ESPN bracketology

[agibson]

Blah, blah, blah, blah

If you don't mind, let's cut to the chase here.

I think Oakland knows full well that scheduling 6 buy games hurts the conference RPI and, realistically, does nothing for Oakland itself except add 6 losses to their won/loss record. The problem they're having is how do they replace $500K in revenue that they have long used as a crutch to support their athletic department budget.  This is especially problematic right now because they already have their 2015 budget in place, which includes Nov. and Dec. (when buy games are played). That means that as we speak they are already locked in to a minimum number of buy games for next season.   

So, here's my question for you, Scott. How many buy games do you plan on playing next season? 

You're probably right that finances are a big part of this. I'm sure there's also at least a dose of "challenge yourself against the best", "the players enjoy playing big time competition, they'll tell their grand kids about it" and maybe "these are the teams we'll play in the NCAA."

But, there was sone earlier analysis posted showing that these payday games (at least against the very best) probably do help the loser's RPI.  Even if they drag down the rest of the conference.

I don't imagine that coaches care -too- much about gaming the RPI.  So, it may not influence their scheduling.  But, it's an interesting effect.

[agibson]

Thinking about seeding for a moment.  We've maybe slipped slightly on bracketmatrix.com, essentially now in a tie with Harvard and Wofford for the best non-at large AQ slots.  That site has the three filling outvthe 12 line.  With another group of three (including Murray State) essentially tied, not far behind us.

[justducky]

There is always the argument that they're better than the 300 RPI set.  At least beating them doesn't -hurt- your RPI.

Wrong answer! I pointed out months ago that this is an unintended consequence of their flawed methodology and a slight adjustment could be of significant help to bottom D1 scheduling.

[Just Sayin]

so let's see what actually happened...

Palm Reader Games for Today that could boost Valpo's RPI:

Ball State needs to beat Western Michigan. Pomeroy's probability that Ball State will win: 42%... WMU WINS

Missouri needs to beat Florida. Probability of this: 22%.... MISSOURI WINS

New Mexico must beat Boise State: Probability: 16%... BOISE STATE WINS              so... 1 out of 3 good things happened.

Likely effect on Valpo's RPI = down, but it may or may not result in Valpo moving from its current place of 64.
=============================================

Oakland's RPI will be boosted if:

Maryland over Wisconsin.......     MARYLAND WINS
Probability: 29%

Eastern Michigan over Central Michigan..........   CMU WINS
Probability 52%

Toledo over Northern Illinois.........   POSTPONED   TOLEDO, Ohio – NIU men's basketball game at Toledo has been postponed due to a water main break at Toledo's Savage Arena.  The Huskies and Rockets will play on Wednesday night, Feb. 25, at 8 p.m. ET (7 p.m. CT) as the second half of a doubleheader with the Toledo women's basketball team.
Probability 88%

Western Michigan over Ball State........  WMU WINS
Probability 58%

Pitt over Boston College...........    PITT WINS
Probability 83%

Likely outcome is that Oakland's RPI will increase.                     3 OUT OF 4 GOOD THINGS HAPPENED FOR OU

warrennolan.com is the only RPI that's been updated with these results...
Valpo went from 64 to 63
OU went from 134 to 133

A "likely" outcome is not a "certain" outcome when teams are placed by number, i.e., 62 or 63, etc. A team can improve its calculated RPI but remain in the same numerical place in rankings because the actual RPI calculation is on relative basis compared to every other team's RPI and some teams' improvement might be greater than other teams' improvement such that one cannot say it is certain that any improvement in calculated RPI necessarily means an improvement in one's numerical ranking(place). Also, on any given day, a team's calculated RPI can go down but down less than the other teams and thereby an improvement in rank is possible..There is only one thing that determines one's ranking and that is the ***calculated RPI of every team.*** And every time any team plays a game, all other teams in Div. 1 have their RPI recalculated and the rankings are re-done and they often change for a good number of teams (many of whom didn't even play a game) even if only a very few teams actually play games on a given day. So Valpo's improvement is understandable and is not inconsistent with my argument. And Oakland's improvement was likely to occur given most of the teams that needed to win actually won. But they *could* have stayed the same in their rank while at the same time having an improved calculated RPI. A team's place is relative to every other team's new calculated RPI.

*** RPI = (WP * 0.25) + (OWP * 0.50) + (OOWP * 0.25)

where WP is Winning Percentage (adjusted for road/home/neutral floor),

OWP is Opponents' Winning Percentage (unadjusted) and

OOWP is Opponents' Opponents' Winning Percentage (unadjusted)

[wh]

Blah, blah, blah, blah

If you don't mind, let's cut to the chase here.

I think Oakland knows full well that scheduling 6 buy games hurts the conference RPI and, realistically, does nothing for Oakland itself except add 6 losses to their won/loss record. The problem they're having is how do they replace $500K in revenue that they have long used as a crutch to support their athletic department budget.  This is especially problematic right now because they already have their 2015 budget in place, which includes Nov. and Dec. (when buy games are played). That means that as we speak they are already locked in to a minimum number of buy games for next season.   

So, here's my question for you, Scott. How many buy games do you plan on playing next season? 

You're probably right that finances are a big part of this. I'm sure there's also at least a dose of "challenge yourself against the best", "the players enjoy playing big time competition, they'll tell their grand kids about it" and maybe "these are the teams we'll play in the NCAA."

But, there was sone earlier analysis posted showing that these payday games (at least against the very best) probably do help the loser's RPI.  Even if they drag down the rest of the conference.

I don't imagine that coaches care -too- much about gaming the RPI.  So, it may not influence their scheduling.  But, it's an interesting effect.

I would imagine every mid major player would like the experience of going up against the big boys on a major stage, regardless of how lopsided the outcome might me. That said, I seriously doubt there would be much interest in traveling all over the country to get your brains beat out over and over by teams with higher level talent on their home court.  But, rather than speculate let's ask our celebrity Oakland troll, JustSayin. He's in a much better position to know. What say you, Scott?

[a3uge]

so let's see what actually happened...

Palm Reader Games for Today that could boost Valpo's RPI:

Ball State needs to beat Western Michigan. Pomeroy's probability that Ball State will win: 42%... WMU WINS

Missouri needs to beat Florida. Probability of this: 22%.... MISSOURI WINS

New Mexico must beat Boise State: Probability: 16%... BOISE STATE WINS              so... 1 out of 3 good things happened.

Likely effect on Valpo's RPI = down, but it may or may not result in Valpo moving from its current place of 64.
=============================================

Oakland's RPI will be boosted if:

Maryland over Wisconsin.......     MARYLAND WINS
Probability: 29%

Eastern Michigan over Central Michigan..........   CMU WINS
Probability 52%

Toledo over Northern Illinois.........   POSTPONED   TOLEDO, Ohio – NIU men's basketball game at Toledo has been postponed due to a water main break at Toledo's Savage Arena.  The Huskies and Rockets will play on Wednesday night, Feb. 25, at 8 p.m. ET (7 p.m. CT) as the second half of a doubleheader with the Toledo women's basketball team.
Probability 88%

Western Michigan over Ball State........  WMU WINS
Probability 58%

Pitt over Boston College...........    PITT WINS
Probability 83%

Likely outcome is that Oakland's RPI will increase.                     3 OUT OF 4 GOOD THINGS HAPPENED FOR OU

warrennolan.com is the only RPI that's been updated with these results...
Valpo went from 64 to 63
OU went from 134 to 133

A "likely" outcome is not a "certain" outcome when teams are placed by number, i.e., 62 or 63, etc. A team can improve its calculated RPI but remain in the same numerical place in rankings because the actual RPI calculation is on relative basis compared to every other team's RPI and some teams' improvement might be greater than other teams' improvement such that one cannot say it is certain that any improvement in calculated RPI necessarily means an improvement in one's numerical ranking(place). Also, on any given day, a team's calculated RPI can go down but down less than the other teams and thereby an improvement in rank is possible..There is only one thing that determines one's ranking and that is the ***calculated RPI of every team.*** And every time any team plays a game, all other teams in Div. 1 have their RPI recalculated and the rankings are re-done and they often change for a good number of teams (many of whom didn't even play a game) even if only a very few teams actually play games on a given day. So Valpo's improvement is understandable and is not inconsistent with my argument. And Oakland's improvement was likely to occur given most of the teams that needed to win actually won. But they *could* have stayed the same in their rank while at the same time having an improved calculated RPI. A team's place is relative to every other team's new calculated RPI.

*** RPI = (WP * 0.25) + (OWP * 0.50) + (OOWP * 0.25)

where WP is Winning Percentage (adjusted for road/home/neutral floor),

OWP is Opponents' Winning Percentage (unadjusted) and

OOWP is Opponents' Opponents' Winning Percentage (unadjusted)

You know what would help everyone in the conference's RPI? Oakland not losing so many games out of conference. I'm glad you're watching your OOC RPI go down by a miniscule amount each night because of the 25% Opponent's Opponents calculation. Real happy for you. Destroy the RPI and SOS of every team in the conference so you guys can watch your OOC RPI decrease from 200 to 195 because of the magic RPI bunny.

[talksalot]

Wouldn't it be great if we all won our OOC games?... there's a word for that...(and Valpo went x-0 in HL)...   it's right on the tip of my tongue...    Kentucky.

[agibson]

There is always the argument that they're better than the 300 RPI set.  At least beating them doesn't -hurt- your RPI.

Wrong answer! I pointed out months ago that this is an unintended consequence of their flawed methodology and a slight adjustment could be of significant help to bottom D1 scheduling.

Maybe you could post a link? I don't remember the conversation, but it could be interesting.

[Kyle321n]

Here's a crazy theory. I'm sure one of the mods here could check it out and I might be  but is Just Sayin's IP address tracking from Michigan? Say somewhere outside of Detroit?

[wh]

Yep, don't anyone be fooled. Oakland doesn't give a damn about the impact they are having on the RPI's of other conference members. I was all for Oakland being invited to join the Horizon League, but I now think it was a huge mistake. Not only does their money grabbing approach to scheduling hurt the rest of the league, their horrendous OOC record makes it nearly impossible to build and sustain a loyal fan base, which in turn will make justifying a representative sized bb facility nearly impossible. They lied about the changes they were going to make. They are not good team players. All they are is takers.

[78crusader]

A lot more chatter today about bracketology and our seeding for the NCAAs rather than a tough game tonight against a talented Detroit team playing with nothing to lose on their Senior Night....

This is gonna be a tough game.  Hope our guys are ready.

Paul

[a3uge]

Yep, don't anyone be fooled. Oakland doesn't give a damn about the impact they are having on the RPI's of other conference members. I was all for Oakland being invited to join the Horizon League, but I now think it was a huge mistake. Not only does their money grabbing approach to scheduling hurt the rest of the league, their horrendous OOC record makes it nearly impossible to build and sustain a loyal fan base, which in turn will make justifying a representative sized bb facility nearly impossible. They lied about the changes they were going to make. They are not good team players. All they are is takers.

They do have persistent trolls though, I'll give them that.

[HC]

They need these money grabbing games so they can pay these trolls to post relentlessly on twitter and on opposing team fan boards about how a fourth place team should have the POY, 2 first teamers, and the defensive POY.

[bbtds]

Yep, don't anyone be fooled. Oakland doesn't give a damn about the impact they are having on the RPI's of other conference members. I was all for Oakland being invited to join the Horizon League, but I now think it was a huge mistake. Not only does their money grabbing approach to scheduling hurt the rest of the league, their horrendous OOC record makes it nearly impossible to build and sustain a loyal fan base, which in turn will make justifying a representative sized bb facility nearly impossible. They lied about the changes they were going to make. They are not good team players. All they are is takers.

I agree. After all you were "just sayin."

[oklahomamick]

There isnn't enough action on their forum....

[agibson]

13 seed?  We could work with a 13 seed.

[LaPorteAveApostle]

13 seed?  We could work with a 13 seed.

I would say it still depends on who below us gets in and bumps us up, but since last time we deserved a 13 and got a 14 for "geography"...i just don't know any more, man.

[talksalot]

Maybe we should ask Joe Lannardee... no... Leenurdy...  ESPN YOU NEED TO BE TAKEN OUT AND HAVE YOUR MOUTHS WASHED OUT WITH SOAP !

[historyman]

I was happy to see that the pbp guy had it correct by the second half. He sure did mispronounce Valparaiso multiple times in the first half. He mispronounced it so many times anybody playing bbtds' drinking game would have been drunk after 10 minutes through the first half. 

[valpotx]

If we win the HL tourney and get a 14 seed, the NCAA tourney is an absolute joke.  Montana being given that 13 seed instead of us was horrific.  Screw geography!

[agibson]

Harvard drops a game... that's probably god for us?

[historyman]

Harvard drops a game... that's probably god for us?

Don't forget that Harvard has a very well known divinity school. I think god is probably for them too.

You don't think Valpo would nickname themselves after a school that god was against, do you? The god-less Harvard of the midwest?

[covufan]

Maybe we should ask Joe Lannardee... no... Leenurdy...  ESPN YOU NEED TO BE TAKEN OUT AND HAVE YOUR MOUTHS WASHED OUT WITH SOAP !

speaking of leenurdy - does he have a face for radio or what?

[usc4valpo]

As of today... Valpo is a 13 seed facing Northern Iowa.  Of course, this change daily and who knows what will happen. Living in Des Moines, I think this would be an awesome matchup.

If (not when, the Horizon conference is competitive) Valpo wins the conference tournament, they will be a 13 seed and IMO deservedly so.  Honestly, I look at the other teams and I cannot make a case where should be a 12 seed. But who knows.

[usc4valpo]

Be cautious. As Valpo heads into the tournament and as many assume that they will win...

"There is no fool like a careless gambler who starts taking victory for granted."
Hunter S. Thompson

There's a lot of hoop to be played before March Madness guys.