakland (made sure to account for any weird happenings in the RPI Wizard) and Belmont in their place yielded interesting results:





Since Belmont's W/L record is significantly better, it actually helped both Valpo's SOS and RPI. So when we say scheduling too many unwinnable games actually hurts the conference, it actually hurts the conference.

[Just Sayin]

Okay, let's do some 'math is math' to find out why Oakland's scheduling is actually hurting US. Let's replace Oakland with a couple teams that have more wins, but worse RPIs. Let's say Belmont. Not because they'd be a good addition to the Horizon, but because they fit the criteria.

Belmont
Expected RPI:   141.1
Current RPI:   136
Expected SOS:   276
Current SOS:   245
Current Record:   17-10
Expected Record:   18-10
Current Conf Record:   10-5
Expected Conf Record:   11-5
Current OOC Record:   7-5
Expected OOC RPI:   140
Expected OOC SOS:   219

Now look at oakland

Oakland

Conference:   Horz
Expected RPI:   133.6
Current RPI:   134
Expected SOS:   107
Current SOS:   108
Current Record:   13-14
Expected Record:   14-15
Current Conf Record:   10-4
Expected Conf Record:   11-5
Current OOC Record:   3-10
Expected OOC RPI:   194
Expected OOC SOS:   22

219 vs 22 OOC SOS? Ouch. 2 RPI spots below Oakland... you'd assume with Oakland's better expected RPI, better RPI, and better SOS they'd be better for the conference than someone with more wins like Belmont, right?

Not at all. RPI doesn't care about team's individual RPIs, it cares about opponent's W/L (50%) and their opponent's W/L (25%). Your opponents raw W/L record will do more good than their opponent's opponents W/L record. Simulating a season with Oakland (made sure to account for any weird happenings in the RPI Wizard) and Belmont in their place yielded interesting results:





Since Belmont's W/L record is significantly better, it actually helped both Valpo's SOS and RPI. So when we say scheduling too many unwinnable games actually hurts the conference, it actually hurts the conference.

Sad that you don't even know when you've lost an argument and rather than man-up, admit you are wrong, you continue to say things that have nothing to do with my argument. Concede before you embarrass yourself further.

[a3uge]

Also, you're welcome.

[a3uge]

Sad that you don't even know when you've lost an argument and rather than man-up, admit you are wrong, you continue to say things that have nothing to do with my argument. Concede before you embarrass yourself further.

Using actual data to contradict the notion that Valpo is a drag on the conference's RPI, not Oakland because of their SOS... Yup, how embarrassing.

[SanityLost17]

The MAC is currently the 10th best RPI conference.  They also have the 31st ranked OOC-SOS.   Look at each teams OOC-SOS compared to their forcasted SOS for the end of the season. 

http://www.rpiforecast.com/confs/MAC.html

I find this very interesting.  Other than Buffalo, everybody beat up on cupcakes in the non-con.  All had bad SOS's, yet after playing each other in conference multiple times, they all have pretty respectable SOS's and pretty darn good RPI's. 

I am not advocating that the HL play the weakest non-con SOS in America.  However, it is very likely that the winner of this league will have a better seed than any team that we send.  So it worked.         

[oklahomamick]

Schools who need the money will continue to prostitute themselves out.  Yes a couple games against those Giants is okay as its a great experience for them and the team.  However when you over do it and its for a paycheck it becomes embarrassing. 

LeCrone or the HL will not tell a school how to schedule if they depend on it to make money. 

[LaPorteAveApostle]

How long has this RPI conversation dragged on? Anyone else not care?

my dad went to RPI.  i've heard about it longer than you.

[justducky]

I find this very interesting.  Other than Buffalo, everybody beat up on cupcakes in the non-con.  All had bad SOS's, yet after playing each other in conference multiple times, they all have pretty respectable SOS's and pretty darn good RPI's. 

I am not advocating that the HL play the weakest non-con SOS in America.  However, it is very likely that the winner of this league will have a better seed than any team that we send.  So it worked.     

On paper it looks like a stronger league but it is still one bid and even with Buffalo having a lower RPI their 9 losses could hold back the seed they might receive. I don't see the others any better than the worst 13.

[Valpofan00]

How long has this RPI conversation dragged on? Anyone else not care?

Not one bit

[justducky]

The Horizon had a 3 win 10 loss record vs the MAC. I guess we are their cupcake.

Would this scheduling approach have persuaded Central Michigan to avoid VU and instead play Maine and Pine Bluff or was that our choice?

[a3uge]

The Horizon had a 3 win 10 loss record vs the MAC. I guess we are their cupcake.

Would this scheduling approach have persuaded Central Michigan to avoid VU and instead play Maine and Pine Bluff or was that our choice?

That's interesting. I feel like they conned us into the worst tournament ever made. I still don't understand why we never played CMU.

[chef]

It was Central Michigan's tournament and they wanted two wins. The schedule was done accordingly. I think most people agree the ideal schedule for HL teams would consist of a lot of games against solid mid-majors, with one or two guarantee games, and a very good three game tournament (i.e. Nashville). Then you need to win those toss up games. This year was pretty much ideal for Valpo. However, the weakness of teams such as Ball State, Maine, Drake and Pine Bluff really hurt the OOC SOS.

[a3uge]

It was Central Michigan's tournament and they wanted two wins. The schedule was done accordingly. I think most people agree the ideal schedule for HL teams would consist of a lot of games against solid mid-majors, with one or two guarantee games, and a very good three game tournament (i.e. Nashville). Then you need to win those toss up games. This year was pretty much ideal for Valpo. However, the weakness of teams such as Ball State, Maine, Drake and Pine Bluff really hurt the OOC SOS.

I feel we can find some easy wins without resorting to Arkansas Pine Bluff or Maine. Those teams are historically terrible and it's easy to predict that they'll be terrible.

[mvandersee]

I think most people agree the ideal schedule for HL teams would consist of a lot of games against solid mid-majors, with one or two guarantee games, and a very good three game tournament (i.e. Nashville). Then you need to win those toss up games. This year was pretty much ideal for Valpo. However, the weakness of teams such as Ball State, Maine, Drake and Pine Bluff really hurt the OOC SOS.

I agree that that formula you listed would be ideal but what about this season's OOC schedule would lead you to believe that "This year was pretty much ideal for Valpo" in comparison to what you listed? IMO the preseason ranked #9 MVC team (Drake), preseason ranked #8 America East team (Maine), #4 preseason ranked SWAC team (Arkansas PB), and preseason ranked dead last team in the MAC (Ball St) cannot be considered "solid mid-majors". They were games against teams who were widely acknowledged as having very little shot at doing much of anything this season. If we had teams like SFA, VCU, UNI, Harvard, Toledo, or Belmont to go along with our games against New Mexico and Murray St then I'd agree, but pairing lower tier mid-major conference teams with 3 non-D1 games doesn't make for an "ideal" scheduling year in my opinion.

[chef]

I guess it's never going to be ideal. I strongly agree with you on the 3 non-DI and I'm told it will never happen again. As for Maine, APB, and Drake, they were tournament opponents that Valpo did not choose. That's always going to happen, just hopefully not to the negative extreme of Maine. The wins over Murray State and Portland certainly offset the other tournament opponents. I think the rotating home and home with Ball State is a gamble that you have to accept. The game is good for many obvious reasons. You just have to hope their program will step up and it will become a good RPI game for many years to come.

[usc4valpo]

Also, who would have known that Valpo would face Missouri and New Mexico when they are having down years.  Those games obviously do not help their RPI or Sagarin rating.

Despite RPI, I would like to see Valpo face DePaul and Northwestern. With such short proximity, it is a shame and ridiculas they cannot set schedule.

[talksalot]

my dad went to RPI.  i've heard about it longer than you.

and MY dad went to Middlebury... who HATES RPI... and I've heard about that for a VERY long time....

[justducky]

I guess it's never going to be ideal. I strongly agree with you on the 3 non-DI and I'm told it will never happen again.

[talksalot]

so let's see what actually happened...

Palm Reader Games for Today that could boost Valpo's RPI:

Ball State needs to beat Western Michigan. Pomeroy's probability that Ball State will win: 42%... WMU WINS

Missouri needs to beat Florida. Probability of this: 22%.... MISSOURI WINS

New Mexico must beat Boise State: Probability: 16%... BOISE STATE WINS              so... 1 out of 3 good things happened.

Likely effect on Valpo's RPI = down, but it may or may not result in Valpo moving from its current place of 64.
=============================================

Oakland's RPI will be boosted if:

Maryland over Wisconsin.......     MARYLAND WINS
Probability: 29%

Eastern Michigan over Central Michigan..........   CMU WINS
Probability 52%

Toledo over Northern Illinois.........   POSTPONED   TOLEDO, Ohio – NIU men's basketball game at Toledo has been postponed due to a water main break at Toledo's Savage Arena.  The Huskies and Rockets will play on Wednesday night, Feb. 25, at 8 p.m. ET (7 p.m. CT) as the second half of a doubleheader with the Toledo women's basketball team.
Probability 88%

Western Michigan over Ball State........  WMU WINS
Probability 58%

Pitt over Boston College...........    PITT WINS
Probability 83%

Likely outcome is that Oakland's RPI will increase.                     3 OUT OF 4 GOOD THINGS HAPPENED FOR OU

warrennolan.com is the only RPI that's been updated with these results...
Valpo went from 64 to 63
OU went from 134 to 133

[wh]

Blah, blah, blah, blah

If you don't mind, let's cut to the chase here.

I think Oakland knows full well that scheduling 6 buy games hurts the conference RPI and, realistically, does nothing for Oakland itself except add 6 losses to their won/loss record. The problem they're having is how do they replace $500K in revenue that they have long used as a crutch to support their athletic department budget.  This is especially problematic right now because they already have their 2015 budget in place, which includes Nov. and Dec. (when buy games are played). That means that as we speak they are already locked in to a minimum number of buy games for next season.   

So, here's my question for you, Scott. How many buy games do you plan on playing next season? 

[crusaderjoe]

I guess it's never going to be ideal. I strongly agree with you on the 3 non-DI and I'm told it will never happen again.

Does this mean that the AD holds open the possibility to continue to schedule at least two?  Dear lord, I hope not.

I'm all in favor for scheduling the occasional non D-I opponent, like a St. Joes for example, where there has been significant historical athletic ties between the two schools.  In fact I would venture to say that some of our older alumni who remember SJC as conference mates might like to see them on the schedule here and there.  But the point of scheduling an IU-Kokomo, where there was absolutely no competitive history between schools, was what?  I hope your statement reads that there will be a concerted effort to move away from scheduling non D-I teams principally as a matter of course moving forward.

[agibson]

I guess it's never going to be ideal. I strongly agree with you on the 3 non-DI and I'm told it will never happen again.

There is always the argument that they're better than the 300 RPI set.  At least beating them doesn't -hurt- your RPI.